2017 Arkle Trophy Chase

[Old Vic]

Time for its own thread I think...

Best Odds today

Altior (5)
Min (8)
Yorkhill (8)
Buveur Dair (12)
Top Notch (16)
Yanworth (16)
Identity Thief (20)
Politologue (20)
Blue Heron (22)
Dont Touch It (25)

and


Supasundae 33
Old Guard 33
Lac Fontana 33

[Kevloaf]

Absolutely.

Billymag has said he has heard that Altior goes the chasing route so that 5s will surely tumble?

Faugheen made a good case for Old Guard being over priced too....

I've been on the Min / Yorkhill (JLT) double no where near as confident now that Min will be better than Altior.

Buveur D'air definitely needs further and the Suede horses didn't perform at all last year in my opinion...

I hope we get a rematch from the Supreme!

[jono]

He's the fav and it's obvious but im really expecting Altior to be a monster over fences so hoping he can win this. Looks tailor made for chasing, jumped a bit big over hurdles and has a pretty handy trainer for the Race! Think we'll be looking back at the Supreme form as top quality a year down the line too. Think there's a very very good record of horses rated 160+ over hurdles that contest the Arkle too

This race has been a benefit race for a lot of years now so it would be nice to get a competitive race come March, ideally Yorkhill vs Altior however I can see Yorkhill going up in trip for the JLT. My early guess on some at the top of the market:

Altior - winner
Yorkhill - JLT. By presenting, his best form over 2m4 (Tolworth 2m but heavy), expected to be a Gold Cup horse
Buveur D'Air - think he'll be JP's Champion Hurdle horse. Fehily said best jumper he's sat on over hurdles
Yanworth - think he lacks the speed for 2m and he'll be kept hurdling for the World Hurdle and longer trips

Min is the other that surprisingly for a Mullins horse will be a little underrated. Hyped to the max for the Supreme but just found one too good on the day. Remember Mullins saying early on he was thought of as a chaser down the line, but heard a few people mention his lack of size and scope for a fence? Still 8/1 actually seems ok, considering if he becomes Ruby's ride on the Tuesday. The Yorkhill JLT double with him looks a worthy shout (key loaf)

Good mentions for Old Guard in the antepost thread, think that's the stand out long shot so far.

Can't think of many others that I'm too keen on right now. Charbel showed good form and ran well in the Supreme for a long way so he's another ill be keeping an eye on.

[Kevloaf]

Yeh I am in agreement with all of that. Anyone got an idea of how they'll shorten it up 'if' this becomes a clear target? Will they knock a couple of points off? I guess the 5's factors in the chance he doesn't run so what price do you think he is "with a run"? .... you can get 3/1 to win 'any' race though...

[jono]

Not sure they cut him that much. Maybe down to 4/1 I guess. I think whilst there's still the chance Yorkhill goes here then his odds won't tumble too dramatically

[Kevloaf]

Yeh I suppose so. I think 4s will be a great price if Altior is confirmed as going chasing, and the longer Yorkhill stays a contender (which will be until 2017 at least) they can't cut his price too much. In my opinion they avoiding Altior last year with Yorkhill and they'll be able to tell at home whether Yorkhill can beat Min... if he can easily they could be tempted by the big clash, but the likely option is the stay over the medium trip with Yorkhill where there isn't a super hurdler.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think it was more a case of Mullins separating Min and Yorkhill last season, rather than avoiding Altior.

[Istabraq]

They can't/won't shorten Altior massively, first season novice chasers need to prove their wellbeing, fitness and the ability to jump, Altior has done none yet and unlikely to do any for a few weeks yet so even if there is a target announcement I don't see much price changing.
Keep an eye on his Champion Hurdle price too.....

[mayo]

Gambling yard ( have I said this before).

[KingSprinterSacre]

Min is the other that surprisingly for a Mullins horse will be a little underrated. Hyped to the max for the Supreme but just found one too good on the day. Remember Mullins saying early on he was thought of as a chaser down the line, but heard a few people mention his lack of size and scope for a fence? Still 8/1 actually seems ok, considering if he becomes Ruby's ride on the Tuesday. The Yorkhill JLT double with him looks a worthy shout (key loaf)

.

Just further on Min - he picked up a tendon injury in the race and hasn't raced since so to pick up that sort of injury and still come 2nd to Altior is a top notch run imo. If he comes back fully fit he will be a big threat to all

[billymag]

KingSprinterSacre have you read that it was a tendon injury ive heard on the jungle drums that it was a breathing issue that they were trying to keep quiet

[Kevloaf]

I think it was more a case of Mullins separating Min and Yorkhill last season, rather than avoiding Altior.

I do think that they thought Yorkhill was better than Min though, and they decided to take on Yanworth rather than Altior.

If Altior does get confirmed for this, it might become quite cut up as they all start to avoid this race? Each way at 33's you might only end up with 6/7 in the race... Arkle isn't normally double figures is it? Not in my recent memory...

[Faugheen_Machine]

Since the introduction of the JLT the field sizes appear have reduced significantly. I haven't checked whether the stats actually back this up but I'd be surprised if they didn't.

[Istabraq]

Since the introduction of the JLT the field sizes appear have reduced significantly. I haven't checked whether the stats actually back this up but I'd be surprised if they didn't.

Very true, but the fact you've also had several real shorties who frighten away much of the opp hasn't helped.
Sprinter, Simonsig, Douvan, UDS, probably all ran in fields of 6 or 7...

[paz247]

Think Simonsig faced 15, think the others were 7s and a 10