So what happened? Why didn’t Camelot win?
In considering your answer, a couple of things to bear in mind:
1. The sedate pace was as crucial as it was surprising. All week, John Gosden was saying that he was going to run two horses and the pacemaker Dartford, in order to ensure that there was a strong pace, which would suit his other two horses and which would test Camelot’s stamina. There was a milli-second (on Wednesday afternoon, I think it was) when I thought, it’s not like Gosden to be declaring his hand so openly and so willingly, but I thought no more of it. As it happened, Dartford set a sedate pace, stacked them up in behind, and that was to the theoretical advantage of another Gosden horse Thought Worthy, who raced handily and tried to win the race by going for home off a slow pace from the top of the home straight, just as he had done in the Great Voltigeur.
2. Aidan O’Brien said immediately after the race that he should have run a pacemaker or two, just to ensure that there would have been a solid even pace, that he shouldn’t have relied on somebody else to do it.
3. After any favourite gets beaten, after any horse gets beaten, by a relatively narrow margin, you can almost always look back on the race and say, if the rider had done this instead of that, if he had kicked earlier or later than he did, or gone outside instead of inside, or gone inside instead of outside, or if he had sat still for another three strides, then he might have won. That’s the beauty of hindsight and race recordings. A rider operates in the split-second here and now.
4. Remember that the main concern surrounding Camelot before the race was about his stamina for a mile and six and a half furlongs. He was never going to be done for pace. Johnny Murtagh said on the Morning Line that if they didn’t set a fast pace, they might as well give the St Leger cap to Joseph O’Brien there and then.
5. With that in mind, Joseph really didn’t do much wrong. Perhaps, because of the sedate pace, he might have tried to angle out early in the home straight in order to open up his options, but his path to the outside was blocked by Michelangelo and, even if he had got out, he would have conceded ground and energy. If he had moved to the outside and then been beaten through a lack of stamina, he could legitimately have been criticised for leaving the rail and not pursuing the ground-saving route.
6. In staying towards the inside, he chose the brave route, but the brave route is the most efficient route when the gap opens and, as it happened, the gap did open.
7. Camelot was able to angle out at the two-furlong pole, plenty early enough. By then, Encke had produced a momentum-fuelled move down the outside, but even at that point, you still expected Camelot to unleash his trademark turn of foot and cut him down. The fact that the favourite traded at 1/5 at that point tells you that the market expected that as well. As it happened, it took him a stride or two to engage top gear and, even when he did, his progress was gradual, not instant.
8. Perhaps that was because of the early sedate pace, perhaps it was because of the extended trip, perhaps it was because of the unusually fast ground. Or perhaps it was because Encke is better than we thought. The turn of foot that the Kingmambo colt showed in the hottest part of the race was really impressive, and it was enough to set up a race-winning advantage. If the Godolphin horse hadn’t been in the race, Camelot would have won it by three lengths.
Shame that we didn’t get the history-making, 42-year-gap-bridging victory that we craved, but that’s racing for you.
The debate goes on.