Kentucky Derby 2012

[mayo]

What times is this on at in Ireland ? Do ATR show it ?


Favourites: Bodemeister (5) , Union Rags (5) , Dullahan (8) , Gemologist (8) , Creative Cause (12) , Ill Have Another (14) , Take Charge Indy (14) , Alpha (16) , Hansen (16) , Daddy Nose Best (20) , El Padrino (20) , Daddy Long Legs (25) , Went The Day Well (25) , Prospective (40) , Sabercat (40) , Done Talking (50) , My Adonis (50) , Optimizer (50) , Rousing Sermon (50) , Trinniberg (50) - Others 66 or more

[Forced Kin]

Fairytales at Churchill Downs

After the drama of the 2000 Guineas has unfolded on Saturday, racing fans could do much worse than settle in for the evening and tune into the Kentucky Derby on RUK. Dirt racing in America may not be to everyone’s taste, but European racing could learn a thing or two from the Americans when it comes to selling racing to the general public. Each and every year, the Americans will find at least one human interest story amongst the runners for the Run For The Roses that will draw in even the hardest of hearts.
It is on Racing UK anyway ....from Blakes Blog on Irish field


I suspect that the main candidate for a fairytale success this year will be Union Rags and if you have 25 minutes to spare, type “Union Rags: An American Love Story (Full Version)” into Youtube (or click here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DP3hJ7d6uQ0) to get a taste for the incredible storytelling ability that the American racing media has. Though, those with experience of the inner workings of the bloodstock scene will no doubt smile wryly at the “happy coincidence” of the colt being repurchased for precisely the limit that the owner had told her agent to bid up to... Thanks to Graham Cunningham of RUK for highlighting this video on Twitter.

[Lester]

Fatjockey Kentucky Derby Odds and Video News

[flatman]

Favorites for 2012 Kentucky Derby

1. BODEMEISTER (Post Position 6 - Morning Line Odds 4/1): As expected, Bodemeister was officially installed as the morning line favorite for Saturday's Kentucky Derby. The Bob Baffert trained horse will have Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith aboard. His connections are satisfied with the post draw which should allow the speedy colt to set a brisk early pace. Bodemeister's stock shot up drastically after a dominating performance in the Arkansas Derby, winning over stablemate Secret Circle by a whopping 9 lengths. Heading into the race there were questions about his ability to handle the Kentucky Derby distance of a mile and a quarter - consider those questions answered. The positives with Bodemeister are obvious - he has three triple digit Beyer Speed Figures with the most recent being the scorching 108 in the Arkansas Derby. No other horse in the field has more than one tripe digit Beyer. The negative - he'll have to literally rewrite horse racing history. Bodemeister didn't race as a two year old and were he to win the 'Run for the Roses' he'd become the first horse in the 130 year history of the Kentucky Derby not to do so. Despite this overwhelming weight of precedent there's quite a few horse racing experts that think he can do it.

2. UNION RAGS (Post Position 4 - Morning Line Odds 9/2): Union Rags the second favorite entry on Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Bataglia's morning line. Until recently he was a strong choice of most horse racing experts as well. That was before what is largely regarded as a disastrous run in the Florida Derby on March 31. The race was supposed to be a 'coronation' of Union Rags as the horse to beat in the Kentucky Derby and his betting odds of 2-5 definitely reflected that. Unfortunately it didn't work out that way - the race didn't 'break' in his favor and he got a rare bad ride from jockey Julien Leparoux and Union Rags was upset by Take Charge Indy.
The significance of Union Rags' Florida Derby performance is now one of the most hotly debated topics in horse racing. There is a growing sentiment among the cognoscenti that Union Rags was merely the victim of a bad trip and poor ride and his failure to win did nothing to downgrade his status as Kentucky Derby favorite. He's turned in one workout since his Florida Derby setback - a respectable though not stunning time. Trainer Michael Matz was satisfied with Union Rags' post draw and expects his colt to join favorite Bodemesiter in setting a brisk pace from the start.

3. GEMOLOGIST: (Post Position 15 - Morning Line Odds 6/1): The Todd Pletcher trained Gemologist is becoming something of a 'trendy' pick for the Kentucky Derby following a hard fought victory in the Wood Memorial. He's now the third choice on the Kentucky Derby morning line behind co-favorites Bodemesiter and Union Rags. Gemologist is considered a 'charismatic' horse by experts - not surprising given how many other similarities exist between him and his sire, Tiznow. On the upside, it certainly looks like he has the conditioning to go a mile and a quarter in the Derby. One of the few downsides, however, is the recent legacy of Wood Memorial winners in the Kentucky Derby. None of the previous three Wood winners have made the start on the first Saturday in May. The last horse to run in the Wood and win the Derby was Funny Cide in 2003 and Wood Memorial winners have fared even worse - there have only been two Wood Memorial winners in the past thirty one years to go on and win the Kentucky Derby (Pleasant Colony in 1981 and Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000). Trainer Pletcher has observed a tendency that he has to 'wait for challengers' when he gets the lead instead of extending his advantage. This could be his undoing in a strong Kentucky Derby field certain to have a few strong closers in the mix. Note that there will be a jockey change for Gemologist in the Derby - he'll have Javier Castellano aboard. Todd Pletcher said before the race that he hoped Gemologist would draw an outside position so he has to be relatively satisfied.

4. HANSEN (Post Position 14 - Morning Line Odds 10/1): Hansen's stock has dropped precipitously in the past month though his 10/1 morning line price is definitely more favorable than the 14/1 he had been bet down to in the Wynn Las Vegas futures market. The beautiful white colt, eponymously named for owner Dr. Kendall Hansen, hasn't done anything wrong along the Derby trail and is capably ridden by Ramon Dominguez. On the other hand, his critics suggest he hasn't done anything to distinguish himself either and think he might be more 'style' than 'substance'. Hansen's last victory was a solid win over an undistinguished field in the Gotham. Set a brisk pace in the Blue Grass Stakes but had nothing left at the end as winner Dullihan ran him down like he was standing still. Worth noting that the Blue Grass hasn't been a great prep race for Derby winners. Street Sense in 2007 was the last horse to run in the Blue Grass and win the Kentucky Derby. The last horse to win both races was Strike The Gold in 1981. Still, the consensus take on his Blue Grass Stakes performance is serious concern that he may not have the ability to handle the Kentucky Derby distance of a mile and a quarter. Hansen's owner said after the post draw that he had 'hoped for' the 14 slot.

5. CREATIVE CAUSE (Post Position 8 - Morning Line Odds 12/1): Coming off a second place by a nose finish in the Santa Anita Derby, Creative Cause remains something of an 'under the radar' contender for the Kentucky Derby. Opened at 12/1 in the morning line odds - the same price he had been getting recently in the Wynn Las Vegas futures betting.. Most horse racing handicappers consider him a solid choice, pointing to his continuous improvement along the Derby prep trail. He's got a strong racing foundation and looks to have the endurance to go a mile and a quarter. Could be a good value on race day - a quality horse who might just not be getting the publicity he deserves. With a first rate jockey in Joel Rosario aboard, Creative Cause will likely be bet down before post time. A win would be a great 'feel good story' as trainer Mike Harrington has a horse in the Kentucky Derby for the first time at age 71.
6. ALPHA (Post Position 8 - Morning Line Odds 15/1) Alpha solidified himself as a legitimate Derby candidate with his prep race performance. That being said, however, he certainly looks to be qualitatively a cut below the aforementioned Creative Cause, let alone the favorites in this race. Priced at 12/1 in the latest Wynn Las Vegas futures betting and his morning line price of 15/1 could be higher on Saturday. Gemologist beat him by a neck in the Wood Memorial, but despite running his best race demonstrated some serious liabilities. He started poorly and had to recover after the first turn to get back in the race. Took a nice run at Gemologist but had nothing for him - a concern given Todd Pletcher's concern about his horse's tendency to 'wait for the field to catch up with him'. Our take on his prospects hasn't changed--he's a closer that is in against better closers in the Kentucky Derby.

7. TAKE CHARGE INDY (Post Position 3 - Morning Line Odds 15-1): Everyone has heard of his sire, AP Indy. Take Charge Indy vaulted into the Derby conversation with his upset victory over Union Rags in the Florida Derby. As a result, his stock has improved to the point where he was an 18/1 choice in the Wynn Las Vegas Kentucky Derby betting. Shorter morning line odds likely reflects an effort to 'shade' the price to compensate for jockey Borel's well known reputation at Churchill Downs. As noted above, his Florida Derby triumph was a race that Union Rags lost due to a poor ride and a bad trip more than anything that Take Charge Indy did right. He's essentially in the same boat as Alpha - he's going to be a speed horse in a field that he can't run away from on Derby day. Best thing going for him will likely be his jockey - Calvin Borel was aboard for the Florida Derby win and he's a three time Kentucky Derby winner. Few can get around the Churchill Downs track like Borel but he'll need to have the race develop just right to have a shot. If the price is right on Derby day could be worth a shot alone or in exotics but it's not like the public isn't aware of Borel's ability at Churchill. Likely will be getting a lower price at post time and almost certainly represents an underlay.

8. I'LL HAVE ANOTHER (Post Position 19 - Morning Line Odds 12/1): Stock has slipped somewhat and was priced as high as 16/1 at Wynn Las Vegas's futures betting but has become a hotter commodity since arriving in Kentucky. His relative lack of popularity early was more of a function of what the other horses have done right more than anything he's done wrong. Has only run one bad race in his career - a sixth place finish in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga as a two year old. That was run on a very sloppy track, but for some reason it has come to define his career despite considerable success since. Won the Santa Anita Derby by a nose and in the process turned in a time of 1:47 4/5 over the 1 1/8 mile. That's the fastest winning time in that race since Point Given in 2001 - and he went on to win two of the three legs of the Triple Crown (Preakness, Belmont). Some handicappers worry that he might bounce off a strong race at Santa Anita which would peg him for a 'down' day at the Kentucky Derby. Ultimately, he's a horse that just isn't capturing the imagination of the racing public - one writer called him the 'Rodney Dangerfield of horse racing' since like the late comedian he 'gets no respect'. Morning line price seems particularly optimistic given his #19 starting slot - no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from this post position.

[flatman]

9. EL PADRINO (Post Position 16 - Morning Line Odds 20/1): If I'll Have Another is seeing his stock rise as the Derby draws near the opposite could be said about El Padrino. Much of the early support for El Padrino was based on his connections, particularly trainer Todd Pletcher. Unfortunately, his most recent performance in the Florida Derby was disappointing. He was forced wide and never really recovered, eventually finishing 4th three lengths behind the winner. There was some speculation that El Padrino might not even be entered in the Kentucky Derby since Pletcher also has a top contender in Gemologist. Before the post draw Pletcher told the media he hoped to get an inside starting slot for El Padrino and that didn't happen. After being forced wide in his last race his starting slot doesn't bode well here. Tough to envision a scenario in which he wins and if something completely unforeseen happens we'd rather hold a ticket on a higher priced horse. Presence of jockey Rafael Bejarano definitely helps his cause.
10. WENT THE DAY WELL (Post Position 13 - Morning Line Odds 20/1): Trained by the respected Graham Motion, Went The Day Well is coming off a victory in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park. Considered to be behind the other contenders in terms of in-rare preparation. Could benefit from bad weather - ran in the rain in his most recent workout and didn't exhibit any problems with the elements or a sloppy track. 20/1 price seems right - and maybe too generous--but if we see a replay of the 2010 race with bad weather and an off track he could be a good 'mudder' play. With the weather typical of summertime in the Southeast - hot, muggy and a persistent risk of thunderstorms - he could catch a break from 'Mother Nature'. The problem then becomes that his reputation as a good horse on an off-track is well known and he'll be overbet. At this point his price isn't high enough to warrant a speculative play.

11. DADDY LONG LEGS (Post Position 1 - Morning Line Odds 30/1): The Breeders' Cup Juvenile has become a very important yardstick by which to measure early Kentucky Derby contenders - not surprising since the race attracts the best two year olds in the sport. Last year, for example, Hansen, Union Rags and Creative Cause finished 1-2-3 in the BC Juvenile. European shipper Daddy Long Legs finished next to last. He vaulted back into the mix for the 'Run for the Roses' by winning the UAE Derby in Dubai earlier this year. Trained by Aiden O'Brian, it's hard to tell whether Daddy Long Legs underachieved in the BC Juvi or overachieved in the UAE Derby. Two serious strikes against him - his only career start on dirt was the dismal Breeders' Cup effort at Churchill Downs where he turned in a 60 Beyer rating and the brutal start position on the rail. Only one horse since 1963 has won the Kentucky Derby from the #1 post position (Ferdinand in 1986) and there's little to suggest that this is the entry to get it done.

12. Optimizer (Post Position 2 - Morning Line Odds 50/1): other than a good trainer in d. Wayne Lukas there's little to recommend about Optimizer. Only win is his maiden race at Saratoga against a forgettable class. Best finish since then was a second place performance in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. He cashed a nice 'place' ticket at 28/1 but followed that up with a brutal showing in the Arkansas Derby finishing 9th. This was the race that vaulted Bodemeister to 'favorite' status and Optimizer was barely in the same zip code finishing 20 lengths behind the winner. Barely made the field and did so only due to withdrawals by horses with higher graded stakes winnings. Given the way he tired on the 1 1/8 mile in Arkansas hard to see him hitting the board in the Kentucky Derby.

13. DULLAHAN (Post Position 5 - Morning Line Odds 8/1): There was a lot to like about the Dale Romans trained colt Dullahan before the post position draw and the fact that there have been 12 Derby winners since 1900 to start from the #5 slot only makes him that much more attractive. Good connections and a solid jockey up top in Kent Desormeaux. Now the bad news - may have peaked early beating Hansen in the Bluegrass Stakes. Best performances have been on turf and poly surfaces, though he hasn't embarrassed himself in his dirt efforts. Could be worth a shot at a longer price but could still be overbet from here.

14. ROUSING SERMON (Post Position 7 - Morning Line Odds 50/1): More downside than upside with this Jerry Hollendorfer trained entry. Only two wins in nine career starts - both against California breds - suggests that he's out of his league qualitatively. Tendency to let other horses set the pace makes him all the more problematic as a betting proposition - he'll likely get overrun by superior speed early and doesn't have the class to hang with the closers late. The race would have to play out very strangely for Rousing Sermon to factor.

15. TRINNIBERG (Post Position 9 - Morning Line Odds 50/1): Trained by Bisnath Parboo, this horse will likely be outclassed as his price would suggest. Has some speed (career best Beyer of 99) but nothing in his resume suggests that he'll have anything for the class of the field. Never raced more than 7 furlongs (the 1 ¼ mile distance of the Kentucky Derby equals 10 furlongs). On the off chance he can hang with horses like Bodemeister early there's only a negligible chance that he'll have anything left for the stretch. Mike Watchmaker of the Daily Racing Form quipped that Trinniberg's best chance of making the distance is in the back of a van.

16. DADDY NOSE BEST (Post Position 10 - Morning Line Odds 15/1): Has become something of a trendy 'sleeper' choice. The Steve Asmussen trained colt started his career on turf and the results were nothing special. Since he was taken off the dirt earlier this year he has two wins in two races on synthetic and dirt tracks. Coming off a win in the Sunland Derby on dirt posting a 100 Beyer in the process. The secret may be out on this horse and he could be overbet.

17. PROSPECTIVE (Post Position 12 - Morning Line Odds 30/1): Has the dubious distinction of being the only horse beaten by Daddy Long Legs in the BC Juvenile. Had a decent prep campaign with a win in the Grade 2 Tampa Derby but was a non factor in the Bluegrass. Qualitatively probably a cut above the other long shots in the field but still a cut below the legitimate contenders.

18. DONE TALKING (Post Position 17 - Morning Line Odds 50/1): For a 50/1 shot Done Talking at least has some potential. Ran poorly in the Gotham Stakes but won the Illinois Derby - a race that developed very strangely with most of the field all but stopping in their tracks on the stretch. Has been improving throughout his career but will have to make a big jump to an elite level to be a factor here. He at least has the advantage of being a closer and could be there at the end but unless he's been keeping something 'under the hood' hard to see him running down the class of this field. Likely the best of the longshots.

19. SABERCAT (Post Position 18 - Morning Line Odds 30/1): Could be a 'late bloomer'. Got off to a good start as a 2 year old but has underachieved since. Best finish as a three year old was a third place in the Arkansas Derby - a result that sounds better than it really was as he was ten lengths behind Bodemeister and not a factor. Good trainer in Steve Asmussen and fundamentally not a bad horse but hard to see Sabercat doing anything against a field of this class.

20. LIASON (Post Position 20 - Morning Line Odds 50/1): Solid connections with Bob Baffert training and Martin Garcia riding. Even factoring in the brutal start position on the outside rail from the auxiliary gate the fact that Liason is priced at 50/1 with Baffert training speaks volumes. Very unimpressive in three outings this year at Santa Anita. Very small chance he could respond to the change in track.

from kentucky derbyonline ...

[Yeehaa]

union rags gets there in the end ....



Trainer Michael Matz insisted Union Rags had always possessed star quality after the colt claimed the Belmont Stakes.

Although the race was greatly diminished by the withdrawal of Triple Crown aspirant I'll Have Another, New York racegoers were still treated to a blockbuster finish.

Union Rags, ridden by John Velazquez, came fast and late in the

$1million heat to deny Paynter by a short neck.

Matz said: "We always thought this horse had Triple Crown potential.

"When we trained him, we gave him four races as two-year-old and gave him a rest and had a good plan.

"He never missed a beat. His first race (this year) couldn't have been any easier. He had trouble in his second race and his third race.

"I do really think that this horse, when he has a clean trip and can show himself, is one of the best three-year-olds in this crop.

"Whether he could have done something against I'll Have Another, I don't know, but it sure would have been fun to see."