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2017 Champion Hurdle

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  • Apple's jade worst run of last season was at Cheltenham - I know Willie said,he should have done more but I will be against her wherever she runs.

    Last year's festival form has got to be key to this race - JP has the best of it with the runners up from champion, supreme and Neptune. I don't really like yanworth - but he has the best form and on tracks that shouldn't have suited imo.

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    • Originally posted by mayo View Post
      Apple's jade worst run of last season was at Cheltenham - I know Willie said,he should have done more but I will be against her wherever she runs.

      Last year's festival form has got to be key to this race - JP has the best of it with the runners up from champion, supreme and Neptune. I don't really like yanworth - but he has the best form and on tracks that shouldn't have suited imo.
      It wasn't a bad run though Mayo - finishing 2nd in a triumph.

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      • Originally posted by loveracing View Post
        Not what I was told today. But who knows?

        Ive already backed her numb, but based on the above, the bet I took was Limini 4/1 for the Mares.
        I have got WAY too much on AJ for the CH .... if I get a run for my money and can lay off my stake back I would be over the moon!

        Backed her at 10s, 16s and 25s at different stages of the season. Had written everything off

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        • Originally posted by mayo View Post
          Apple's jade worst run of last season was at Cheltenham - I know Willie said,he should have done more but I will be against her wherever she runs.

          Last year's festival form has got to be key to this race - JP has the best of it with the runners up from champion, supreme and Neptune. I don't really like yanworth - but he has the best form and on tracks that shouldn't have suited imo.
          Didn't she try to nearly make all and had some good horses in behind?

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          • Almost everything i've seen from Yanworth this year suggests he can't win and he needs to be going down the stayers route. His jumping is too sketchy at 2 miles and he never really makes up any lengths at each jump. He doesn't possess a turn of foot that you'd like to see in a Champion Hurdler either. All of that suggests he'll be losing ground when jumping throughout the race and then when they kick on at the turn for home he'll be outpaced and too far back. However he has a high cruising speed that means that he can get by with jumping mistakes and make up the ground inbetween and even when he has shown to lack that turn of foot (Kempton) he's still been within distance to then grind them down and get his head in front and if the horse is only a length or two behind at the last then I think he'd be able to outbattle anyone in the field to win.

            An above average renewal i'd dismiss him completely but we don't have that this year. The problem is the same applies to a lot in the field!

            Push comes to shove I keep coming back down to Buveur D'Air. He looks the best jumper in the field for me. I am slightly wary of his run last time out. It was a very classy ride from Geraghty with minimal effort to just cruise past Rayvin Black after the last but I do wonder why such tactics? It was BG's first ride on the horse so maybe he was just getting a feel for the horse and all his hurdle runs have had him held back but in the back of my mind I wonder whether he had concerns on what the horse would find when then in front. If that is the case the worry would be someone like Yanworth could grind him down.

            Worth noting that Ch'tibello has raced against most of the English challengers now and fared well beating MTOY's, 3.5 lengths back from Yanworth and The New One and then beating Sceau Royal yesterday, 1 length behind Yanworth. Skelton has insisted that Superb Story is his best hope in the race and is quite bullish he can pick up a place. I get the feeling he may have been sending Ch'tibello out as a bit of a sighter in where Superb Story stands.

            Have to say I was suprised that Yanworth is odds on for Geraghty to ride - i'd have imagined Buveur D'Air would be his pick now.

            It's hard to red the form and come to a solid conclusion. I'm keen to side with the Supreme form from last year and I think he's the classiest horse in the race and the best jumper too. Said to be the fastest horse in the yard (even more so than Altior), I can see a similar finish to last years Neptune - BD (as Yorkhill did) will have the speed to kick on by 3-4 lengths coming to the last and that'll be too much for Yanworth to reel in.

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            • Originally posted by loveracing View Post
              Apples Jade for me.
              I have noticed a change of attitude from Elliott in regards to her targets when recently asked. For much of the season it was categorically going for the Mares races, now it's let's wait and see.

              If either she or VVM run in this (i'm on the basis they don't and they run against eachother in the Mares) then the 7lb allowance could make all the difference

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              • I wouldn't make any money if Yanworth won the CH but I am certainly worried about him. I do like the way that even though he was off the bridle he did put a good biut of distance between himself and TNO at Kempton and yesterday at the 1/2 furlong pole he was with Chtbello and by the line he has gone on and BG has stopped riding him.

                It is interesting that Yanworth did all of his winning on the bridle last year, and is much more used to being in a battle now. With the CH being run at a stronger pace, I think his cruising speed will be essential and is a tool that some of the other contenders don't have. He doesn't have the turn of foot in the sense that he can just flick a switch, but he does seem to have the gears to move away from whatever he is upsides after the last?

                If Petit Mouchoir makes the running, you can see Yanworth being ridden very prominantly and I think Buveur may look like he is going to come past him and not manage it.

                I still haven't got a strong fancy, and do keep finding myself drawn to Buveur BUT I am put off by how battle hardened he may be? If he isn't (which I've seen little to no evidence for) then he'd need to be different class to these, and 3rd in that supreme doesn't give him that status. If last year Yanworth, Yorkhill, Altior, Min and Buveur D'air had all gone for the Supreme, that Buveur D'air wouldn't have been 5th? Doesn't mean he should be ruled out by any means but I don't think he is a worthy fav based on a bridle victory. You would HAVE to have Petit Mouchoir right there in the mix if you like Buveur D'air...

                ... Petit Mouchior is very closely matched from Aintree with Buveur, and has had a much much much better prep this time round, picking up two grade 1s. You can knock the form, but you can with all of the other horses... I feel like PM is not a sexy pick, whereas the JP colours are and if I hadn't already, I think I'd come down on Yanworth and PM before I backed Buveur D'air.

                Interesting comments regarding Superb Story jono, and I do like the logic behind it. If SKelton feels SS is a better horse than Chit, 16s NRNB is over priced for SS< especially with as a previous festival winner.


                I'm trying to seperate my personal book and who I think will win the race seperate for the time-being for the purpose of the discussion... when I work out who is going to win, I can adjust accordingly

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                • If Petit Mouchoir makes the running, you can see Yanworth being ridden very prominantly and I think Buveur may look like he is going to come past him and not manage it.
                  That certainly wouldn't surprise me. Buveur i'm sure will look like he's cruising through the race with Barry motionless on the horse but it's what he can product when push comes to shove that we just don't really know and again makes me question why such a ride last time. Will Geraghty's choice on who to ride on the day effect your personal view?

                  You would HAVE to have Petit Mouchoir right there in the mix if you like Buveur D'air... I feel like PM is not a sexy pick, whereas the JP colours are and if I hadn't already
                  Without me purposely doing it you're probably right in regards to Geraghty/JP Colours are swaying me to at least look towards Buveur more so than Petit Mouchoir. I can't quite give solid reasoning to why I don't fancy the horse but I just have my doubts. Like you say 2 grade 1 wins in key trials is hard to knock, especially the 7 length beating of NC in December. I do think the Irish challenge is weaker than the English overall in the race. He has however had the benefit of coming over here for the Fighting Fifth and If you were to literally take Sceau Royal being 6 lengths back in 4th (PM led at the last so would have been close to Irving) it could read better than yesterdays 2.5L by Yanworth.

                  It's more just a hunch on PM and I could very well be wrong. I have to give him the benefit of more than 1 run at the track but he didn't seem to act at the track in the Supreme last year imo and I question whether an undulating track like Cheltenham suits, instead more of a galloping/flat track ala Aintree/Leopardstown

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                  • Yeah I agree with you, it makes Buveur D'Air's last run odd.

                    I think Barry will be leaving the decision as late as he possibly can, and it'll be ground dependant? (and fitness of Yanworth?) I'd say good ground Yanworth, soft ground Buveur D'air..... "good to soft" officially I think Yanworth still. *edit, although Yanworth is probably better on soft?) He knows him in a battle, has ridden him more times and knows he stays further. Barry was the benefactor when AP picked MTOY and I don't think that'll be lost on Barry or the market... I can certainly see JP having the 1st and 2nd fav on the day. (Yanworth to shorten to fav, BDA to stay where he is)

                    There might be some logic to not liking PM, trainer and owners are not at all well known for targetting the race and his Supreme run last year would have you worrying (as you eluded to). I am a fan of Nichols Canyon and PM has won key trials in Ireland. When Dodging Bullets was doing that (winning key trials), he ended up winning the CC much to my shock and since then I've always tried to take stop making excuses about why a horse was "lucky" or didn't deserve a grade 1 and work the other way, trying to see why the others can reach that level?

                    I couldn't tell you now what I would back if the race was today. I see the logic in people having flyers at big prices when that is the case for sure. Horses that have "been there and done it" and so on... MTOY is getting mentions for example. I expect something to be younger and improving past him, so I wouldn't have him on my shortlist, but at big prices you can't knock anyone can you.

                    I am not keen on Brain Power still, but I haven't got anything logical backing that up either... other than he now looks "too short" which is a terrible reason not to fancy a horse to win (albeit a decent enough reason to think it isn't worth a bet).
                    Last edited by Kevloaf; 19 February 2017, 03:02 PM.

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                    • Talk of Sutton Place being supplemented for this if he wins well today.

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                      • My worry for yanworth is his jumping. The CH will be a fast pace as usual. I can see yanworth to far back with his poor jumping having to get through tired horses up the hill. He'll then be classed as an unlucky loser.

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                        • Originally posted by doctorwu View Post
                          My worry for yanworth is his jumping. The CH will be a fast pace as usual. I can see yanworth to far back with his poor jumping having to get through tired horses up the hill. He'll then be classed as an unlucky loser.
                          Can't disagree... certainly isn't a positive. I am not sure I have seen him actually lose much ground at his hurdles though? Very hard to gauge. Despite yesterday I feel myself warming to him as the most likely winner.

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                          • Sutton Place

                            [QUOTE=Talk of Sutton Place being supplemented for this if he wins well today.[/QUOTE]

                            When asked if he could be supplemented for one of the races in Cheltenham, Elliott added: "No, definitely not."

                            From Sporting Life.

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                            • Originally posted by MrMcGoldrick View Post
                              Talk of Sutton Place being supplemented for this if he wins well today.
                              When asked if he could be supplemented for one of the races in Cheltenham, Elliott added: "No, definitely not."

                              From Sporting Life.

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                              • MAybe saved for JP at Aintree, had absolutely no trouble with the trip. Best work at the end?

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