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1.30 Dell Arca 16/1 - Fell early in the Coral Cup, so will be no bounce factor. Should go well as long as he's over the fall.
2.50 Ainsi Fideles 9/1 - Skipped Cheltenham because he doesn't like the track.
3.25 Al Ferof 6/1 - Goes well fresh and the flying Nichols factor.
LAST year I suggested backing Standing Ovation to win the Crabbie’s Topham Chase and he was last and well behind when hampered and brought down at the Canal Turn. I’ve watched that race over and over and have come to the conclusion it was just an off-day for the horse and that he might be able to make amends 12 months on (4.05).
On his day Standing Ovation has a touch of class and he ran really well at the Cheltenham Festival last month when finding 3m2f too far. This 2m5½f trip is perfect for him and if the blinkers sharpen
up David Pipe’s gelding just a bit, he is likely to prove the best-handicapped horse in the race.
Pipe’s team have a shorter-priced runner in the line-up in Monetaire, but anyone who saw him crash through half the fences at Cheltenham on his debut for the stable in November wouldn’t have him down as an Aintree type.
To be fair he jumped a lot better at the festival last time but his hold-up style of racing is going to make life extremely difficult for his jockey Tom Scudamore.
With the Paul Nicholls team in such tremendous form I also have to suggest backing Ruben Cotter at 12-1.
Nicholls-trained runners have a brilliant record over these big fences – as witnessed by the tremendous effort by Pacha Du Polder in the Fox Hunters’ yesterday, and Ruben Cotter has been earmarked for this race for some time.
He returned from a long layoff to run out an easy winner at Kempton last month despite the way he drifted in the market strongly suggesting he would need the race.
This contest has been his target and it’s anyone’s guess how good he might be now the champion trainer has got him back in rude health.
Talking of horses who could be anything – how good has Minella Rocco looked on his two starts? He has barely come off the bridle, but this is a totally different test on much faster ground over a longer trip.
He might easily still be too good in the Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (4.40), but the form horse is undoubtedly Vyta Du Roc. However, a few of Nicky Henderson’s, most notably Hargam, still appear to be feeling their hard races at Cheltenham and Vyta Du Roc is a shortish price if you take that into account.
At 18-1 the value lies with Alpha Des Obeaux, who chased home Douvan last time. Although he was easily put in his place by the smart winner, the race was over 2m on soft ground.
Three miles on a decent surface is exactly what Alpha Des Obeaux wants and his trainer Mouse Morris bounced right back to form when sending out a couple of long-priced runners to make the frame in the Irish National on Monday.
The feature race of the day is the Melling Chase and, bar Uxizandre, all the top 2m/2m4f chasers seem to be running. Champagne Fever has been a bit disappointing over fences given his CV in bumpers and over hurdles, but he is still a high-class chaser on his day and I can see him proving hard to beat.
Having said that, he takes on Don Cossack, a potentially rejuvenated Al Ferof and a former Champion Chase winner in Sire De Grugy. Any of them could win and I wouldn’t rule out Balder Succes either.
Taking on Paul Nicholls is a dangerous game and with a clear round his Saphir Du Rheu will probably win the Betfred Mildmay Novices’ Chase (2.50). The problem is he has come down twice on three attempts over fences and I would rather back Irish Cavalier, who was really impressive at Cheltenham.
The step up to 3m1f is going to bring about more improvement from Rebecca Curtis’s gelding and I can easily see him handling the step up into top company.
Advice
Irish Cavalier
2.50 Aintree
1pt win at 11-1 with bet365 (10-1 generally)
Ruben Cotter
4.05 Aintree
1pt win at 12-1 with Betway (11-1 generally)
Standing Ovation
4.05 Aintree
1pt win at 20-1 generally
Alpha Des Obeaux
4.40 Cheltenham
1pt win at 18-1 with bet365 (16-1 generally)
Also added Up To Something at 50's ew and The Saint James at 5's ew.
Up To Something was on my radar but forgot to look again...
He got a mention in the value betting column
At a much bigger price I was tempted by the 50/1 available on Up To Something, who was going well just behind the leaders when taking an innocuous fall in Poole Master’s Grand Sefton.
He could be very well handicapped off 132 now – he was rated 140 not long ago – and Charlie Longsdon applies a first-time hood and the services of Denis O’Regan in a bid to revive his fortunes.
However, it’s an awful long time since he finished a race off with any sort of competence and on this occasion I’ll resist the dangling carrot. Instead of splitting stakes on two selections I would rather have an each-way bet on Standing Ovation, who really does look to have a good chance at the price.
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