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Red Rum Handicap Chase 2015

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  • Red Rum Handicap Chase 2015

    First mention

    Ian McClean

    The Grand Annual is frequently a significant feeder into the Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree and this year it may pay to look no further than Turn Over Sivola. For a horse whose ideal conditions constitute a flat track on good ground he was granted neither by 5.15 on the Friday at Cheltenham and, not surprisingly, started an unflattering 33/1.

    Yet in spite of the conditions, and at least two serious mistakes in probably the most competitive two-mile handicap chase on the calendar, he managed to stay on into fifth, beaten just over seven lengths. Desperately unlucky in the Red Rum last year, when the winner got first run, Alan King's charge will return to Liverpool with an irresistible chance for revenge off just a 5lbs higher mark.

  • #2
    FORM HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
    57F732 Arnaud42 7 C Byrnes 83 148
    84720 Astracad27 9 Nigel Twiston-Davies 132 133 140
    -12213 Baby Mix474 7 Warren Greatrex 135
    1-4930 Bellenos27 7 Dan Skelton 135 113 147
    33-402 Claret Cloak159 8 Emma Lavelle 153 123 156
    336133 Croco Bay27 8 Ben Case 151 138 161
    129123 Darwins Fox48F 9 Henry De Bromhead -1
    5P-114 Definite Dream47 8 Evan Williams 130 97 131
    2-4584 Desert Cry12 9 Donald McCain 152 124 160
    F6221F Dresden27 7 Henry Oliver 137 126 137
    3-5P32 Eastlake27 9 Jonjo OŽNeill 148 118 152
    563590 Enjoy Responsibly23 6 Henry De Bromhead 114 136
    19-P79 Festive Affair27 7 Jonjo OŽNeill 127 61 119
    3-1U33 Karinga Dancer61 9 Harry Fry 144 132 146
    22-494 Ned Buntline27 7 Noel Meade 93 150
    5-6041 Next Sensation27 8 Michael Scudamore 151 120 156
    63-4F8 Oiseau De Nuit146 13 Colin Tizzard 138 126 148
    U1P579 Parsnip Pete20 9 Tom George 144 125 148
    42211 Pearls Legend34 8 John Spearing 126 124 129
    02P870 Pires40 11 A J Martin 125 144
    313152 Royal Regatta11 7 Philip Hobbs 144 134 152
    0-0215 Sew On Target75 10 Colin Tizzard 142 139 144
    P44P35 Softsong54F 7 David Pipe 120 92 128
    212P22 Solar Impulse75 5 Paul Nicholls 149 134 150
    323222 Surf And Turf165 9 Kevin Frost 132 114 136
    811237 Ted Veale27 8 A J Martin 107 140
    21-60F Witness In Court98 8 Donald McCain 135 98 145
    Last edited by Guest; 3 April 2015, 02:09 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      Stats



      First run in 1977, the Red Rum Handicap Chase it is now one of only a couple of high-class two-mile handicap chases guaranteed to attract a decent field left in the Racing Calendar. If down the years you had looked to a novice, preferably aged eight or younger, who came here on the back of a solid run at the Cheltenham Festival and was towards the lower-middle sector of the handicap, then you will have enjoyed a whale of a time of a time of it. Novices have won seven of the last 13 runnings. The BHA Head of Handicapping has made reference to the excellent record of novices in two-mile handicap chases arguing that they are advantaged by the lesser distance they have to travel. By this late stage of the season a novice should have gained a fair bit of experience so their jumping should become more polished so they close to being on a level footing with their older rivals, who, of course, are unlikely to be improving at the same rate of knots, if they are improving at all.

      If down the years you had looked to a novice, preferably aged eight or younger, who came here on the back of a solid run at the Cheltenham Festival and was towards the lower-middle sector of the handicap, then you will have enjoyed a whale of a time of a time of it.

      Seven of the last 16 winners had previously taken part in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival. No shock of course that the Grand Annual, won this season by Next Sensation whose running style from the front looks even better suited at Aintree, should be the best guide by a considerable margin given that the Red Rum Chase and Grand Annual are the two most prestigious two-mile handicap chases run all season and take place within a month of each other, but to the extent of winning almost half of the last 16 runnings? Yes, the Grand Annual is well represented in the Red Rum but they are still over-performing in a notable way. Although Grand Annual runners have fared well here, it had proven hard going for the winner to double up until fairly recently but successes for Fota Island and Oh Crick in the last 11 years have changed that. Their recent record reads: 31PF192.

      Last season’s renewal can also be a good guide and has featured three of the last eight winners. The last winner to be placed in the previous year’s renewal was Flying Instructor who won the 1999 running having found just one too good 12 months earlier. Last season’s 1-2-3-4 were Parsnip Pete, Turn Over Sivola, Claret Cloak and Asracad. Should last year’s winner run in this race for the sixth consecutive year the record of the defending title holder over the last decade reads: 27P9RF6.

      In victory at the age of 11 two years ago Oiseau De Nuit became only the second horse aged 10+ to win this handicap in the last 26 years. Given the high success rate of novices, it will not come as surprise to note that horses aged in double figures have struggled down the years as very few can retain their basic speed once they hit the age of ten so they will have to be very well handicapped to take a race as competitive as this. The only other winner aged 10+ since Prideaux Boy won in 1988 was the Jimmy Fitzgerald-trained Boutzdaroff in 1993 for a stable with a canny knack of winning big handicaps.

      Six wins in total for the Irish since this race was first run in 1977 including the very first winner, Skymas, who won under top weight with Mouse Morris in the saddle having won the Queen Mother Champion Chase on his previous start. More latterly, two wins in the last 16 runnings is just an okay return though it is not a race they would tackle in any great depth.

      Two years ago the winner became just the second winner in the last 15 years to have carried more than 11st 2lb since 1999. It is also worth noting that two of the last six winners won racing from 5lb out of the handicap so I suggest we stay loyal to horses set to carry not much over 11st at the very least. Eleven of the last 17 winners of this handicap were sent off in the first five in the betting and four of the last seven winners were ridden by conditional jockeys claiming an allowance to compensate for their lack of experience.

      Comment


      • #4
        Bellenos is pricewise and was overpriced at 25s.

        Like Ted Veale and Ned Buntline in this.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by mayo View Post
          Bellenos is pricewise and was overpriced at 25s.

          Like Ted Veale and Ned Buntline in this.
          Ted Veale has had an unusual campaign this year hasn't he, must be some method in the madness, Tony Martin is a real shrewdie

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by MrMcGoldrick View Post
            Ted Veale has had an unusual campaign this year hasn't he, must be some method in the madness, Tony Martin is a real shrewdie
            or gangster

            had a good weekend at Fairyhouse.

            Comment


            • #7
              Dresden was running a cracker in the Grand Annual before coming down at the 4th last and is one who can go very close in a very tough heat

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                Dresden was running a cracker in the Grand Annual before coming down at the 4th last and is one who can go very close in a very tough heat
                More I looked at this the more confused I got.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Surf and Turf is one at a price here. Very consistant type and has an easy win under his belt on the course and ran a good second to Parsnip Pete here in October. 40/1EW a massive price.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Morning Glory View Post
                    More I looked at this the more confused I got.
                    I know what you mean. Have added Surf and Turf now too.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by waywardlad View Post
                      Surf and Turf is one at a price here. Very consistant type and has an easy win under his belt on the course and ran a good second to Parsnip Pete here in October. 40/1EW a massive price.
                      Brillant tipping.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by waywardlad View Post
                        Surf and Turf is one at a price here. Very consistant type and has an easy win under his belt on the course and ran a good second to Parsnip Pete here in October. 40/1EW a massive price.
                        Hats off to you Sir.....

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Wow, excellent work waywardlad. Superb.

                          Comment

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