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I has a poor Festival. Coukdnt bring myself to look in here for a few days and then see that almost everyone cleaned up. Anyway well done winners.
Some stats reviewd here by Ben Aiken. What was going on with front runners ?
The festival is a hard place to make all and win from the front. Well it used to be! This year it seemed like the only place to be!!
Eight of the festivals 27 winners went from the front and held on for Cheltenham glory.
They were…
UN DE SCEAUX – FAUGHEEN – WINDSOR PARK (at least disputed the lead for most of the race) – VAUTOUR – UXIZANDRE – COLE HARDEN – CONEYGREE – NEXT SENSATION
The overall stats for front-runners at the 2015 festival look like this…
8/32 | 25% S/R | +£43.41 BFLSP – Win & Place 15/32 | 47% S/R
Hell almost 50% held on to be placed!
The last few festivals have produced the following number of front-running winners…
2014 – 1
2013 – 3
2012 – 2
2011 – 2
2010 – 2
As you can see this year showed a significant increase based on recent festivals.
Indeed front-runners at this years festival were striking 168% above expectation!!
The reason for this? Hard to be exact about it to be fair.
There was word that the fences were slightly softer this year but that only (potentially) accounts for the chasers (and doesn’t conclusively account for the chasers).
I personally would not have expected so many front-runners to have been hitting the mark but it is certainly something to keep in mind for next year.
Are front-runners about to become a dominant force at the festival?
.
Leopardstown AGAIN proved to be a hot warm-up track…
Admittedly it provided the (joint) most amount of runners of any last time out track but the figures are still worth noting…
7/55 | 13% S/R | -£5.97 BFLSP – Win & Place 18/55 | 33% S/R – 49% above expectation
1 in 3 runners that warmed up for their Cheltenham target at Leopardstown placed; that’s very eye-catching.
Overall you would have recorded a loss if backing all the qualifiers, however, one simple filter brings you bang into profit…
Top three finish at Leopardstown last time out
7/35 | 20% S/R | +£13.88 BFLSP – Win & Place 15/35 | 43% S/R
That angle has now produced a profit at the last FIVE Cheltenham Festivals!!
*Profits and strike-rates improve further when only looking at those that ran in NON-HANDICAPS last time out at Leopardstown.
Keep a close eye on any ‘top three last time out Leopardstown finishers’ at next years festival!
.
The German (GER) and American (USA) bred hurdlers again failed to deliver…
Very few took up the challenge this time around, maybe owners and trainers are starting to realise it a fruitless task!
Here are the figures of those GER & USA bred runners that did attempt the ‘impossible’…
0/5 | 0% S/R | -£5.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 1/5 | 20% S/R
Arctic Fire again tried his best to beat the hoodoo but he once again had to settle for silver.
There is just something this sub-set of hurdlers do not enjoy about the festival environment…
.
None of the 19 horses that stepped up from a handicap into a non-handicap managed to win…
It’s a mightily hard task and time after time these types keep coming up short.
The figures for this years festival look like this…
0/19 | 0% S/R | -£19.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 2/16 | 11% S/R
Notable runners to succumb to the angle this year were…
THE YOUNG MASTER – IF IN DOUBT – SIRE DE GRUGY – DJAKADAM
If we look at this angle from the last seven festivals we get a supremely poor…
2/215 | 1% S/R | -£198.20 BFLSP – Win & Place 25/215 | 12% S/R
If you are gunning for a non-handicap race at the Cheltenham Festival then your warm-up NEEDS to have been away from handicap company.
.
Ten of the 16 winners of festival non-handicap races WON last time out…
In fact 13 of the 16 winners finished in the top 2 last time out.
They win pretty much what the market expects them to and you couldn’t back all qualifiers and make a profit (you would have made a hefty -£53.42 loss this year to be fair!) but it’s still something to keep in mind and a winning warm-up should not be underestimated.
The obvious starting point is sometimes the best starting point.
On the other hand…
Only three of the 11 handicap winners finished in the top two last time out…
Producing figures of…
3/79 | 4% S/R | -£27.09 BFLSP – Win & Place 17/79 | 22% S/R
Clearly there was a bit of ‘hiding the full hand from the handicapper’ going on with the final start pre-festival, making things a little bit trickier for us punters.
The net had to be stretched far and wide in search of those handicap winners.
.
Horses running in the Festival Grade 1’s off the back off a 75 day or longer break struggled…
Those runners that were prepped at home for their festival race struggled to land a significant blow in the Grade 1’s…
1/33 | 3% S/R | -£26.80 BFLSP – Win & Place 6/33 | 18% S/R
MOON RACER in the bumper was the only runner to win a top race off a lengthy break. That’s possibly a significant pointer to the horse’s ability and something that shouldn’t be underestimated. It’s very hard to win at the festival without some recent match practice however the Pipe inmate brushed aside his opposition in style.
Keep Moon Racer firmly on the radar, his bumper win is better than it looks.
In the same vain…
Horses running in the Festival Grade 1’s off the back off a 30 day or shorter break also struggled…
Whilst recent match practice is necessary it’s important that it wasn’t so close to the festival that the effects of the race may still be being felt…
0/32 | 0% S/R | -£32.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 4/32 | 13% S/R
There were some notable runners trying to slot in a last minute warm-up in the month leading up to the festival and that seems to have worked against them this term. Sire De Grugy is the stand out runner on this angle as Gary Moore’s stable-star had to head to the Chepstow mud after his Game Spirit Chase slip-up and that run, despite him recording an eye-catching win, may have just left him short for his title defense.
Running in one of the Festival Grade 1’s off the back of a very recent run was not a profitable move this season.
.
Some stats reviewd here by Ben Aiken. What was going on with front runners ?
The festival is a hard place to make all and win from the front. Well it used to be! This year it seemed like the only place to be!!
Eight of the festivals 27 winners went from the front and held on for Cheltenham glory.
They were…
UN DE SCEAUX – FAUGHEEN – WINDSOR PARK (at least disputed the lead for most of the race) – VAUTOUR – UXIZANDRE – COLE HARDEN – CONEYGREE – NEXT SENSATION
The overall stats for front-runners at the 2015 festival look like this…
8/32 | 25% S/R | +£43.41 BFLSP – Win & Place 15/32 | 47% S/R
Hell almost 50% held on to be placed!
The last few festivals have produced the following number of front-running winners…
2014 – 1
2013 – 3
2012 – 2
2011 – 2
2010 – 2
As you can see this year showed a significant increase based on recent festivals.
Indeed front-runners at this years festival were striking 168% above expectation!!
The reason for this? Hard to be exact about it to be fair.
There was word that the fences were slightly softer this year but that only (potentially) accounts for the chasers (and doesn’t conclusively account for the chasers).
I personally would not have expected so many front-runners to have been hitting the mark but it is certainly something to keep in mind for next year.
Are front-runners about to become a dominant force at the festival?
.
Leopardstown AGAIN proved to be a hot warm-up track…
Admittedly it provided the (joint) most amount of runners of any last time out track but the figures are still worth noting…
7/55 | 13% S/R | -£5.97 BFLSP – Win & Place 18/55 | 33% S/R – 49% above expectation
1 in 3 runners that warmed up for their Cheltenham target at Leopardstown placed; that’s very eye-catching.
Overall you would have recorded a loss if backing all the qualifiers, however, one simple filter brings you bang into profit…
Top three finish at Leopardstown last time out
7/35 | 20% S/R | +£13.88 BFLSP – Win & Place 15/35 | 43% S/R
That angle has now produced a profit at the last FIVE Cheltenham Festivals!!
*Profits and strike-rates improve further when only looking at those that ran in NON-HANDICAPS last time out at Leopardstown.
Keep a close eye on any ‘top three last time out Leopardstown finishers’ at next years festival!
.
The German (GER) and American (USA) bred hurdlers again failed to deliver…
Very few took up the challenge this time around, maybe owners and trainers are starting to realise it a fruitless task!
Here are the figures of those GER & USA bred runners that did attempt the ‘impossible’…
0/5 | 0% S/R | -£5.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 1/5 | 20% S/R
Arctic Fire again tried his best to beat the hoodoo but he once again had to settle for silver.
There is just something this sub-set of hurdlers do not enjoy about the festival environment…
.
None of the 19 horses that stepped up from a handicap into a non-handicap managed to win…
It’s a mightily hard task and time after time these types keep coming up short.
The figures for this years festival look like this…
0/19 | 0% S/R | -£19.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 2/16 | 11% S/R
Notable runners to succumb to the angle this year were…
THE YOUNG MASTER – IF IN DOUBT – SIRE DE GRUGY – DJAKADAM
If we look at this angle from the last seven festivals we get a supremely poor…
2/215 | 1% S/R | -£198.20 BFLSP – Win & Place 25/215 | 12% S/R
If you are gunning for a non-handicap race at the Cheltenham Festival then your warm-up NEEDS to have been away from handicap company.
.
Ten of the 16 winners of festival non-handicap races WON last time out…
In fact 13 of the 16 winners finished in the top 2 last time out.
They win pretty much what the market expects them to and you couldn’t back all qualifiers and make a profit (you would have made a hefty -£53.42 loss this year to be fair!) but it’s still something to keep in mind and a winning warm-up should not be underestimated.
The obvious starting point is sometimes the best starting point.
On the other hand…
Only three of the 11 handicap winners finished in the top two last time out…
Producing figures of…
3/79 | 4% S/R | -£27.09 BFLSP – Win & Place 17/79 | 22% S/R
Clearly there was a bit of ‘hiding the full hand from the handicapper’ going on with the final start pre-festival, making things a little bit trickier for us punters.
The net had to be stretched far and wide in search of those handicap winners.
.
Horses running in the Festival Grade 1’s off the back off a 75 day or longer break struggled…
Those runners that were prepped at home for their festival race struggled to land a significant blow in the Grade 1’s…
1/33 | 3% S/R | -£26.80 BFLSP – Win & Place 6/33 | 18% S/R
MOON RACER in the bumper was the only runner to win a top race off a lengthy break. That’s possibly a significant pointer to the horse’s ability and something that shouldn’t be underestimated. It’s very hard to win at the festival without some recent match practice however the Pipe inmate brushed aside his opposition in style.
Keep Moon Racer firmly on the radar, his bumper win is better than it looks.
In the same vain…
Horses running in the Festival Grade 1’s off the back off a 30 day or shorter break also struggled…
Whilst recent match practice is necessary it’s important that it wasn’t so close to the festival that the effects of the race may still be being felt…
0/32 | 0% S/R | -£32.00 BFLSP – Win & Place 4/32 | 13% S/R
There were some notable runners trying to slot in a last minute warm-up in the month leading up to the festival and that seems to have worked against them this term. Sire De Grugy is the stand out runner on this angle as Gary Moore’s stable-star had to head to the Chepstow mud after his Game Spirit Chase slip-up and that run, despite him recording an eye-catching win, may have just left him short for his title defense.
Running in one of the Festival Grade 1’s off the back of a very recent run was not a profitable move this season.
.
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