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  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Sprinter View Post
    Entries on the front page ...?

    John Ferguson the coming man ?
    Wanted to add links to jump notebooks section but happy to go with flow on where entries should be in the thread.

    Ferguson could be a real force soon with the backing he has. Also notable McCain sending out more winners this season than the big two.

  2. #22
    Mozoltov wins Moscow flyer at punchestown

    Afterwards Mullins stated “Mozoltov has been doing good work at home and I've been waiting for a nice race to get him out instead of taking on one of our own. I didn't think he'd be taking on as good a bunch as these and he has to go into 'the top drawer'.

    “I'd imagine we're looking for the Supreme Novices hurdle with him and he can only be better on better ground and Ruby said he wasn't at home on that ground today.”

    Paddy Power later cut Mozoltov to 16/1 (from 20s) for the Supreme Novices Hurdle while Boylesports go 16/1, from 33s and Stan James go 20/1 (from 33s).

  3. #23
    Senior Member Statto's Avatar
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    34 of the last 38 winners were aged five or six
    12 out of the last 13 winners ran in the previous 45 days
    14 of the last 16 winners won last time out
    11 of the last 12 winners had a pre-race RPR of at least 132
    Eight of the last 14 winners were Irish-trained
    12 of the last 12 winners won at least 50% of hurdles starts
    Only six favourites have won have won in the last 33 runnings
    No winning favourites in the last eight renewals

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old Vic View Post
    Wanted to add links to jump notebooks section but happy to go with flow on where entries should be in the thread.

    Ferguson could be a real force soon with the backing he has. Also notable McCain sending out more winners this season than the big two.
    Hello to all. I had high hopes for Ferguson and maybe project will take some time to come to fruition but a bit disappointed in how his have come on ...take new years eve ..no real explanation

    "He's come out of it fine, but I have to say we were disappointed, We'll make sure we run him on better ground and see if we get a better result. We know he's a talented horse. I'm sure Paul's (Nicholls) horse (Ptit Zig) is very good. We will just wait to see what he is like on better ground.There's a long way between now and Cheltenham so we will just have to wait and see."

    Think NYE last run also weakens the River Maigue form ...

  5. #25
    Senior Member Statto's Avatar
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    Pointers this weekend ?

    The Visit Betfair.com/RacingOffers Novices’ Hurdle that opens Newbury’s card on Saturday is only a standard event of its type but it has certainly been a useful guide to the William Hill Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Last year’s winner, Montbazon, for example, jumped the final flight in the Supreme upsides the winner before being just run out of third place in a tight finish and this race was also the last port of call for Arcalis (third) and Al Ferof (won) before they won the Supreme, as was the case for the 1997 winner, Shadow Leader.

  6. #26
    Yeehaa
    Guest
    Some shake up today

    My Tent Or Yours (steamer9/4), Jezki (9/2drifter), Un Atout (9drifter), Dodging Bullets (14), Puffin Billy (14drifter), River Maigue (14drifter), Melodic Rendezvous (16drifter), Champagne Fever (steamer20), Chatterbox (steamer20), Pique Sous (20), Annie Power (25), Mozoltov (25drifter), Rock Critic (25), Rule The World (25), Black Spirit (33), Bright New Dawn (steamer33), Cause Of Causes (33drifter), Don Cossack (33), Fatcatinthehat (33), Moscow Mannon (33)

  7. #27
    racecaller13
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    Age (Win-Place-Runners)
    4yo: 0-1-8
    5yo: 4-13-92
    6yo: 5-4-73
    7yo: 1-1-20
    8yo+: 0-1-4
    No strong trends on ages, 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6, but those age groups represented 83.5% of the total runners. The last 2 winners aged older than 6 were trained in Ireland and owned by J P McManus.

    Gender
    Mares (0-1-7) have gained 1 place from 7 runners in last 10 years. Like A Butterfly in 2002 was last female winner, and both female hurdlers to make the frame since 2002 had won a grade 1 or 2 hurdle.

    Recent/Past Form
    9 of 10 winners ran in the past 55 days
    8 of 10 winners won last time out (2 exceptions placed)
    8 of 10 winners (last 5) posted an RPR of 137+ last time out
    10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times over hurdles since August
    10 of 10 winners won at least half their hurdle starts that season
    9 of 10 winners had not finished worst that 3rd in completed hurdles races that season (exception was 4th in the grade 1 Christmas Hurdle)
    6 of 10 winners had finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle
    8 of 10 winners had won a bumper (other 2 were flat bred rated 86+ on the level)
    2 of 10 winners had won at Cheltenham (6 others were having first course start & other two finished 5th & 2nd in previous Champion Bumper)

    Other Races
    Deloitte Novices Hurdle winner (Champagne Fever): 13 (1-1-2)
    Halcyon Gallery British Stallion Studs EBF NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Minella Definitely): 31 (1-1-2)
    Bathwick Tyres Plymouth Novices' Hurdle winner: 012 (1-1-3)
    Pyments Quantity Surveyors EBF NH Novices' Hurdle winner (Melodic Rendezvous): 610U2 (1-1-5)
    William Hill - No.1 Downloaded Betting App Novices' Hurdle winner (River Maigue): 419 (1-0-3)
    Tolworth Hurdle winner (Melodic Rendezvous): 501 (1-0-3)
    Visit betfair.com/racingoffers Novices' Hurdle winner (Chatterbox): 0P14 (1-0-4)
    Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle winner (Mozoltov): 2803 (0-2-4)
    Royal Bond Novice Hurdle winner (Jezki): 20037 (0-2-5)
    EBF Connolly's Red Mills NH Novices' Hurdle winner (My Tent Or Yours): 2 (0-1-1)
    Fishery Lane Hurdle winner (Jezki): 2 (0-1-1)
    Lemington Maiden Hurdle winner (Court Minstrel): 3 (0-1-1)
    Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle winner (Cause Of Causes): 3 (0-1-1)
    Inkerman London NH Maiden Hurdle winner (Puffin Billy): 34 (0-1-2)
    Previous season's "Future Champions" Flat Race winner (Don Cossack): 73 (0-1-2)
    Betfair Hurdle winner (My Tent Or Yours): 25 (0-1-2)
    Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle winner (Puffin Billy): P92 (0-1-3)
    Champion Bumper winner (Champagne Fever): 7534 (0-1-4)
    Future Champions Novice Hurdle winner (Jezki): U0 (0-0-2)
    Betfred Mobile Lotto Charity Introductory Hurdle winner (Chatterbox): 40 (0-0-2)
    GL Events Owen Brown Novices' Hurdle winner (My Tent Or Yours): 0P (0-0-2)
    Irish Stallion Farms EBF Irish Racing Writers Novice Hurdle winner (Un Atout): 550 (0-0-3)
    Punchestown Champion Bumper winner (Champagne Fever): 650 (0-0-3)
    Follow Navan On Facebook Hurdle winner (Cause Of Causes): 746 (0-0-3)
    Bookmakers Bar At Bewleys Hotel Leopardstown Maiden Hurdle winner (Ned Buntline): 5000 (0-0-4)
    Sharp Novices' Hurdle winner (Dodging Bullets): 90040 (0-0-5)
    3 of 10 winners (last 2) ran in Cheltenham Champion Bumper, finishing 325
    2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's November bumper at Cheltenham, finishing 12
    2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Visit betfair.com/racingoffers Novice Hurdle last time, finishing 31
    2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in Pyments Quantity Surveyors EBF NH Novices' Hurdle, finishing 1F
    2 of 5 British-trained winners ran in previous season's John Smith's Bumper, finishing 90

    Trainers
    Irish-trained horses (5-5-63) have taken 5 of the last 10 renewals, though the last 3 runnings have been won by the home team.
    Paul Nicholls (2-1-12) has trained 2 of the last 7 winners.
    Philip Hobbs (1-1-7), Noel Meade (1-1-9) and Donald McCain (1-0-2) have all saddled the winner in past 4 years.
    Willie Mullins (1-0-14) trained the winner once since 2003 but his other 13 runners were all unplaced.
    Nicky Henderson (0-7-15) has seen 7 of his 15 runners make the frame.

    Price
    Recent trend has been towards longer prices with 6 of the last 8 winners going off 10/1 or bigger, including a 40/1 winner.
    Favourites (2-3-12) have won 2 of the last 10 giving a level stakes loss of 1.50, though last 8 favourites have all been beaten.

    Summary:
    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
    · Won last time out in the past 55 days
    · Posted an RPR of 137+ last time
    · Run in 2 to 4 hurdles this season and won at least half those starts
    · Never finished outside first 3 over hurdles
    · Finished in the first 4 in a grade 1 hurdle
    · Finished in first 5 in 2012 Champion Bumper
    · Trained by Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs, Nicky Henderson or in Ireland
    · Won a bumper or rated 86+ on the flat

  8. #28
    Senior Member Lester's Avatar
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    Melodic rendezvous impressive there

  9. #29
    Morning Glory
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lester View Post
    Melodic rendezvous impressive there
    That wasnt Puffin Billy's true running though.

    My tent or yours was different class. The main danger ( other than Jezki) has to be that they switch him to the champion.

  10. #30
    Senior Member Lester's Avatar
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    Blakes Blog

    The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is always an immensely-exciting contest, but with the likes of Jezki, My Tent Or Yours, Un Atout and Melodic Rendezvous at the head of the market, it looks set to be the strongest renewal of the race in many years.
    Before last weekend, Jezki looked a banker, but how quickly things can change in this great sport and now, the focus has very much switched to My Tent Or Yours following his deeply-impressive success off a mark of 149 in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday.

    The early pace didn’t seen quick enough for this free-going sort, but he still just sauntered into the lead and drew away for an impressive five lengths success. Whether the undulations and stiff finish of Cheltenham will play to his strengths is open to question, but in terms of raw ability, Timeform have given him a rating of 168p, which is put in context by the fact that the average Timeform rating for the last 10 winners of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle was 150. Indeed, the average rating for the last 10 Champion Hurdle winners is 166 and the mighty Hurricane Fly is rated 173.

    Not only that, but on Sunday, an impressive success for the Jeremy Scott-trained Melodic Rendezvous at Exeter saw him promoted to third favourite for the race.

    Just how competitive the Festival opener is likely to be is illustrated by the fact that Dodging Bullets, fourth in last year’s Triumph Hurdle, third to the ill-fated Darlan in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton on his latest start and rated no less than 156, is readily available at 14/1, while last season’s top bumper performer Champagne Fever is still available at 14/1 despite winning the Deloitte Novice Hurdle in likeable style at Leopardstown on Saturday. With so many strong contenders, one can be sure that whatever comes out on top in the Cheltenham Festival curtain raiser will take high rank in the ante-post for the Champion Hurdle in 2014.

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