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Originally posted by Liam301287
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That is one of THE festival stats to follow. Applies to all races. There was some crazy priced acca on the first day last year if you followed it. -
Didnt follow last year. Didnt get the book. Pleased to this year. Only had it a day helping a lot managed to have a look through a couple of races.Comment
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Like the look of Champagne James lurking in this one. Feel that he's definitely been undercooked this season so far and his last run in 2nd at Naas in a decent size field was a nice prep. 25s available with Laddies though I've played safer at 20s NRNB B365.Comment
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Good shout imo.Originally posted by waywardlad View Post
Have had a look at stats
Winner's Market Position: 2 1 0 3 2 5 4 1 0 3
Fate of the Favourite: P 1 7 F 0 7 5 1 5 0
4 of last 5 winners won last time out
8/9 winners finished in the first 2 last time out
7 year olds have won 6 of the 9 renewals
6/10 won by horses running in first handicap chase
Tom Taaffe has the best record of Irish trainers with a win and a third
Nicky Henderson trained winner in 2013 and the the runner up 3 times
JP McManus owned horses have finished second on 3 occasions ( and third in 2014)
Only one horse getting in under a penalty has placed
Headgear: No winners from 35 qualifers however
First Time Headgear: 5 horses placed wearing first time headgear since 2008
Seven year olds finishing in first two last time out gives us
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>Flaming Dawn is owned by JP and would be of interest if getting in.92-111 LEAP DEARG (IRE) 7 139 11-09 Robert Tyner IRE 4112 GORSKY ISLAND 7 138 11-08 Tom George 2321 HORIZONTAL SPEED (IRE) 7 137 11-07 Philip Hobbs S5131 GENEROUS RANSOM (IRE) 7 136 11-06 Nick Gifford 16F21 MONKEY KINGDOM 7 135 11-05 Rebecca Curtis 6251 OSCAR FORTUNE (IRE) 7 135 11-04 Jonjo O'Neill 23242 CHAMPAGNE JAMES (IRE) 7 134 11-04 Ted Walsh IRE 412232 WILTON MILAN (IRE) 7 132 11-02 Paul Nicholls 308F72 FLAMING DAWN (IRE) 7 131 11-01 Edward O'Grady IRE Last edited by Old Vic; 1 March 2015, 10:33 AM.Comment
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Peoples thoughts on Thomas Crapper?Comment
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2nd in Martin Pipe splitting Don Poli and Caid Du Berlais but getting a stone from them.Originally posted by paz247 View Post
I'm on the fence.Comment
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CJ's novice hurdle form was pretty decent and a never nearer 11L second to Valseur Lido on chasing debut makes decent reading. He seems to be a classy sort, so I think he has been pretty leniently treated by the handicapper. Hopefully he's going to get a run, doesn't need masses to come out, but you never know.Originally posted by Old Vic View PostGood shout imo.
Have had a look at stats
Winner's Market Position: 2 1 0 3 2 5 4 1 0 3
Fate of the Favourite: P 1 7 F 0 7 5 1 5 0
4 of last 5 winners won last time out
8/9 winners finished in the first 2 last time out
7 year olds have won 6 of the 9 renewals
6/10 won by horses running in first handicap chase
Tom Taaffe has the best record of Irish trainers with a win and a third
Nicky Henderson trained winner in 2013 and the the runner up 3 times
JP McManus owned horses have finished second on 3 occasions ( and third in 2014)
Only one horse getting in under a penalty has placed
Headgear: No winners from 35 qualifers however
First Time Headgear: 5 horses placed wearing first time headgear since 2008
Seven year olds finishing in first two last time out gives us
<style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--></style>Flaming Dawn is owned by JP and would be of interest if getting in.92-111 LEAP DEARG (IRE) 7 139 11-09 Robert Tyner IRE 4112 GORSKY ISLAND 7 138 11-08 Tom George 2321 HORIZONTAL SPEED (IRE) 7 137 11-07 Philip Hobbs S5131 GENEROUS RANSOM (IRE) 7 136 11-06 Nick Gifford 16F21 MONKEY KINGDOM 7 135 11-05 Rebecca Curtis 6251 OSCAR FORTUNE (IRE) 7 135 11-04 Jonjo O'Neill 23242 CHAMPAGNE JAMES (IRE) 7 134 11-04 Ted Walsh IRE 412232 WILTON MILAN (IRE) 7 132 11-02 Paul Nicholls 308F72 FLAMING DAWN (IRE) 7 131 11-01 Edward O'Grady IRE
I think he's my EW bet of the meeting along with General Principle and Hostile Fire for a nice treble
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Champagne James still under the radar imo.Comment
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Novices Handicap Chase Odds Table
<iframe width = 660 height = 1300 src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kvyKVlAgdc6RwUMmuFo6D74F13167XvHISkBbFx02-Q/pubhtml?gid=978881413&single=true&widget=t rue&headers=false"></iframe>Comment
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Ian McClean
Novices Handicap Chase
It's a relatively recent addition to the Festival menu and even at that it has changed title more frequently than Chelmsford City (or was that Great Leighs, or?).
A 0-140 handicap with a guaranteed maximum field and a weight-range that's as tight as a conditions race, it's an unlikely source for a selection. However, I was taken enough with Generous Ransom's victory during trials' day over course and distance to believe then he was tailor-made for this event.
In a very strongly run event, Nick Gifford's chestnut travelled easily before picking off the leaders at will and winning with any amount in hand. His idling finish means he was raised just 8lbs.
The fourth that day won a much stronger race at Ascot next time and is now rated 152 as a result. Generous Ransom will obviously need luck in running, but Daryl Jacob is having a very confident year and off just 136 I'll be extremely surprised if there's a better handicapped horse in the race.
Selection: Generous RansomComment
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I'd agree with much of this. Backed GR. Can I throw another into the mix. Stellar Notion, jumps nicely from the front and was in the process of running another nice race before knuckling on landing 3 out at Cheltenham last time. By presenting and his form also suggests he is better on good ground.Originally posted by mayo View Post
Quite an odd stat is that he is by the same sire as Rajdhani Express who finished 1st in the same Kempton handicap and 7th in the same Cheltenham handicap before winning this race.
Presenting also had the winner of this last year with Present View.Comment
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Creepy Generous Ransom Bold Henry the 3 course winners. I think one of them will win. Thomas Crapper if he gets in also a course winner.Last edited by Old Vic; 8 March 2015, 08:16 PM.Comment
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Has anyone got any news re Killala Quay for this, I thought he ran on quiet nicely last year and 20/1seems pretty fair to meComment
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Got a couple of mentions on the race hour preview. Longsdon names Killala and Pendras his best chances. Killala wearing cheek pieces for first time. Noel Fehily rides and per @FehilyFans: @racinggroups #racehour Noel too a has talked up chances of Killala Quay - tough task at the weights but has been prepared with race in mindOriginally posted by Star Of A Gunner View PostComment
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Keltus has got in.Comment
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