Horses skipping Cheltenham for Aintree

[Old Vic]

As the likes of Follow the Plan the 50-1 winner of the 2012 BetFred bowl have shown identifying horses saved for the Grand National meeting rather than those primed for Cheltenham and asked to peak again three weeks later can be a profitable strategy.

Here are a few of the top of my head

Jeremy Scott

Melodic Rendezvous


Peter Casey

Flemenstar

Paul Nicholls

Irish Saint
Fago
Rocky Creek?

Nicky Henderson

Forgotten Voice
Master of the Hall?

Nicky Richards

Eduard
Duke Of Navan

[Morning Glory]

others in Henderson's..

Finians Rainbow !
maybe Tistory ...though think it was The Judge said may want to keep his novice status?

FWIW this piece questions your theory was written before 2012 meeting

As a result, it is possible to come to such an occasion cold but with a good general idea of what to expect, as tradition ensures that history should hold some valuable lessons for us.

One of those lessons is the ability - or otherwise - of horses who ran well at the Cheltenham Festival to follow up just a few weeks later. Plenty have failed, and received wisdom might have you imagine that Aintree is a graveyard for horses coming on from the Cheltenham Festival. It is not.

The ever-readable James Pyman in Racing Post made this very point recently, concluding "since 2005, simply backing runners at Aintree who had posted a top-three finish at the Cheltenham festival on their previous outings would have led to 43 winners from 224 bets and a £1 level-stake profit of £37.89".

This tallies with my own findings, though stats can be distorted by the means of measurement employed, so I decided to have a closer look at the records from just the last three years.

"Actual against expected performance", as judged by a comparison between a horse's Timeform master rating pre-race and its Timeform performance rating in the race itself, provides further compelling evidence.

Horses that had last run at the Cheltenham Festival performed marginally better at Aintree than those that had come by a different route (median of 19 below and 22 below expectation respectively).

Those that had finished in the first three last time at Cheltenham fared better still (median of 14 below expectation). And Cheltenham winners fared best of all, having a median performance rating of just 8 below their pre-race master ratings. That is much better than for the wider horse population.

This has not been reflected fully in those horses' odds, either. A variable stake at Betfair SP (that is, more is theoretically staked on shorter-priced horses than on outsiders, thus limiting the effect of "fluke" events) saw Cheltenham winners handsomely in profit. Cheltenham runners-up sneaked into the black also.

Cheltenham and Aintree present rather different tests for horses, and this factor should not be ignored. But, otherwise, there is little evidence to support the contention that a good run at the former can be expected to compromise the chance of a good run at the latter.

And that could well be even more the case this year than usual, with an extra week's break between the two occasions.

[Morning Glory]

Just checked Thursdays results ...

2:00 - BGC Partners Liverpool Hurdle Grade 1

3m½f, Class 1, £56,736.00

1 Big Buck's 2/9F
2 Crack Away Jack 33/1
3 Across The Bay 50/1

8 ran Distances: 9l, 3¼l, 7l
TIME 6m 17.20s (slow by 23.20s)

Jockey: R Walsh
Trainer: Paul Nicholls

Winner ran at Cheltenham finishing 1st


2:30 - Matalan Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle Grade 1

2m½f, Class 1, £56,270.00

1 Grumeti 11/4F
2 Countrywide Flame 4/1
3 Sadler's Risk 9/2

NR: Kapga De Cerisy (FR), Pearl Swan (FR)

11 ran Distances: 1l, 21l, 1¼l
TIME 4m 3.70s (slow by 10.70s)

Jockey: Robert Thornton
Trainer: Alan King

Winner ran at Cheltenham finishing 3rd

3:05 - Betfred Bowl Chase Grade 1

3m1f, Class 1, £84,405.00

1 Follow The Plan 50/1
2 Burton Port 4/1
3 Hunt Ball 6/1

11 ran Distances: 3l, nk, nse
TIME 6m 26.60s (slow by 19.60s)

Jockey: Tom Doyle
Trainer: Oliver McKiernan

2nd and 3rd ran at Cheltenham finishing 4th and 1st respectively

3:40 - John Smith's Fox Hunters' Chase



2m5½f, Class 2, £20,986.00

1 Cloudy Lane 4/1J
2 Roulez Cool 14/1
3 Herons Well 33/1

26 ran Distances: 2¾l, 2¼l, 1½l
TIME 5m 36.20s (slow by 15.20s)

Jockey: Mr R O Harding
Trainer: Donald McCain

2 & 3rd ran at Cheltenham

4:15 - matalan.co.uk Red Rum Handicap Chase Grade 3


2m, Class 1, £34,170.00

1 Edgardo Sol 9/2F
2 Astracad 8/1
3 Echo Bob 25/1

13 ran Distances: 14l, 7l, 1¾l
TIME 3m 55.20s (slow by 6.20s)

Jockey: R Walsh
Trainer: Paul Nicholls

Winner Ran at Cheltenham finishing 2nd

4:50 - Betfred Manifesto Novices' Chase Grade 1

2m4f, Class 1, £42,712.50

1 Menorah 3/1
2 Cristal Bonus 7/1
3 Al Ferof 6/5F

5 ran Distances: 7l, 5l, 3¼l
TIME 5m 6.20s (slow by 18.20s)

Jockey: Richard Johnson
Trainer: Philip Hobbs

Winner ran at Cheltenham finishing 3rd

5:25 - Silver Cross Handicap Hurdle Grade 3

3m½f, Class 1, £25,627.50

1 Cape Tribulation 14/1
2 American Spin 50/1
3 Trustan Times 16/1
4 Ringaroses 33/1

NR: Gullinbursti (IRE)

21 ran Distances: ¾l, 6l, 2l
TIME 6m 8.40s (slow by 14.40s)

Jockey: Denis O'Regan
Trainer: Malcolm Jefferson

Winner ran at Cheltenham finishing 1st

[Morning Glory]

Fri

2:00 - Tangle Teaser Top Novices' Hurdle Grade 2

2m½f, Class 1, £28,475.00

1 Darlan 7/4F
2 Captain Conan 9/1
3 Prospect Wells 4/1

12 ran Distances: 3¾l, 7l, 5l
TIME 4m 4.70s (slow by 11.70s)

Jockey: A P McCoy
Trainer: Nicky Henderson

Winner ran at Cheltenham finishing 1st

2:30 - John Smith's Mildmay Novices' Chase Grade 2

3m1f, Class 1, £42,712.50

1 Silviniaco Conti 7/4F
2 Champion Court 15/8
3 Join Together 9/2

5 ran Distances: 13l, 12l, 68l
TIME 6m 24.90s (slow by 17.90s)

Jockey: R Walsh
Trainer: Paul Nicholls

2nd ran at Cheltenham



3:05 - John Smith's Melling Chase Grade 1

2m4f, Class 1, £98,557.50

1 Finian's Rainbow 13/8F
2 Wishfull Thinking 15/2
3 Albertas Run 11/4

8 ran Distances: 7l, 13l, 1¼l
TIME 5m 3.80s (slow by 15.80s)

Jockey: Barry Geraghty
Trainer: Nicky Henderson

Winner ran at Cheltenham finishing 1st


3:40 - John Smith's Topham Chase Handicap (Grade 3)

2m5½f, Class 1, £56,270.00

1 Always Waining 11/1
2 Chance Du Roy 16/1
3 Fistral Beach 22/1
4 Aimigayle 12/1

26 ran Distances: 4½l, 1¼l, 10l
TIME 5m 26.20s (slow by 5.20s)

Jockey: Tom O'Brien
Trainer: Peter Bowen

None of placed horses ran at cheltenham

4:15 - John Smith's Sefton Novices' Hurdle Grade 1

3m½f, Class 1, £56,270.00

1 Lovcen 8/1
2 Fingal Bay 13/8F
3 Cotton Mill 6/1

19 ran Distances: 1¾l, 11l, 2¾l
TIME 6m 16.40s (slow by 22.40s)

Jockey: Robert Thornton
Trainer: Alan King

Winner ran at Cheltenham finished 4th

4:50 - John Smith's Daily Mirror Punters Club Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race)


2m4f, Class 1, £22,780.00

1 Attaglance 14/1
2 Tour D'Argent 8/1
3 Los Nadis 66/1
4 Saphir River 33/1

NR: Rajnagan (IRE)

21 ran Distances: 1¾l, 10l, hd
TIME 5m 4.90s (slow by 21.90s)

Jockey: Harry Haynes
Trainer: Malcolm Jefferson

Winner ran at Cheltenham finished 1st

5:25 - John Smith's Mares' Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race)

2m1f, Class 1, £14,237.50

1 Eleven Fifty Nine 6/1
2 Call Me A Star 3/1F
3 Umadachar 17/2

20 ran Distances: 1½l, ½l, ¾l
TIME 4m 15.20s (slow by 24.20s)

Jockey: Rachael Green
Trainer: Anthony Honeyball

No equivalent race at Cheltenham

[Morning Glory]

Saturday

1:45 - John Smith's Mersey Novices' Hurdle Grade 2

Full result

2m4f, Class 1, £28,475.00

1 Simonsig 4/9F
2 Super Duty 7/1
3 Baby Shine 12/1

10 ran Distances: 15l, 2l, 4l
TIME 4m 55.00s (slow by 12.00s)

Jockey: Barry Geraghty
Trainer: Nicky Henderson

Winner ran at cheltenham finishing 1st


2:15 - John Smith's Maghull Novices' Chase Grade 1

Full result

2m, Class 1, £56,270.00

1 Sprinter Sacre 1/7F
2 Toubab 10/1
3 Kudu Country 25/1

4 ran Distances: 13l, 36l, 7l
TIME 3m 55.30s (slow by 6.30s)

Jockey: Barry Geraghty
Trainer: Nicky Henderson

WIN £1.10
Ex £1.90
CSF £2.36

Winner ran at Cheltenham finishing first


2:50 - John Smith's Aintree Hurdle Grade 1

Full result

2m4f, Class 1, £91,096.00

1 Oscar Whisky 9/4
2 Thousand Stars 7/1
3 Rock On Ruby 5/2

NR: Saphir River (FR)

5 ran Distances: nk, 5l, 13l
TIME 5m 1.60s (slow by 18.60s)

Jockey: Barry Geraghty
Trainer: Nicky Henderson

WIN £3.30 PL £1.80, £1.90
Ex £14.50
CSF £15.83

Winner ran at Cheltenham finished 5th

3:25 - John Smith's Handicap Chase (Listed Race)

Full result

3m1f, Class 1, £34,170.00

1 Saint Are 11/1
2 Battle Group 6/1
3 Chapoturgeon 2/1F

14 ran Distances: ½l, 16l, 1½l
TIME 6m 21.70s (slow by 14.70s)

Jockey: Dougie Costello
Trainer: Tim Vaughan

Winner ran at Cheltenham finished 14th

4:15 - John Smith's Grand National Chase (Handicap) Grade 3

Full result

4m4f, Class 1, £547,267.50

1 Neptune Collonges 33/1
2 Sunnyhillboy 16/1
3 Seabass 8/1J
4 Cappa Bleu 16/1

40 ran Distances: nse, 5l, 7l
TIME 9m 5.10s (fast by 4.90s)

Jockey: Daryl Jacob
Trainer: Paul Nicholls

RU ran at Cheltenham finishing 1st

5:05 - John Smith's Handicap Hurdle (For Conditional Jockeys And Amateur Riders)

Full result

2m½f, Class 2, £25,024.00

1 Lifestyle 28/1
2 Conquisto 40/1
3 Gibb River 16/1
4 Dream Esteem 9/1

NR: Ted Spread

21 ran Distances: 1l, 2¼l, shd
TIME 3m 58.70s (slow by 5.70s)

Jockey: David Bass
Trainer: Nicky Henderson

Winner ran at Cheltenham finished 21st


5:35 - John Smith's Champion Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race Grade 2

Full result

2m1f, Class 1, £14,237.50

1 The New One 8/1
2 My Tent Or Yours 5/1
3 Sir Johnson 12/1

NR: Spirit Of Shankly

19 ran Distances: 1¼l, 2l, 7l
TIME 4m 5.30s (slow by 14.30s)

Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
Trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies

Didnt run at Cheltenham.

[Morning Glory]

There was an extra week last year so maybe a bit of caution required by my plan would be:

- graded races - look for horses with a first 4 finish in Cheltenham except for
- 3m chases - preference for fresh horses
- handicaps - any cheltenham run a plus even if finished down the field
- bumpers/races over national fences - no pattern

[Old Vic]

Top work MG

Confirmation bias on my part ..denman etc going here and disappointing.

[mayo]

Micko at OLBG must be watching us ...

Thursday

Race 1 (Grade 2 Hurdle)
2009 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham
2010 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham
2011 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham
2012 - Big Bucks - 1st @ Cheltenham

Race 2 (Grade 1 Novice Hurdle)
2009 - Walkon - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2010 - Orsippus - 3rd @ Cheltenham
2011 - Zarkandar - 1st @ Cheltenham
2012 - Grumeti - 3rd @ Cheltenham

Race 3 (Grade 2 Chase)
2009 - Madison Du Berlais - 8th @ Cheltenham
2010 - What A Friend - 1st @ Leopardstown
2011 - Nacarat - 3rd @ Kempton
2012 - Follow The Plan - 4th @ Gowran Park

Race 4 (Foxhunters - National Course)
2009 - Trust Fund - 1st @ Chepstow
2010 - Silver Adonis - 2nd @ Ludlow
2011 - Baby Run - Unseated Rider @ Cheltenham
2012 - Cloudy Lane - 6th @ Cheltenham

Race 5 (Handicap Chase)
2009 - Oh Crick - 1st @ Cheltenham
2010 - Chaninbar - Pulled Up @ Sandown
2011 - Silk Drum - 5th @ Doncaster
2012 - Edgardo Sol - 2nd @ Cheltenham

Race 6 (Grade 2 Novice Chase)
2009 - Tartak - 5th @ Cheltenham
2010 - Mad Max - 4th @ Cheltenham
2011 - Wishfull Thinking - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2012 - Menorah - 3rd @ Cheltenham

Race 7 (Handicap Hurdle)
2009 - Sunnyhill Boy - 25th @ Cheltenham
2010 - Sir Harry Ormesher - 7th @ Cheltenham
2011 - Russian War - 10th @ Cheltenham
2012 - Cape Tribulation - 1st @ Cheltenham


Friday

Race 1 (Grade 2 Novice Hurdle)
2009 - El Dancer - 1st @ Plumpton
2010 - General Miller - Unseated @ Cheltenham
2011 - Topolski- 1st @ Newton Abbot
2012 - Darlan - 2nd @ Cheltenham

Race 2 (Grade 2 Novice Chase)
2009 - Killyglen - Pulled Up @ Cheltenham
2010 - Burton Port - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2011 - Quito De La Roque - 1st @ Navan
2012 - Silviniaco Conti - 4th @ Ascot

Race 3 (Grade 1 Chase)
2009 - Voy Por Ustedes - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2010 - Albertas Run - 1st @ Cheltenham
2011 - Master Minded - 8th @ Cheltenham
2012 - Finians Rainbow - 1st @ Cheltenham

Race 4 (Handicap Chase - National Course)
2009 - Irish Raptor - 10th @ Cheltenham
2010 - Always Waining - Pulled Up @ Uttoxeter
2011 - Always Waining - 4th @ Chepstow
2012 - Always Waining - 9th @ Bangor

Race 5 (Grade 1 Novice Hurdle)
2009 - Ogee - 1st @ Uttoxeter
2010 - Wayward Prince - 2nd @ Haydock
2011 - Saint Are - 3rd @ Newbury
2012 - Lovcen - 4th @ Cheltenham

Race 6 (Handicap Hurdle)
2009 - Time For Rupert - 10th @ Sandown
2010 - Ringaroses - 1st @ Huntingdon
2011 - Battle Group - 4th @ Cheltenham
2012 - Attaglance - 1st @ Cheltenham

Race 7 (NH Flat Race)
2009 - Candy Creek - 4th @ Navan
2010 - Big Time Billy - 1st @ Ludlow
2011 - Tempest River - 4th @ Sandown
2012 - Eleven Fifty Nine - 3rd @ Sandown


Saturday

Race 1 (Grade 2 Novice Hurdle)
2009 - Bouggler - 1st @ Kempton
2010 - Peddlers Cross - 1st @ Cheltenham
2011 - Spirit Son - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2012 - Simonsig - 1st @ Cheltenham

Race 2 (Grade 1 Novice Chase)
2009 - Kalahari King - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2010 - Tataniano - 2nd @ Newbury
2011 - Finians Rainbow - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2012 - Sprinter Sacre - 1st @ Cheltenham

Race 3 (Grade 1 Hurdle)
2009 - Solwhit - 1st @ Gowran Park
2010 - Khyber Kim - 2nd @ Cheltenham
2011 - Oscar Whisky - 3rd @ Cheltenham
2012 - Oscar Whisky - 5th @ Cheltenham

Race 4 (Handicap Chase)
2009 - Dont Push It - 7th @ Cheltenham
2010 - From Dawn To Dusk - 3rd @ Cheltenham
2011 - Prince De Beauchene - 5th @ Newbury
2012 - Saint Are - 14th @ Cheltenham

Race 5 (Grand National - National Course)
2009 - Mon Mome - 8th @ Uttoxeter
2010 - Dont Push It - Pulled Up @ Cheltenham
2011 - Ballabriggs - 2nd @ Kelso
2012 - Neptune Collonges - 2nd @ Haydock

Race 6 (Handicap Hurdle)
2009 - Culcabock - 17th @ Cheltenham
2010 - Dee Ee Williams - 3rd @ Cheltenham
2011 - Far Away So Close - 9th @ Cheltenham
2012 - Lifestyle - 21st @ Cheltenham

Race 7 (NH Flat Race)
2009 - Sitting Tennant - 1st @ Newcastle
2010 - Megastar - 5th @ Cheltenham
2011 - Steps To Freedom - Fell @ Bellestown
2012 - The New One - 6th @ Cheltenham


Overall Record

In total there are 84 races, 7 each day over 3 days, of those 84 winners, 52 of them had their last run @ Cheltenham (61.9%) and of those 52, 29 finished in the first 3 @ Cheltenham (55.8%)


Novice Hurdles 10 of the last 16 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

Grade 1 & 2 Hurdles (Non Novice) 7 of the last 8 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham but Big Bucks did win 4 of those races

Novice Chases 9 of the last 12 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

Grade 1 & 2 Chases (Non Novice) 5 of the last 8 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

Handicap Hurdles 10 of the last 12 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

Handicap Chases (Non National Course) 6 of the 12 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

National Course Races 4 of the 12 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

NH Flat Races 2 of the last 8 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham

Conclusion
Using the stats above then any horse that had their last run @ Cheltenham, especially if they finished in the first 3 should be given serious consideration for every race @ Aintree except the following -

Any horse running in a Handicap Chase (all courses) as only 10 of the last 24 winners had their last run @ Cheltenham, it may pay to look at horses that avoided Cheltenham.

NH Flat Races, with only 2 of 8 winners having run @ Cheltenham, it's fair to say that Cheltenham form in these events should be ignored.

And 1 final other stat i have noticed, horses that have contested any Handicap @ Aintree that won on their previous start (No matter where they ran) have only won 4 of the last 28 Handicaps run @ Aintree

I hope these stats can help you pick out a winner or 2 @ the Aintree Festival

Good Luck

[Lester]

Pretty much as MG called it imo.

Dont really like backing horses being aimed at Cheltenham who miss work and come back for Aintree eg Melodic Rendezvous this years Fingal Bay

[mayo]

Aintree may also be on the cards for Pipe’s promising novice Broadway Buffalo, who missed Cheltenham.

“We decided to sidestep Cheltenham with him in order to gain some further experience but he should be more than capable of holding his own in stronger company and could head to Aintree or the Punchestown Festival in the coming weeks,” added Pipe.

“Now unbeaten in five starts and with boundless potential, he remains a very exciting youngster to look forward to.”

[mayo]

Thousand Stars a big omission ...

Nicholls on his lot

"It is hard to believe history will repeat itself after Neptune Collonges' win last year, but I have aimed Join Together at this race all season," said Nicholls in his exclusive Betfair blog.

"He schooled well this week, is going to have a racecourse gallop early next week, and I am happy with him.

"Harry The Viking is also well after his Cheltenham run but would like the ground to dry up, and What A Friend will also have an entry for the Betfred Bowl because I wouldn't want him to be carrying top weight in a soft-ground National. We are keeping our options open with him."

Nicholls said he was pleased to have "plenty of fresh horses to take to Liverpool."

"But, like everybody else, I really do hope that we get some decent ground," he went on. "We won't make a decision on any of the Cheltenham horses until we get them back in full work next week, but I can tell you about my plans for plenty of my other runners that were kept back for Liverpool.

"Irish Saint goes for the juvenile, but at the moment I have my eyes set on some French targets later on in the season for my Triumph-placed horses Far West and Sametegal.

"Prospect Wells goes for the 2m4f Aintree Hurdle, a race in which World Hurdle runner-up Celestial Halo and Champion Hurdle fourth Zarkandar are possibles too, though Celestial obviously has the 3m Liverpool Hurdle as an option too.

"Next week will tell us whether we have any runners in the Bowl, but we have Toubab (needs good ground), and possibly Rebel Rebellion, earmarked for the Red Rum Chase.

"We have freshened Fago up and he seems to be coming back to himself again. He has the two-mile novice chase as a possible target, as does Rebel Rebellion, and Pacha Du Polder has several options, including the Topham.

"Funny Star, not seen out since Aintree in October, could go for the 2m4f handicap hurdle. I am looking forward to running Newbury runner-up Vago Collonges in the bumper and we have a couple of strong hands to play in the novice chases with Rolling Aces and Rocky Creek.

"Michel Le Bon bounced back to form in blinkers last time and they will be on again as he bids to follow up in the 3m1f handicap chase, and we have Easter Day, Wilton Milan and Just A Par as possibles for the novice hurdles."

[mayo]

Some deeper analysis does throw up a few handy pointers when weighing up the chances of Aintree runners arriving from the Festival, however, starting with certain individual races from Prestbury Park that historically provided natural stepping-stones to Merseyside.

Arkle Chase*- supplied 14 of the last 16 Maghull Novices’ Chase winners
Champion Chase*- supplied 10 of the last 16 Melling Chase winners
Triumph Hurdle*- supplied 9 of the last 11 4-Y-O Novices’ Hurdle winners
Gold Cup*- supplied 6 of the last 10 Bowl Chase winners
Grand Annual Chase*- supplied 5 of the last 11 Red Rum Handicap Chase winners
World Hurdle*- supplied the last 7 Liverpool Hurdle winners

[Lester]

Another reader ? Wayne Bailey


RECENTLY, I was chatting to a bloke down in the local about the Aintree Grand National meeting and the advice he gave me, as he tilted his pint of stout at a precarious angle, was to avoid backing a horse at Aintree if it ran well in the preceding Cheltenham Festival.

After a hard day at the office, I was in no mood to argue, so I nodded away and let him make his case. But it made me wonder how such myths can be perpetuated every year when the results simply don't back them up.

In fact, the advice should be turned completely on its head and I'd go as far as to say that any horse which came first or second at the Cheltenham Festival should be at the top of your shortlist if the trainer sends him on to Aintree.

There is a commonly held belief that horses can only be in tip-top shape for a certain amount of time and it's true to say that most trainers will have their good horses finely tuned with Cheltenham in mind.

Coupled with the fact that a tough battle up the Cheltenham hill can take a lot out of a horse, it might seem sensible to avoid such horses when racing again in the space of a few weeks at Aintree.

But training methods and fitness have changed drastically in recent decades and it's now possible for a horse to maintain a high level of form over a number of big meetings. I'm not saying that the horses in years gone by were not as good as today – I'm simply making the point that times have changed and the amount of punishment a top horse can take has changed too.

Here's some food for thought: since 2003, some 204 horses that came first or second at the Cheltenham Festival went on to Aintree and 49 of them won (24pc). Had you stuck a tenner on each, you'd show a profit of €297.

Admittedly, some years such as 2004 (two winners) proved difficult, but the results have been quite positive overall.

Last year, there were eight winners from 20 bets and among the obvious ones such as Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig and Big Buck's, there were a number of decent-priced winners including Cape Tribulation and Attaglance, both priced 14/1.

I'm not saying you should blindly back all horses that qualify, but I certainly wouldn't let a good race at Cheltenham last time put you off and the above stats are worth keeping in mind throughout next week.

[Morning Glory]

Horses skipping Cheltenham for Aintree

Three Musketeers

Three Musketeers put up a really good performance to win the Grade 2 two-mile-five-furlong novices’ hurdle at Warwick on Saturday.

Dan Skelton’s horse travelled well through his race, and he went on at the top of the home straight. He was a little untidy at the second last flight, he got a little unbalanced, and that gave his sole pursuer Ballagh a chance, but he picked up again when Harry Skelton got him straightened out, and he battled on well up the run-in to get the better of the highly-promising Ballagh.

This is solid form. The first two horses came clear, and the third horse was Shantou Bob, who had run subsequent Challow Hurdle runner-up Vyta Du Roc to a nose in a Grade 2 race at Sandown on his previous run, when subsequent winner Tara Point was back in third. Also, the winning time was really good, the fastest hurdle race of the day and almost bang on Racing Post par. This race has been won in the past by Inglis Drever, No Refuge, Carruthers, The New One and last year by Deputy Dan, and Three Musketeers could be very good. Both the winner and the runner-up – both, incidentally, formerly trained by Charlie Swan – could go on to much better things.

This was just Three Musketeers’ second run over hurdles – he had won his maiden well on his only previous run – and just his third run under all codes (his previous run was in a point-to-point), so he has lots of scope for progression. It was interesting that Dan Skelton said afterwards that he might skip Cheltenham and possibly run at Aintree instead. Perhaps the trainer feels that his horse is a little immature for the hurly burly of Cheltenham. The ground was soft here, as it was for his debut over hurdles, but he did finish second in his point-to-point on good to yielding ground, so he could be okay on better ground as well. He is an exciting prospect.

[Old Vic]

@CheltenhamZone: Willie Mullins on ATR suggests that Gitane Du Berlais could skip Cheltenham for Aintree, whilst Morning Run likely to wait for Fairyhouse.