Race 6 : Epsom Oaks 2012

[Statto]

Morning all...a flurry of activity at last. A few more stats or rather a alternative view on them from Declan Rix on ATR

Fourteen fillies are set to take their chance in etching a name in racing history in Friday's Investec Oaks at Epsom. Ouija Board, Sariska, Snow Fairy are a few of the recent girls to go on and prove their victory around Epsom's undulating course was no fluke. Epsom is a test like no other; speed, stamina and balance are just some of the key physical attributes required to win on the Downs. Throw in the much-needed mental steel, another pre-requisite for success here and this truly is the greatest test of all. Some, more than others, know exactly what is needed to win this middle distance prize. Aidan O’Brien has won three Epsom Oaks in seasons gone by and has had numerous placed efforts to boot. William Haggas is another trainer worthy of respect with what he runs – one entry here has yielded a winner. Look Here winning the Oaks in 2008 gave Ralph Beckett his crowning moment; her win in 2008 the biggest priced winner in the last ten years, going in at 33-1. Four of the last ten favourites, one being joint-favourite, have obliged so it could be wise not to stir too far from the first four in the betting. Other trends worth noting include that all of the last ten winners had already won over a mile plus and all had between two and six starts pre-Epsom. A win at Listed level or higher was also important for six of the last ten victor

s.

VERDICT:
Given the unpredictable nature of filly’s nothing can be taken for granted, especially given the occasion these girls will encounter. Maybe, on form, probably deserves to be favourite, but her pedigree doesn’t leave one brimming with confidence about seeing out this tough test. Some stats also say she can’t win and is worth taking on at the prices. The Fugue has been impressive throughout her career, but her draw in two is a worry, especially at the prices. The babyish Vow obviously has an engine, but Epsom is not a track to race on while still learning and so, the verdict will go to KISSED. A chance is taken on Pour Moi’s half-sister. Ground conditions may not be favourable, but she is by a sire who appreciates good ground and her aforementioned half-sibling certainly went on it. Hopefully she runs. Colima and Coquet can outrun their odds, but the latter looks capable of a big run. The daughter of Derby winning sire, Sir Percy, has done very little wrong in four career starts. She is gusty and has handled a camber at Goodwood, a variable in which very little of this field have tasted. Interestingly, her trainer also has a fine record at Epsom. Of the big outsiders, Was looks the race value.
1) KISSED, 2) Coquet, 3) The Fugue

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[Statto]

1. BETTERBETTERBETTER
Galileo — Jude (Darshaan)
Trainer: A O'Brien | Jockey: C O'Donoghue
Well-bred daughter of Galileo whose three half-sisters have all been placed in this race. Unraced at two, but making up for lost time with one win and two placed efforts in above-average races. Opening maiden defeat looks decent form and was just touched off in awful ground at Chester, in the Cheshire Oaks. Same race used by connections for last year’s runner-up in this race and with faster ground sure to suit may be a touched over-priced given family exploits. Needs to improve, however.

2. COLIMA
Authorized — Coyote (Indian Ridge)
Trainer: R Beckett | Jockey: J Crowley
Comes into the race with a lowly rating of 98, but may prove a bit unwise to rule her out on that basis. The trainer won this in 2008 with a strikingly similar type and the daughter of Authorized made a pleasing return to action in the Lingfield Oaks trial (polytrack). That race was not run to suit and looks sure to improve on that effort. Trainer very good with his fillies, but does need to up her game. Inexperienced for a test of this nature, has slight trip worries and rattling quick ground may not suit, but can’t be entirely dismissed.

3. COQUET
Sir Percy — One So Marvellous (Nashwan)
Trainer: H Morrison | Jockey: R Havlin
A filly that didn’t cost a lot at the sales but has a nice pedigree. Not done a lot wrong in four starts, winning three on the bounce after finishing fourth on debut. Mixed messages from form, but just might be one of those fillies that only does enough in the heat of battle. Went around Goodwood in fine style when winning the Height of Fashion Stakes last time out, with a penalty, so Epsom should hold no fears. Sure to come on a tonne for that run and this gutsy filly is a likable type. May go well at a price. One of two for trainer in the race.

4. DEVOTION
Dylan Thomas — Bright Bank (Sadler´s Wells)
Trainer: A O'Brien | Jockey: R Hughes
The outsider of the Ballydoyle six and needs to take a massive leap forward to figure. Did take a step in the right direction last time out and given her sire progressed really well, she may too. Never doubt how much a filly can progress and given she only has seven pounds to find with the highest rated filly in the line-up she may out run her odds, but is hard to fancy as a whole.

5. KAILANI
Monsun — Kazzia (Zinaad)
Trainer: M Al Zarooni | Jockey: M Barzalona
Connections shocked the racing world in allowing the young, up-and-coming talent, Mickael Barzalona, to ride this daughter of Monsun ahead of Frankie Dettori. She comes into the race unbeaten after a Yarmouth maiden win which was followed by a Listed romp at HQ. Her form leaves her with a little to find, but her dam did the Guineas/Oaks double and her sire has a good record with middle distance horses. Mahmood Al Zarooni is fast becoming a big trainer and has a good record with fillies. Looks sure to stay and thoroughly unexposed. Has an each-way squeak in a decent race even allowing for her lack of experience.

6. KISSED
Galileo — Gwynn (Darshaan)
Trainer: A O'Brien | Jockey: R Moore
A half-sister to last year’s Epsom Derby winner, Pour Moi, you could say this race was made for her. She is well-bred and her performances on track mark her down as a serious threat. Two easy wins, by an aggregate of ten lengths, put her in the ‘could be anything’ category. The daughter of Galileo is an uncomplicated filly with a good attitude and has a touch of class. Her lack of experience is still a small concern, but the biggest worry is quick going. Both wins have been on soft and she has a high knee action. A big threat if coping with faster underfoot conditions with the in-form Ryan Moore booked.

7. MAYBE
Galileo — Sumora (Danehill)
Trainer: A O'Brien | Jockey: J P O'Brien
Unbeaten in her two-year-old career notching up wins in the Chesham against the boys and in the Moyglare Stud Stakes (Group One). Stuck in the mud when short-priced beaten favourite in 1000 Guineas and a return to a firmer surface will suit. Never come close to running over this trip and mixed signals from pedigree, but by a Derby winner from the same family as an Oaks heroine and a Derby hero which gives hope. Stamina doubts, but has a big shout with class guaranteed. Also, the choice of Joseph O’Brien.

8. NAYARRA
Cape Cross — Massarra (Danehill)
Trainer: M Channon | Jockey: M Dwyer
Group One winning filly in Italy at two who looks a big price considering. A diminutive daughter of Cape Cross that has a thoroughly exposed look to her, is a huge doubt to stay the trip on breeding, but pieces of her form entitle her to an outside each-way squeak. Trainer has a terrific record with fillies and her run last time out seemed to point to a step-up in trip. Hard to recommend, but price looks a little too big.

9. SHIROCCO STAR
Shirocco — Spectral Star (Unfuwain)
Trainer: H Morrison | Jockey: D Holland
Hughie Morrison’s second entry. Thrice raced daughter of Shirocco has yet to finish out of the frame. Maiden form nothing spectacular, but took a massive step forward in a filly’s trial at Newbury. Was just under four lengths ahead of the 1000 Guineas runner-up, who had the benefit of race fitness. One would have to give her an each-way chance on that form especially when she promises to stay. Trainer feels softer ground would suit her better, however.

10. THE FUGUE
Dansili — Twyla Tharp (Sadler´s Wells)
Trainer: J Gosden | Jockey: W Buick
Made hugely impressive winning debut – very slowly away before scything through pack to win cosily. Second career start came in the 1000 Guineas where she acquitted herself very well after being struck into early, on ground that was far too slow. A faster surface saw her win the Musidora (Sariska did Musidora/Oaks double in 2009) impressively, but still lingering doubts about bare form. Stamina questions to answer, but dam was second in Ribblesdale (1m 4f) and sire has produced decent middle distance horses like Harbinger and Rail Link. Lightly-raced filly that should go well for bullish connections. However the draw could have been kinder.

11. TOPTEMPO
Halling — Topatoo (Bahamian Bounty)
Trainer: M Tompkins | Jockey: T Durcan
Encouraging debut run behind subsequent Fillies Mile winner but hasn’t gone on from there. Comes into the race as the lowest rated filly and her odds reflect her chances. Look elsewhere.

12. TWIRL
Galileo — Butterfly Cove (Storm Cat)
Trainer: A O'Brien | Jockey: P Smullen
Four racetrack appearances for this daughter of Galileo who has twice been beaten when favourite, once at odds-on. A massive punt went south in the Musidora Stakes, a race in which the trainer has a terrible record (may even use the trial to gauge where he stands). Not for the first time she carried her head in an unappealing manor and may not be the most straight forward. Got in an unnecessary pace battle with rank outsider at York and was comprehensively beaten by The Fugue. Not sure to stay and hard to recommend with plenty question marks. Coffin box draw in stall 1 will not help either.

13. VOW
Motivator — Frog (Akarad)
Trainer: W Haggas | Jockey: J Murtagh
Twice-raced unbeaten daughter of Derby winner Motivator who has no stamina doubts coming from a top middle distance family – half-brothers include Beaten Up and Harris Tweed. Made a hugely impressive debut in a soft ground Newbury maiden before going on to win the Lingfield Oaks trial (ran on polytrack) again, in striking fashion. An inability to travel on debut (maybe due to greenness) and then hanging both ways at Lingfield means she is still learning her trade which is a worry around Epsom. That being said, she obviously has a big engine and her trainer has a flawless record in this race; one runner yielding a winner. Really quick ground may not suit, but she is a likeable filly who will stay. Big race jockey, Johnny Murtagh, aboard.

14. WAS
Galileo — Alluring Park (Green Desert)
Trainer: A O'Brien | Jockey: Jeffernan
Just the two race starts, but form looks above average. Maiden win at the Curragh working out nicely and made an encouraging seasonal reappearance behind a filly who is Royal Ascot bound. Given trainers gently, gently approach she should come forward significantly from that run, but is another that needs to raise her game. Bloodline sees her related to Japanese sprinter Shinko Forest, but also to Derby winner New Approach. Will enjoy the quick ground and if seeing out the trip well may run better than her odds indicate. Lack of experience also a worry.

[Statto]

1. BETTERBETTERBETTER
Galileo — Jude (Darshaan)
Trainer: A O'Brien | Jockey: C O'Donoghue
Well-bred daughter of Galileo whose three half-sisters have all been placed in this race. Unraced at two, but making up for lost time with one win and two placed efforts in above-average races. Opening maiden defeat looks decent form and was just touched off in awful ground at Chester, in the Cheshire Oaks. Same race used by connections for last year’s runner-up in this race and with faster ground sure to suit may be a touched over-priced given family exploits. Needs to improve, however.

2. COLIMA
Authorized — Coyote (Indian Ridge)
Trainer: R Beckett | Jockey: J Crowley
Comes into the race with a lowly rating of 98, but may prove a bit unwise to rule her out on that basis. The trainer won this in 2008 with a strikingly similar type and the daughter of Authorized made a pleasing return to action in the Lingfield Oaks trial (polytrack). That race was not run to suit and looks sure to improve on that effort. Trainer very good with his fillies, but does need to up her game. Inexperienced for a test of this nature, has slight trip worries and rattling quick ground may not suit, but can’t be entirely dismissed.

3. COQUET
Sir Percy — One So Marvellous (Nashwan)
Trainer: H Morrison | Jockey: R Havlin
A filly that didn’t cost a lot at the sales but has a nice pedigree. Not done a lot wrong in four starts, winning three on the bounce after finishing fourth on debut. Mixed messages from form, but just might be one of those fillies that only does enough in the heat of battle. Went around Goodwood in fine style when winning the Height of Fashion Stakes last time out, with a penalty, so Epsom should hold no fears. Sure to come on a tonne for that run and this gutsy filly is a likable type. May go well at a price. One of two for trainer in the race.

4. DEVOTION
Dylan Thomas — Bright Bank (Sadler´s Wells)
Trainer: A O'Brien | Jockey: R Hughes
The outsider of the Ballydoyle six and needs to take a massive leap forward to figure. Did take a step in the right direction last time out and given her sire progressed really well, she may too. Never doubt how much a filly can progress and given she only has seven pounds to find with the highest rated filly in the line-up she may out run her odds, but is hard to fancy as a whole.

5. KAILANI
Monsun — Kazzia (Zinaad)
Trainer: M Al Zarooni | Jockey: M Barzalona
Connections shocked the racing world in allowing the young, up-and-coming talent, Mickael Barzalona, to ride this daughter of Monsun ahead of Frankie Dettori. She comes into the race unbeaten after a Yarmouth maiden win which was followed by a Listed romp at HQ. Her form leaves her with a little to find, but her dam did the Guineas/Oaks double and her sire has a good record with middle distance horses. Mahmood Al Zarooni is fast becoming a big trainer and has a good record with fillies. Looks sure to stay and thoroughly unexposed. Has an each-way squeak in a decent race even allowing for her lack of experience.

6. KISSED
Galileo — Gwynn (Darshaan)
Trainer: A O'Brien | Jockey: R Moore
A half-sister to last year’s Epsom Derby winner, Pour Moi, you could say this race was made for her. She is well-bred and her performances on track mark her down as a serious threat. Two easy wins, by an aggregate of ten lengths, put her in the ‘could be anything’ category. The daughter of Galileo is an uncomplicated filly with a good attitude and has a touch of class. Her lack of experience is still a small concern, but the biggest worry is quick going. Both wins have been on soft and she has a high knee action. A big threat if coping with faster underfoot conditions with the in-form Ryan Moore booked.

7. MAYBE
Galileo — Sumora (Danehill)
Trainer: A O'Brien | Jockey: J P O'Brien
Unbeaten in her two-year-old career notching up wins in the Chesham against the boys and in the Moyglare Stud Stakes (Group One). Stuck in the mud when short-priced beaten favourite in 1000 Guineas and a return to a firmer surface will suit. Never come close to running over this trip and mixed signals from pedigree, but by a Derby winner from the same family as an Oaks heroine and a Derby hero which gives hope. Stamina doubts, but has a big shout with class guaranteed. Also, the choice of Joseph O’Brien.

8. NAYARRA
Cape Cross — Massarra (Danehill)
Trainer: M Channon | Jockey: M Dwyer
Group One winning filly in Italy at two who looks a big price considering. A diminutive daughter of Cape Cross that has a thoroughly exposed look to her, is a huge doubt to stay the trip on breeding, but pieces of her form entitle her to an outside each-way squeak. Trainer has a terrific record with fillies and her run last time out seemed to point to a step-up in trip. Hard to recommend, but price looks a little too big.

9. SHIROCCO STAR
Shirocco — Spectral Star (Unfuwain)
Trainer: H Morrison | Jockey: D Holland
Hughie Morrison’s second entry. Thrice raced daughter of Shirocco has yet to finish out of the frame. Maiden form nothing spectacular, but took a massive step forward in a filly’s trial at Newbury. Was just under four lengths ahead of the 1000 Guineas runner-up, who had the benefit of race fitness. One would have to give her an each-way chance on that form especially when she promises to stay. Trainer feels softer ground would suit her better, however.

10. THE FUGUE
Dansili — Twyla Tharp (Sadler´s Wells)
Trainer: J Gosden | Jockey: W Buick
Made hugely impressive winning debut – very slowly away before scything through pack to win cosily. Second career start came in the 1000 Guineas where she acquitted herself very well after being struck into early, on ground that was far too slow. A faster surface saw her win the Musidora (Sariska did Musidora/Oaks double in 2009) impressively, but still lingering doubts about bare form. Stamina questions to answer, but dam was second in Ribblesdale (1m 4f) and sire has produced decent middle distance horses like Harbinger and Rail Link. Lightly-raced filly that should go well for bullish connections. However the draw could have been kinder.

11. TOPTEMPO
Halling — Topatoo (Bahamian Bounty)
Trainer: M Tompkins | Jockey: T Durcan
Encouraging debut run behind subsequent Fillies Mile winner but hasn’t gone on from there. Comes into the race as the lowest rated filly and her odds reflect her chances. Look elsewhere.

12. TWIRL
Galileo — Butterfly Cove (Storm Cat)
Trainer: A O'Brien | Jockey: P Smullen
Four racetrack appearances for this daughter of Galileo who has twice been beaten when favourite, once at odds-on. A massive punt went south in the Musidora Stakes, a race in which the trainer has a terrible record (may even use the trial to gauge where he stands). Not for the first time she carried her head in an unappealing manor and may not be the most straight forward. Got in an unnecessary pace battle with rank outsider at York and was comprehensively beaten by The Fugue. Not sure to stay and hard to recommend with plenty question marks. Coffin box draw in stall 1 will not help either.

13. VOW
Motivator — Frog (Akarad)
Trainer: W Haggas | Jockey: J Murtagh
Twice-raced unbeaten daughter of Derby winner Motivator who has no stamina doubts coming from a top middle distance family – half-brothers include Beaten Up and Harris Tweed. Made a hugely impressive debut in a soft ground Newbury maiden before going on to win the Lingfield Oaks trial (ran on polytrack) again, in striking fashion. An inability to travel on debut (maybe due to greenness) and then hanging both ways at Lingfield means she is still learning her trade which is a worry around Epsom. That being said, she obviously has a big engine and her trainer has a flawless record in this race; one runner yielding a winner. Really quick ground may not suit, but she is a likeable filly who will stay. Big race jockey, Johnny Murtagh, aboard.

14. WAS
Galileo — Alluring Park (Green Desert)
Trainer: A O'Brien | Jockey: Jeffernan
Just the two race starts, but form looks above average. Maiden win at the Curragh working out nicely and made an encouraging seasonal reappearance behind a filly who is Royal Ascot bound. Given trainers gently, gently approach she should come forward significantly from that run, but is another that needs to raise her game. Bloodline sees her related to Japanese sprinter Shinko Forest, but also to Derby winner New Approach. Will enjoy the quick ground and if seeing out the trip well may run better than her odds indicate. Lack of experience also a worry.

[Statto]

Simon Holt sees Mikael Barzalona making the headlines ...would be a bitter pill for Dettori.

Aidan O'Brien is mega-handed for the Investec Oaks with six declared and one of those, Maybe, heads the market after finishing third in the 1,000 Guineas on her reappearance having been unbeaten as a two-year-old.

The form of the 1,000 Guineas has worked out very well, with the exception of the first two home. Winner Homecoming Queen was quite well beaten in the Irish version last weekend and Starscope, the runner-up, has been beaten since too.

Others have come out of the race and won. The Fugue, for example, was back in fourth and she won the Musidora Stakes well next time.

Maybe is by Galileo but she's out of a fairly fast mare and, though there are some relations in her pedigree such as Dancing Rain, last year's Oaks winner, I think there has to be a slight doubt that she will get the trip.

It's a big step up in distance from a mile to a mile-and-a-half and I think she's short enough in an Oaks that looks to have a look more depth to it than the Derby.

Another O'Brien runner, Kissed, is very interesting if she takes part. She needs a bit more juice in the ground but she's closely related to Pour Moi and was very impressive at Navan last time. She could be anything.

Twirl was beaten by The Fugue at York, Betterbetterbetter was beaten in the Cheshire Oaks and Devotion looks a bit of a longshot as does Was so Maybe, is probably, the leading contender from Ballydoyle.

Of the others there are some serious fillies in this race.

The Fugue was hugely impressive at York's Dante meeting beating O'Brien's Twirl by four-and-a-half lengths with lots in hand. She's stoutly bred on the dam's side and must surely play a big part in this race, particularly if she improves again.

My only slight concern is that this is her third fairly quick run after the 1,000 Guineas and Musidora but she clearly has a lot of ability.

The same can be said about Vow, William Haggas' daughter of Motivator out of a very successful broodmare called Frog who has also produced Harris Tweed and Beaten Up, there's absolutely no question on grounds of stamina for her.

She won the Oaks Trial at Lingfield, beating Colima by three-and-a-quarter lengths. Colima was running on strongly at the finish and she could well improve but she's obviously got a bit of ground to make up on Vow.

My only concern with Vow would be her evident inexperience so far. She hung badly right in the straight at Lingfield and it's just a possibility that a race of this nature around this difficult course might come a little bit early in her career.

The one I think could be the hardest to beat of all is Godolphin's filly KAILANI.

She is unbeaten in two starts and this daughter of Monsun is out of previous Oaks winner Kazzia who has produced good horses such as Eastern Anthem.

Kailani was a hugely impressive winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Newmarket Guineas meeting beating Hazel Lavery, who is quite a decent filly, by seven lengths.

She's absolutely bred to stay a mile-and-a-half and though the ground will be very different to her Newmarket experience her dam was effective on any ground and at odds of around 9-1 she represents good value.

With many good fillies in a race full of depth it's difficult to choose between them but at the prices I'll go for a Godolphin Classic win in the hands of Mikael Barzalona - not Frankie Dettori.

[mayo]

Irish view from Ryan McElligott


KISSED NOT TO BE MISSED IN OAKS

4.05 Epsom Downs: The Oaks
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Aidan O'Brien sends a six strong team into battle for Friday's Investec Oaks as he attempts to win this race for the fourth time and continue his domination of this season's Classics.

Heading the Ballydoyle team is last year's champion European juvenile filly Maybe who will be ridden by Joseph O'Brien. Following her unbeaten five race two-year-old campaign, Maybe started back in the English 1000 Guineas when she had to settle for third behind Homecoming Queen.

She was beaten ten lengths on that occasion but in her defence it was her first race of the season so she can be expected to have made good progress from that run. In addition the soft ground probably didn't play to her strengths and the 1000 Guineas was probably a race that did not show her off to best effect.

Maybe now takes a major step up in trip and this is a significant unknown as the Oaks will be the first time in her career that she has ventured beyond a mile. Her supporters can take encouragement from the fact that she is closely related to last year's Oaks winner Dancing Rain but with her stamina over this distance totally unproven it could pay to look at the other Ballydoyle challengers.

Kissed is a fascinating filly and comes here undefeated following two wins at Navan. There are concerns about the ground for her and connections have stated that she would only run if there was an ease in the ground. If Kissed gets the go ahead to line up she can be expected to make a major impact.

The three-parts sister to Pour Moi looked a filly of some potential on her debut at Navan last October and she then reinforced that impression on her return in the Salsabil Stakes when she made all the running to defeat her rivals by eight and a half lengths. This is a far greater test for Kissed but the merit of her Navan performance was put into perspective when the Salsabil runner-up Aaraas went on to run very well in defeat to claim second in the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes at Naas recently. After just two outings she could still have much more to offer and she is the one to side if she is allowed to take her chance here.

Of the other Ballydoyle contenders Betterbetterbetter would need to step forward on the form she showed when beaten by Good Morning Star in the Cheshire Oaks. Her family do have quite an affinity with Epsom though as her immediate relations Quarter Moon, Yesterday and All My Loving all reached the frame in the Oaks.

Devotion comes here off a career best effort in a 1000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown where she chased home Yellow Rosebud. This is a far tougher race though and she has a good deal to find with a few of these.

Twirl, who is the mount of Pat Smullen, began her season with two solid runs. She started off with a second to Chrysanthemum in the Park Express Stakes at the Curragh and then filled the same position behind The Fugue in the Musidora Stakes. She should run a solid race but she has four and a half lengths to find with The Fugue which leaves her short of the required standard.

A decent showing from Was wouldn't come as a major surprise and if Kissed did not take part she would be the each way recommendation. Another daughter of Galileo, she is out of a half-sister to the Derby winner New Approach and looked a filly with a good future when she made a winning debut at the Curragh in August.

She didn't run again until lining up in the Blue Wind Stakes where she had to settle for third behind Princess Highway. She will have to improve markedly from that effort to play a part here but Was is entitled to have progressed a good deal from her Blue Wind run. It should be remembered that in the lead up to that race Aidan O'Brien did report that she had suffered a slight setback during the spring so there could be more than just normal improvement to come from her. In the absence of Kissed she would represent a lively each way selection.

Recommended

4.05 Kissed 1pt e/w

[flatman]

Very hard to call this imo.

Just for an interest I'll have a small ew on betterbetterbetter and devotion and maybe put them in a forecast ( should get the wholepot if it comes in ).

[Lester]

Kissed Non runner

[Forced Kin]

someone put 10k each way on was. JP walked track with connections earlier

[Lester]

someone put 10k each way on was. JP walked track with connections earlier

Bet landed

[Yeehaa]

Mordin ...

THE FUGUE SHOULD HAVE WON THE OAKS

The Oaks reminded us just how easily the track at Epsom generates major traffic problems. There were a whole series of incidents when the already moderate early pace slowed even more for a few seconds after about three furlongs. The field compressed, causing several horses in the rear to get in each other's way.

The principal sufferer was THE FUGUE (38) who had to be snatched up sharply, losing about two and a half lengths and momentum.

The way that The Fugue finished down the outside to get beat only three parts of a length suggests strongly that she should have won this race by a length or two. If she had she'd have equalled the speed rating of 39 that I gave her for her win in the Musidora.

The winner ended up being WAS (38) who clearly benefited from racing up close to the pace and staying out of trouble. Having said that Was clocked a perfectly respectable time and kept on strongly to hold off the late runs of the second and third.

On her previous start Was had finished third to the smart Princess Highway when not fully fit. That was her sole loss in three tries. At this stage I have my doubts about her being able to beat Princess Highway, The Fugue or stablemate Kissed in the Irish Oaks. But she's done pretty much everything you could ask and has the potential to develop.

Runner up SHIROCCO STAR (38) stayed on strongly and very nearly got up. Clearly she improved for the step up to a mile and a half. Her trainer noted last year that easier ground would suit her, just as it did her sire Shirocco. So I'm going to be cautious about her chances of acting on the faster Summer ground that now looks likely to prevail.

VOW (37) handled the track better than I thought she would and moved best for a long way. I thought she was going to go and win the race when she came to challenge two furlongs out. But she lacked the pace to cope with the sprint finish as well as her rivals. She's a deep chested, strong filly that would have appreciated a stronger gallop, a more testing track, softer ground or a longer distance.