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  1. #1
    Administrator fjadmin's Avatar
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    Feb 2012

    Race 6 : Epsom Oaks 2012

    Oaks entries
    1-41 The Fugue16 3 9-0 John Gosden — 104 129
    1111-3 Maybe26 3 9-0 A P OŽBrien 116 113 128
    1-1 Kissed33 3 9-0 A P OŽBrien — 96 127
    1-11 Dalkala17 3 9-0 A De Royer-Dupre — 104 126
    331-29 Nayarra26 3 9-0 Mick Channon 106 105 122
    31-22 Twirl16 3 9-0 A P OŽBrien — 106 120
    146-32 Devotion19 3 9-0 A P OŽBrien — 112 119
    213-7 Firdaws14 3 9-0 Roger Varian 101 102 112
    312-2 Hazel Lavery26 3 9-0 Charles Hills 95 100 110
    1-3 Was16 3 9-0 A P OŽBrien — 80 110
    411- Coquet216 3 9-0 Hughie Morrison 94 106 109
    05-538 Arsaadi26 3 9-0 William Haggas 92 101 107
    11 Vow20 3 9-0 William Haggas — 54 104
    212 Betterbetterbetter23 3 9-0 A P OŽBrien — 94 103
    246-24 Everlong23 3 9-0 Peter Chapple-Hyam 89 92 103
    54-3 Toptempo14 3 9-0 Mark H Tompkins — 84 103
    218- Albamara252 3 9-0 Sir Mark Prescott Bt 85 86 101
    1-35 Lacily14 3 9-0 Mahmood Al Zarooni 79 81 100
    4-16 Morant Bay14 3 9-0 Sir Henry Cecil — 81 95
    1-2 Colima20 3 9-0 Ralph Beckett — 68 94
    21-2 Shirocco Star14 3 9-0 Hughie Morrison 76 71 90
    1 Pink Damsel14 3 9-0 Roger Varian — — —
    Last edited by Lester; 19th May 2012 at 06:28 AM. Reason: Entries updated

  2. #2
    Forced Kin
    Aidan O'Brien's Kissed was cut for the Epsom Oaks after a facile win in the Listed Salsabil Stakes at Navan.

    Sky Bet now go 9-2 (from 8s) for the Classic after the sister of Derby hero Pour Moi won on the bridle, beating Aaraas by eight lengths hard-held.

    Joseph O'Brien gave the daughter of Galileo a positive ride and the result was never in doubt for the 2-5 favourite.

    The winning rider said: "She's very uncomplicated and she's a lovely big scopey mare. She's got a great attitude too.

    "You'd have to be delighted with her performance as she jumped and travelled and never looked like she was going to get in trouble.

    "It was slow ground out there and she got a little bit tired, so hopefully she can improve.

    "Her brother won the Derby last year, so you'd have to be hopeful she would handle the track (if she went to Epsom)

  3. #3
    Senior Member
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    Mar 2012
    O'Brien has them all !

    Kissed (4) , Maybe (6) , Homecoming Queen (8) , Kailani (10) , Wading (10) , The Fugue (16) , Vow (20) , Waldlerche (20) , Diala (25) , Inchina (25) , Wonderful (25) , Firdaws (28) , Alla Speranza (33) , Betterbetterbetter (33) , Dalkala (33) , Discourse (33) , Dreams Of Fire (33) , Epoque (33) , Eternal Bounty (33) , Falls Of Lora (33) - Others 33 or more

  4. #4
    Senior Member Lester's Avatar
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    Apr 2012
    There are potential Classic clues on offer at Naas as Was tries to book her Investec Oaks ticket in the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Blue Wind Stakes.

    The close relation to Derby hero New Approach couldn't have been more impressive when making a successful debut at the Curragh last summer and can be backed at just 20/1 for Epsom.

    Aaraas and Cleofila were a long way behind her stable companion Kissed in the Salsabil Stakes, so trainer Aidan O'Brien should have a good idea of the threat of that pair, but John Oxx has taken this Group Three prize twice since 2007 and his Limerick winner Shebella is a potential improver.

    Dermot Weld's Princess Highway and the David Wachman-trained Aloof complete a strong line-up.

  5. #5
    Forced Kin

    Ballydoyle vs the rest

    Quote Originally Posted by flatman View Post
    O'Brien has them all !

    Kissed (4) , Maybe (6) , Homecoming Queen (8) , Kailani (10) , Wading (10) , The Fugue (16) , Vow (20) , Waldlerche (20) , Diala (25) , Inchina (25) , Wonderful (25) , Firdaws (28) , Alla Speranza (33) , Betterbetterbetter (33) , Dalkala (33) , Discourse (33) , Dreams Of Fire (33) , Epoque (33) , Eternal Bounty (33) , Falls Of Lora (33) - Others 33 or more
    Maybe not ...

    The Fugue produced an imperious display to win the Tattersalls Musidora Stakes at York.

    There had been fears that John Gosden's filly could be off the track for some time after initial concerns that she had been struck into when finishing fourth in the QIPCO 1000 Guineas on her seasonal reappearance.

    However, the injury wasn't as serious as first feared and the daughter of Dansili was able to make a quick return to the track for the 10 furlong contest on the Knavesmire.

    Aniseed quickly took on and passed the heavily supported Twirl for the lead despite missing the break and led the field at a decent gallop into the straight.

    The big two players travelled well in behind and challenged either side of William Haggas' filly with Joseph O'Brien the first to get serious aboard the favourite.

    As they raced side-by-side, O'Brien became more and more animated in the saddle in stark contrast to William Buick who was motionless aboard his Lady Lloyd-Webber owned mount.

    When push came to shove, The Fugue quickened in the style of a seriously smart performer to provide Gosden with back-to-back wins in the race by a margin of four and a half lengths (from Twirl) which could easily have been many more.

    Buick said: "She felt very good. She was a little bit keen early on and she's still inexperienced, so when horses come around her, she's a very reactive filly.

    "I just tried to get her to settle and she picked up really well - she's class.

    "The Guineas wasn't a very nice experience for her. She wasn't unlucky but she came out worst in a barging match and I'm just glad to have her back.

    "At Epsom you need tactical speed and she certainly has that."

    Gosden added: "She was very inexperienced running in the Guineas off the back of a maiden win but she's a lovely filly. She ran great at Newmarket but we're back on decent ground and all being well she'll be going to Epsom.

    "I just wouldn't want to see the ground go soft. If it does she'd revert to the French Oaks but she has a good turn of foot and William felt she'd stay very well. She's classy and showed it today."

    The bookmakers were impressed, Ladbrokes, Coral and William Hill cut The Fugue to 7-2 for the Investec Oaks, Sky Bet are 4-1 and Boylesports a top-priced 5-1.

    Sky Bet's Richard Horner said: "The Fugue has entered the Oaks picture in style and has been cut to 4/1 from 10/1 following her impressive win over the well backed favourite Twirl.

    "She and Vow, trained by William Haggas, will spearhead the challenge against the Ballydoyle battalion on June 1st at Epsom."

  6. #6
    Some 22 fillies remain in the Investec Oaks, including all of the leading market fancies.

    These are headed by John Gosden's impressive Musidora winner The Fugue and William Haggas' Vow, who took the Lingfield Oaks Trial.

    O'Brien's team can be drawn from Betterbetterbetter, Devotion, Kissed, Maybe, Twirl and Was.

  7. #7
    One version of stats

    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

    • Sired by a winner of a group 1 or 2
    • Had 1 or 2 runs this season
    • Ran in the past 35 days and achieved career high RPR ie The Fugue & Vow
    • Won a listed or group race (or placed in group 1)
    • Won over 1M+
    • Won last time out (or 2nd in an Oaks Trial)
    • Finished in first 2 in a recognised Oaks Trial ie The Fugue & Vow
    • Finished in first 4 in Fillies’ Mile as a 2yo
    • Trained by Ed Dunlop, Henry Cecil or Aidan O’Brien (first string)
    • Sent off favourite
    Last edited by Sefton; 20th May 2012 at 08:33 AM.

  8. #8
    Senior Member Statto's Avatar
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    Apr 2012
    Racecaller 2012 stats ...they are posted everywhere now

    Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


    Race for 3yos


    British bred: 4-8-50

    Irish bred: 3-8-55

    American bred: 2-3-15

    German bred: 1-0-3

    Other: 0-0-2

    9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 or 2 winner (exception’s sire retired after 3 runs but was fancied for the Triple Crown races in USA

    All 10 winners were born in February, March or April

    Dosage Profile

    Composite Dosage Index of last 10 winners is 1.28

    Composite Centre of Distribution of last 10 winners is 0.136

    Recent/Past Form

    10 of 10 winners had had 2 to 7 career starts

    10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season

    6 of 10 winners won last time out (3 exceptions finished 2nd in an Oaks trial & other was 6th in the 1000 Guineas)

    9 of 10 winners achieved their RPR last time out

    10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days

    6 of 10 winners won at listed level or higher (2 exceptions finished 2nd in a group 1 & other 2 were 2nd in listed)

    5 of 10 winners won or placed in listed or group race as a 2yo (3 exceptions were unbeaten as 2yos & other 2 ran only in maidens as a 2yo)

    10 of 10 winners had won over 1M+

    2yo Form

    E B F "Makfi" Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (The Fugue): 01 (1-0-2)

    Moyglare Stud Stakes winner (Maybe): 245 (0-1-3)

    Silver Flash Stakes winner (Maybe): 50 (0-0-2)

    Meon Valley Stud Fillies Mile winner: 64 (0-0-2)

    Highest finisher from Fillies' Mille to run in this: 016916040 (2-0-9)

    Debutante Stakes winner (Maybe): 45 (0-0-2)

    Dubai Duty Free Pivotal' Fillies Conditions Stakes winner (Hazel Lavery): P0 (0-0-2)

    Montrose Stakes winner (Coquet): 684 (0-0-3)

    2 of 10 winners ran in the Fillies Mile as a 2yo, finishing 22

    3yo Form

    Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes winner (Vow): 801541 (2-0-6)

    Musidora Stakes winner (The Fugue): 8338516 (1-2-7)

    Irish 1000 Guineas winner: 2 (0-1-1)

    Salsabil Stakes winner (Kissed): 257 (0-1-3)

    Lingfield Oaks trial winner (Vow): 779029 (0-1-6)

    2 of 10 winners ran in the Whitley Stud Maiden Fillies' Stakes, finishing 11

    2 of 10 winners ran in the Sweetenham Stud Stakes, finishing 12

    2 of 10 winners ran in the Musidora Stakes, finishing 21

    The last 8 winners finished in the first 2 in a recognised Oaks trial (Musidora, Pretty Polly, Sweetenham, Height Of Fashion, Lingfield or Cheshire Oaks)

    Other 2 winners ran in English 1000 Guineas last time, finishing 16


    Aidan O’Brien (1-8-31) has won the race just once in the past 10 years despite having filled almost 25% of the total runners. His first strings have a record of 1-7-10.

    Henry Cecil (1-1-5) has won the race 8 times in the past 30 years, most recently with Light Shift in 2007.

    William Haggas (1-0-1) & Ralph Beckett (1-0-3) have saddled the winner in past 4 years.

    John Gosden (0-0-5) & Mick Channon (0-0-5) have both seen all 5 of their runners finish unplaced.

    Irish-trained runners have a record of 1-10-40, when omitting Aidan O’Brien’s runners their record becomes 0-2-9.


    8 of 10 winners were sent off 10/1 or shorter, though 2 of the last 4 winners have been priced between 20/1 and 33/1.

    Favourites (4-2-11) have a good recent record in this having won 4 of the last 10 and showing a level stakes profit of 2.71 over past 10 years.


    Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

    · Sired by a winner of a group 1 or 2

    · Dosage Index of around 1.28

    · Centre of Distribution of around 0.136

    · Had 1 or 2 runs this season

    · Ran in the past 35 days & achieved career high RPR last time

    · Won a listed or group race (or placed in group 1)

    · Won over 1M+

    · Won last time out (or 2nd in an Oaks Trial)

    · Finished in first 2 in a recognised Oaks Trial

    · Finished in first 2 in Fillies’ Mile as a 2yo

    · Trained by Henry Cecil or William Haggas

    · Favourite does well

  9. #9
    Senior Member Statto's Avatar
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    Apr 2012
    Mordin on the Oaks


    Mark Johnston has an amazing knack of training horses to run longer distances. And German sires tend to produce horses that excel over longer trips too. So it's perhaps not so surprising that Mark Johnston's Shirocco filly GOOD MORNING STAR (37) pulled off an upset win in testing ground in the Cheshire Oaks by staying on strongly in the closing stages.

    Good Morning Star is not very big and it looks like she's best when she can take advantage of this to nip around tight turns like those at Chester. So far she's run the furlongs or more three times around tight tracks and lost just once by half a length. She's probably only Listed class and may need tight turns to produce her best, but she's capable of winning again in pattern company on my ratings.

    Runner up BETTERBETTERBETTER (37) looked sure to win when kicking clear just after entering the short homestraight. But it looked like she idled in the lead and the soft ground exaggerated the effect of this and allowed the winner to catch and beat her a short head.

    My impression was that on faster ground or with a little more experience Betterbetterbetter would have won this by a couple of lengths. As I see it this run did nothing to diminish her chances of at least placing in the Oaks - a race where her stable seem to have a very strong hand.


    VOW (36) is a big bodied, heavy topped filly with a long stride. So I guess it's not surprising she got thrown wide by the tight home turn of Lingfield's Polytrack when winning the Oaks Trial. Thereafter she was unbalanced and drifted both ways up the straight but had so much in hand of her rivals she was able to sprint away from them anyway.

    The obvious question now is whether Vow will be able to handle the much tougher home turn at Epsom.

    Epsom's home bend is steeply downhill. There's a sharp turn into the straight which has a notorious counter-camber that unbalances many horses. You have to wonder whether it is going to suit Vow, especially at this very early stage of her career when she's only had two lifetime starts.

    If Vow had kept straight I can readily believe she'd have run two or three lengths faster. That would bump her rating up to 37 or 38 when I invoke my sectional timing formula. And that's certainly in the ballpark of what's needed at Epsom. However, after seeing this run, I have to say that if she were mine I'd be inclined to take up her entry in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) instead of risking her at Epsom.

    Vow has shown in both her outings to date that she can produce a serious burst of finishing speed. That's exactly what wins big races in France.

    The Jockey Club course at Chantilly, on which the Prix de Diane is run, is a mile and a half around, features a steep uphill section where the track rises ten metres and has a three furlong homestraight. It looks more suitable for Vow than Epsom to me.

    You could argue that the 10.5f of the Prix de Diane is a bit short for Vow as she stays a mile and a half and is so deep chested she'd probably have no trouble with the St Leger distance. But she blitzed her rivals with her sprint finish off a slow pace at Lingfield. So I don't think the cut back in trip in France would be a problem. The French race normally features a strong early pace too.

    You could also argue that Vow could have trouble beating the brilliant French filly Beauty Parlour at Chantilly. But I'd rather risk that than the possibility of her getting jarred up or worse coming down the hill at Epsom.

    Later on the Irish Oaks and the St Leger are logical targets for Vow. The Yorkshire Oaks and the Prix Vermeille would suit her as well.

  10. #10
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    Mar 2012
    Hughie Morrison admits he has not had the easiest few weeks preparing Coquet for her racecourse return in Thursday's Height of Fashion Stakes at Goodwood.

    Coquet still holds an entry in the Investec Oaks due to a fine two-year-old campaign which saw her win her final two starts.

    Jockey-of-the-moment Robert Havlin takes the mount on the daughter of Sir Percy in an interesting mile-and-a-quarter contest, where she must take on John Gosden's Gathering, among six rivals.

    "She wintered well but she didn't enjoy the cold, wet spring, so I had to back off her a bit," Morrison said of Coquet. "I probably maybe had to rush her a bit to get her ready for this, so I'd say she'll come on for the run.

    "She's a fairly straightforward, tough horse and as long as she stays a mile and a quarter, there should be some fun to be had.

    "I'd be surprised if she was ready enough to win, but you never know, and that's why I left her in the Oaks."

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