Announcement

Collapse

Fat Jockey Patrons

Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated.
Become a Patron!

You can also make a one-off donation here:
See more
See less

2013 Champion Chase

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • #31
    Finians the pick without the favourite


    My guess is that 2011 winner Sizing Europe (6/4) will run in this despite having the option of the Ryanair, but it’s a close call. He’s still got loads of ability and comfortably beat Rubi Light in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown at Christmas, (2m1f, soft.) He’s been wonderfully consistent, having won 14 of his 21 chases and finished no worse than 3rd, nor beaten more than 7½l, in the others. He loves Cheltenham and if he lines up, he’s the obvious one.

    However, he’s priced up as if he’s a definite runner (and on the assumption some of the others won’t run). Even if he does run, he might be one of the few to take Sprinter Sacre on, making it more likely he’d lose 2nd in consequence. Much as I love the horse, he’s appalling value in this market.

    Cue Card (7/2) is also in both the Champion Chase and Ryanair. Whilst the Ryanair looks the obvious race for him, I wouldn’t be surprised if he showed up here as he’s the horse that’s got nearest to giving Sprinter Sacre a race so far and he was impressive in the Haldon over an extended 2m1f, (good to soft). It’s hard to be sure but he may have been coming to the end of his tether when winning the Ascot Chase (2m5f, soft) and the owner was clearly keen to contest the Championship race not the Ryanair. He obviously stays well at 2m which would help him in the battle for 2nd, but equally he loves to front run which might make him susceptible to losing 2nd by taking Sprinter Sacre on. He’s also on the short side given he is at best 50:50 to run.

    Wishfull Thinking (5/1) would be better off in the Ryanair but the same connections’ Menorah contests that so he runs here. Whilst he’s had all sorts of breathing problems he’s a good horse on his day and I can see him running on past better, but beaten, 2 milers to take 2nd. He doesn’t have the toe of Sizing Europe, Cue Card or Finian’s Rainbow though and when you factor in the chance of his having a day where his breathing catches him out (stopped to nothing at Kempton 2 runs ago) 5/1 isn’t big enough unless you’re convinced virtually all the main protagonists won’t run.

    Sanctuaire (11/2) looks a pure 2miler and will run unless the ground is bad. Having tried to blaze away in the Tingle Creek and ending up tired, Ruby Walsh sensibly tried holding him up in the Victor Chandler. That didn’t work either but both those races have been on testing ground in the middle of winter and Santcuaire is miles better on good ground in the spring. It’s hard to imagine the likely improvement for a sound surface will enable him to put it up to the favourite, but it could easily be good enough for 2nd. He is a temperamental character though and he could easily spit the dummy. All in all 11/2 is about right.

    The consensus during the season has been that last year’s winner Finian’s Rainbow (13/2) was more likely to run in the Ryanair or Gold Cup to keep him apart from Sprinter Sacre. However, after bombing twice on very testing ground over intermediate distances, he hasn’t proved his stamina and now looks set to defend his crown.

    It’s always hard to know whether it’s the ground that has been the problem in a case like this or whether the horse has an issue. Interestingly, Barry Geraghty thought the ground when he won the Melling last April was as soft as he wants. It was officially good, good to soft in places, though the times might imply it was verging on good to soft. Ignoring a race where he started 2/13, he’d not run on worse than good to soft over fences in 8 runs before this season, though he’d run creditably 4 years ago in the Challow on his one try on a testing surface over hurdles.

    I’m inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt and he was disappointing in his prep last season before winning this. He looks the classic Henderson type who improves out of all recognition at the Festival. If you look at the last 2 seasons form in total he’d be favourite in this market and he has the huge advantage that being in the same stable as Sprinter Sacre, he might be ridden to get 2nd.

    Somersby (8/1) ran a fair race in the Victor Chandler but disappointed when stepped up to an extended 2m5f in the Ascot Chase. He rates a doubtful runner at this stage, with the Ryanair the more likely target unless this cuts up completely, and makes no appeal.

    Realt Dubh (20/1) is unlikely to run and Tataniano (33/1) looks a shadow of his former self but Mail De Bievre (10/1) would be interesting if supplemented. He’s an unknown quantity – he was a leading young chaser in France as a 4/5 year old (rated 160). He’d only had 1 run in 3 years before contesting the Denman over 3m at Newbury where he went off very quickly and got tired. Many French races are run crawl-sprint and there are few opportunities at 2m, so it’s perfectly possible he could be a high class 2 miler. Assuming he’ll trailblaze there must be a good possibility he uses too much energy trying to mix it with Sprinter Sacre, so doesn’t look the type for this market.

    Whichever of Sizing Europe, Cue Card and Mail De Bievre run are likely to be up with a hectic pace. It looks the classic sort of race where they’ll get tired and a horse ridden to finish 2nd will come past them close home. At the odds clear preference is for the proven class of defending champion Finian’s Rainbow. You have to forgive him his 2 runs in the mud this year, but if you do he’d be favourite for this as he beat Sizing Europe last year, is a year younger at 10 which is crucial at this stage of their careers, and is more likely to run.

    My initial response to this market being priced by just 2 firms to 136% is that I’d wait for other bookmakers’ prices. But when I actually thought through the race I had Finian’s Rainbow in as 2nd favourite (as he is on the exchanges) at a much shorter price. It’s always a difficult decision in this sort of situation as a couple of other firms could easily price it up with him even bigger – but if Sizing Europe or Cue Card is definitely aimed at the Ryanair, the price will collapse. It’s therefore worth going in now as 11/2 is too big and that’s what matters.

    Comment


    • #32
      Watch the terms some books only paying 2 places each way !

      Comment


      • #33
        Paddys 14s on Cue Card ...must think he is going to Ryanair

        Comment


        • #34
          Tony Keenan lets rip...

          The Champion Chase is a snore and between now and then we'll have to listen to all the racing fans bleating on about what a 'specimen' Sprinter Sacre is and to get along to see him in the parade ring. Boring. I'd rather look at one of the handicaps elsewhere on the card. He's scared off the opposition here despite not having faced an opponent worthy of the name all season and any comparisons to Frankel and/or Moscow Flyer are outlandish at this stage; the former faced talented adversaries in the early part of his career whereas the latter achieved longevity.

          I'm not overly keen on backing one to finish second to him as he's beaten all his rivals comfortably before, though I would back Sizing Europe in the unlikely event that he turns up. Sprinter Sacre is 179 horse while Sizing is 170 and there shouldn't be such a discrepancy in the prices.

          Comment


          • #35
            We have updated our stuff

            Comment


            • #36
              Think Sizing will def go to Ryanair now. Cue Card 50:50.

              Comment


              • #37
                AP

                I will probably ride defending Champion Finian’s Rainbow in the Champion Chase if, as seems likely, he goes for it. Unless, of course, Barry Geraghty chooses him over Sprinter Sacre. You never know!

                Comment


                • #38
                  Wonder if mail de Bevre will still be supplemented ? George doing well this year I'd respect his runners ...

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    AGE Big Zeb 3rd @ 13/2 last year, Moscow Flyer (win ’05) and Tuitchev 3rd ‘04 only horses aged 11 or over in last 17 years has been placed ('09 Newmill 4th). Moscow’s win at 11 first since from that age group since Skymas ’77. In the last 21 years, the winner's roll call reads aged 5 (1) 6 (2), 7(3), 8(7), 9(5), 10(2), 11(1). However apart from Moscow, no winner older than 9 since One Man '98. In the 13 races since One Man, 32 horses older than 9 tried (other than Moscow). Only 4 of those started less than 10/1, all finished placed. Sizing Europe, Big Zeb twice and Fota Island. Sizing Europe, Finians Rainbow, Wishful Thinking

                    Master Minded first five year old to win. Voy, first six year old winner of this in the last 35 years. Then MM won as a six yr old. Only 12 six year olds have actually run in this race since ‘88. Petit Robin 3rd '09, '08 Fair Along 3rd. '05 Well Chief was 2nd to Moscow, '06 Kauto Star fell when 2/1 fav and '07 Voy won. Kauto Stone fell at the 1st last year. Kumbeswhar, Edgardo Sol

                    Seven yr olds. 3 winners and 4 seconds from 19 runners in last 20 renewals none last year. Sanctuaire, Cue Card, Sprinter Sacre

                    BETTING Only one winning favourite in the last 7. Due one. 2011 Sizing Europe 10s followed Big Zeb at 10s after Newmill's 16/1 success in ’06 as rare big price winners in this. Before that Deep Sensation 11/1 ’94 highest priced winner since at least ’83. Mister McGoldrick was 3rd in ’06 at 50/1 and ’07 placed horses Dempsey 20s and River City 33s would negate the previous 13 yrs. Between ’91 and ’04 only three of the 50 that started bigger than 14/1 got placed. This tends to have small fields and we may have had our share of large priced returns for a while. (Largest field ever was 13 in 1999)

                    FORM 26 of last 28 had won that season (exceptions Sizing Europe and Martha’s Son ’97 one outing - Fell). 24 from last 27 had been 1st or 2nd last time (Martha’s, Edredon Bleu 3rd, Voy unseated, Sizing Europe 3rd).

                    Only Klairon Davis in past 20 had failed to win over at least 2 miles 2 furlongs earlier in career. Klairon Davis had fallen early in his two attempts at longer distances. 16 of last 23 had won over 2 and 1/2 miles (Not Master Minded).

                    Since ’95 Klairon Davis, Moscow Flyer (2), Newmill, Big Zeb and Sizing Europe have won for Irish trainers. Reasonable from 38 runners over 18 years. Last year the three Irish finished 2nd, 3rd and 5th. In 2011 the 4 Irish trained horses filled the first 4 places.

                    Tingle Creek/Queen Mother double. In last 19, Viking Flagship ‘95, Flagship Uberalles, ’02, Moscow Flyer ’05, Master Minded '09. All Queen Mother favourites. Last year Sizing Europe pipped on the run in after the nonsense with the last fence. Sprinter Sacre (Tingle Creek Chase has produced at least one subsequent Festival winner in 9 of the last 12 runnings. Didn't last year. 2011-Oiseau de Nuit won Grand Annual. (Sprinter, Sanctuaire)
                    All bar Sizing of the last 18 winners had won more than half of their completed NH starts. He was 10 from 23, he is now 14 from 29 (I admit Newmill had only 9 wins from 20 runs before his triumph but it does make a nice round stat, humour me).

                    Moscow Flyer 2003 and 2005, Royal Relief 1972 and 1974 are the only two to have regained crown (Sizing Europe). Moscow was 11yrs old and the 6/4 fav.

                    Last 15 winners had all won at least a Grade 2 and had no more than 4 outings that season.

                    14 from last 15 all ran at least 7 times over fences (Finians Rainbow with 7 had the least, all the rest had more including Master Minded first time).

                    No mare has ever won this race. No blinkered winner in last 14. Two tried in 2012, neither placed

                    CHELTENHAM FORM Since 1959 there have been 10 dual winners of this, four in the past twenty five years. Before Master Minded the last one was Viking Flagship ‘95. Last 9 before that to try have failed. All those four back to back winners started the second year as short priced favourite. No Grand Annual/Queen Mother double since Kababatic ’91. (2012 Bellvano no longer with us) Badsworth Boy's treble was completed in '85, he was a 10 yr old, had 4 opponents, started at 11/8f and strolled home (that is, after Frank Berry had wrestled Bobsline to the ground 3 out).
                    21 from last 28 won or placed at Festival before. (Finians Rainbow was 2nd in 2011 Arkle). Two of the other seven were course winners. Master Minded (first win) and Newmill had never been there before. Big Zeb fell in this in his only other visit to Cheltenham '09.

                    27 from last 29 either course winners or over 2m2f.

                    10 of last 11 rated at least 160 and had previously won a Grade 1 race. Finians was 164

                    Paul Nicholls - 4 winners and 5 placed from 22 runners since 1999.
                    2012 Queen Mother Form. Its fair enough. Finians Rainbow won a Melling at Aintree. Sizing Europe has won 2 G1s and 32 G2s even if he has been no bigger than 1/3 in his last three outings. Wishful Thinking won the 2013 Game Spirit and the Cl2 2 miler at the Paddypower Cheltenham meeting. Kauto Stone, first time out, won the JNWine Chase at Down Royal a Sandown G2.

                    All since 1978 either placed last time or F or U.

                    Last 12 winners of the Arkle to have lined up for the next years Queen Mother Champion Chase have been placed at least, six won. Sprinter Sacre Captain Chris went to the Ryanair last year.
                    2012 Arkle - Sprinter Sacre has won at Aintree and both the Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler. The rest haven't done too badly after he hacked all over them. Cue Card won the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter first time out. Menorah won a G1 at Aintree and this seasons Peterborough Chase ran at Kempton. Al Ferof won the Paddypower on an unheard of 159. Blackstairsmountain has won 3 small races in Ireland, and Foildubh who finished last here, went o to win a £41k handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival. Pretty solid. The 2012 Arkle time was 3.51 a second faster than that achieved Captain Chris. The latter's time was a second faster than Sizing in 2010 which itself was the best since My Way De Solzen in '07.

                    Queen Mother Times: Finians Rainbow 3.52 Sizing Europe 3.54 Big Zeb 3 51, MM 2 4mins, MM1 3 56, Voy 3 53, Newmill 3 51, Moscow Flyer 3.54, Azer 3.54. Queen Mother runners carry 3lbs more than the novices and it is run on the same course.

                    PLACED HORSES - Going back to Lord Dorcet in 1998 all bar Dempsey and Petit Robin of the 24 placed horses since were already at least Grade 2 chase winners. Dempsey himself came here on the back of a facile Sandown Grade 3 success in February of that year. Petit Robin, Dempsey and Lord Dorcet had previously been placed in a Grade 1. The last 6 placed horses in this were all previous Grade 1 winners.

                    BREEDING. Past 5 winners under 8 yrs of age were all French Bred. Have won 5 from last 12. Sprinter Sacre is German Bred

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Is sprinter Sacre German bred ? Thought he came from France ?

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Originally posted by Hoof View Post
                        Is sprinter Sacre German bred ? Thought he came from France ?
                        Sire is Network who is a German bred ...His mammy was French though.

                        SPRINTER SACRE (FR) dkb/br. G, 2006 DP = 0-0-0-4-2 (6) DI = 0.00 * CD = -1.33 - 13 Starts, 11 Wins, 1 Places, 1 Shows Career Earnings: £302,735

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Why does it say FR after hios name if he aint French ?

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Corals are going evens about sprinter tomorrow...get an account here.

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Originally posted by Old Vic View Post
                              Corals are going evens about sprinter tomorrow...get an account here.
                              Nice one. Was just going to watch it without a bet but the whole family can enjoy it now ..all signed up with Coral

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Tom George

                                Mail De Bievre has been supplemented for the Champion Chase...The drop back in trip should be to his advantage making use of his long stride and jumping.......He has delighted us with his work since his reappearance at Newbury last month.

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X