2013 Champion Chase

[Yeehaa]

Pricewise tomorrow. Sanctuaire shortening up ...likely to run at least so decent ew option.

[Sefton]

William's Wishes 1pt ew at 25s PW

[Sizing]

Get the impression Sizing is going to end up in this. Bit of a campaign in Ireland from some of pundits to get Flemenstar in it too.

This sort of thing

If anyone needed reminding of the premium that will be on stamina come Cheltenham Gold Cup day, the gruelling climax to Saturday's Argento Chase ought to have done the trick.

Imperial Commander nearly brought the house down on his first start for 680 days, but Denis O'Regan conjured a timely late surge out of Cape Tribulation to foil the romantic comeback victory for the 2010 Gold Cup hero.

When it came down to it, that lack of a run did for Imperial Commander, and the ground will hardly be as testing at Prestbury Park in March.

Still, the point to note is that there will be no hiding place in the showpiece event – there never is. Apart from Saturday's two chief protagonists, Bobs Worth, Long Run, Tidal Bay, Sir Des Champs and First Lieutenant are all hardwired for such a dour examination.

The more you think about it, the more you have to conclude that Flemenstar isn't.

This correspondent was as keen as the next man to see Peter Casey's stable star keep the Gold Cup dream alive in the Lexus Chase at Christmas. In the final analysis, though, he had the whole field stone-cold at the last fence, yet was passed by two horses before the line came and would have been passed by a third in another half a stride.

In mitigation, his defenders point to his having been too keen under Andrew Lynch early on, but he pulled little enough to be able to cruise to the front around the last bend.

The Hennessy Gold Cup back at Leopardstown on February 9 was promptly nominated as his next target. In one sense, you have to admire his connections' willingness to persevere on the trail that has the elusive Holy Grail as its final reward.

However, the theory that he will be better suited by being allowed to bowl along in front in the Hennessy doesn't stack up; he will simply be a sitting duck to stayers like Tidal Bay and Sir Des Champs at the Foxrock venue.

And, even if things fall his way there, the extra two and a half furlongs up the hill at Cheltenham will thwart him in the end. Flemenstar's bold jumping and high cruising speed are his most potent attributes, so he should be placed to best effect with that in mind.

The race for him is the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Sprinter Sacre is a fine specimen, but he has yet to meet anything this term that could eyeball him in the latter part of a race.

He hasn't beaten a horse that could be remotely described as Grade One material since the Arkle Trophy, yet there was a bunch of them still close enough to him at the second-last in the Victor Chandler Chase on Saturday. Flemenstar wouldn't be swatted away so easily.

Sprinter Sacre is long odds-on for the Champion, but Saturday's Arkle at Leopardstown provided a timely lesson.

The supposedly bombproof Arvika Ligeonniere, which fenced to his right when winning there over Christmas, wasn't given nearly as much leeway this time.

It's impossible to say conclusively whether he was unnerved into falling down the back straight, but the fact that Oscars Well was on his tail this time won't have been helping Paul Townend's cause any.

Either way, it was a reminder of what can happen when a little pressure is applied, or simply that anything can happen in a jumps race.

The latter conclusion is more benign, but Arvika Ligeonniere would less likely have fallen on Saturday if he got the complete freebie that he did on St Stephen's Day.

Only Flemenstar and Sizing Europe have the class to put it up to Sprinter Sacre, although, at 11 years of age, Sizing Europe's best days are admittedly behind him. Still, he sets a fair benchmark, and Flemenstar might be better served by tackling him in the Tied Cottage Chase over two miles at Punchestown next Sunday than prolonging the inevitable in the Hennessy.

[racecaller13]

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 1-0-1
6yo: 2-3-10
7yo: 1-1-8
8yo: 1-2-25
9yo: 4-4-25
10yo: 0-8-17
11yo+: 1-2-11
Horses aged 5 to 7 have a combined record of 4-4-19. (all 4 winners were French bred)
Horses aged 8+ have a combined record of 6-16-78. (all 6 winners were Irish-bred)
Moscow Flyer has been the only winner in the last 10 runnings to be aged over 9 (and the only winner aged over 10 in last 30 years)

Breeding
Irish bred: 6-10-43
French bred: 4-5-30
German bred: 0-3-7
British bred: 0-2-15
American bred: 0-0-1
NZ bred: 0-0-1
French & Irish bred horses have won the last 10, though they did represent just over 75% of the total runners.
Most Irish bred runners don’t run in this until they are at least 8 but the continental chasers seem to peak much younger:
French & German bred horses aged 5 to 7: 4-4-15
French & German bred horses aged 8 or older: 0-4-22

Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners won a graded chase on their last completed start (2 exception finished 2nd & 3rd in graded chases)
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 163+ on last completed chase start
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners had run in 7 to 13 chases (exception was Moscow Flyer when winning it for a second time)
9 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (exception was Moscow Flyer when winning it for a second time)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 1½F+
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 (exceptions was 2nd in only previous grade 1)
6 of 10 winners were course winners (2 exceptions hadn’t run at the track before, 1 fell on only previous course start & other was 2nd in previous season's Arkle)

Previous Cheltenham Festival Form
Defending Champion Chaser (Finian's Rainbow): 5U35421422 (1-4-10)
Previous season's Arkle winner (Sprinter Sacre): 112121 (4-2-6)
Highest placed Arkle Finisher to run in this: 112U136211 (5-3-10)
5 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Arkle, finishing 11112
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous Champion chase, finishing F1F
Master Minded in 2008 (who was having his first season racing in Great Britain) and Newmill in 2006 (who benefitted from Kauto Star’s fall) were the only two winners not to have run in the Arkle or Champion Chase at the previous Festival.

Other races
Tied Cottage Chase winner: 114142 (3-1-6)
Tingle Creek winner (Sprinter Sacre): 3U161P82 (2-2-8)
Fortria Chase winner (Flemenstar): U14123 (2-2-6)
Desert Orchid Chase winner (Sanctuaire): 121 (2-1-3)
Game Spirit Chase winner: 713146 (2-1-6)
Maghulls Novice Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 2631 (1-2-4)
Punchestown Champion Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 214PF443 (1-2-8)
Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet winner (Sizing Europe): 1U6PF623 (1-2-8)
Previous season's Melling Chase winner (Finian's Rainbow): 215 (1-1-3)
Victor Chandler Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 271P8 (1-1-5)
32Red H'cap Chase winner (William's Wishes): 4B19 (1-0-4)
Celebration Chase winner (Sanctuaire): 3P3P7 (0-2-5)
John Durkan Memorial Chase winner (Flemenstar): 2 (0-1-1)
Gowran Park Champion Chase winner (Sizing Europe): 2 (0-1-1)
Previous season's Halloween Trophy winner (Cue Card): F3 (0-1-2)
Red Rum Handicap Chase winner (Edgardo Sol): 25 (0-1-2)
Haldon Gold Cup winner (Cue Card): 637 (0-1-3)
Jenny Mould Handicap Chase winner (Shooters Wood): 70 (0-0-2)
Powers Gold Cup winner (Flemenstar): 55 (0-0-2)
Schloer Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 74 (0-0-2)
Normans Grove Chase winner: 64 (0-0-2)
Previous season's Irish Arkle winner (Flemenstar): 465 (0-0-3)
Hilly Way Chase winner (Days Hotel): 564 (0-0-4)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Tingle Creek, finishing U21214
2 of 10 winners ran in the Melling chase, finishing 12
4 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Tied Cottage Chase last time, finishing 1113
3 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in previous season's Racing Post Novice Chase, finishing 151
2 of 5 Irish-trained winners ran in Punchestown Champion Chase, finishing 13
3 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the Game Spirit Chase last time, finishing 1U1
3 of 5 British-trained winners ran in the Victor Chandler Chase, finishing 212

Trainers
Unsurprisingly Paul Nicholls (3-2-18) has won 3 of the last 10 runnings, including 2 of the last 5 with Master Minded.
Henry De Bromhead (1-1-2) has saddled Sizing Europe to finish 1st & 2nd in past 2 years.
Alan King (1-1-3) and Nicky Henderson (1-1-5) have each saddled the winner and a placed finisher in past 6 years.
Philip Hobbs (0-2-4) has seen 2 of his 4 representatives make the frame.
Irish trained runners (5-7-29) have done really well in this lately, winning 5 of the last 10 from less than 30% of the total runners. The first 2 home in 2010, the first 4 home in 2011 and the 2nd & 3rd last year were all trained in Ireland.

Price
7 of 10 winners were priced 5/1 or below
The 3 winners priced higher than 5/1 were all trained in Ireland.
Favourites (3-2-10) have taken 3 of the last 10 and show a level stakes loss of 3.39.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

· French bred aged 5 to 7 or Irish bred aged 8 or 9
· Won a graded chase on last completed outing
· Posted an RPR of 163+
· Run 2 to 4 times this season
· Run 7 to 13 times over fences (or previous Champion Chase winner)
· 2nd or 3rd season chaser (or previous Champion Chase winner)
· Won over at least 2M 1½F
· Won a grade 1
· Course winner (or having first course run)
· Won the Arkle or ran in Champion Chase at 2012 Festival
· Finished in the first 4 in the Tingle Creek
· Ran in Game Spirit, Victor Chandler or Tied Cottage last time
· Trained by Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson or in Ireland

[Sprinter]

Flemenstar team seem very divided ...

[mayo]

Mail de Bevre to be supplemented

"He is obviously a very exciting horse," said George. "He did run with the choke out but Paddy [Brennan] said he couldn't go any steadier on him, that's the way the horse has always run so two and a half miles would have been far enough. He has an unbelievably high cruising speed, his jumping is excellent and he probably got tired going to the second last.
"In hindsight we probably should have run him in the Game Spirit over two miles, but it's hard to know because he was running over two miles six in France. He is going to improve for the run - it was his first run in a chase for three years. He is going to come on a lot for the run but it's a question of which distance we run him over.

"He is quick enough to run over two miles and there won't be many two-mile horses that could go with him. He's not in the Champion Chase but we are thinking about it because there aren't many that can do his kind of thing. Something has to run against Sprinter Sacre and I can't see many others who are like Mail De Bievre.

"Paddy said he was only in second gear. To ride he didn't feel he was going very quick at all, which makes us think he can go a great deal quicker if he wanted to over two miles."

[ABU]

A whole bunch of trainers who dont know what race they should be running their horse in

I am starting to get a bit tired of the Flemenstar hype wagon now. As someone wittier than me said the only ones that should be routine tested this week are the owner and the trainer

[Valerie]

A whole bunch of trainers who dont know what race they should be running their horse in

I am starting to get a bit tired of the Flemenstar hype wagon now. As someone wittier than me said the only ones that should be routine tested this week are the owner and the trainer

Too harsh ABU

Would have liked to have seen the race.

[Morning Glory]

It is a shame Flemenstar wont make it.

The Melling should suit him well and might meet Sprinter Sacre in it. Something to look forward to after the Festival.

I dont get the Mail De Bevre thing he was getting weight at Newbury and will probably bounce anyway...

[Yeehaa]

Just nine horses have been left in the Sportingbet Queen Mother Champion Chase at the latest forfeit stage.

Following the news that Flemenstar will miss the Cheltenham Festival earlier this week the mighty Sprinter Sacre looks to have scared off plenty of potential opposition ahead of the two-mile chase highlight.

His stablemate, and last year's champion, Finian's Rainbow, could be one of his main rivals and he has been left in the contest ahead of his upcoming run in the Betfair Ascot Chase on Saturday.

Another former champion, Sizing Europe, also has the Champion Chase as an option as does Cue Card, last year's Arkle Trophy runner-up behind Sprinter Sacre.

Finian's Rainbow, Sizing Europe and Cue Card also remain in the Ryanair Chase, though, as do three other Champion Chase entrants; Somersby, Tataniano and Wishfull Thinking.

Paul Nicholls' Sanctuaire, readily beaten by Sprinter Sacre either side of his win in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton, also stands his ground, while Noel Meade's Realt Dubh completes the nine entries.

Eight horses were formally scratched on Wednesday: Edgardo Sol, Flemenstar, Free World, Kumbeshwar, Rubi Light, Shooters Wood, Simonsig and William's Wishes.

The race has never in its history attracted a smaller final field than five, while Flyingbolt was the shortest-priced favourite when scoring at 1/5 in 1966.

[Sprinter]

How many will we end up with ...6 ?

[mayo]

How many will we end up with ...6 ?

Sprinter
Sanctuaire
Finians ?
Wishful Thinking
Somersby
Mail de Bevre

[Sizing]

Sprinter
Sanctuaire
Finians ?
Wishful Thinking
Somersby
Mail de Bevre

Think Sizing will end up here. Ryanair best chance of winning but would be second again here on current form.

[Sprinter]

reading cue card owner wants to go for this and trainer to Ryanair ...the sooner we get NRNB the better

[Old Vic]

Looks like Mail de Bevre will be added

"We don't have to do anything until a week before the race so we'll see how the horse is and everything else, but the plan is to supplement him for the Queen Mother," said George.

"He came out of the Newbury race really well and I think he has come on a lot for the run.

"He looks fantastic and very sharp and we look forward to Cheltenham with him.

"We're not under any pretence and we know it's going to be an uphill struggle, but our horse does have an unbelievably high cruising speed and a good jump in him.

"I think riding him positively over two miles will be just his cup of tea."