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2015 Grand National

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  • #16
    I'm not getting sucked into this McCoy banwagon of winning the national at his final attempt.The bookies will spin this one out and say itll be the biggest payout ever if he wins it but c'mon hes won it once in 20 years.How much are these bookies gonna make with all the mug punters betting McCoy.I challenge any bookie firm to come clean with the figures after the National when McCoy fails to win it.Let face it thats the most realistic outcome!!

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    • #17
      Originally posted by iainmcf View Post
      I'm not getting sucked into this McCoy banwagon of winning the national at his final attempt.The bookies will spin this one out and say itll be the biggest payout ever if he wins it but c'mon hes won it once in 20 years.How much are these bookies gonna make with all the mug punters betting McCoy.I challenge any bookie firm to come clean with the figures after the National when McCoy fails to win it.Let face it thats the most realistic outcome!!
      I get it but Phil Smith may have given him a chance ?

      I will be looking for something under 11 stone and probably in the 50-60 to get in bracket.

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      • #18
        Jason

        I was also delighted with a horse called Kruzhlinin that also ran at the Scottish track. He ran a good race to finish second, but just tired after the last. In all honesty, I wasn’t expecting him to run that well. Like Cloudy Bay and Grand National winner Ballabriggs, Kruzhlinin is set to run at Kelso next before going to Aintree for the National. I’d say he’s our best hope for another Grand National victory. He’s got a very similar profile to Ballabriggs and I’m hoping he could be in the same league as him. Time will tell, though.

        See more at: http://www.lovetheraces.com/features...abriggs/#.dpuf

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        • #19
          Timeform weight-adjusted ratings for the Grand National:

          180 The Druids Nephew

          177+ Many Clouds

          176 Shotgun Paddy, Spring Heeled

          176? Double Ross

          175p Shutthefrontdoor

          175+ Back In Focus

          175 Burton Port, Broadway Buffalo, Cause of Causes, Godsmejudge, Monbeg Dude, Theatrical Star

          175? Ballycasey, Mountainous, Super Duty

          174 Chance du Roy, Renard, Rocky Creek, Vintage Star



          Selected others:

          173 Balthazar King, Carlingford Lough

          172 Lord Windermere, Merry King, Pineau de Re, Sam Winner, Teaforthree, Unioniste

          171 Alvarado, Oscar Time

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          • #20
            Raj Xpress still not qualified.

            Rocky Creek straight to Aintree. Wind Op looks to have done the business.

            Comment


            • #21
              The Crabbie's Grand National moves closer with 87 still on target for Aintree on April 11.

              Wednesday, March 4, 2015 - All the main protagonists remain engaged in the Crabbie's Grand National as 87 horses go forward for the £1-million spectacular at Aintree on Saturday, April 11.

              Shutthefrontdoor (Jonjo O'Neill) heads the betting market as the 8/1 clear favourite with Betfred, official betting partner of the Crabbie's Grand National Festival (Thursday, April 9 to Saturday, April 11). The eight-year-old, who is owned by J P McManus, landed the Irish Grand National in 2014 and looks likely to be the final Crabbie's Grand National ride for record-breaking 19-time champion jockey A P (Tony) McCoy.

              His trainer Jonjo O'Neill, successful in the Aintree race over 30 fences with the McCoy-ridden Don't Push It for McManus in 2010, could also be represented by Merry King (25/1), who was fourth in last season's Scottish Grand National, and third to Many Clouds (Oliver Sherwood, 33/1) in the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury in November.

              Rocky Creek (Paul Nicholls) is 12/1 second favourite with Betfred following his decisive victory in the BetBright Handicap Chase at Kempton Park on February 21. The current champion trainer, who saddled Neptune Collonges to success in 2012, also has Unioniste (20/1), Sam Winner (25/1), Rolling Aces (40/1), Mon Parrain (40/1) and Benvolio (40/1) going forward.

              Since the Scottish Grand National was transferred to Ayr in 1966, three horses have won at both Ayr and Aintree. Red Rum famously captured both contests in the same year (1974) while Little Polveir scored at Ayr in 1987 and at Aintree two years later. The last horse to win both races was Earth Summit, who landed the Scottish Grand National in 1994, four years prior to winning at Aintree.

              Al Co (Peter Bowen, 33/1) was successful in the Ayr contest last season, scoring by a length and a half from Godsmejudge (Alan King, 25/1). The 10-year-old disappointed on his first two outings this season, finishing down the field in a handicap hurdle at Haydock in November and pulling up at Aintree in the Betfred Becher Chase over the Grand National fences at Aintree in December. Last time out on February 28, he hinted at a return to form when staying on to take third in a handicap hurdle over an extended three miles at Doncaster.

              Bowen, who trains at Haverfordwest in Pembrokeshire, reported today: "It is definitely the plan to go for the Crabbie's Grand National with Al Co.

              "I was delighted with his run at Doncaster on Saturday, especially as he still wasn't really quite ready. We may look at giving him one more run before Aintree, which will most likely be over hurdles at Bangor in around a fortnight which will be three weeks before the National.

              "He has won a Scottish National so we know he stays four miles and stamina should not be an issue. The ground was too soft for him earlier in the year and we ran him in the Becher just to give him a spin over the fences

              "The horse is in good form and I am just hoping for good ground at Aintree next month."

              Bowen went close to landing the Crabbie's Grand National when Mckelvey was the three-quarter length runner-up to Silver Birch in 2008 and if successful, Al Co would be only the second Crabbie's Grand National winner to be trained in Wales following Kirkland in 1905.

              Last year's Crabbie's Grand National Pineau De Re (Dr Richard Newland, 25/1) remains engaged and, if successful, would be the first horse to win back-to-back renewals of the world's greatest chase since Red Rum in 1973/1974. The 2014 runner-up Balthazar King (Philip Hobbs, 20/1) is also on target along with fourth-placed Alvarado (Fergal O'Brien), fifth Rocky Creek, sixth home Chance Du Roy (Philip Hobbs, 40/1) and the seventh Monbeg Dude (Michael Scudamore, 33/1).

              The weights for the Crabbie's Grand National are still headed jointly on 11st 10lb by last month's Irish Hennessy Gold Cup victor Carlingford Lough (John Kiely IRE, 33/1) and the 2014 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Lord Windermere (Jim Culloty, IRE). Both horses are due to run in the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup on Friday, March 13. Jim Culloty, who rode the 2002 Grand National winner Bindaree, has also left in last year's Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase winner Spring Heeled (20/1).

              Other leading contenders for the 2015 Crabbie's Grand National include Soll (David Pipe, 25/1), who put himself in the Crabbie's Grand National picture when successful in veterans' handicap chases at Exeter and Newbury in February, plus Teaforthree (Rebecca Curtis, 25/1), who was third in the 2013 Aintree feature.

              The next scratchings deadline for the Crabbie's Grand National is on Tuesday, March 24 and they will be released on that day. A maximum field of 40 can line up on at 4.15pm on Saturday, April 11.

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              • #22
                Carlingford Lough still entered, will McCoy stick to Shutthefrontdoor if CL wins the Gold cup then goes to Aintree

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                • #23
                  The one i like the look of at this stage is Al Co at 40/1 ran a few good races over last couple of seasons in big field type races.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Liam301287 View Post
                    The one i like the look of at this stage is Al Co at 40/1 ran a few good races over last couple of seasons in big field type races.
                    Bowen has a great record at the meeting. Not sure how many he has had in the race before.

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                    • #25
                      Wonder if all those were in prep for the national in mind? Be interesting to see if his still in this after next qualifying period has passed for this race.

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                      • #26
                        My shortlist for the big'un:

                        Rocky Creek: Obvious contender after his comfortable success in the BetBright chase which puts him 9lbs well-in here, as mentioned earlier the wind op clearly seems to have unleashed some more of his ability. Has been targeted for the national since his run last year. Good jumper with form over the fences whose likely to have STD on board. Has been given a manageable weight of 11st 3lbs initially and goes on most ground so is a short price but very solid candidate. However, I would leave backing him until who's going to be top weight is confirmed as he may end up lugging quite a weight if those expected at the top of the weights drop out.

                        Balthazar King: If ever there was a horse built for mammoth distances and peculiar fences its him. Normally very sound jumper who ran a cracker last year when I though I'd picked the winner only to finish second. Bypassed the festival cross country race this year to be kept fresh for this. Races prominently so avoids a large proportion trouble in running but up 3lbs from last year and wants the ground as quick as possible he will need a career best to win.

                        Godsmejudge: Fancied for this race last year before being withdrawn due to injury. Has had a quiet season this year being pulled up on his first start and a remote 5th in the BetBright Chase won by Rocky Creek. However, it appears nowadays he needs an extreme stamina test on better ground to be seen at his best with form figures at 4m+ 312. Given a nice initial weight of 10st 8lbs there is no obvious reason why he won't take to the national fences and I think he's a big player if Alan King has him ready.

                        Alvarado: Had him last year when a very good 4th in this race if unspectacular in running, he is a safe jumper who kept on from 9th place before the last to be 4th at the line. The handicapper has been lenient on him by only raising him a pound from last year. Has run once so far this season in a veterans chase at Doncaster where he was readily outpaced over 3m showing he is all about stamina. Would need to be more prominent towards the end of the race if he is to improve and get on the podium but could be outpaced at the business end before staying on again. As such he is vulnerable for win purposes but a very good e/w shout as he will no doubt be picking off tired horses from the 2nd last on the run to the line again.

                        Night in Milan: Possibly my favourite pick for the race this year at the odds available. He isn't the classiest, the fastest, the best treated or the most fashionable but is perhaps one of the most genuine and consistent horses I've seen. I fancied him for the race last year hoping he'd get in on a feather weight but it wasn't to be. This year he has achieved a guaranteed place with a mark of 146 having placed in all 3 of his contests. A lover of good ground and lovely jumper, he's run well at Aintree before albeit not over national fences. Still has to prove he gets this sort of trip but nothing so far to suggest he won't as he's normally lugging around 11st 10lbs+ over an extended 3m and I feel this race could be made for him.

                        Theatrical Star: My outsider for this years race. Up against it to get in off a mark of 139, but if he does scrape into the race underestimate him at your peril. Has on the whole run really well this year culminating in two very good seconds, latterly to Hawkes Point in the Betfred Classic Chase giving weight and the progressive La Reve in the Betfred Masters Chase at Sandown. Thoroughly unexposed over extreme distances this 9yo could make a mockery of the 10st 2lbs initially awarded if he gets in. An adequate enough jumper he appears to be fine on all ground and I fully expect him to be much shorter than his current 66/1 NRNB if he gets a run!

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                        • #27
                          Good write up Lessey. I would be really pleased if Balthazar King could break Richard Johnsons duck in the race. It would be a nice alternative story to an AP win.

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                          • #28
                            Chance Du Roy seems good e/w value at 40/1 nrnb bog with Bet365.
                            Held up in rear last year to be hampered twice and still finished 6th. In very good form atm and in with a good weight. He carries 10-4, 11 yrs old, OR141 and has experience over Aintree, so should give a good run for your money.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by loveracing View Post
                              Chance Du Roy seems good e/w value at 40/1 nrnb bog with Bet365.
                              Held up in rear last year to be hampered twice and still finished 6th. In very good form atm and in with a good weight. He carries 10-4, 11 yrs old, OR141 and has experience over Aintree, so should give a good run for your money.


                              Like the age and weight profile.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Balthazar King and Dickie Johnson are such fan favourites it would be great to see them win this, I don't think anyone would begrudge them.

                                Agree LR, Chance Du Roy is another good e/w shot who will complete and probably snare a place but don't think he's strong enough at the finish to win but at 40/1 you're gonna get 10/1 for a place with him which is good going!

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