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2015 Grand National

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  • Originally posted by MrMcGoldrick View Post
    I think apart from the winner, which was a fantastic performance, there were only 3 other horses carrying over 11 st that even finished, had the going been soft I wouldn't think even that many would have done so, Many Clouds would also have struggled I would think with his weight. It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does next year, he's unlikely to relent very much even if Many Clouds has a poor run up to the race so he could be giving lots of weight to some good improvers, maybe on soft ground too, so what is already a very tricky race may get trickier.
    I'm like you though mayo, I have an awful record in this race, plus there are at least 20 races at the Cheltenham festival that I prefer to watch, there are about 10 that I prefer to watch at this Aintree festival for that matter.
    I'm sure I read that the handicapper rated the performance at 170 making it the best GN performance in 25 years (I didn't see who the last 170+ perfomance) which is probably fair.

    I think the interesting stat would be to see how many of those carrying over 11st (over a few recent Nationals) fell/unseated compared to pulled up. If the majority of those horses were pulled up then without doubt carrying weight stops horses in extreme tests of stamina, if the majority fall/unseat then it's a little less clear IMO.
    Interestingly Saturdays renewal saw just one 11st+ horse pulled up (Lord Windermere), two fell (Baltazar King and Unioniste) with four horses completing (Many Clouds, Shutthefrontdoor, First Leiutenant and Rocky Creek).


    We know the fences are much easier, the problem with making fences easier is that horses approach them at a quicker pace, are they taking more chances or is it the lack of respect for the obstacles that's leading to mistakes ?
    Alo Co, Unioniste and Rubi Light had never fallen in their careers combining 90 odd races before Saturday and all 3 came down, does this mean anything ?

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Yeehaa View Post
      Its funny how your view of the National can change when you finally back a winner.

      I actually found Gok alright but thought Frankie added fook all.
      Congratulations on finding the winner.
      As for Gok, I hate the fact the BBC and now C4 place such a high focus on fashion, I can even remember BBC spending so much time talking to WAGS about their hat and shoe collection they missed the start of a Royal Ascot race.

      Racing is for racing fans, no place for Gok or any other excessively feminine wardrobe obsessed bloke IMO....

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
        I'm sure I read that the handicapper rated the performance at 170 making it the best GN performance in 25 years (I didn't see who the last 170+ perfomance) which is probably fair.

        I think the interesting stat would be to see how many of those carrying over 11st (over a few recent Nationals) fell/unseated compared to pulled up. If the majority of those horses were pulled up then without doubt carrying weight stops horses in extreme tests of stamina, if the majority fall/unseat then it's a little less clear IMO.
        Interestingly Saturdays renewal saw just one 11st+ horse pulled up (Lord Windermere), two fell (Baltazar King and Unioniste) with four horses completing (Many Clouds, Shutthefrontdoor, First Leiutenant and Rocky Creek).


        We know the fences are much easier, the problem with making fences easier is that horses approach them at a quicker pace, are they taking more chances or is it the lack of respect for the obstacles that's leading to mistakes ?
        Alo Co, Unioniste and Rubi Light had never fallen in their careers combining 90 odd races before Saturday and all 3 came down, does this mean anything ?
        That's a fascinating observation on al co Unioniste and rubi. I think sometimes they over jump but still hard to explain. The Druids Nephew fall was fairly odd too. He jumped ok maybe too well but just crumbled on landing.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Old Vic View Post
          That's a fascinating observation on al co Unioniste and rubi. I think sometimes they over jump but still hard to explain. The Druids Nephew fall was fairly odd too. He jumped ok maybe too well but just crumbled on landing.
          OV - I'm convinced it's not the fences that are catching them out, the base of the fences is about 2 foot tall these days with the rest just spruce, similar to what they do with the Cheltenham cross country obstacles on the racecourse proper.
          I'm just trying to look at any/all angles to make some sense of things.

          TDN fall was indeed an interesting one, again, maybe they're jumping the obstacles quicker and that's what's unbalancing horses ?

          Comment


          • There was no horse fell for a complete circuit which you would imagine is unprecedented.

            There was an older jockey stat from last year First 7 over 35 - think it might have held up well this year too.

            Found it 2014


            Quote Originally Posted by Ron View Post
            I think most of us were rubbish this year Shrews. My worst GN ever. Keith Melrose of Timeform had the winner but I ignored it. If interested the article is still on the Timeform site here. At least all the horses went home safely, which is always good news.
            Same as that Ron...maybe we should just back the senior jockeys.

            1st 29 Pineau De Re (FR) Dr R D P Newland 11 10-6 L P Aspell 25/1
            Mid-division, blundered 13th, in touch 12th, mistake 17th, went 2nd 3 out, soon challenged, led next, ridden clear approaching elbow, stayed on well

            Leighton = 37

            2nd 5 9 Balthazar King (IRE) P J Hobbs 10 10-13 R Johnson 14/1
            Hampered 1st, soon in touch, hampered 9th (valentines), driven 3 out, chased winner last, ridden and hard pressed for 2nd approaching elbow, kept on, no impression opened 16/1

            Dickie = 36

            3rd 1¼ 14 Double Seven (IRE) M Brassil 8 10-11 pt A P McCoy 10/1j
            In touch, blundered 5th, mistake 10th, switched towards outside 17th, ridden to chase leaders after 3 out, stayed on to press for 2nd approaching elbow, no impression with winner £4900-£350 £4800-£400

            AP = 39

            4th 10 37 Alvarado (IRE) F M O'Brien 9 10-2 Paul Moloney 33/1
            Held up behind, headway into mid-division 18th, driven after 3 out, 9th approaching last, ridden and stayed on under pressure flat, went 4th towards finish, never reached leaders

            Paul = 35


            5th 2½ 5 Rocky Creek (IRE) P F Nicholls 8 11-5 N Fehily 16/1
            Tracked leaders, led 18th to 24th (2nd canal turn), with leader, led again 3 out, headed next, ridden and no impression in 4th after last, one pace flat, lost 4th towards finish

            Noel = 39 ?


            6th s.h 26 Chance du Roy (FR) P J Hobbs 10 10-6 p T J O'Brien 33/1
            Towards rear, hampered 9th (valentines), headway into mid-division 23rd (2nd foinavon), chased leaders 26th, one pace in 5th last, no impression

            ( only a kid born 1986


            7th 3 19 Monbeg Dude (IRE) M Scudamore 9 10-9 P Carberry 16/1


            Paul = 40
            Last edited by mayo; 13 April 2015, 08:50 PM.

            Comment


            • This year jockeys fairly senior again

              Pos Dist Horse Trainer Age Weight Jockey SP
              1st 2 Many Clouds (IRE) O Sherwood 8 11-9 L P Aspell 25/1 age 38
              2nd 1¾ 24 Saint Are (FR) T R George 9 10-6 pt P J Brennan 25/1 age 34
              3rd 6 21 Monbeg Dude (IRE) M Scudamore 10 10-7 L Treadwell 40/1 age 28
              4th 3½ 37 Alvarado (IRE) F O'Brien 10 10-3 Paul Moloney 20/1 age 36
              5th 1½ 7 Shutthefrontdoor (IRE) Jonjo O'Neill 8 11-2 pt A P McCoy 6/1f age 40

              Comment


              • I think part of the reason horses fall that haven't before is that they have never been asked to race over this distance before nor have they jumped fences with the challenge presented by the national ones. As to the weight carried I mentioned the other day that horses carrying higher weights in handicaps can't automatically be dismissed when the ground is riding good, this is purely because they are handicapped as the best horse, or in MC's case second best, but LW has proved this season that last season was a fluke achieved against lesser lights, whereas MC winning the Hennessey was in itself a top class performance, to do it again ove an extra 1m 2f was a supreme effort and must rate up there with the best national winners. I would still say it could have been a completely different story on soft ground, that's when the weight saps the stamina as they try to come up out of the mud.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by MrMcGoldrick View Post
                  I think part of the reason horses fall that haven't before is that they have never been asked to race over this distance before nor have they jumped fences with the challenge presented by the national ones.
                  Mr M - do you consider these fences to carry extreme challenge ?
                  It's only an opinion of course but I think they've modified them to such a degree they can be taken at greater speed and it's the pace of the race that creates mistakes.
                  I think the race is getting quicker, haven't checked times and of course the ground and changes to the race distance don't help with comparison but it definitely seems to me there's a far greater focus on stamina now because the pace of teh race is quicker.

                  Comment


                  • This years race was second fastest ever but think they lost a half furlong at some stage.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by mayo View Post
                      This years race was second fastest ever
                      Thanks Mayo, didn't know that but it doesn't surprise me, albeit slightly reduced in distance these days....

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