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Thread: Epsom Oaks 2013

  1. #1
    Derby
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    Epsom Oaks 2013

    Odds

    Secret Gesture (5/2), Moth (3), Liber Nauticus (7/2), Banoffee (8), Say (12), Talent (16), Madame Defarge (25), The Lark (33), Gertrude Versed (40), Roz (50), Miss You Too (100)

  2. #2
    Donn keen on Moth

    Moth herself ran a cracker to finish third in the 1000 Guineas on her only subsequent start. Held up out the back in the early stages, she was slightly hampered at a crucial stage around the two-furlong pole just when she needed all her momentum to bring her forward. She may not have won without that incident, but she would have finished closer to Sky Lantern and Just The Judge than she did, and Just The Judge obviously upheld the Newmarket form by going and winning the Irish 1000 Guineas at The Curragh on Sunday.

    Moth may have become a little unbalanced in The Dip at Newmarket, but that may have been because she was trying to negotiate her way through traffic at the time. Given her pace, she should be able to travel well down around Tattenham Corner, and that should give her every chance of negotiating the contours.

    She should stay the trip, she goes on easy ground and fast ground, so the weather is not really a concern, and Joseph O'Brien has unsurprisingly chosen to ride her in front of Say and in the absence of Snow Queen. She has a big chance.

  3. #3
    Senior Member Statto's Avatar
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    Trends

    11/11 - Raced within the last month
    11/11 - Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced
    9/11 - Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
    9/11 - Won from stall 5 or higher
    8/11 - Won over at least 1m2f previously
    7/11 - Placed favourites
    6/11 - Won their last race
    4/11 - Favourites (1 joint)
    3/11 - Returned a double-figure price in the betting
    2/11 - Won by jockey Kieren Fallon
    2/11 - Raced in the English 1,000 Guineas
    2/11 - Irish-trained winners
    0/11 - Had raced at the course previously
    0/11 - Had run over 1m4f previously
    5 of the last 6 favourites were unplaced
    The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 6 of the last 9 runnings

  4. #4
    Senior Member Statto's Avatar
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    Alternative dosage numbers ...

    DI of about 1.24
    CoD about 0.21
    Last edited by Statto; 05-30-2013 at 08:28 PM.

  5. #5
    Senior Member
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    9/11 - Won from stall 5 or higher

    That's the top two ruled out ...Roz at 40s anyone ?

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