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It's been pointed out to me, that as of this season, novice hurdlers and chasers that hadn't won by February 1st remain novices until December 1st. The news had passed me by somehow, but it's certainly significant based on the impact it could have on new novices making their debut's. Someone else may have picked it up and highlighted it on a thread on here, but I can't find anything? I've only been posting for a couple of months, so apologies if I'm duplicating. If not, I hope it's useful.
It potentially makes for an interesting list of horses that might be able to exploit the early season novice races that have any decent value attached. The big UK stables will certainly want to exploit it. And from a betting angle, we're talking about more experienced horses who will go into the good earlier novice races with an experience and jumping advantage. There are surely horses that were going to be targeted at Aintree rather than Cheltenham that could be really good pick-ups if we can find them.
It might be worth compiling a list here, particularly with a view to the Open meeting in November at Cheltenham. Also for fellow stats lovers it may well change a few trends you'd think. Not just for the Open Meeting, but also possibly the Festival itself, so it's something to be mindful of.
There are also plenty more graded novice races to look out for outside of Cheltenham, particularly at Chepstow, Newbury, Kempton, Ascot, Aintree, Sandown, etc, that will be targeted. So it's definitely an angle to be on top of and be ahead of the game, that has the potential to give a betting/value advantage before punters/bookies latch on.
Those that have been pointed out to me so far are the Ditcheat horses, and Nicholls is sure to go out of his way to exploit the new rules. But Nicky Hendserson, Dan Skelton, Olly Murphy, Fergal O'Brien, Twister, Hobbs, et al will all be looking at how to take advantage. There's a potential betting angle here, so I'd suggest we put our collective brains together and nominate horses that qualify, and I'll add them to the list for us to watch and potentially jump on early:
McFabulous NH
Grand Sancy NC
Thyme White NH
Southfield Harvest NH
Getaway Trump NC
Ask For Glory NH
Francin NH
It potentially makes for an interesting list of horses that might be able to exploit the early season novice races that have any decent value attached. The big UK stables will certainly want to exploit it. And from a betting angle, we're talking about more experienced horses who will go into the good earlier novice races with an experience and jumping advantage. There are surely horses that were going to be targeted at Aintree rather than Cheltenham that could be really good pick-ups if we can find them.
It might be worth compiling a list here, particularly with a view to the Open meeting in November at Cheltenham. Also for fellow stats lovers it may well change a few trends you'd think. Not just for the Open Meeting, but also possibly the Festival itself, so it's something to be mindful of.
There are also plenty more graded novice races to look out for outside of Cheltenham, particularly at Chepstow, Newbury, Kempton, Ascot, Aintree, Sandown, etc, that will be targeted. So it's definitely an angle to be on top of and be ahead of the game, that has the potential to give a betting/value advantage before punters/bookies latch on.
Those that have been pointed out to me so far are the Ditcheat horses, and Nicholls is sure to go out of his way to exploit the new rules. But Nicky Hendserson, Dan Skelton, Olly Murphy, Fergal O'Brien, Twister, Hobbs, et al will all be looking at how to take advantage. There's a potential betting angle here, so I'd suggest we put our collective brains together and nominate horses that qualify, and I'll add them to the list for us to watch and potentially jump on early:
McFabulous NH
Grand Sancy NC
Thyme White NH
Southfield Harvest NH
Getaway Trump NC
Ask For Glory NH
Francin NH
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