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  1. #11
    Apprentice Fat Jockey (5lb claim) Kotkijet's Avatar
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    Ireland's first juvenile hurdle of the season takes place at Roscommon on Monday and is due to see several top yards in the division represented. Eleven races of its type have taken place at the course since 2011 with the average winning dosage index being 1.75 mean and 1.77 median. Roscommon being a sharp track with some of the lowest seconds-per-furlong average times would correspond with these relatively high DIs. The race, particularly with its large field size looks like a trappy affair and while a couple of nice horses might emerge, it should still be approached with caution as most of the contenders have quesions to answer.

    A Mere Bagatelle bg John Joseph Hanlon (56) 50
    Born To Sea (Fasliyev){11}(4.00) 3/1 Kerawi 1st Christmas Hurdle (G1), Kempton 1997
    A Mere Bagatelle had three flat starts last season for Jonathan Fogarty and found himself well beaten on each occasion. There were some useful animals ahead of him in those races such as Innisfree, Shekhem and Mogul, but he was too far away from them to catch any kudos by proxy. On breeding, A Mere Bagatelle ticks several boxes as his sire has made a decent start in the discipline and his granddam was a sibling of good hurdler Kerawi. There would be nagging stamina doubts, particularly as the family sees a marked improvement with a lower dosage index, although Roscommon is one of the less demanding tracks in that regard.

    Belgoprince chg A J Martin (70.4) 48
    Prince Gibraltar (Bering){9-f}(0.82) 2/1 Golden Marvel Jumps winner in USA
    Belgoprince had nine starts in his native France with the last three coming in claimers at Marseille's Pont-de-Vivaux. He won the first of those races before being beaten into third and second while coming ahead at the weights. He was claimed for 16,256 after the third of those outings where he showed a decent willingness to hit the front before possibly idling close to the line. The winner that day has since been finishing mid division in handicaps, the third places has been runner up in handicaps his last three starts and the fourth's valeur has risen to 34 so Belgoprince's official rating of 70 looks very fair on that basis. Following a three month absense, he made his Irish debut in a Ballinrobe apprentice handicap where he finished down the field after receiving little support in the market. Only Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins have sent out more juveniles than Tony Martin than 2011/12 although his winners to runners ratio is rather on the lower end of the scale and he has not recently been amongst the winners. Sire Prince Gibraltar has yet to have a hurdler in the UK or Ireland but has had four in France thus far including a winner and two placed horses - one of those being recent Arqana sales topper Prunay. His dam has a jumps winning sibling in America and is herself 3/2 with the decent French juveniles Houx Maqique and Hoc Volo. Belgoprince is certainly capable of making a useful juvenile hurdler although it remains to be seen if he is firing on all cylinders first time out.

    Calidus Mirabilis bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien (68) 75
    Hot Streak (Oasis Dream){4-j}(1.50) 4/5 La Limagne 1st Handicap Hurdle, Auteuil 2018
    Joseph O'Brien's first juvenile runner of the season, Calidus Mirabilis was twice successful on the all weather at the beginning of the year when taking successive handicaps at Dundalk and then at Chelmsford. He showed a nice attitude in the process of winning at Chelmsford although he did drift to his right at Dundalk both when winning in January and when runner up in the middle of last month. The form is fair although his official flat rating of 70 may be the ceiling of his ability and a switch to hurdling at this stage may be done as an alternative to competing off his mark. Calidus Mirabilis will also be Hot Streak's first offspring to go over jumps and while Iffraaj (also on the Zafonic sireline) produced last season's good juvenile and stablemate Cerberus, the latter's damsire Montjeu is a far more secure stamina influence than Oasis Dream.

    Dazzling Darren chg Gavin Cromwell (68) 70
    Dragon Pulse (Dark Angel){16-f}(1.67) no jumps relatives
    When looking at trainers whose charges improve for the switch between codes, of those with ten or more qualifiers, Gavin Cromwell sits atop the table with 80% of his juveniles improving on their equivalent flat ratings. He is due to saddle two in this field, the first being the mount of Conor McNamara. Dazzing Darren joined the Gavin Cromwell yard for 4,200 after a winless six race season as a two year old which saw him earn a rating of 49. Following a hat-trick of wins at Chelmsford, Lingfield and Wolverhampton that rating increased to 58 and a further increase to the current 68 followed three successive seconds at this track in handicaps ranging from ten furlongs on good-to-firm to twelve furlongs on heavy. This sequence of consistency came to an end last week at Galway where he was perhaps keener than usual in first time blinkers which are left off here. The form of these runs is reasonable without being remarkable but he does have the measure of several of these rivals. Dazzing Darren's case does rather deteriorate when considering his pedigree as Dragon Pulse has a mere 3% strike rate with his juveniles and there are no jumpers to be found within recent generations on the damline.

    Differentiate bg Gavin Cromwell (55) 58
    Maxios (Kris S){2-d}(1.21) 2/2 Maxios 3/1 Exit To Nowhere
    The other Cromwell entry, Differentiate differentiates from stablemate Dazzling Darren in that while his flat form is weaker, his pedigree profile is stronger. Insofar as his flat form is concerned, he has improved recently and is showing consistency with two third place finishes over distances of thirteen and fourteen furlongs. However, his mark of 55 is the lowest of all those achieved by his rivals bar one and the subsequent form of his outings are in keeping with the low ratings involved. Nevertheless, Differentiate's stallion Maxios is a force in this division with his winners to runners, wins to runs, 108+ RPRs and improvement rates all near or at the top. And although there are no jumpers on the immediate damline, Differentiate's dam is a half sister to leading juvenile sire Maxios. Though one might ruminate on Maxios and the fondness he has for his auntie, a more interesting fact is that his uncle Exit To Nowhere was a very decent dual-purpose sire. Differentiate's career began at the yard of Andrew Oliver under whose care Dodging Bullets, Mega Fortune and Gavin Cromwell's winning juvenile Plain Talking also made their first steps onto the racecourse. It is difficult to get away from the low standard of Differentiate's flat form, particularly as he is badly weighted against several of these, since his profile would otherwise make plenty of appeal.

    Jeff Kidder bg Noel Meade (64) 71
    Hallowed Crown (Rail Link){1-l}(0.71) no jumps relatives (2/2 Lady Kapalua)
    Well beaten on his three runs last year, Jeff Kidder slipped up in the early stages of a ten furlong handicap at this track in mid June. However, he showed no ill effects for that incident and has twice been a narrowly beaten runner up in a pair of 1m5f handicaps at Sligo and Ballinrobe. The front two pulled over six lengths clear in the latter race and while Jeff Kidder was a touch flattered to finish close to the well handicapped winner Shumaker, the form was boosted when that horse followed up again at Down Royal. Noel Meade has an excellent record with juvenile hurdlers and his winners to runners rate of 39% increases to 50% when accounting only for horses he trained on the flat himself. Winning juvenile hurdles with flat ratings lower than 65 is not a problem for the trainer either with both Bat Masterson and Dodgybingo successful in this sphere with a flat rating of 63. Sire Hallowed Crown has yet to sire any jumps runners but while his sire Street Sense managed to produce a winning juvenile, the Machiavellian line is not altogether encouraging in this sphere. Neither is there much encouragement to draw from Rail Link's influence or that of the damline. Although the negativity surrounding this pedigree is based more on an absence of solid information rather than confirmation of underperformance, it is still detrimental to the horse's overall profile.

    Little Brother bg J A Nash (57) 57
    Gale Force Ten (Thunder Gulch){5-h}(3.00) 4/1 Salamah 3rd Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle, Ascot 1998
    Little Brother got off the mark on his eighth attempt when winning a Sligo handicap by a neck from Jeff Kidder and Differentiate and had twice placed in Roscommon handicaps leading up to that race.
    The win came after a step up of three furlongs in trip after shaping as though further would suit when twice placed over ten furlongs. The form of that win has stood up with the next three home each finishing placed in similar handicaps and while he was a beaten favourite last time at Killarney, it did not represent a major regression. Notwithstanding, the gap of seven pounds in the official ratings between himself and Jeff Kidder seems fair. The records of sire and trainer in this sphere are respectable without being prolific.

    Longclaw bc Gordon Elliott (84) 83
    Kitten's Joy (Dixie Union){3-d}(2.38) american family
    After beginning at the Curragh in July and finishing third behind Group One winners Alpine Star and Santiago, Longclaw's two year old career saw him contest a listed contest at Kentucky Downs where he was able to pick up nearly forty thousand pound's worth of third place prize money. After another run at Churchill Downs in November, Longclaw crossed the Atlantic once again to resume his career in Ireland. His return came in less esteemed company in a Roscommon maiden but would finish down the field after drifting to 11/4 from a morning price of 11/10. He was then tried in cheekpieces for his next start but was beaten even further, albeit in slightly stronger company. Gordon Elliott is the leading trainer of juveniles in Ireland with fifty-five individual winners since 2011/12 and the best of Longclaw's flat form is far superior to anything else produced by this field's runners. However, his profile is a regressive one and there is no salvation to be found in either his pedigree or the fact that he is still an entire.

    Orchestral Rain bg W McCreery (-) 69
    Born To Sea (Val Royal){23}(2.43) 2/1 Crafty Codger 1st 3YO Hurdle, Punchestown 2014
    With just the one start, Orchestral Rain is the least exposed of those with experience and that run came in a Killarney maiden where he finished a neck behind Longclaw. It was not a run without promise as after a slow start, he was pushed into a promising position where perhaps too much use was made of him. He lost his place turning in but kept on without being given too hard a time and shaped as though he would very much improve for the experience. Willie McCreery has not saddled a jumps winner in over five years but he can get improvement between codes out of his juveniles and has enjoyed three winners on the flat in the past fortnight including one at Galway. Born To Sea counts the classy A Wave Of The Sea and Aspire Tower along with triple winner Malangan among his early crops of juveniles - the latter two carrying DIs above 2.50. Orchestral Rain's dam is a half sister to winning juvenile Crafty Codger from the family of Alflora, Ardross and Scorpion. His trainer's recent record in jumps races is a concern and Orchestral Rain is mostly an unproven entity but an expectable improvement on his debut run would put his flat form close to the best available from this field and his pedigree has a very favourable feel.

    Strip Light chg M Halford (68) 67
    Outstrip (Dark Angel){1-p}(2.00) 3/1 Fine Lace 2nd Juvenile Hurdle, Chepstow 2010
    It has been a very long time since Michael Halford has sent out a juvenile hurdler but he was the handler of Triumph Hurdle third Golden Cross early on in his training career. However, while Golden Cross's sire Goldmark was a stamina influence who stood as a jumping sire, the same may not ring true for Outstrip. Strip Light has yet to finish within seven lengths of the winner in his three starts on the flat although it would be inaccurate to say he has found himself particularly disgraced. Nevertheless, the official mark of 68 looks steep and while there are capable juveniles on the damline, others here have more solid profiles.

    Summit Rock bg T G McCourt (56) 69
    Exceed And Excel (Iceman){16-a}(1.00) 2/2 Quick Jack 1st Galway Hurdle (136), Galway 2015
    Summit Rock was initially handed a rating of 74 after three runs in Dundalk maidens for Dermot Weld last year. That rating was based on the sole occasion he was beaten less than four lengths and that came in a maiden that has produced only one subsequent winner. After selling at Goffs for 6000 in February, Summit Rock has been well beaten in four handicaps and his current rating of 56 is greater than the sum of those efforts. While he is related to winners on the dam's side, including Galway Hurdle winner Quick Jack, his sire has a poor record in this sphere.

    Tipperary Moon bg Des Donovan (50) 40
    Sea Moon (Vale Of York){3-d}(1.29) 3/0 Celestial Choir 1st Dipper Novices' Chase, Newcastle 1998
    Tipperary Moon will be the first jumps runner for his sire but his damsire produced two winning juveniles of his own and his great granddam was a useful chaser in the nineties. However, the standard of his three flat runs is poor and his trainer has yet to saddle a jumps winner.

    Lady Kapalua bf J P Dempsey Unraced
    Maxios (Champs Elysees){1-l}(0.76) no jumps relatives (2/2 Jeff Kidder)
    Lady Kapula is an unraced filly from a family with no close jumping relatives and from a yard for whom none of its six juveniles have won since 2011/12. The aforementioned Maxios is a stallion worthy of regard and while Champs Elysees mares have yet to produce any jumps runners in the UK or Ireland, he is an above average stallion in the division. It would be difficult to build a case on her sire and damsire alone but she would not be entirely dismissed.

    Merry Poppins grf J Motherway Unraced
    Authorized (Peintre Celebre){1-w}(0.68) 2/1 In On The Act 3rd Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Plumpton 2006
    Another unraced filly representing another top class sire of juvenile hurdlers. Only Mastercraftsman (21) has sired more winning juveniles than Authorized (20) since 2011/12 and the latter has done so with fewer runners. Peintre Celebre is also an above average damsire whose statistics are only marginally inferior to those of Champs Elysees. Merry Poppins will be only the second juvenile hurdler from the yard since 2011/12 and once again, a strong argument for her can not be made based on decent sirelines alone.

    Runcible bf Miss Katy Brown (59) 61
    Ivawood (Tiger Hill){9-c}(1.67) 2/1 Cyborg 122 1st Maiden Hurdle, Ballinrobe 2010
    First Reserve. Was not disgraced in her defeats in maiden company over ten furlongs at Lingfield or Leopardstown but has since disappointed in two subsequent outings. Ivawood is zero from one with juvenile hurdlers and his sire Zebedee has a poor record in the division. Tiger Hill is respectable in the sphere but there is not much else on which to hinge her case.

    Hay Kimbello blg Denis Gerard Hogan (-) 24
    Alhebayeb (Key Of Luck){6-e}(2.00) 3/2 Midnight Legend 3rd Aintree Hurdle (G1), Aintree 1999
    Second reserve. Was beaten a combined forty-nine lengths in two maidens last year and was beaten twenty-three lengths when 150/1 for his reappearance at Gowran Park in June. Related to Midnight Legend and Key Of Luck is an able damsire but neither the records of her sire nor trainer in this division inspire enthusiasm.

    Voice Of Hope brg Andrew Slattery (63) 72
    Poet's Voice (Montjeu){14-c}(0.82) 3/1 Pack The Punch 3rd Maiden Hurdle, Wexford 2015
    Third reserve. Has not raced this season and his form rather tailed off towards the backend of the last campaign. Should stay on breeding and his sire, trainer and damsire are not without their merits in the sphere. Damline also features good jumps stallions Sholokhov and Soldier Of Fortune. Perhaps worthier of a place in this field than a few of the declared runners but still has an absence and loss of form to overcome.

    Strong prospects
    1. Orchestral Rain
    2. Jeff Kidder
    3. Belgoprince
    Reasonable prospects
    4. Dazzling Darren
    5. Calidus Mirabilis
    6. Longclaw
    Feasible prospects
    7. Differentiate
    8. Little Brother
    Moderate prospects
    9. Lady Kapalua
    10. Voice Of Hope (R)
    11. Merry Poppins
    12. Strip Light
    13. A Mere Bagatelle
    Negligible prospects
    14. Summit Rock
    15. Tipperary Moon
    16. Runcible (R)
    17. Hay Kimbello (R)

  2. #12
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) nortonscoin200's Avatar
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    Cracking stuff again Kotkijet - much better breakfast read than the SundayTimes.

  3. #13
    Apprentice Fat Jockey (5lb claim) Kotkijet's Avatar
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    Not content with simply writing a 2844 word essay on a Monday afternoon Roscommon maiden hurdle, I dedicated a large portion of my bike ride this morning to thinking about the race. Perhaps the scenery of my Peak District route would have sufficed in keeping my attention were I not peddling into a driving headwind while getting pelted with thick rain but I did get to thinking about the success rates of juveniles purchased from French claimers.

    So according to my records, thirty juvenile hurdlers since the 2011/12 season were sourced in French claimers. Sixteen from flat claimers and fourteen from the hurdle races. Overall, seven of those horses won as juveniles, three bought from flat claimers and four from the jumps and the wins to runs rates are four from forty-nine flat (8.2%) and four from fifty-eight jumps (6.9%)

    The median jumps rating of those purchased from claiming hurdles was 111 while the median RPR achieved in the UK/IRE during the juvenile season was 108. This dip in standard was slight compared to the flat claimed counterparts who earned a median RPR of just 89.5 despite a median flat mark of 71.5. Only one horse of these thirty recouped their claiming price during their juvenile season and that was Chic Name who earned 20,668 in prize money during a ten race campaign after being claimed by Richard Hobson out of the Augustin Adeline De Boisbrunet yard for €13,000.

    Insofar as tomorrow's race is concerned Tony Martin's Belgoprince was claimed from Cedric Rossi for €16,256. Belgoprince is set to be the sixth horse claimed from French claimers (all flat races incidentally) to run over hurdles as a juvenile for the yard during this time period. None of them have won in fourteen starts between them and only Fullmoon In Paris collected any prize money courtesy of her thirty-seven length fourth in a Gowran maiden in 2017. Tropic Thunder would win two on the bounce after leaving the Martin yard and Mydor landed the odds for Tony Martin in a Fairyhouse Handicap as a five-year-old. Another who would enjoy success under the care of the Summerhill trainer was Heartbreak City. After changing hands for €23,006, Heartbreak City would not win his first race for his new handler until the summer as a five year old when taking a class 2 York handicap. He would go on to win another handicap at the venue in the shape of the 2016 Ebor before finishing runner up in the Melbourne Cup.

    Nevertheless, while Belgoprince might one day earn nearly three quarters of a million pounds, I am not quite as optimistic about his prospects in tomorrow's race and will change the prospects list accordingly. Once again, this is only to contextualise the race in advance and should not be taken as a tip. I am not a tipster. Mercifully, the parasites have not priced this one up yet so the original prospects list will not have affected anybody's financial wellbeing. I hope... If there ends up being an avalanche of money for Belgoprince then his prospects improve but otherwise, they lie somewhere between reasonable and feasible. I am not a tipster.

    Strong prospects
    1. Orchestral Rain
    2. Jeff Kidder
    Reasonable prospects
    3. Dazzling Darren
    4. Calidus Mirabilis
    5. Longclaw
    6. Belgoprince
    Feasible prospects
    7. Differentiate
    8. Little Brother
    Moderate prospects
    9. Lady Kapalua
    10. Voice Of Hope (R)
    11. Merry Poppins
    12. Strip Light
    13. A Mere Bagatelle
    Negligible prospects
    14. Summit Rock
    15. Tipperary Moon
    16. Runcible (R)
    17. Hay Kimbello (R)

    Quote Originally Posted by nortonscoin200 View Post
    Cracking stuff again Kotkijet - much better breakfast read than the SundayTimes.
    Cheers NC.

    Pleased as I am that somebody would read my essay, I did wonder if perhaps you had not been reading your Sunday paper thoroughly enough...

    *language warning*
    Last edited by Kotkijet; 2nd August 2020 at 02:10 PM. Reason: missed out the word Ebor

  4. #14
    Professional Fat Jockey (Moderator) Istabraq's Avatar
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    Look forward to your views when we start to see some serious juveniles out Kotkijet, as useful as it is to see your analysis for M Rasen and Roscommon I doubt we’ll see too many of these horses competing for top honours, but some of those decent Oct/Nov races will prove very informative and your efforts may well find us the odd nugget...

  5. #15
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) nortonscoin200's Avatar
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    Guilty - catching the next flight to Tibet.

  6. #16
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) nortonscoin200's Avatar
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    Couldn't resist a little each way flutter on Orchestral Rain at 20-1 because the market just doesn't make sense.

    Orchestral Rain finished a neck behind Longclaw over 1m 3f on the flat three weeks ago.

    Longclaw already had the benefit of a previous run and Orchestral Rain was making his racecourse debut.

    They reoppose on the same terms over an extra half mile.

    But Longclaw - trained by Gordon Elliott - is 11-8 and Orchestral Rain is 20-1 with B365 (14-1 elsewhere).

    The key word in the market is obviously "Gordie"....but even so.

    On this occasion I'd rather be on I'm-not-a-tipster Mr Kotkijet's side.

    Whatever happens this will brighten up a Monday afternoon.
    Last edited by nortonscoin200; 2nd August 2020 at 06:56 PM.

  7. #17
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) nortonscoin200's Avatar
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    Pressure off Kotkijet - watched the video of Orchestral Rain's debut and cashed out.

    I can't see him beating Jeff Kidder and even though he's now best price 14-1 (5 non runners) for better or worse I've decided not to chance it.

  8. #18
    Stable Fat Jockey (Moderator) ComplyOrDie's Avatar
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    Great effort that Kotkijet. Your top 5 finishing in the top 5

  9. #19
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) nortonscoin200's Avatar
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    Great stuff Kotkijet, very impressive .

  10. #20
    Professional Fat Jockey (Moderator) Istabraq's Avatar
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    Just seen this Kotkijet and very early proof your efforts are valuable.
    Look forward to the next installment...

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