Best bets so far

[Saxon Warrior]

I thought Thyme Hill could have done with a run in January/February, even a romp over poor opposition.
It’s a tad long off for a Novice hurdler trying to win that Grade 1.
The trainer expressed concern about not running him often, and losing condition, after each of his 3 novice hurdle wins, so maybe he’s the type of horse that needs minding more than usual.

8 of the last 10 Bartlett winners had run during the calendar year, and the three in the photo with him had all ran in 2020.

Plus of course the twice he was squeezed up, (1) running at full pelt towards the last, and then (2) after the last, probably was the difference between him being involved in a 4-way photo rather than a length or so back.

[Middle_Of_March]

Envoi Allen 13/2 and 6/1 Marsh Chase.

I'd expect him line be odds on if lining up in the Marsh. He's the best horse in training, imo.

Agreed and agreed.

He just wins if he makes it there and has remembered how to jump since that Point To Point.

[Kevloaf]

Agree entirely Kev.

Baracouda won the Stayers in 2002 and 2003 - second time aged 8
Inglis Drever won in 2005, 2007, 2008 - second time aged 8
Big Bucks won from 2009-2012 - third time aged 8
Lisnagar Oscar - 2020,2021 - second time aged 8

The trainer's already said this will again be his target and at current prices imo he rates the best bet - hard to see him out of the frame. I've just topped up with another couple of points each way at 17.5-1 with boost.

Just looked through Sky's RABs and Lisnagar Oscar doesn't feature in any of them - he's just not sexy.

Think his price reflects his chance. Last year's race was a mess. The fav didn't run his race. LO was beaten fair and square in the trials and the 2nd is no more than s handicapper. Think he'll find 2 or 3 too good.

He is the same price as Sire Du Berlais.

I think you'd struggle to come up a case whereby Sire Du Berlais is a better value pick as the Pertemps winner than the Stayers Hurdle winner.


Taking a literal time comparison is flawed in my opinion, the way races are run has too big an impact on this for it to be fool proof. I think we're talking less than 3 seconds over a 6 minute race... which is either 19 or 22 seconds slower than 'standard'.


That is the "best case" I've seen made for Sire De Berlais, and he's the same price as this years winner.




I don't see them as having "the same chance" of winning and I don't see them as equal in value at all.

Happy to read through cases people want to make though

[BigChaang]

I'd say Latest Exhibition @ 16-1 for the R.S.A chase .
Trainer already confirmed Chasing the aim .
and obviously the distance suit's nicely.
In Plenty of my Multi's . ..

[Lobos]

He is the same price as Sire Du Berlais.

I think you'd struggle to come up a case whereby Sire Du Berlais is a better value pick as the Pertemps winner than the Stayers Hurdle winner.


Taking a literal time comparison is flawed in my opinion, the way races are run has too big an impact on this for it to be fool proof. I think we're talking less than 3 seconds over a 6 minute race... which is either 19 or 22 seconds slower than 'standard'.


That is the "best case" I've seen made for Sire De Berlais, and he's the same price as this years winner.




I don't see them as having "the same chance" of winning and I don't see them as equal in value at all.

Happy to read through cases people want to make though

I could have sworn you poo pooed the 16/1 on LO and dismissed him as a poor winner of the Stayers or have I got my wires crossed?

[Kevloaf]

I could have sworn you poo pooed the 16/1 on LO and dismissed him as a poor winner of the Stayers or have I got my wires crossed?

I put him up as an ante post bet at 25/1 and made the case on the forum.... so I don't think I would have poo pooed the price at 16/1, although maybe I said I am in no rush or something like that (but that'd be because I have the bigger price).

I can't recall exactly what I thought about the Stayers during my analysis, but off the top of my head I think I was/am willing to give Paisley Park another chance, I think the winner is being over looked as he's not that sexy and overall it was a pretty weak race, however it will be most years as it's not a great division.

[Lobos]

I put him up as an ante post bet at 25/1 and made the case on the forum.... so I don't think I would have poo pooed the price at 16/1, although maybe I said I am in no rush or something like that (but that'd be because I have the bigger price).

I can't recall exactly what I thought about the Stayers during my analysis, but off the top of my head I think I was/am willing to give Paisley Park another chance, I think the winner is being over looked as he's not that sexy and overall it was a pretty weak race, however it will be most years as it's not a great division.

Just found it. Was at the end of last year's thread where you said you couldn't bring yourself to back him at 16/1. I totally agree with that....... couldn't bring myself to back him at 66/1 ! They have a habit of making fools of us though these beasts !

[Kevloaf]

Just found it. Was at the end of last year's thread where you said you couldn't bring yourself to back him at 16/1. I totally agree with that....... couldn't bring myself to back him at 66/1 ! They have a habit of making fools of us though these beasts !

Having backed (and put up) Paisley at 10/1 and Lisnager Oscar at 25/1, I would agree with my statement...



If you wouldn't back a previous winner at 66/1, it explains why you likely don't make money at this game.

I know you say you do, but I can't see your diary




To be fair, the main reason I put up the LO case in here was to mimic Quevega's post but with a 4x bigger price with the same words.


My best best this far out would be Elixir D'ainay at 33/1 in the Arkle.... but that just highlights how hard it is to have a best bet now.

I don't like Galvin any race, Chosen Mate for the QMCC or Sire Du Berlais that I know you've backed, but you might land the treble!

[Lobos]

Having backed (and put up) Paisley at 10/1 and Lisnager Oscar at 25/1, I would agree with my statement...



If you wouldn't back a previous winner at 66/1, it explains why you likely don't make money at this game.

I know you say you do, but I can't see your diary




To be fair, the main reason I put up the LO case in here was to mimic Quevega's post but with a 4x bigger price with the same words.


My best best this far out would be Elixir D'ainay at 33/1 in the Arkle.... but that just highlights how hard it is to have a best bet now.

I don't like Galvin any race, Chosen Mate for the QMCC or Sire Du Berlais that I know you've backed, but you might land the treble!

The 66/1 LO was in relation to the price he was last year...that said , I won't be backing him at any price this year. Good luck with the bet though. Re me making a profit at the festival.....I do now on a regular basis but it's not what gives me the buzz anymore. I'd go racing even without the betting aspect and have been to Bath races a couple of times during lockdown (sad I know)watching from the public footpath in the sun which was strange but fantastic none the less . I only bet when I go to meetings and spend the whole week at the festival so that's the only meeting I end up having a AP portfolio in. As that's the only thing I've had to concentrate on for the last 4 months clearly it's a lot bigger at this stage than it normally is but I'm very confident that come March it'll provide me with plenty of winners crossing that famous finishing line. Can't wait!!

[Quevega]

"watching racing at Bath racecourse in the sun, from a public footpath".

strange and fantastic !

Tells you a lot about lockdown.
Or Lobos ?


Hope you had your trousers on.

[Lobos]

"watching racing at Bath racecourse in the sun, from a public footpath".

strange and fantastic !

Tells you a lot about lockdown.
Or Lobos ?


Hope you had your trousers on.

Lol ! I was actually topless if that floats your boat ! Was great though to get up close to the horses going behind the stalls and rattling past the rails. Brought a bit of normality back. Sounds like October will be the first time spectators can make a proper visit to a racecourse so I reckon my first day out since the festival will be the Hennessy in December.........crazy.

[Quevega]

Lol ! I was actually topless if that floats your boat ! Was great though to get up close to the horses going behind the stalls and rattling past the rails. Brought a bit of normality back. Sounds like October will be the first time spectators can make a proper visit to a racecourse so I reckon my first day out since the festival will be the Hennessy in December.........crazy.

Booked a hotel for the October meeting at cheltenham just in case.
If we're not allowed in I'll probably end up walking topless along footpaths in the Cotswolds.
Or sat somewhere on Cleeve hill, completely naked.

[Lobos]

Booked a hotel for the October meeting at cheltenham just in case.
If we're not allowed in I'll probably end up walking topless along footpaths in the Cotswolds.
Or sat somewhere on Cleeve hill, completely naked.

Might join you at Cheltenham..............at the course that is, not naked on Cleeve Hill !

Looking at the 2019 results from that 2 day meeting I think The only festival winner to come out of it was The Conditional and apart from him Saint Calvados was the only other placed at the festival.

[somer1]

Easy.After yesterday its Shishkin in singles,doubles,trebles,and a 4 fold.Followed by Santini and Fakir