Triumph Hurdle 2021

[ComplyOrDie]

FWIW Tritonic isn't going down the Triumph route currently, for those that were contemplating backing that one.

The McNeill family replied to someone on Twitter regarding this.

[Kotkijet]

History supports much of what was stated in the above posts re;- Alan King and his recent juveniles.

Since the 2015/16 season, Alan King has sent out 25 juveniles who like Tritonic and Midnights Legacy spent their flat careers at the same yard. Of those 25, only six had official ratings that exceeded 80 and with the exception of Cosmeapolitan - who won his sole start - they all picked up two races apiece. Tritonic would have been the highest rated of the lot although that's looking rather moot at this stage. Neverlethess, Midnights Legacy's mark of 90 puts him behind only Chatez (a questionable stayer) and Cosmeapolitan and while it is not a lofty standard, he would still be the strongest animal of his type for a while. Furthermore the owners were keen to go hurdling last year, even if Trueshan and Tritonic have shown us that nothing is set in stone!

As far as the Triumph and its relevance as an ante-post interest is concerned, with the help of archived shots of oddschecker, I have been able to find snapshots of markets at various points of the past few seasons...

2015
1.Peace And Co 2/1f
2.Top Notch 7/1
3.Hargam 8/1

11/10/14 Hargam 20
11/10/14 Timiyan 20
11/10/14 Chartbreaker 25
11/10/14 Kalkir 33
11/10/14 Karezak 33
11/10/14 Limini 33
11/10/14 Top Notch 33
11/10/14 Unanimite 33

25/12/14 Peace And Co 4.5
25/12/14 Kalkir 6
25/12/14 Hargam 14
25/12/14 Bonito Du Berlais 18
25/12/14 Golden Doyen 20
25/12/14 Top Notch 33

2016
1.Ivanovich Gorbatov 9/2f
2.Apple's Jade 12/1
3.Footpad 5/1

22/09/15 Zubayr 16
22/09/15 Fixe Le Kap 25
22/09/15 John F Kennedy 25
22/09/15 Khezerabad 25
22/09/15 Lets Dance 25
22/09/15 Red Hammer 25

21/12/15 Footpad 16
21/12/15 Rashaan 16
21/12/15 Zubayrr 19
21/12/15 Kasakh Noir 20
21/12/15 Who Dares Wins 20
21/12/15 Outspoken 20
21/12/15 Sceau Royal 20
21/12/15 Zubayr 20
21/12/15 Campeador 20
21/12/15 Ivanovich Gorbatov 25

08/02/16 Ivanovich Gorbatov 6
08/02/16 Fixe Le Kap 8
08/02/16 Sceau Royal 8
08/02/16 Gibralfaro 10
08/02/16 Connetable 12
08/02/16 Footpad 12
08/02/16 Apples Jade 21

2017
1.Defi Du Seuil 5/2f
2.Mega Fortune 7/1
3.Bapaume 10/1

21/09/16 Bapaume 20
21/09/16 Catwells 20
21/09/16 Landofhopeandglory 20
21/09/16 Camprock 25
21/09/16 Flying Tiger 25
21/09/16 Meri Devie 25
21/09/16 Sir Valentine 25

22/10/16 Francin 16
22/10/16 Bapaume 20
22/10/16 Catwells 20
22/10/16 Landofhopeandglory 20
22/10/16 Camprock 25
22/10/16 Cliffs Of Dover 25
22/10/16 Defi Du Seuil 25
22/10/16 Divin Bere 25
22/10/16 Dolos 25
22/10/16 Flying Tiger 25
22/10/16 Gunnery 25
22/10/16 Laws Of Spin 25
22/10/16 Lord Justice 25
22/10/16 Meri Devie 25
22/10/16 Mega Fortune 33

26/12/16 Defi Du Seuil 8
26/12/16 Bapaume 10
26/12/16 Landofhopeandglory 12
26/12/16 Housesofparliament 16
26/12/16 Cliffs Of Dover 20
26/12/16 Charli Parcs 20
26/12/16 Dinaria Des Obeaux 20
26/12/16 Laws Of Spin 20
26/12/16 Sword Fighter 20
26/12/16 Mega Fortune 25

04/02/17 Defi Du Seuil 4.2
04/02/17 Charli Parcs 9
04/02/17 Meri Devie 9
04/02/17 Dinaria Des Obeaux 10
04/02/17 Bapaume 14.2
04/02/17 Cliffs Of Dover 16
04/02/17 Landofhopeandglory 16
04/02/17 Housesofparliament 20
04/02/17 Mega Fortune 25

2018
1.Farclas 9/1
2.Mr Adjudicator 8/1
3.Sayo 33/1

10/09/17 Empreinte Reconce 25
10/09/17 Espoir Dallen 25
10/09/17 Grand Sancy 25
10/09/17 Apples Shakira 33
10/09/17 Demopolis 33
10/09/17 Nathan 33

19/11/17 Apples Shakira 5
19/11/17 Espoir Dallen 16
19/11/17 Mitchouka 20
19/11/17 Grand Sancy 25
19/11/17 Gumball 25

Unable to find any markets prior to Cheltenham week itself

2019
1.Pentland Hills 20/1
2.Coeur Sublime 20/1
3.Gardens Of Babylon 9/1

06/10/18 Astronomer 25
06/10/18 Adjali 33
06/10/18 Chief Justice 33
06/10/18 Coeur Sublime 33
06/10/18 Jack Regan 33
06/10/18 Lethal Steps 33
06/10/18 Never Adapt 33
06/10/18 Runrized 33
06/10/18 Staking 33
06/10/18 Tiger Tap Tap 33

20/12/18 Adjali 10
20/12/18 Never Adapt 16
20/12/18 Quel Destin 20
20/12/18 Torpillo 20
20/12/18 Astronomer 25
20/12/18 Coeur Sublime 25
20/12/18 Coko Beach 25
20/12/18 Deadline Diva 25
20/12/18 Fructine 25
20/12/18 Jon Snow 25
20/12/18 Sir Erec 25

02/02/19 Sir Erec 1.75
02/02/19 Fakir Doudairies 10
02/02/19 Pic dOrhy 16
02/02/19 Quel Destin 16
02/02/19 Tiger Tap Tap 16
02/02/19 Carlo Biraghi 20
02/02/19 Gardens Of Babylon 20
02/02/19 Torpillo 20
02/02/19 Coeur Sublime 25
02/02/19 Pentland Hills 33

2020
1.Burning Victory 12/1
2.Aspire Tower 5/1
3.Allmankind 7/2

15/08/19 Gin On Lime 16
15/08/19 Aweedram 33
15/08/19 Beatboxer 33
15/08/19 Eminent Authority 33
15/08/19 Hipsters 33
15/08/19 Mick Pastor 33
15/08/19 The Olympian 33
15/08/19 Goshen 40

04/10/19 Micro Manage 16
04/10/19 Gin On Lime 25
04/10/19 Beatboxer 33
04/10/19 Chez Hans 33
04/10/19 Eminent Authority 33
04/10/19 Hipsters 33
04/10/19 Il Paradiso 33
04/10/19 Mick Pastor 33
04/10/19 Rayapour 33
04/10/19 Saint DOroux 33
04/10/19 Goshen 66

25/12/19 Goshen 9
25/12/19 Micro Manage 14
25/12/19 Allmankind 16
25/12/19 Cerberus 16
25/12/19 Trueshan 16
25/12/19 Aramax 20
25/12/19 Aspire Tower 20

06/02/20 Allmankind 5
06/02/20 Goshen 5
06/02/20 Aspire Tower 8
06/02/20 A Wave of The Sea 16
06/02/20 Cerberus 20
06/02/20 Mick Pastor 20
06/02/20 Burning Victory 40

[nortonscoin200]

Fascinating stuff Kotkijet - great work.

[Kotkijet]

I have already looked at the bulk of those in the Triumph Hurdle markets although there have been a few additions over the past few weeks. The only change in the prices has been Paros has drifting from 16/1 to 33/1.

25/1 Dawn Rising bg (presumably) J O'Brien 4-1-1 RPR107
Galileo (Danehill Dancer){4-k}(0.76) 1/1 Triplicate 2nd Royal Bond Novices Hurde (G1), Fairyhouse 2018
While there has been no official word on this horse, he was recently treated to a gelding operation as well as entering most of the Triumph lists. Should he make the transition then he would make a most intriguing addition to the division. Along with being related to classic winners Sovereign, West Wind and Balanchine, he is also a full brother to Royal Bond runner up Triplicate and other good jumpers on his damline include Starchitect (2/3), Rio De Janeiro (2/1), Vandas Choice (3/1) and Butler's Cabin (5/4). Finishing last on his debut in the Group 3 Eyrefield Stakes last October, Dawn Rising broke his maiden this June at Limerick by twelve lengths from a horse who would win a handicap off 75 next time out. Allowed to travel to Newmarket for the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy, the sweaty Dawn Rising won one battle up the straight against subsequent German Oaks winner Miss Yoda but was a spent force when headed just outside the furlong marker. The winner disappointed next time in the Gordon Stakes but it is still genuine group level form. Galileo is more than capable of siring juvenile hurdlers although his best (Royal Irish Hussar, Bally Glasheen, Outspoken) have been just shy of top class and has a better record as a damsire (Pentland Hills, Hargam, Sir Erec) and similar sentiments can apply to Danehill Dancer who is again an above average damsire without getting top class juveniles through his mares. Dawn Rising would not be the first pattern class horse off the flat to run for Joseph O'Brien in juvenile hurdles and both Landofhopeandglory and Sir Erec achieved success in the sphere. However, there were another three who were also officially rated above 100 who failed to win during their first seasons over hurdles (Housesofparliament, Sword Fighter, Tree Of Knowledge) although Ivanovich Gorbatov can also be included if one counts those trained in his father's name. Overall, while Dawn Rising's profile does not make him a guaranteed success in the division, he certainly has the potential to cause problems for any horse this season.

33/1 Amhran Na Bhfiann
The Derby third was introduced to the betting by Unibet after news emerged that he suffered a condylar fracture and following an operation where he had two pins put in his fetlock joint will be out until year at the earliest. Unibet are also the only firm happy to take bets on Gordon Stakes winner Mogul and the still scratched Nimes. This behaviour from these utter parasites can be at best described as fraudulent.

50/1 Flying Scotsman bc J O'Brien 6-2-0 RPR 83
Galileo (Mastercraftsman){1-w}(0.60) 3/1 Sir Frank Morgan 1st Novices' Hurdle, Exeter 2015
Flying Scotsman is another Joseph O'Brien inmate and while his flat form does not carry the prestige of Dawn Rising, he did win two handicaps at the Galway festival last week. Finishing no better than ninth on his first four starts, this improvement was said to have resulted from a step up in trip and a softening of ground and was maintained following a drop in trip of half a mile and a firming up of the ground. Cynicism aside, he has demonstrated the blend of speed and stamina vital in this discipline and his damsire, a leading sire of juveniles, has also made a bright start with his mare's offspring in the division. Flying Scotsman will still need to improve before he can be thought of in Triumph terms but he has a nice profile and it will be no surprise if he turns out to be a useful sort.

50/1 Prunay bg Ireland f2-0-2 RPR59 h2-0-0 RPR127
Prince Gibraltar (Daylami){8-f}(1.50) 3/4 Cerberus 3rd Spring Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Leopardstown 2020
Since 2011/12 there have been seventy-four juveniles who found new homes after the Arqana Summer sales at Deavillle including Diakali, Petite Parisienne, Adriana des Mottes and Zubayr. The last named was the most expensive of them all when he fetched €380,000 in 2015 but his price is the only one that exceeds this year's top lot, Prunay, who changed hands for €240,000. Prunay's career began in a flat race at Fontainebleau last November where he finished sixth, less than two lengths behind a future listed winner and three-quarters of a length ahead of a listed third. After a return to Fontainebleau for another flat race, he once again finished sixth ahead of a pair of subsequent handicap winners. His hurdling debut came in the Prix Grandak touched upon in Mica Malpic's write up earlier in the thread. A lauchpad for such quality jumpers as Beaumac de Houelle, Storm Of Saintly and Saint des Saints, this year's renewal saw Prunay finish nine lengths behind the winner but upwards of eleven lengths of the remainder. The winner has not been seen out since and those in behind have done nothing to uphold or elevate the form. Nevertheless, Prunay did give his stock a more respectable look when finishing third in the Prix Aguado, a Grade 3 with a good tradition, at Auteuil ahead of five previous winners and jumping well in the process. Sire Prince Gibraltar has had just the one hurdler in Ireland but has had three others in France thus far including a winner and a placed horse and while the Rock Of Gibraltar line is not prolific, it can get decent types. Daylami's record as a damsire is below average but by no means the worst. Prunay's damline is not brimming with jumpers but it does include last season's decent juvenile Cerberus (3/4) with The Job Is Right (5/6) further back. It has not been disclosed which particular yard Prunay will end up but the agent Toby Jones did say he was going to clients in Ireland and stated that his being a maiden enhanced his price tag as well as describing him more a chasing type for the future.

50/1 Night And Day bf W Mullins f4-0-3 (70.4)
Sea The Moon (Danehill){9-f}(1.22) .5 Supasundae 1st Irish Champion Hurdle, Leopardstown 2018
A horse from the Arqana sales whose destination has been disclosed is Night And Day who has moved to the yard of Willie Mullins who has enjoyed winners with six of the last seven juveniles bought from Deauville. She is unraced over hurdles but earned an equivilent rating of 70.4 from four runs on the flat, three of which saw her finish placed including when runner up last time in a Clairefontaine handicap over 2900 meters. Her flat rating is the lowest of all the Mullins purchases yet at €90,000, she is the most expensive of any horse bringing a rating lower than 80 from France. This can be explained in part to her being a half sister to the top class Supasundae as well as other winners Distingo and Twenty Twenty and that her sire Sea The Moon produced winners Allmankind, Must See The Doc and Gealach in his first jumping crop. She needs to leave her flat form far behind to get to the top of the division but she obviously stays, has a likeable pedigree and is in very good hands.

50/1 Soaring Monarch bg P Fahey 6-1-2 (83) 87
Free Eagle (Dubawi){10-c}(0.90) 5/4 Bayan 1st Handicap Hurdle (G3,146), Ascot 2014
Soaring Monarch is not mentioned in terms of hurdling on the internet apart from in the Triumph lists but as his trainer predominantly handles national hunt horses, we can work on the assumption that that is where his attentions will be turned. He sprang a 50/1 surprise when losing his maiden tag at Limerick in June in a six and a half furlong maiden which has produced just one subsequent winner who landed a handicap off 59. He has since finished runner up in a pair of handicaps at the Galway festival including last time off 83 over nine and a half furlongs on soft ground. Soaring Monarch is rather distantly (5/4) related to the good handicapper Bayan but more immediately, his half brother and his dam's two siblings are all poor maidens over jumps. This will be his sire's first crop of juveniles and while his sire High Chaparral was good influence in the sphere, his sons have yet to really make a mark although Dubawi has a couple of winners from seven as a damsire. Peter Fahey has had no winner from his three juveniles since the 2011/12 season and while Soaring Monarch could well be a capable juvenile, his inclusion in the Triumph betting is very premature.

66/1 Hiconic bf A Hales f7-0-2 (57) 57 j4-4-0 (119) 115
Sixties Icon (Acclamation){1-n}(0.60) 1/0 Hi Note 2nd 4YO Hurdle, Cheltenham 2012
A great deal has already been written in the race threads about this tremendously admirable filly and she is undoubtedly the best juvenile hurdler seen to date this year in the UK. It is possible for juveniles who contest the early season contests in the summer to play a part on the great stages in the spring with the likes of Quazar and Countrywide Flame winning in August and July ahead of doing the Aintree, Punchestown double and winning at Cheltenham respectively. However, while these two horses made great strides in a couple of races before embarking on their autumn campaigns, Hiconic has already raced on four occasions and even if she has yet to plateau, most juveniles tend to do so after only a few starts. While racing post ratings have her latest performance as her best by half a stone, I gave her close to the same mark but that would be lower than what she achieved at Stratford or Bangor. Hiconic has shown herself to be a likeable horse and she has earned the right to compete for black type given the proliferation of suitable races for her gender. However, she needs to improve even further by at least a couple of stones before she can be considered for the Triumph and that is not so likely given how she is already quite exposed.

100/1 Prince Percy bg G Moore f6-0-1 (61) 65 j1-0-1 (-) 96
Sir Percy (High Chaparral){1-u}(0.39) 3/1 Walk In The Park National Hunt Stallion
Beaten by eleven lengths on his debut at Market Rasen, Prince Percy is capable of winning an ordinary contest but his Triumph hurdle credentials can not be seriously entertained barring an extraordinary level of improvement.

[Saxon Warrior]

Great stuff Kotkijet.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Really good kotkijet. Already looking forward to the next installment

[Geordieboy83]

Horse that interests me for here is LONGCLAWfor Gordon Elliott. Won well yesterday at Down Royal and run before that at Roscommon. Long way to go obviously, but at 50/1 (56/1 boosted) with Hills added 1pt e/w.

[Saxon Warrior]

Horse that interests me for here is LONGCLAWfor Gordon Elliott. Won well yesterday at Down Royal and run before that at Roscommon. Long way to go obviously, but at 50/1 (56/1 boosted) with Hills added 1pt e/w.

I watched that race live, he won well and could be good, but his jumping was sketchy.
Mind you so was was Goshen’s, and a lot of the other Triumph favs last year.

[Geordieboy83]

I watched that race live, he won well and could be good, but his jumping was sketchy.
Mind you so was was Goshen’s, and a lot of the other Triumph favs last year.

I agree, I just think at the price it is definitely worth a go, like you say could be good, remember watching Allmankind and others last year and thinking the same. Like you say.

[Saxon Warrior]

I agree, I just think at the price it is definitely worth a go, like you say could be good, remember watching Allmankind and others last year and thinking the same. Like you say.

Two wins this early and a big price does make the betting finger twitch a little.

[Spectre]

He’s not for me for a couple of reasons.

Firstly the Triumph Hurdle market is not one for me to start getting involved in this early. Most picks won’t go to the Festival at all, or will end up in the Fred Winter. Very few Triumph winners have started this early. Only Countrywide Flame from memory. If they’re highly regarded they’re usually brought along slowly. I’m sure now I’ve said that, somebody will point out a hatfull of Triumph winners who had full summer campaigns.

Secondly Gordon Elliott is sure to have better horses to come out. Quixillos would be one that on paper you’d expect to be better than Longclaw. And I’m sure there will be a lot more talent waiting in the wings. Significantly at this stage, a fit and well Longclaw doesn’t appear to be a high 150’s-160 horse in waiting. He feels more like a ‘strike while the iron is hot’ kind of horse. Plus we still need to see what all the big owners and stables have for the season.

All of that said, I’ve been wrong many times before. I was with Countrywide Flame! I still don’t want to get involved in the Triumph at this early stage though, unless it’s based on inside information.

[Geordieboy83]

He’s not for me for a couple of reasons.

Firstly the Triumph Hurdle market is not one for me to start getting involved in this early. Most picks won’t go to the Festival at all, or will end up in the Fred Winter. Very few Triumph winners have started this early. Only Countrywide Flame from memory. If they’re highly regarded they’re usually brought along slowly. I’m sure now I’ve said that, somebody will point out a hatfull of Triumph winners who had full summer campaigns.

Secondly Gordon Elliott is sure to have better horses to come out. Quixillos would be one that on paper you’d expect to be better than Longclaw. And I’m sure there will be a lot more talent waiting in the wings. Significantly at this stage, a fit and well Longclaw doesn’t appear to be a high 150’s-160 horse in waiting. He feels more like a ‘strike while the iron is hot’ kind of horse. Plus we still need to see what all the big owners and stables have for the season.

All of that said, I’ve been wrong many times before. I was with Countrywide Flame! I still don’t want to get involved in the Triumph at this early stage though, unless it’s based on inside information.

I definitely see where you are coming from Spectre, I just think at the price worth a small dabble at it. I admit it is against It horsing winning being out this early. Last year winner Burning wasn’t seen Over here until around 3 Weeks before fest, also Pentland Hills the year before was out late on. As as said though big price, and it’s a small stake at this stage.

[Spectre]

I’d never put anyone off a horse at those kinds of prices, particularly a Gordon Elliott dual winner. The thing for me really is leaving the Triumph alone for some time yet, until either I’ve seen something special, or heard something from a source.

Quixillos has been the talking horse from the Elliott stable, and some may have jumped on already, but I think I’d need a Kotkijet compelling essay about him to convince me to back him in August.

[Middle_Of_March]

Note to self for when this thread is 186 pages deep..

STAY AWAY FROM THIS MARKET UNTIL FEBRUARY AT THE EARLIEST
STAY AWAY FROM THIS MARKET UNTIL FEBRUARY AT THE EARLIEST
STAY AWAY FROM THIS MARKET UNTIL FEBRUARY AT THE EARLIEST
STAY AWAY FROM THIS MARKET UNTIL FEBRUARY AT THE EARLIEST
STAY AWAY FROM THIS MARKET UNTIL FEBRUARY AT THE EARLIEST

[Arkle]

I’m the same M.O.M leaving the triumph alone this year better value else where at this stage needle in a haystack