Spectre's Summer Special Each Way Trixie Thread

[Spectre]

Honeysuckle any race
APB gold cup
Fakir champion chase

Back with paddy p allows this, the 1 any race selection

I like the Honeysuckle any race with Paddy Power angle. It's one I hadn't thought of and I like it a lot, but I've tried to include it in a multiple and you can't back it each way. Even if you could for the purposes of this I'd exclude her anyway because there will be plenty who don't have Paddy Power accounts, and the bet needs to be widely available to all.

Therefore in terms of possible bankers, based on price and suggested horses I think the shortlist looks something like this:

Easysland
Shishkin
Envoi Allen
Epatante
Al Boum Photo

I say we should rank them, so I'll have a go:

1. Easysland 2/1 - Confirmed target and rock solid. For me he has to be first pick. It's pretty much impossible to pick any holes.

2. Envoi Allen Marsh 4/1 - I expect some will put Shishkin ahead of him because of the nagging doubt about his target, but surely he goes to the Marsh. I think it's highly likely, so having not seen Shiskin jump a fence in public he gets second spot for me.

3. Shishkin 4/1 - We haven't seen him jump yet, and he could end up in a tougher race than Envoi Allen. I could see Pic D’Orhy, Andy Dufresne, Felix Desjy, and Embittered all improving for a fence.

4. Epatante 4/1 - She was a good winner against a poor bunch last season, but it looks like a competitive race and I'm not entirely convinced she's rock solid banker material against the new kids on the block in what will be a much deeper race than the first three.

5. Al Boum Photo 6/1- A dual winner of the Gold Cup, but he only just shaded Santini in a race that was run to suit. Champ, Minella Indo, Allaho, the returning Topofhtegame, and the 2nd and 3rd from this season will make the treble bid tough. I'd see him more of a horse for the second list, that are potentially solid each way and can still win.

Can I suggest we all rank them 1-5 or at least tell me where you disagree and why, and I'll give it a few days and we can lock down this months bankers. And of course if there are any more left field options shout them out.

[Kevloaf]

Based on the anticipated price cuts for no.2 and no.3, should we ensure we get them in at the 4/1 prices before they make their chase debuts. Obvious risks attached to that, however Easysland is unlikely to change price unless Tiger Roll gets retired, even after Easysland makes seasonal reappearance the price change may only be minimal for him?

Of course July and August we have no problems, but September may be 'too late' for Shishkin or Envoi Allen, especially as the 'stable tours' will be out around then, and by October I'd hope we've seen both.... perhaps not, but I imagine when they get "declared" as going chasing that the bookies will clip them both.



2,1,3,4,5 is probably my order. Maybe 2,3,1,4,5. Perfectly happy 1,2,3,4,5 though

[ComplyOrDie]

Wasn't it these 5 horses just used for the Forum May Yankee (ended up a Super Yankee)?

Not something I'd want to get involved in again, at this stage personally, and I'm sure many are already reliant on these 'bankers'. I would ditch the 'banker' trixie myself and concentrate on the value trixies that you posted about in your diary thread Spectre, but that's just my opinion

Would prefer something a bit more out there myself. Horses that haven't necessarily been given a chance yet in the forum multiples.

[Lobos]

When picking Bankers I'd always have Hurdlers over Chasers ( especially novice chasers) due to the increased risk and potential that they don't take to fences. Easysland however does look the perverbial banker as the XCC has an exceptionally good record for horses completing compared to regular fences and id say his target is nailed on. The price though doesn't appeal which is why i'd personally rank Epatante as number 1. For me she has everything you could wish for in a Champion Hurdler. I don't see any of the horses she beat last year turning the tables which just leaves the novices having to improve enough to worry her. If she is in the same form they will have to be exceptionally good to beat her and that ridiculous 7lbs allowance.

[Lobos]

Wasn't it these 5 horses just used for the Forum May Yankee (ended up a Super Yankee)?

Not something I'd want to get involved in again, at this stage personally, and I'm sure many are already reliant on these 'bankers'. I would ditch the 'banker' trixie myself and concentrate on the value trixies that you posted about in your diary thread Spectre, but that's just my opinion

Would prefer something a bit more out there myself. Horses that haven't necessarily been given a chance yet in the forum multiples.

Think he's just trying to find horse one from that list.

[Spectre]

It's a good point CoD. And maybe this thread clashes too much with the monthly Yankee thread anyway?

[ComplyOrDie]

Think he's just trying to find horse one from that list.

Ah OK, the way I read it was that there would be three separate Trixies?

[ComplyOrDie]

It's a good point CoD. And maybe this thread clashes too much with the monthly Yankee thread anyway?

I don't think it would. but I'd like to give it a shot the way you do in your diary with your points about bigger priced selections being value for a place and even more so should the favourite not make it. They make sense to me And I have no doubt, with the knowledge on here that we could potentially hit a decent one at some point.

[nortonscoin200]

One thing that strikes me is how limited the current options are for a trixie - if you want to take out the uncertainty of one of your selections turning up in the "wrong" race.

With that in mind, here goes:

Banker:

Al Boum Photo at 6-1 for the Gold Cup - the reason I make the current two-time champ a banker is because imo there are doubts about most of his rivals for one reason or another. We know this will be the target and he will take some beating.

Vice Captain:

Ferny Hollow at 10-1 for the Supreme. That was a supremely confident ride by Paul Townend to come from last to first in the Bumper. The only times this horse has been beaten is when he made the running. Now they've got the tactics sorted he looks like an absolute machine. I know the record of Bumper winners in the Supreme is not great but the change of gears Ferny Hollow showed up the hill is a priceless asset at the Festival. With finishing pace like that I just don't see any reason why Willie would opt for the Ballymore.

Wildcard:

Lisnagar Oscar at 16-1 in the Stayers. He ran in a couple of chases early last season and didn't like it. He travelled like a very good horse in the Stayers - always in the perfect position and staying on right to the line - and this race will again be his target. I think he has a good chance of winning it again and can't see him being out of the frame.

Rebecca Curtis said after his Festival win: “We’ll stick to hurdles with him.
“He’s always been a backward sort of horse, and you’d like to think he’ll improve again for another summer’s grass.
“There’s a nice programme for him with the races at Newbury, Ascot (Long Walk) and Cheltenham, so that will be the plan.”

Hope I've got this right but I reckon the mechanics of this bet to a 1-point each way stake work out as follows:

.................................................. ...................WIN. EW

Al Boum Photo(6-1)/Ferny Hollow (10-1)double. ... 77.... 6.60.
Al Boum Photo/Lisnagar Oscar (16-1) double. ..... 119 ..... 9.24
Lisnagar Oscar/Ferny Hollow double. ................. 187..... 12.60
Treble .................... ................................... 1309..... 27.72
Totals ...................... .................................. 1692. .... 56.16

Overall return: 1748.16

What I like about this one is that if 2 of the horses place - provided one of them is Lisnagar Oscar it's a winning bet.

If Lisnagar Oscar bombs you get back more than three-quarters of your stake if the other two place.

If they all place you make a 600 per cent profit on the bet.

If Al Boum Photo and Ferny Hollow both win and Lisnagar Oscar bombs you make almost 950 per cent profit.

I know a lot of people on the forum prefer Thyme Hill to Lisnagar Oscar so they could opt for him at a shade shorter odds with most bookies.

The other one I thought about was Saint Roi at 20-1 for the CH. I like him a lot but what put me off is the mediocre record of five-year-old County Hurdle winners at future Festivals. There have been a lot and most of them carried under 11stone in the County like SR - Blowing Wind being the most notable exception winning off 11st 8lbs. I just feel the CH could be a much more competitive heat next season and the value for an each way trixie is not quite there unless you fancy Saint Roi or Sharjah to upset the market leaders. I see these two as having place prospects at best while the 3 I plumped for are all potential winners in my book.

[archie]

I'd take much the same view as Lobos. Disregarding the prices, I'd have Easysland a long way clear of Epatante, Al Boum Photo a tailed off third and Shishkin and Envoi Allen disqulified as novice chasers.

[Spectre]

I missed one of the posts earlier, so for clarity the first trixie is made up of two bankers, and one 12/1+ horse.

The second trixie is 5/1+ stonewall place horses, all with a chance of winning.

The third trixie is 12/1+ and are our best value place horses

I think it's safe to say that Easysland is definitely one leg of the first trixie, and then we are split for second between all of the others bar Shishkin.

I'm sure plenty of us have Envoi Allen in multiples anyway, so I'm persuaded to leave him out, leaving it between Epatante and Al Boum Photo for the second berth. I agree that we go with the safer hurdles option of Epatante. So the first two legs of Trixie 1 are:

Easysland
Epatante

Given we almost all agree that Easysland is the best Festival banker, and assuming he's still 2/1, I'd also recommend keeping him in again for August. We can vote again next month for an alternative to Epatante.

So the next task is to look at the horses 12/1+. The suggestions here will form a pool of horses we select from for the 3rd leg of Yankee 1, and form the 3 selections from Yankee 3. I'd suggest our most popular or solid choice goes goes in Yankee 1, and our second. third, and fourth choices go in Yankee 3. Any rationale for these would be appreciated, but it would be good to find ones that we think can win, or are the obvious alternative to the favourite.

Let's tackle the second trixie after we've put these two to bed.

[Kautostar]

Seeing as we’ve got two jp McManus horses for the first one we should really make it a third, I’d say put Fakir D’Oudaries in

[Spectre]

Seeing as we’ve got two jp McManus horses for the first one we should really make it a third, I’d say put Fakir D’Oudaries in

I like him a lot Kautostar but I still think it's 50/50 he ends up in the Ryaniar.

[Kevloaf]

I like him a lot Kautostar but I still think it's 50/50 he ends up in the Ryaniar.

Same comments apply potentially regarding Defi Du Seuil too...

Probably ends up in the Ryanair

[Spectre]

Yes agreed. Both 50/50 which way they go.