Spectre's Summer Special Each Way Trixie Thread

[Spectre]

After a suggestion on my diary page from notonscoin200 to start this thread, the aim is to put together three each way trixies each month for July, August, September, and October. We'll then have a break through the season, and if someone reminds me nearer the time we'll also have February, and pre-Festival each way trixies as well. So fifteen in total when we get to the Festival.

What we're looking for each month is three categories of horse:

1. Banker
2. 5/1+ that has a good winning chance but is a stonewall place horse.
3. 12/1+ horse that you wouldn't necessary see as a winner but has a very good chance of a place.

Each month I'd suggest we look to do three trixies:

1. 2x Banker + 1x 12/1+
2. 3x 5/1+ horses (horses you see as winners but don't regard as bankers)
3. 3x 12/1+ horses

The aim here is to put together each way trixies where we are most confident of a place return. The win part of the bet is just a bonus. If we lose a horse to injury or for any other reason, we'll still have a double running at the long range antepost price. Also with our combined contacts hopefully it will give us the opportunity to lay off any potential losing bets before the bookies react.

Given this is the first month, and we have pretty much every horse to go at, I'd suggest we all name one horse each and its likely target race for each category, and the ones with the most votes go into this months forum trixies. The only exception to that is I might omit a horse where I think the target race is too much of a risk.

Overall these have been successful bets for me for the last few years, so given our collective brains I reckon we can make this a profitable bet.


July Trixies

Each Way Trixie 1
Easysland 2/1
Epatante 4/1
Thyme Hill 14/1
Best price 195/1 Bet 365

Each Way Trixie 2
Easysland 2/1
Put The Kettle On 16/1
Minella Indo 14/1
Best Price 765/1 Bet 365

Each Way Trixie 3
Tiger Roll 5/1
Abracadabras 7/1
Paisley Park 7/1
Best Price 384/1 Paddy Power


August Trixies

Each Way Trixie 1
Honeysuckle 7/2
Envoi Allen 3/1
Champ 12/1
Best price 233/1 with Skybet

Each Way Trixie 2
Honeysuckle 7/2
Lisnager Oscar 14/1
Melon 20/1
Best price 1281/1 with Skybet

Each Way Trixie 3
Monkfish 10/1
Chacun Pour Soi 5/1
Al Boum Photo 5/1
Best price 395/1 Bet 365

[BookieBasher]

Great idea Spectre and loving reading all your write ups and betting analytics.

1. Easysland (Cross Country)
2. Abacadabras (Champ Hurdle)
3. Queens Brook (Mares Novice)

[Joleg]

Easysland (XC)
ABP (GC)
Fakir D'Oudaries (QM)

[SharpHat]

I don't agree with the easysland hype, not a banker for me. Rewatch the race, Tiger Roll absolutely tanks through the race hard on the bridle, even jumping the last he was ridden as if he was expected to just accelerate away from easysland. Obviously that didn't happen, but to my eye it was the performance of a horse who just hated the ground and couldn't get up the hill in the mud. On anything nearer to good-to-soft next year I'd take tiger roll to reverse the form

[Istabraq]

I didn’t go out for the cross country this year but I’d be shocked if it was deeper ground this year than 2019 when Tiger hacked up.
Tiger didn’t fail because of the ground for me, I was concerned afterwards by Elliott‘S comments that he was delighted with the run which suggests he was never fit enough to win, trained differently he may well get closer next year...

[Faugheen_Machine]

Envoi Allen an absolute must for any banker trixie, imo.

[Quevega]

I don't agree with the easysland hype, not a banker for me. Rewatch the race, Tiger Roll absolutely tanks through the race hard on the bridle, even jumping the last he was ridden as if he was expected to just accelerate away from easysland. Obviously that didn't happen, but to my eye it was the performance of a horse who just hated the ground and couldn't get up the hill in the mud. On anything nearer to good-to-soft next year I'd take tiger roll to reverse the form

He won the two previous cross country's on soft and his first National win was on heavy.

Ground wasn't the reason he got beat.

He may not have been on top form and
he may have been badly positioned/left too much to do/understimated the ability of Easysland/misjudged the pace of the race.

Or a combination of all those.
It wasn't the ground.

[Kevloaf]

I don't agree with the easysland hype, not a banker for me. Rewatch the race, Tiger Roll absolutely tanks through the race hard on the bridle, even jumping the last he was ridden as if he was expected to just accelerate away from easysland. Obviously that didn't happen, but to my eye it was the performance of a horse who just hated the ground and couldn't get up the hill in the mud. On anything nearer to good-to-soft next year I'd take tiger roll to reverse the form

A horse that won a Grand National on heavy? A cross county last year on soft (same as it was this year)

He "tanked through the race", well so did Easysland?

"Expected to accelerate away".... and didn't? Under estimated hopw good Easysland is, makes more sense than him being able to "tank" and be perfectly fine until the end of the race,. for a horse with absolutely proven stamina.





When you look at how far Easysland has absolutely destroyed the rest of the field, at the ABSOLUTE WORST you could say it's a match again next year, and he's 2/1 for that "match"....

So it's pretty blindingly obvious why he's considered "a banker" (although obviously no horse is a banker).



******Just noticed I am very late to the party here

[Quevega]

A horse that won a Grand National on heavy? A cross county last year on soft (same as it was this year)

He "tanked through the race", well so did Easysland?

"Expected to accelerate away".... and didn't?




When you look at how far Easysland has absolutely destroyed the rest of the field, at the ABSOLUTE WORST you could say it's a match, and he's 2/1 for that "match"....

So it's pretty blindingly obvious why he's considered "a banker" (although obviously no horse is a banker).

It would be a good name for a horse.

The Banker.

There's a been a few with (name prefix) the banker. But never just

The Banker.

[Kevloaf]

Envoi Allen an absolute must for any banker trixie, imo.

I wonder where he sits in the target conundrum though. As confident as I am (you/we/people) are?

[Kevloaf]

It would be a good name for a horse.

The Banker.

There's a been a few with (name prefix) the banker. But never just

The Banker.

Haha yeah it'd be great. Surprised it wasn't there when Deal Or No Deal first hit the screens.

[Lobos]

I wonder where he sits in the target conundrum though. As confident as I am (you/we/people) are?

Can't be a banker as target not confirmed.

[Lobos]

Based on confirmed targets which should always be the number 1 factor in this scenario, my selections would be Epatante Churdle, Al Boum Photo GC and Thyme Hill Stayers. Boom.

[Craigy14]

I don't agree with the easysland hype, not a banker for me. Rewatch the race, Tiger Roll absolutely tanks through the race hard on the bridle, even jumping the last he was ridden as if he was expected to just accelerate away from easysland. Obviously that didn't happen, but to my eye it was the performance of a horse who just hated the ground and couldn't get up the hill in the mud. On anything nearer to good-to-soft next year I'd take tiger roll to reverse the form

Off the bend after the second last he’s a good 3/4 lengths behind, possibly gets to a couple of lengths at the last but easysland pulls away for a wide margin win.

Easysland was going a lot easier than tiger, yes tiger tired but can’t make many excuses for him.

Be an interesting rematch.

[Craigy14]

Based on confirmed targets which should always be the number 1 factor in this scenario, my selections would be Epatante Churdle, Al Boum Photo GC and Thyme Hill Stayers. Boom.

Like that one Lobos