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Spectre's Summer Special Each Way Trixie Thread

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  • #61
    Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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    • #62
      I'd say Thyme Hill is more solid to place than Minella Indo... purely because the Gold Cup looks deeper.

      Minella Indo has this list of horses I can't confidently put him ahead of: Champ, Al Boum Photo, Santini, Lostintranslation, Topofthegame and Delta Work.

      That doesn't mean I don't think he could end up winning it, it's just hard to say why he's definitely going to only have two of those ahead of him. How much better connections think Minella Indo is than Monalee might be handy at some point



      Thyme Hill, only has Paisley Park and Lisnager Oscar than I'm worried about. People will extend that to Sire Du Berlais as well. Others aren't certain to run here, like Benie and Ronald Pump....



      I think it's easier to make a case that the Stayers isn't as deep, therefore making Thyme Hill the more solid option.




      I would be perfectly happy with Minella Indo though too, I do like having a Gold Cup horse as a healthy winner to look forward to. There would be no better feeling for me than landing a huge gamble and it being in the big one... it would be the cherry on top.

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      • #63
        Yep, Thyme Hill all day long for me. Overpriced currently in view of the fav having question marks and everything else Infront of him in betting very, very unlikely to run in the race .

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        • #64
          All other things being equal, hurdler rather than chaser every time.

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          • #65
            Originally posted by archie View Post
            All other things being equal, hurdler rather than chaser every time.
            Bang on. One of the most important things to take into account when betting NH racing.

            Comment


            • #66
              I'm happy with that.

              Each Way Trixie 1
              Easysland
              Epatante
              Thyme Hill

              Each Way Trixie 2
              Easysland
              Put The Kettle On
              Minella Indo

              Now we need to find 3 x 5/1+ stonewall place horses that have a good chance of winning for the final trixie.

              Those horses can be from the list above, but it brings in the following fairly long list of horses in to play:

              Goshen
              Abracadabras
              Benie Des Dieux
              Monkfish
              Chacun Pour Soi
              Altior
              Honeysuckle
              Tiger Roll
              Min
              Samcro
              Paisley Park
              Al Boum Photo
              Santini
              Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

              Comment


              • #67
                Originally posted by Spectre View Post
                I'm happy with that.

                Each Way Trixie 1
                Easysland
                Epatante
                Thyme Hill

                Each Way Trixie 2
                Easysland
                Put The Kettle On
                Minella Indo

                Now we need to find 3 x 5/1+ stonewall place horses that have a good chance of winning for the final trixie.

                Those horses can be from the list above, but it brings in the following fairly long list of horses in to play:

                Goshen
                Abracadabras
                Benie Des Dieux
                Monkfish
                Chacun Pour Soi
                Altior
                Honeysuckle
                Tiger Roll
                Min
                Samcro
                Paisley Park
                Al Boum Photo
                Santini
                My thoughts on that list.

                Goshen - 4 year old stepping out into open company, enough question marks?
                Abracadabras - Is the novice form going to be good enough? Slick enough hurdler though.
                Benie Des Dieux - Target?
                Monkfish - Got to take to fences? Size and PTP would suggest no issue, but the RSA is hugely wide open!
                Chacun Pour Soi - Fragile?
                Altior - Target/Age/Fragility?
                Honeysuckle - Target?
                Tiger Roll - Main target the GN?
                Min - Age?
                Samcro - Target? Though one I'd be more keen on than most, Ryanair looks the most obvious. Not much between him and Melon either though.
                Paisley Park - Got to come back from heart issue.
                Al Boum Photo - The one to back
                Santini - Runs against ABP so one or the other as not much between them.

                Comment


                • #68
                  I don't fancy it to win but Abacadabras looks solid for a place.

                  Other than that, I'd go for Melon and Lisnagar Oscar over the others on the list.

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Originally posted by archie View Post
                    I don't fancy it to win but Abacadabras looks solid for a place.

                    Other than that, I'd go for Melon and Lisnagar Oscar over the others on the list.
                    Given what we have in Trixie 1, perhaps Tiger Roll 5/1, Abracadabras 7/1 and Paisley Park 7/1 are the three we should consider as the direct alternatives?

                    The thinking is that we'd have the most likely alternatives for the win in each case, and therefore the most solid for place material. Also each of those three would very possibly go favourite if anything happened to any of the our other selections

                    The question is are all three certain place material, and is there anything else in the price bracket that we view as more solid? I can see a case for putting Al Boum Photo in for example. But if so at the expense of which of the other three?

                    I'd probably say Tiger Roll actually is the weakest link of the three proposed for win purposes as he's against the most solid favourite in Easysland and also the shortest price. But on the other hand he's probably the most solid for place purposes? A tricky one.

                    What's everyone's thoughts on it, given we have the opportunity to play off against the other two trixies, and help the three work together for the best coverage?

                    Also consider we can perhaps take more of a flyer with some of the legs in next month's trixies, and these three should be as tight as we can get them for combined win/place purposes, and also act as cover for other legs we already have.
                    Last edited by Spectre; 10 July 2020, 02:27 PM.
                    Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Okay our final trixies for July are as follows:

                      Each Way Trixie 1 - Bet365
                      Easysland 2/1
                      Epatante 4/1
                      Thyme Hill 14/1

                      Each Way Trixie 2 Bet 365
                      Easysland 2/1
                      Put The Kettle On 16/1
                      Minella Indo 14/1

                      Each Way Trixie 3 Paddy Power
                      Tiger Roll 5/1
                      Abracadabras 7/1
                      Paisley Park 7/1

                      The theory behind each of them is that all of the horses are hard to see out of the places based on what we know at the moment. The first two trixies have what we regard as out best bankers involved to give us the best chance of picking up the win parts of the bets. The third trixie has two horse that are suggested as the best alternatives to our bankers if they fail to perform or don't get there. The third is a favourite in its own right, and an alternative to one of our each way selections in another trixie.

                      In all we have 9 selections but from only 5 races. Looking at all of the selections I'd suggest we have a very good chance of picking up the place part in all three trixies assuming the selections get there.

                      As always I suggest backing the doubles and trebles as separate bets as cover for a leg going down, and with either 365 or Paddy Power where cash out is an option, but understand that not everyone has access to accounts with them.
                      Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Time to start sorting this for August.

                        I think with the news that Honeysuckle stays over hurdles, we should include her in the first each way trixie that includes two bankers and one horse 12/1 or bigger, unless anyone disagrees?

                        Given our selections for July it feels like a choice between Envoi Allen (Marsh), and Shishkin for the second berth. I’d go with the former, but I’m happy to go with the majority. Or there maybe some other suggestions? For example include Easysland again.

                        We also need to think about our best value each way horses, so nominations please. We used Thyme Hill, Put the Kettle On, and Minella Indo last month so let’s exclude them. We also need to be okay with targets I think. There are a couple I really like in Fakir for the Ryanair and Galvin for the NH Chase, but wouldn’t nominate Them because of sufficient doubt about where they’ll end up.

                        My Initial nomination would be Aramon however, for all the reasons I’ve posted in other threads. We need three in total across the first two trixies. Can I have your thoughts over the next couple of days guys.
                        Last edited by Spectre; 10 August 2020, 05:32 PM.
                        Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Elimay - Mares Chase
                          A Plus Tard - Ryanair
                          Champ - Gold Cup
                          "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

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                          • #73
                            Thanks Saxon. All good shouts that fit the bill as feasible winners.

                            Any more suggestions guys for each way horses that Are 12/1+ that are win contenders.
                            Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Lisnagar Oscar - Stayers
                              Shattered Love - Mares Chase
                              Elixir D'ainay - Arkle
                              Saint Roi - Champ Hurdle

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                              • #75
                                Fury Road in the RSA?

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