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Pretty much any double involving Ferny Hollow, Ballyadam, Abacadabras, Monkfish, Envoi Allen, Shiskin
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Shiskin - Arkle
Envoi Allen - Marsh
Shiskin & Envoi Allen double
Envoi Allen & Shiskin doubleComment
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Love the above write up ‘Middle of March’. Perfect!Comment
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1. Saldier - CH (68pts)
2. Aione - NHC (55pts)
3. The Big Getaway - RSA (40.5pts)
4. Princess Zoe - Mares' Novices (34pts)
and a bunch of other 33s
all small stakes or free bet work atm
Anyone got any opinions on Princess Zoe after her two wins at Galway?Comment
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Princess Zoe’s price keeps on shortening day by day and am very happy to have her onside from last week at 66/1. Until we see her over a hurdle it may just be a pipe dream or she could be a short fav come next March. Have only used free bets on her so yes I’m hoping for a hurdling campaign but won’t hurt me if she stays on the flatOriginally posted by Might_Bite View PostComment
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Yes I feel its very questionable as to whether I got value at 33s, but the market was moving pretty quick on her. Apparently the trainer or owner has come out and said something suggesting he may be thinking of the festival... But definitely more towards the 'pipe dream' end of the spectrum at the moment i would say.Comment
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That's a fair assessment, definitely towards the pipe dream end of the spectrum.Originally posted by Might_Bite View Post
I think the market move is based on people over reacting to an owner backing his own horse. I imagine every relative small scale owner probably looks favourably on their own horses and back them accordingly... we just don't hear about it. Imagine if every owner did this, what would our ante post books look like?
She's not jumped a hurdle yet, not trained by Willie Mullins, and is a german bred, flat handicapper so I don't think it's a good bet at 66/1 - it's just speculative and not that dangerous given the likely stakes so 'why not' for some people. Does a horse like this win more often than 1 in 66 times? Absolutely not
Maybe you'll get lucky and they move her to her brothers yard, but unless that happens there is absolutely no chance she goes off favourite for the Mares Novice Hurdle.
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Princess Zoe is a 5yo very progressive Mare, and going to be rated 100-ish on the flat after her streak of wins.
Galway showed adaptability over 12F and 2M1F.
On form (flat or bumper) she would be as good a mare, if not better, than anything in the current market for the Mares Novice Hurdle.
One win over hurdles, jumping well, and she will be 10/1 or less for the Mares Novice Hurdle.
If she were trained by Willie Mullins and not Tony, she would be fav already.
Of the 5 winners of the race WPM bought them all from France, after they ran over there.
3 were jumps bred and 2 were flat bred.
Princess Zoe is flat bred and therefore more similar in profile to Limini and Concertista in that they both had six flat races in France before moving to Ireland.
Princess Zoe had 15 flat runs at 3 and 4yo, in Germany winning two and placing in eight more, before Tony Mullins was told he needed to go and see her.Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 4 August 2020, 07:52 AM."Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".Comment
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Update on mine....
PTKO Champion Chase/TWAR
Saint Roi Champion Hurdle
Sire De Berlais Stayers
PTKO & The Big Getaway to finish top 4 any race.Comment
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If she's less than 10/1 after a maiden hurdle then I'll be astounded and would think she's the worst priced ante post horse in any Cheltenham list.Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post
The fact it was Tony Mullins told to go and see her doesn't exactly bowl me over either, I assume proper trainers couldn't be bothered
Willie bought them all from France, and Limini and Concertista ran on the Flat in France..... how does that mean buying a horse from Germany is a positive? Doesn't it highlight even more that IF Princess Zoe was as good as is being made out, connections of powerful owners would have had a look at her?
The owner will probably ensure she runs regardless but she's more likely to be an outsider on the day than anywhere near the head of the market.
Also, I'm surprised you've used the "if she was trained by Willie she'd be favourite" line..... The point of that statement is that she ISN'T and WOULDN'T be trained by Willie, if he did have her, she'd have a better chance of winning as he's a far, far superior trainer. Lightyears ahead of his brother.
I'm not trying to knock anyones 66/1 shot, I encourage people to make cases.... I just hate that this 'case' seems to have snowballed from a Trainer saying he fancies his own horse for March next year.... that is not a long-term successful strategy and I think deep down everyhbody knows it.Last edited by Kevloaf; 4 August 2020, 12:03 PM.Comment
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I hear what you are saying Kev, but I am not basing anything on the owner fancying his horse.Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostIf she's less than 10/1 after a maiden hurdle then I'll be astounded and would think she's the worst priced ante post horse in any Cheltenham list.
The fact it was Tony Mullins told to go and see her doesn't exactly bowl me over either, I assume proper trainers couldn't be bothered
Willie bought them all from France, and Limini and Concertista ran on the Flat in France..... how does that mean buying a horse from Germany is a positive? Doesn't it highlight even more that IF Princess Zoe was as good as is being made out, connections of powerful owners would have had a look at her?
The owner will probably ensure she runs regardless but she's more likely to be an outsider on the day than anywhere near the head of the market.
Also, I'm surprised you've used the "if she was trained by Willie she'd be favourite" line..... The point of that statement is that she ISN'T and WOULDN'T be trained by Willie, if he did have her, she'd have a better chance of winning as he's a far, far superior trainer. Lightyears ahead of his brother.
I'm not trying to knock anyones 66/1 shot, I encourage people to make cases.... I just hate that this 'case' seems to have snowballed from a Trainer saying he fancies his own horse for March next year.... that is not a long-term successful strategy and I think deep down everyhbody knows it.
I am highlighting the form of the horse (you know I am mostly about form) on the flat since she has been trained in Ireland.
Today her flat official rating went up from 83, to 101.
On form, at this moment, there probably isnt another mare in the Mares Novice Hurdle that is rated as highly as 101 on the flat, or has a high enough bumper rate to believe that they would be able to match it.
From the Oddschecker list at the top of the market, there is:
Princess Zoe (Flat OR 101, RPR 99)
Gypsy Island (Bumper RPR 129, Hurdle RPR 111)
Queens Brook (Bumper RPR 127)
Glancing Queen (Flat OR 60 RPR 58, Bumper RPR 121)
Shewheresitwell (Bumper RPR 101)
Genola (Bumper RPR 109)
Brandy Love (PTP RPR 90)
My Whirlwind (PTP RPR 86)
Gauloise (Bumper win no rating yet)
Bigbadandbeautiful (Flat OR 81, RPR 75, Bumper 124)
My post was purely the merits of form on the racecourse as seen so far.
I know WPM is the pre-eminent trainer of Mares Novices, and I probably will end up backing one or two of his along the way this coming season, when we hear more about them and as we see them in action - but, purely based on form as of today, IMHO, Princess Zoe is top of the shop of those quoted in the Mares Novice Hurdle market at the moment.
A big well done to Tony Mullins, to train her to peak and win twice at Galway, whatever happens with plans for his mare in the future."Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".Comment
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Being the best mare now, before any of them have actually jumped a hurdle, is not that important is the crux of what I'm saying.
Highest rated horses going into new spheres would never be a negative (and can be a positive) but it often doesn't work out as black and white as that from flat to hurdles, as you well know as a student of the game.
The Mares Novice Hurdle market is not one that's likely to be formed early - hwo it looks now won't be anywhere near how it ends up. It would be folly to suggest a horse can't win unless it's trained by Willie Mullins too, however it's an easy way to narrow the field.
I agree Tony Mullins has done very well with her, to win twice at Galway is an amazing achievement. I would be of the opinion that'll end up being about the sum of her achievements though.
If I'm wrong, it'll be all the sweeter for the numerous fans she has already
I won't rub it in if I'm right either, as my arguement is 1/66 she won't win it and that isn't exactly bold.Comment
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All good.Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostBeing the best mare now, before any of them have actually jumped a hurdle, is not that important is the crux of what I'm saying.
Highest rated horses going into new spheres would never be a negative (and can be a positive) but it often doesn't work out as black and white as that from flat to hurdles, as you well know as a student of the game.
The Mares Novice Hurdle market is not one that's likely to be formed early - hwo it looks now won't be anywhere near how it ends up. It would be folly to suggest a horse can't win unless it's trained by Willie Mullins too, however it's an easy way to narrow the field.
I agree Tony Mullins has done very well with her, to win twice at Galway is an amazing achievement. I would be of the opinion that'll end up being about the sum of her achievements though.
If I'm wrong, it'll be all the sweeter for the numerous fans she has already
I won't rub it in if I'm right either, as my arguement is 1/66 she won't win it and that isn't exactly bold.
My mention of her price if trained by WPM was based on her being an experienced mare, with the ability in only two weeks to win three handicaps at the Curragh and Galway in fields of 14, 15 and 20, and gain her official flat rating of 101.
If the owner decided tonight, that she is too good to leave with TM and transferred her to WPM, I think overnight she would be close to fav for the Mares Novice Hurdle.
I do agree that the market currently maybe doesn't even have the winner in it (or even the first 3), and its a crystal ball type of race to be looking at.
"Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".Comment
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