Antepost Market for 2020 Flat Racing Season

[kinloch brae]

Looks as if the rain has scuppered Love's chances. There was always a fair chance that might happen. Perhaps we are in for a shock as the 2020 version of Enable is no certainty.

Raabihah even less chance of acting on the ground than Love and not surprised she is drifting. She should have been 25/1 after the Vermeille. If you are on those two (and nothing else) I would be looking to salvage something.

[jack1092]

Raabihah even less chance of acting on the ground than Love and not surprised she is drifting. She should have been 25/1 after the Vermeille. If you are on those two (and nothing else) I would be looking to salvage something.

Why's that?

[Kevloaf]

Raabihah even less chance of acting on the ground than Love and not surprised she is drifting. She should have been 25/1 after the Vermeille. If you are on those two (and nothing else) I would be looking to salvage something.

You would really try and 'salvage' something from a 20/1 bet on Love as she's now drifted to 11/4?


That's a bit extreme isn't it? Ground isn't in her favour, but it doesn't suit plenty of them either.

Stradivarius is 3rd favourite, so if the market has it right and he's genuinly the 3rd most likely winner, then I'll be perfectly happy with Love, and even Raabihah at 33/1 if that's the opposition.

[Quevega]

You would really try and 'salvage' something from a 20/1 bet on Love as she's now drifted to 11/4?


That's a bit extreme isn't it? Ground isn't in her favour, but it doesn't suit plenty of them either.

Stradivarius is 3rd favourite, so if the market has it right and he's genuinly the 3rd most likely winner, then I'll be perfectly happy with Love, and even Raabihah at 33/1 if that's the opposition.

Agreed.
Ground bollocks as usual.
It's not like one of the opposition is a tractor is it ?

[Saxon Warrior]

Regarding the Arc, none of this lot go in the sloppy stuff better than they run on better ground.
I’m not sure there is a soft ground angle for any of them, in the race.

—————-

I looked through all of the entries this afternoon, couldn’t find another angle, so decided to leave it, and invest further into SANTA BARBARA to win the 1000 Guineas, and to win the Oaks, before the prices collapse further.

Her debut was pretty special, the best debut on RPR’s for any filly less than 50/1 in the betting for both the 1000 Guineas and the Oaks.

I’m thinking that she will be the one to put it up to Shale and Pretty Gorgeous in the 1000 Guineas, and I think Santa Barbara is an even better selection for The Oaks.

I need to see if I can find a special out there for her to win both.

[kinloch brae]

Agreed.
Ground bollocks as usual.
It's not like one of the opposition is a tractor is it ?

Come Sunday it will interesting to see who is actually talking bollocks. I have tried to offer a little bit of advice but if nobody wants to listen that's up to to them.

[kinloch brae]

Why's that?

I am assuming you think it will okay on the ground rather than have an equal problem to Love. The horse's action, the fact that it has been kept away from soft ground, and the pedigree on both sides.

[kinloch brae]

You would really try and 'salvage' something from a 20/1 bet on Love as she's now drifted to 11/4?


That's a bit extreme isn't it? Ground isn't in her favour, but it doesn't suit plenty of them either.

Stradivarius is 3rd favourite, so if the market has it right and he's genuinly the 3rd most likely winner, then I'll be perfectly happy with Love, and even Raabihah at 33/1 if that's the opposition.

I am not on Love at anything like that price but if I had 200/1 I would still be looking around for an alternative. The hope is that she is a much stronger filly than last year and will be able to cope with a softer surface that much better. There are very few horses who are equally exceptional on quick and slow ground and she also needs a career best to win.

[jack1092]

I am assuming you think it will okay on the ground rather than have an equal problem to Love. The horse's action, the fact that it has been kept away from soft ground, and the pedigree on both sides.

No i was just wondering why she had even less of a chance of going on it.. that's all.

[Quevega]

Come Sunday it will interesting to see who is actually talking bollocks. I have tried to offer a little bit of advice but if nobody wants to listen that's up to to them.

It is mate, And you may be proved correct. Although with racing it's rarely ever clear cut, why individual horses get beat.
I've put up numerous examples of horses that have put up career best runs after the trainer had spent years telling us they only go on certain ground. It's true that some actions are more suited, but it's also true that many adapt.
It's just a natural thing to do to lift your knees more when running on softer/stickier ground.

I appreciate your 'advice' (I'd call it opinion) and am happy to ignore some of it, and take some on board.
Although you can sometimes be like an Oncologist telling a patient they've got cancer.
And consoling them with the words "we're all going to die mate"

[Morley Street]

Regarding the Arc, none of this lot go in the sloppy stuff better than they run on better ground.
I’m not sure there is a soft ground angle for any of them, in the race.

—————-

I looked through all of the entries this afternoon, couldn’t find another angle, so decided to leave it, and invest further into SANTA BARBARA to win the 1000 Guineas, and to win the Oaks, before the prices collapse further.

Her debut was pretty special, the best debut on RPR’s for any filly less than 50/1 in the betting for both the 1000 Guineas and the Oaks.

I’m thinking that she will be the one to put it up to Shale and Pretty Gorgeous in the 1000 Guineas, and I think Santa Barbara is an even better selection for The Oaks.

I need to see if I can find a special out there for her to win both.

I was equally taken with Santa Barbara Saxon - 66s for the double with 365 seems fair

Also agree with the lack of the soft ground angle in the Arc... interesting debate on here as to whether Love will get away with it or not... FWIW, I’m willing to give her the benefit particularly at the price now

[Kevloaf]

I am not on Love at anything like that price but if I had 200/1 I would still be looking around for an alternative. The hope is that she is a much stronger filly than last year and will be able to cope with a softer surface that much better. There are very few horses who are equally exceptional on quick and slow ground and she also needs a career best to win.

If you had a horse at 200/1 that was 11/4, you'd be looking elsewhere?

It sounds like you don't think 200/1 would be value about her, so if I was you, my advice would be lay her - as that must be the best lay you've ever seen at 4/11 (or whatever it is on the exchanges right now).




At 200/1, I'd probably make a book on the race - however at 20/1 I'll just take my chance.

Thanks for the advice though, I just don't agree with how you perceive value in this case.

[jack1092]

I was equally taken with Santa Barbara Saxon - 66s for the double with 365 seems fair

Also agree with the lack of the soft ground angle in the Arc... interesting debate on here as to whether Love will get away with it or not... FWIW, I’m willing to give her the benefit particularly at the price now

Seamie coming out and saying she could be the best in the family when that family includes Iridessa is promising enough!

[Saxon Warrior]

I was equally taken with Santa Barbara Saxon - 66s for the double with 365 seems fair

Also agree with the lack of the soft ground angle in the Arc... interesting debate on here as to whether Love will get away with it or not... FWIW, I’m willing to give her the benefit particularly at the price now

Yes, I got that added last night, plus Shale 33/1.

The one in the Arc that maybe could slog through heavy (if its ends up heavy) could be Sovereign, he ran on heavy once and sluiced in, when winning his 2yo maiden by 14 lengths.
Scant form I know (RPR 99, but was 30lbs better than his first 2 runs).
He still has an entry in the Cadan over 2M4F though, so final decs will confirm if he even comes to the Arc.

[Saxon Warrior]

Seamie coming out and saying she could be the best in the family when that family includes Iridessa is promising enough!

Yes, he tends to reveal absolutely nothing, or has very guarded speech, but he was hyping Santa Barbara first time out win, like nothing Ive seen him do before.

I have 33s and 25s for the 1000 Guineas and 25s twice for the Oaks now, and very happy with that.

One filly each for the OBriens, in the 1000 completes the set.

Shale 33/1 - DOB
Pretty Gorgeous 66/1 - JOB
Santa Barbara 33/1 - AOB

They could all come out one more time this autumn, and bomb out of course.