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I thought Min was done for, when I saw Saint Calvados come to challenge, Townend saying not today
Think it was just my pocket talking from previous years when he got beat in Supreme and his huge flop in last years Champion Chase. We all are guilty of it now and again . He won't win anything next year though.......
Think it was just my pocket talking from previous years when he got beat in Supreme and his huge flop in last years Champion Chase. We all are guilty of it now and again . He won't win anything next year though.......
I actually agree with that (with regards to the festival), and I've backed him EVERY season since his debut, costly, although this year made up for it! I think it will be a step too far for an ageing Min myself. Get him on a flat track and it will be a different story though.
I feel like I might break the word count on this section alone as I’ve been mulling this for a few weeks now.
Options:
A. Stay the same as 2020.
B. Make more ‘books’ - safer
C. Go Big Or Go Home – on a few
D. More focus on ‘the week’
A. Stay the same as 2020.
I better delve into a bit more detail about the breakdown of this years approach for anyone that doesn’t know/needs refreshing.
Very briefly, in some races I try to beat the Starting Price for every horse, minimise non-runners and ‘go green’ so it doesn’t matter who wins. The QMCC was a great example of that this year, whereby I decided to “go-green” and just enjoy it. The defection of CPS and Altior was disappointing as a spectacle but I did take some comfort in knowing that I’d made a nice tidy profit no matter who won. I know for a fact if I hadn’t gone green I’d have just left Defi Du Seuil to waltz home and it’d have been a bit of a disaster.
In other races I take a strong opinion and only back horses that I believe are true value against them. The cross country is the best example of that from this year. I strongly fancied Tiger Roll to win it. So much so that I placed a large single on him on the day (had nothing ante post). The saving grace was that I’d backed the only horse I considered to be ‘value’ against him which was Easysland at 20/1 and again at 7/1. (Not for great amounts, but enough to make a profit) for essentially being wrong. I wouldn’t have wanted to make a book in the race as I genuinely only thought a handful of horses had a chance of winning it.
Overall, it’s a mix and match approach, that I feel is flexible and quite ‘safe’. It’s very hard for me to actually lose a substantial amount – I’d need to be crippled by non runners, or have an exceptional amount of upsets, last fence falls or other unaccounted for acts to have a really bad week. What that does mean though is that it also LIMITS the amount I can possibly win. There was pretty much no chance, despite me having 25/28 winners of me winning lofty 6 figure sums.
B. Make more ‘books’
I’m pretty resigned to the fact I am NOT going to do this for next season. It would be safer in one respect because of the aforementioned apprehension I have around how effectively I’ll be able to work out this years form with less to go on from last season and the changes to the coming seasons schedule, however, making a book is the ‘least fun’ part. It’s satisfying when it pays off, and I have a lot of examples to fall back on, but to do it for more races than I already do would change the general feel of the festival from being a challenge to more of a transaction. I’ve got no doubts I’d turn a steady profit doing it, especially whilst I can still cash out, but I want to kick on, rather than consolidate and there will always be ‘books’ to fall back on.
C. Go Big Or Go Home
What I meant by that, is to have some ‘key horses’ that are pretty much make or break my week. As an example I’d want a year that was 10 times more profitable and if that doesn’t happen/click, the worst case scenario to “break even” through the week. Sounds easy on paper haha. I don’t think I can do that at the moment bar having like, “the perfect” week where absolutely everything hit and realistically, that’s 28/28 and every winner being the “best winner”… that’ll never happen. So this is riskier but much more rewarding if I can zone in and get “three to click”. Linked with lots of others, but “3 is the magic number”?
I highlighted on the forum not long after this years festival had finished on the parallels I personally can see between Altior and Yorkhill going novice chasing to Shishkin and Envoi Allen. With hindsight, I wish I’d won even more from the Altior/Yorkhill double. I was so keen on for so long. It was my best ever win at the time and naturally I want to emulate and better it.
All very well and good saying that though, there is so much that can go wrong and this is what’s putting me off. The year Faugheen got injured, my method was pretty much “go big or go home” around him and multiples including him. I think I’ve also done similar around Apple’s Jade when she didn’t win the Mares too. I haven’t really done it since then but just as an example, this year I had my “key horses” as Benie Des Dieux, Tiger Roll and Paisley Park – and not even 1 of them landed and if I’d adopted that strategy last year for this festival I’d have been ‘going home’.
So the questions are, who are the horses and is this risk worth the reward.
Will have to have a lot more chat around this in particular so I’ll see what people think… comments very much welcomed (bold to assume anyone has read this far, well done if you have)
D. Focus more on the week/or start after NRNB
Probably the most sensible option overall. Given the climate at the moment. Some of the profitable punters on here like Quevega and Scooby (and where is jono?!) haven’t really got going yet, others are deeper now than they usually would be. I’ve just checked and at this date last year I’d had 35 bets on Cheltenham 2020. As of right now, I’ve had 35 bets on Cheltenham 2021 – so I’m exactly where I ‘usually’ am. No right or wrong with that, but I am starting to lean towards a less speculative and more opinionated approach and that would mean starting slower (or not ramping up as quickly)
I don’t limit myself or really track how many bets I’ve placed, only in hindsight, but putting less emphasis on picking winners before October rolls around doesn’t seem like it can be a bad idea at all. The way the Dublin Racing Festival has shaped the calendar is on my mind too. I don’t really feel like Christmas is particularly relevant anymore either. You’ll always have exceptions but I think focussing week to week and treating Christmas as it’s own entity, then really ramping up for Cheltenham around the DRF and especially when NRNB come in could end up being ‘easier, safer and more lucrative’.
Do the ‘stats’ back that up….
Excluding non runner returns / cash out returns:
2019 for 2020 I placed 149 bets, 122 bets of them had no return. So only 27 winning bets from 149 (18%)
419 bets in 2020 for 2020, with 106 winners (25%)
Based on the small sample size, I won less than 1 in 5 bets I placed before the turn of the year, improving to a win 1 out of every 4 bets after it.
Food for thought? Probably not enough in it…. But it’s definitely an option.
Interested to know what people think I should do though…..
Right, I'm coming back to this a few months on.
I'm now thinking about number 3 a lot more than ever before... and that is partly down to roll ups. At the moment I've staked 7.7 pts on Envoi Allen in doubles and currently if he wins it's worth 104 pts (that works out at an average of just over 12/1). I have been fortunate that I haven't lost a double I've attempted with EA yet. It will inevitably happen though as I'm now considering really ramping this up, until I get to a stake whereby I have a "significant return" in terms of my overall week. If I can keep the average odds over 10/1, I feel that is worth the risk of him being a non-runner.
The goal would be, to be "up for the week" no matter what else happens, IF Envoi Allen wins the Marsh Novice's Chase.
Relying on that happening with multiples 'during' the week (so ante post with whoever I've got him with) can't be relied on but may well make or break this approach, but the fundamental part is going to be stacking up roll ups at an average of 10/1.
When I read this first time around, I thought you were saying that you wanted to be in a position whereby on Monday 15 March you need Envoi Allen alone to win you 568pts (based on last years staking). Even assuming every roll up you did was successful, you'd still need 10% of your Cheltenham bank on him. When you couple this with the fact that his odds are highly likely to shorten considerably when he hoses up on each start prior to the festival, achieving a roll up with a value of 10/1 is going to involve more selections, or larger prices and perhaps greater risk. Whilst I love Envoi Allen as a horse, and think he's potentially a bit special, I personally wouldn't be prepared to put 10-20% of my Cheltenham bank on him - especially if I had shown in previous years, that I can use my Cheltenham bank generate consistent profits.
However, i now understand that your aim is to use multiples in the week of the festival to achieve the desired outcome and everything I've said above is entirely redundant. Brilliant.
Personally, I tend to target horses to achieve a precise certain return, and don't really mind how I get there. For example, this year, Envoi Allen, Shishkin and Epatante are horses I want 250pt returns from, Honeysuckle will be a 200pt horse and Easywork (RSA) in the 150pt category. Whilst i know full well that not all of these will win, I like to try and establish a position in their respective races where if they do, i generate sizeable profits, and if they don't, I have a decent enough underlying book in the race to break even. I'm currently in a cracking position in the Arkle and Champion Hurdle, which will get even better if Love wins the Arc, but am not satisfied with my position in the Marsh. Should anything happen to Envoi Allen, even at this early stage, I cannot see myself getting out of trouble on that race. The Mares Hurdle is slighlty different in that i won't even be attempting to cover anything besides Honeysuckle. The current 7/2 is impossibly generous and she will be featuring in a lot of my festival only multiples as long as that price holds up.
When I read this first time around, I thought you were saying that you wanted to be in a position whereby on Monday 15 March you need Envoi Allen alone to win you 568pts (based on last years staking). Even assuming every roll up you did was successful, you'd still need 10% of your Cheltenham bank on him. When you couple this with the fact that his odds are highly likely to shorten considerably when he hoses up on each start prior to the festival, achieving a roll up with a value of 10/1 is going to involve more selections, or larger prices and perhaps greater risk. Whilst I love Envoi Allen as a horse, and think he's potentially a bit special, I personally wouldn't be prepared to put 10-20% of my Cheltenham bank on him - especially if I had shown in previous years, that I can use my Cheltenham bank generate consistent profits.
However, i now understand that your aim is to use multiples in the week of the festival to achieve the desired outcome and everything I've said above is entirely redundant. Brilliant.
Personally, I tend to target horses to achieve a precise certain return, and don't really mind how I get there. For example, this year, Envoi Allen, Shishkin and Epatante are horses I want 250pt returns from, Honeysuckle will be a 200pt horse and Easywork (RSA) in the 150pt category. Whilst i know full well that not all of these will win, I like to try and establish a position in their respective races where if they do, i generate sizeable profits, and if they don't, I have a decent enough underlying book in the race to break even. I'm currently in a cracking position in the Arkle and Champion Hurdle, which will get even better if Love wins the Arc, but am not satisfied with my position in the Marsh. Should anything happen to Envoi Allen, even at this early stage, I cannot see myself getting out of trouble on that race. The Mares Hurdle is slighlty different in that i won't even be attempting to cover anything besides Honeysuckle. The current 7/2 is impossibly generous and she will be featuring in a lot of my festival only multiples as long as that price holds up.
I think Honeysuckle is a much better bet-builder than Envoi Allen. There is an outside chance of a Champion Hurdle switch if she impressed in her early & mid-season starts but given her price in that race its easy to have a cover stake.
I can understand wanting four or five to build from too, rather than one. Injury is always the biggest worry for any of these high class horses.
Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 7 August 2020, 12:38 PM.
When I read this first time around, I thought you were saying that you wanted to be in a position whereby on Monday 15 March you need Envoi Allen alone to win you 568pts (based on last years staking). Even assuming every roll up you did was successful, you'd still need 10% of your Cheltenham bank on him. When you couple this with the fact that his odds are highly likely to shorten considerably when he hoses up on each start prior to the festival, achieving a roll up with a value of 10/1 is going to involve more selections, or larger prices and perhaps greater risk. Whilst I love Envoi Allen as a horse, and think he's potentially a bit special, I personally wouldn't be prepared to put 10-20% of my Cheltenham bank on him - especially if I had shown in previous years, that I can use my Cheltenham bank generate consistent profits.
However, i now understand that your aim is to use multiples in the week of the festival to achieve the desired outcome and everything I've said above is entirely redundant. Brilliant.
Personally, I tend to target horses to achieve a precise certain return, and don't really mind how I get there. For example, this year, Envoi Allen, Shishkin and Epatante are horses I want 250pt returns from, Honeysuckle will be a 200pt horse and Easywork (RSA) in the 150pt category. Whilst i know full well that not all of these will win, I like to try and establish a position in their respective races where if they do, i generate sizeable profits, and if they don't, I have a decent enough underlying book in the race to break even. I'm currently in a cracking position in the Arkle and Champion Hurdle, which will get even better if Love wins the Arc, but am not satisfied with my position in the Marsh. Should anything happen to Envoi Allen, even at this early stage, I cannot see myself getting out of trouble on that race. The Mares Hurdle is slighlty different in that i won't even be attempting to cover anything besides Honeysuckle. The current 7/2 is impossibly generous and she will be featuring in a lot of my festival only multiples as long as that price holds up.
Sorry for the delay.
I do like that approach of yours, I'm certainly more conscious of that approach this time around. I won't do it for every race but will for 'key' horses.
I feel like over the past few years, horses I've fancied haven't been 'weighted' correctly in my own book without relying on a double (during the week). I'm not at my spreadsheet, but I'd say that Min was a horse I was quite strong on all year, fairly bullish about all year and I probably didn't win as much on "being right" as I did from 'getting lucky' on some other horses that week. I won more from Simply The Betts for example... and I definitely fancied Min more (although obviously liked STB enough to have him backed)....
I think Honeysuckle is a much better bet-builder than Envoi Allen. There is an outside chance of a Champion Hurdle switch if she impressed in her early & mid-season starts but given her price in that race its easy to have a cover stake.
I can understand wanting four or five to build from too, rather than one. Injury is always the biggest worry for any of these high class horses.
The reason Envoi Allen could be 'the one' for me is because he is head and shoulders above his peers in my opinion and it'll take a large shift in his regression coupled with another horses improvement for him not to be 'the one to beat'.
That doesn't mean I would take anything away from Honeysuckle, she is in a quite clear 'match' and although I'd side with her over BDD, being closed to her reversing that form is a bridge too far.
Easysland is another I would want to be 'key' if I do go for more than one....
We only have to go back to last year, the majority had Envoi Allen 4th in their list of "bankers", behind the 3 other bankers that I've forgotten, Tiger Roll was one... Benie Des Dieux the other? - Anyway, he was the only one to actually win.
I don't want a book crippled by short prices losing..... so mitigating the risk to just being 1, becomes a 50/50...
I do like that approach of yours, I'm certainly more conscious of that approach this time around. I won't do it for every race but will for 'key' horses.
I feel like over the past few years, horses I've fancied haven't been 'weighted' correctly in my own book without relying on a double (during the week). I'm not at my spreadsheet, but I'd say that Min was a horse I was quite strong on all year, fairly bullish about all year and I probably didn't win as much on "being right" as I did from 'getting lucky' on some other horses that week. I won more from Simply The Betts for example... and I definitely fancied Min more (although obviously liked STB enough to have him backed)....
The reason Envoi Allen could be 'the one' for me is because he is head and shoulders above his peers in my opinion and it'll take a large shift in his regression coupled with another horses improvement for him not to be 'the one to beat'.
That doesn't mean I would take anything away from Honeysuckle, she is in a quite clear 'match' and although I'd side with her over BDD, being closed to her reversing that form is a bridge too far.
Easysland is another I would want to be 'key' if I do go for more than one....
We only have to go back to last year, the majority had Envoi Allen 4th in their list of "bankers", behind the 3 other bankers that I've forgotten, Tiger Roll was one... Benie Des Dieux the other? - Anyway, he was the only one to actually win.
I don't want a book crippled by short prices losing..... so mitigating the risk to just being 1, becomes a 50/50...
I do like that approach of yours, I'm certainly more conscious of that approach this time around. I won't do it for every race but will for 'key' horses.
I feel like over the past few years, horses I've fancied haven't been 'weighted' correctly in my own book without relying on a double (during the week). I'm not at my spreadsheet, but I'd say that Min was a horse I was quite strong on all year, fairly bullish about all year and I probably didn't win as much on "being right" as I did from 'getting lucky' on some other horses that week. I won more from Simply The Betts for example... and I definitely fancied Min more (although obviously liked STB enough to have him backed)....
The reason Envoi Allen could be 'the one' for me is because he is head and shoulders above his peers in my opinion and it'll take a large shift in his regression coupled with another horses improvement for him not to be 'the one to beat'.
That doesn't mean I would take anything away from Honeysuckle, she is in a quite clear 'match' and although I'd side with her over BDD, being closed to her reversing that form is a bridge too far.
Easysland is another I would want to be 'key' if I do go for more than one....
We only have to go back to last year, the majority had Envoi Allen 4th in their list of "bankers", behind the 3 other bankers that I've forgotten, Tiger Roll was one... Benie Des Dieux the other? - Anyway, he was the only one to actually win.
I don't want a book crippled by short prices losing..... so mitigating the risk to just being 1, becomes a 50/50...
6 horses went off at odds on at this year’s festival.
Envoi Allen of those the only one that won.
Losers - Defi du Seuil
Tiger Roll
Paisley Park
Carefully Selected
Benie Des Dieux
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