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Mares Hurdle 2021

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Quevega View Post
    I can see Lobos's thinking (not the brood mare bit so much, just yet) that neither may turn up here next season.
    Although it's just as likely that they both do.
    Should neither line up for whatever reason I think the best value bet right now is the triumph winner.

    I cannot see any other race for her, and wouldn't expect her to go chasing at age 5.

    Likely to get a light campaign till March and/or get beat if upped in class, but looks a Cheltenham type and one that will improve as the season progresses. Only had the two hurdle starts also, and whilst she was going to be well beaten by a much more experienced horse, she was left with shit loads to do and may also have been closer at the finish than the pictures would suggest.

    Definitely looked like she would have been closer had she been ridden more prominently or asked for an effort a bit earlier,
    and a Mute Point - although riderless, she beat Goshen to the line.

    The fact Goshen slowed so much after losing his rider is a tenuous/fragile clue as to what he may have had left. We have seen horses going well like that before, only for them to stop to nothing.

    Personally don't think this was likely on this occasion however, but we cannot be sure.
    Very good shout. I was thinking of backing BA TWAR anyway as thought she could potentially go handicap route ?? You've convinced me to deffo add her to my ever growing AP lockdown list !

    Comment


    • #17
      I think Dame De Compangie will be back in the Coral Cup given how little she went up.

      I touched on Burning Victory after watching the Triumph back a week or so ago and feel the same as I did then, the 20/1 is just about right.


      Burning Victory has put in a pretty impressive performance in this race. 6f to go she’s last by what looks like the best part of 20 lengths. She’s made a move around the turn and saunters past Adonis winner Solo. At the 2f pole she’s just gotten level with Aspire Tower but by the time we get to 1f out and the final flight she taken off and landed before he gets his legs up and she’s moved into ‘the lead’ after reeling in the front running Allmankind. She is running away from both quite powerfully at the line and it’s a very impressive performance that for obvious reasons may well go under the radar. This was only her 2nd run for Willie and she’s unbeaten and a festival winner. I’m confident she will get further and the 20/1 on offer for the Mares Hurdle may well be double the price she is when lining up. However, as a juvenile it’s dangerous to get carried away as the whole crop may not have been up to much (with the obvious exception). I hoped she’d perhaps have been completely over looked but 20/1 is about right. Definitely not a bet for me at this stage but certainly made it onto the shortlist for horses to consider in that sphere.
      Just to add, the thing that puts me off is I always like there to be a chance the horse I back goes off favourite... and I just can't imagine one of the 'star' mares doesn't see it as an easy chance for another win OR Burning Ambition stamping her authority on the division so she's there by merit.

      Now she could do that, but does that happen more than 1 in every 20 times? I don't think so.


      Shortlist - yep... but I reckon she'll be a fair each way price still in January/February so no need to back her for this now.
      Last edited by Kevloaf; 26 May 2020, 07:26 PM.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Lobos View Post
        Very good shout. I was thinking of backing BA TWAR anyway as thought she could potentially go handicap route ?? You've convinced me to deffo add her to my ever growing AP lockdown list !
        There's every chance she ends up in a handicap to be fair.
        Just depends how she goes/progresses.
        And whether the triumph works out or not.
        We'd normally have a few more clues by now.

        She's deffo unexposed though and her Triumph win (coming from so far back, and pretty much the only one to do so) has been massively
        overshadowed by the tripping up of Goshen. With his magnetic shoes.

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
          I think Dame De Compangie will be back in the Coral Cup given how little she went up.

          I touched on Burning Ambition after watching the Triumph back a week or so ago and feel the same as I did then, the 20/1 is just about right.



          Just to add, the thing that puts me off is I always like there to be a chance the horse I back goes off favourite... and I just can't imagine one of the 'star' mares doesn't see it as an easy chance for another win OR Burning Ambition stamping her authority on the division so she's there by merit.

          Now she could do that, but does that happen more than 1 in every 20 times? I don't think so.


          Shortlist - yep... but I reckon she'll be a fair each way price still in January/February so no need to back her for this now.
          I thought I'd read/heard someone mention her in a similar fashion.
          Was going to start a Mares hurdle thread the other day but couldn't work out how to put the Oddschecker page up.

          Could you add it into the first post Kev with your magic Pen ?????

          Yep I agree.
          20-1 is a value price I reckon (just). But I won't be backing her yet.
          As I think it'll be available (or similar) at other times in the season or nearer the race itself.
          Unless she comes out bang in form like you said. And especially if others start looking elsewhere.
          If that's the case Then you/I'd have to take the lower price on the chin if still interested.

          She's no longer ambitious BTW she's victorious.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Quevega View Post
            There's every chance she ends up in a handicap to be fair.
            Just depends how she goes/progresses.
            And whether the triumph works out or not.
            We'd normally have a few more clues by now.

            She's deffo unexposed though and her Triumph win (coming from so far back, and pretty much the only one to do so) has been massively
            overshadowed by the tripping up of Goshen. With his magnetic shoes.
            Yeah spot on.


            Her horrible brown and yellow colours won't help her cause either. What on earth were they thinking. I think they're my least favourite silks.






            #pinkandgreenforthewin

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Quevega View Post

              She's no longer ambitious BTW she's victorious.
              Haha I noticed that mistake when I went to check that I got the colours right and was bemused that I could have sworn they were brown.

              Took me at least 15 seconds - being 9 didn't do it for me

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                Yeah spot on.


                Her horrible brown and yellow colours won't help her cause either. What on earth were they thinking. I think they're my least favourite silks.






                #pinkandgreenforthewin
                agree about the colours.
                Although they are the same colours as my favourite Chew.

                Banana Skids.

                If that's the reason for the colours then that's Ok by me.

                Had some Wham Bar Ice cream the other day.
                Highly recommend it.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Quevega View Post
                  There's every chance she ends up in a handicap to be fair.
                  Just depends how she goes/progresses.
                  And whether the triumph works out or not.
                  We'd normally have a few more clues by now.

                  She's deffo unexposed though and her Triumph win (coming from so far back, and pretty much the only one to do so) has been massively
                  overshadowed by the tripping up of Goshen. With his magnetic shoes.
                  According to Andy Gibson, "I thought it was also very interesting that Burning Victory was extremely slow from the final hurdle to the winning line compared with each of Monkfish, Saint Roi and Indefatigable". IE, she tired up the hill after a 'hold up' ride.

                  I'm happy with my EW bet on Concertista for this race next year so happy to hear people mentioning that both Benie and Honeysuckle may choose other options!

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Listening to you guys I think it's the right move for me to play all 3 (DDC, BA and Concertista) TWAR. They could all end up in separate races with big chances as well which is always a bonus !

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                    • #25
                      Daylight Katie could be something of a forgotten horse for this.

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                      • #26
                        Laurina also now with Nicholls.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by OverTheLast View Post
                          Daylight Katie could be something of a forgotten horse for this.
                          Could be, I'd think she's more likely to end up in a handicap though given that she's with Gordon Elliotta nd that angle is workable still.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Bonjers View Post
                            Laurina also now with Nicholls.
                            Been mentioned on a couple of threads now..... I can't imagine that we live in a world where an ex Willie Mullins horse wins the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham.

                            He'd have fought harder to keep her / not let go / try extra hard if he thought she'd snaffle this prize away from him.



                            She wasn't exactly high on anybodies list as most likely winners I'm sure, but as good as Nicholls is, it can't be a positive.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Fairly big news for this race, Honeysuckle's plans are to remain over hurdles.


                              Wasn't expecting that personally.

                              Will it affect Benie Des Dieux's target?

                              Will they have a rematch?



                              Is Honeysuckle certain to run here? (if well)

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                7/2 for an unbeaten 6/7 year old mare is value. Even this far away.

                                Her only rival will be 10 years old and could even go chasing at Cheltenham. Although more likely line up here again I'd reckon.

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