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Thread: Envoi Allen

  1. #21
    Professional Fat Jockey (Moderator) Istabraq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kinloch brae View Post
    I went into the Festival thinking Envoi Allen would win the Supreme but came out wondering whether in fact he would have been third.
    Wow but each to their own....

  2. #22
    Professional Fat Jockey kinloch brae's Avatar
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    Bula won his first 13 races (including a Gloucestershire Hurdle and a Champion Hurdle) and 16 of his first 17 (including a second Champion Hurdle). He didn't usually win by wide margins either. I don't the ratings but I would have thought he would be rated a good bit higher than Faugheen and Envoi Allen.

    I am not saying that Envoi Allen isn't going to continue winning just suggesting that he still has plenty to prove in a different discipline and as such he might not represent the kind of value bet that most people seem to think.

  3. #23
    Professional Fat Jockey kinloch brae's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
    Glad you've gave him his own thread KB.

    Can't see how you would rate Aba better than EA but that's the beauty of racing I suppose.
    You don't think his Supreme run was an improvement on the Royal Bond second?

  4. #24
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) Craigy14's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kinloch brae View Post
    Bula won his first 13 races (including a Gloucestershire Hurdle and a Champion Hurdle) and 16 of his first 17 (including a second Champion Hurdle). He didn't usually win by wide margins either. I don't the ratings but I would have thought he would be rated a good bit higher than Faugheen and Envoi Allen.

    I am not saying that Envoi Allen isn't going to continue winning just suggesting that he still has plenty to prove in a different discipline and as such he might not represent the kind of value bet that most people seem to think.
    You can barely fault what EA has done to date KB. He is unbeaten, a 2 time festival winner, has a ptp background so the likelihood he takes to fences gives you a bit more confidence. It just seems that in the UK people always want to take people down when they are at the top or on the way to the top. Yes he still has a way to go but I think we just need to all enjoy what we are seeing.

    I’m of the opinion he would have won either the supreme or ballymore without question. Turning the bend he’s 3 lengths down, all 3 jumps the last together, even before he got to the flight everyone watching knew the winner. I thought it was a very good performance. Given all the pressure etc on the stable jockey and of course the horse to deliver.

    Don’t think anyone is saying that the 4/1 I think that’s available in the Marsh is good value in a single. I certainly haven’t backed him in a single. But you can’t deny what we have witnessed to date that he is likely destined for the top over fences as well.

  5. #25
    Professional Fat Jockey Rhinestone_Cowboy's Avatar
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    I see where you are coming from in terms of perceived value KB, but Iím not sure many people are saying he is a great value bet at 9/2 for a target that isnít certain. I think most would agree that the best value is likely to be found at bigger odds. That said for people like me who are not adverse to have a few covered in the Championship races there is no way I am going to not cover EA for the Marsh and Shishkin for the Arkle. 4/1 is as low as I am willing to go antepost so I have to back these before they debut if I think they are fair favourites (which I think both are) and for me become unbackable. I will though ensure Iím backing with cash out and free bets to reduce the risk a little

  6. #26
    Stable Fat Jockey (Moderator) Faugheen_Machine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Craigy14 View Post
    Don’t think anyone is saying that the 4/1 I think that’s available in the Marsh is good value in a single. I certainly haven’t backed him in a single. But you can’t deny what we have witnessed to date that he is likely destined for the top over fences as well.
    I actually think he's the best value of all the favourites and have back him in singles.

  7. #27
    Stable Fat Jockey (Moderator) ComplyOrDie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kinloch brae View Post
    You don't think his Supreme run was an improvement on the Royal Bond second?
    I don't think Envoi Allen is a 2miler, so for him to win the Royal Bond is pretty impressive IMO. Abacadabras definitely improved as I usually put Royal Bond runners aside as a no go for the Supreme, so he ran a cracker and already noted I was wrong regarding him (despite nabbing the 16's straight after the RB).

    My opinion on them all is at their optimum distances Envoi Allen is top of his tree. As I've already debated, I don't think he'd be as effective now over 2m. But doesn't take away what he has done to date at all.

  8. #28
    Professional Fat Jockey (and self-proclaimed Voice of Reason) Quevega's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kinloch brae View Post
    You don't think his Supreme run was an improvement on the Royal Bond second?
    I Doubt anyone doubts that.

    I think the mild incredulity from Istabraq & FM was with your (he may have been third comments, and that he didn't improve himself)
    Think a few would doubt that.

  9. #29
    Professional Fat Jockey Saxon Warrior's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Craigy14 View Post
    You can barely fault what EA has done to date KB. He is unbeaten, a 2 time festival winner, has a ptp background so the likelihood he takes to fences gives you a bit more confidence. It just seems that in the UK people always want to take people down when they are at the top or on the way to the top. Yes he still has a way to go but I think we just need to all enjoy what we are seeing.

    I’m of the opinion he would have won either the supreme or ballymore without question. Turning the bend he’s 3 lengths down, all 3 jumps the last together, even before he got to the flight everyone watching knew the winner. I thought it was a very good performance. Given all the pressure etc on the stable jockey and of course the horse to deliver.

    Don’t think anyone is saying that the 4/1 I think that’s available in the Marsh is good value in a single. I certainly haven’t backed him in a single. But you can’t deny what we have witnessed to date that he is likely destined for the top over fences as well.
    4/1 EA is a fair top up bet in a double, maybe.

    For me, I think the mid-distance Grade 1 chases, the Marsh and Ryanair are usually tricky to be 100% sure that is where a horse is definitely going to end up - however for EA it does seem the most likely atm.

  10. #30
    Apprentice Fat Jockey (5lb claim)
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    Very interesting to read everyoneís thoughts on Envoi Allenís single figure prices, and other horses mentioned in a similar breath on here. Surely guys and girls, the very,very large majority of the odds we look at ante post for Cheltenham for next year, are just about right, as they generally always are? The reason Envoi Allen was the odds on horse that people didnít really want to touch the week before the festival was because they believed there was better value out there? Which completely ignored the fact Envoi was absolutely the one likely winner of the race, even before it was run? Is an 8/1 loser more profitable than a 4/6 winner? Or is taking the 10/1 on Envoi 5 months in advance when it was 90% certain heíd go the Ballymore route a clearly sensible financial investment when we all knew before heíd popped over his first hurdle of the season he was a beast of a horse.....

    The 4/1ís available at present on both Shishkin (Arkle) and Envoi Allen (Marsh) and 2/1 on Easysland (Tiger Roll might just be left for the big one at Aintree I genuinely feel confident about) make a 74/1 treble currently. If all 3 horses are fit and their seasons progress the way their trainers are hoping, it is with a reasonable amount of foreseeing, that all 3 horses will go off odds on. And if, for argument sake, all 3 horses went off 5/6, youíve got yourself a 5/1 treble instead of one paying out 15 times more than that at this current moment.

    So value, for each and every one of us, is very much in how we personally see it. Those single figure prices on the aforementioned horses could look bargains on the day. He who dares, for sure.

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