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Thread: Envoi Allen

  1. #61
    Professional Fat Jockey FaugheenTheMachine's Avatar
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    The Marsh just seems to fit perfectly imho; just really hope he’s as electric over fences as he looks he could be

  2. #62
    Professional Fat Jockey Lobos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FaugheenTheMachine View Post
    The Marsh just seems to fit perfectly imho; just really hope he’s as electric over fences as he looks he could be
    The weight of money for him suggests he is Marsh bound but I wouldn't risk it. I don't see him as an Arkle horse and can't see him staying over hurdles so it's the Marsh or RSA for me. Backed him at 5/2 TWAR and will continue to chip away. Yes, he's way too short but he is a very special horse so we can't be choosy.

  3. #63
    Stable Fat Jockey (Moderator) ComplyOrDie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lobos View Post
    The weight of money for him suggests he is Marsh bound but I wouldn't risk it. I don't see him as an Arkle horse and can't see him staying over hurdles so it's the Marsh or RSA for me. Backed him at 5/2 TWAR and will continue to chip away. Yes, he's way too short but he is a very special horse so we can't be choosy.
    I think you must be the one of the first to agree with me (to a degree) about him not being an Arkle horse

  4. #64
    Apprentice Fat Jockey (5lb claim) EnvoyAllen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
    I think you must be the one of the first to agree with me (to a degree) about him not being an Arkle horse
    I think looking across the board at all of the bookies odds for “Envoi@Arkle“, every bookmaker agrees with you Sir...??

    Why a horse that’s been acknowledged by its trainer as a future gold cup horse, winning in its novice season over an intermediate distance would then drop down to the minimum distance a year later ‘as prep’ for maybe 2 tilts in his prime years for a Gold Cup the year after that......... I would personally find bewildering. It would make no reasonably logical racing sense. Surely??

    Also Mr ComplyOrDie, I noticed you’ve been (I’m sure) very keen on Mr Trump at odds of 10/11 (or close) and have been advocating this is value compared to the odds you believe he’ll shorten to just before the US election? Well, I’ve decided to add him to a lot of multiples too. May I just ask on why you think he’ll shorten so much in the next few months? I hope indeed the 10/11 price is currently a good one!

    I’m banking on your knowledge and reasoning!

  5. #65
    Stable Fat Jockey (Moderator) ComplyOrDie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EnvoyAllen View Post
    I think looking across the board at all of the bookies odds for “Envoi@Arkle“, every bookmaker agrees with you Sir...??

    Why a horse that’s been acknowledged by its trainer as a future gold cup horse, winning in its novice season over an intermediate distance would then drop down to the minimum distance a year later ‘as prep’ for maybe 2 tilts in his prime years for a Gold Cup the year after that......... I would personally find bewildering. It would make no reasonably logical racing sense. Surely??

    Also Mr ComplyOrDie, I noticed you’ve been (I’m sure) very keen on Mr Trump at odds of 10/11 (or close) and have been advocating this is value compared to the odds you believe he’ll shorten to just before the US election? Well, I’ve decided to add him to a lot of multiples too. May I just ask on why you think he’ll shorten so much in the next few months? I hope indeed the 10/11 price is currently a good one!

    I’m banking on your knowledge and reasoning!
    Haha indeed they do seem to agree with me, but I'm trying to beat them not agree with them

    Agree regarding his future of being a Gold Cup horse, whilst some would argue horses have won an Arkle and still won Gold Cups, I think it'd be a backwards step myself, and think he'd be vulnerable also.

    With regards to Mr Trump I've been going in blind, following others on here (not sure who got the ball rolling with that one, possibly Hurricane Fly), who noted the difference between the odds (which is what I'm basing the value of him on) in the states as opposed to our bookmakers. Been using him to get horses on side who I think are slightly under priced. By no way is that a clever idea, but for small stakes I am happy to risk it a little.

    You can find the US Election stuff here - US Election
    Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 26th May 2020 at 12:43 PM.

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