Stayers Hurdle 2021

[Istabraq]

Thyme Hill was the second horse I added (after Fakir Doudaries) after Cheltenham and whilst I agree he wouldn’t have sprinted past the others and won half the hill stayers generally don’t do that.
For me he has plenty of untapped potential and at 16/1 he looks to be one of the beat value horses for 2021.
Paisley could bounce back so I wouldn’t put anyone off covering that one but I do like Thyme Hill...

[Kevloaf]

Yeah, the appeal is that the bookies haven't slashed him for what most people assume would have happened...

I'll have had him as a single before the end of the weekend, he's in at least two multiples that I've speculatively placed.

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Agree on Thyme Hill; I really do think he’s the best value bet for Cheltenham 2021 at this stage

[Lobos]

Agree on Thyme Hill; I really do think he’s the best value bet for Cheltenham 2021 at this stage

He's certainly right up there especially after Stayers being highlighted by trainer as likely target. Him and Sire Du Berlais for me

[nortonscoin200]

A lot of people are saying Thyme Hill is great value at 16-1 and I can understand the argument.

But to my mind Lisnagar Oscar represents much better value at 16-1 even though many see the price as a negative because he's shortened from 25s.

Really don't think he's been given enough credit for winning the Stayers. Sure PP didn't perform but LO won that race fair and square.He was always travelling sweetly and kept going right to the line.

The Stayers was run 22 seconds faster than the Cheltenham race seven weeks earlier over course and distance on the same soft going where PP beat LO by 4 1/2 lengths with the latter receiving 3lbs. I'm not one for reading much into times but that comparison - if anything - enhances LO's victory. I'd imagine the Stayers is always likely to be run at a faster pace because of the greater strength in depth in the field.

LO also ran 5th in the AB in 2019 and will only be eight next year - connections must surely fancy having a crack at defending his crown.

And I think he'll be a tough nut to beat.

I toyed with the idea of backing Thyme Hill - rather than LO - in some multiples but after re-watching the AB several times I came to the conclusion that he would have won if he was good enough. A minority view, I know.

But TH is quite a small horse and I thought he was rather bullied out of it in the closing stages.

I also think it would be a mistake to assume he's bound to get a better ride next time. I'm in no way criticising Dickie.

It's just that the best horses usually seem to get in the perfect spot to launch their challenge. If you watch the Stayers again I think you'll agree LO cruises round in a very handy position the whole way.

The current choice is between a 16-1 shot who has just proved himself at this level and a 16-1 shot who may improve enough to be the best at this level.

And IMO the best value in that little contest hails from Wales rather than Somerset.

[Kevloaf]

Easy for me to chirp in on this as I put up and backed Lisnager Oscar while 25/1.

Whilst now both 16/1 you end up looking at proven form versus potential... and in this case, the potential of the Albert Bartlett looks like it wouldn't be far off getting you in the mix in a 'weak division'.


The majority of people do lean towards the improving, up and coming type.... and the only thing sexy about Lisnager Oscar is the trainer. His form was solid but not enough wins for anyone to really consider.... with that in mind too, is he a horse that you can rely on to perform all season and will end up contracting in price? Perhaps not?

Thyme Hill, although unproven, has the potential to shorten up. People are more than happy to back Goshen at 5/1 when he doesn't have better form than Epatante, but he's clearly got potential.



You can definitely argue that 16/1 is a good price for both, but if I had to back one of them I would go with the potential in this case...as I cannot see LO racking up a sequence of wins, but I can see Thyme Hill asserting himself as the one to beat in the division...





It's a good point though, the proven form is just that, so I wouldn't quibble at all with somebody choosing LO over TH... but I would go t'other way

[Istabraq]

Fair comments NC.
Often the way that when a fav bombs and there's a surprise winner of a big race that horse will always be disrespected.

Assuming the front three from the Potato race go chasing I can't have more than Thyme Hill, Paisley Park and Lisnagar Oscar in this, I really don't see any handicappers stepping up so you could easily build your book around those three and I think you'll win.
I may well get LO onside eventually, there are far worse 16/1 bets to be had....

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'd strongly fancy Ronald Pump to beat LO when they next meet. He had a less than ideal prep, having ran over fences for the majority of the season.

In the Stayers Hurdle he lost a shoe and was struck into so there's reason to think he could improve markedly on his run last season.

[Spectre]

Lisnagar Oscar won't have Apples Jade tanking them through the race at a suicidal pace next season though Norton's. Becky Curtis would need to throw a pacemaker in to give him the same chance IMO. I can't think of anything in the yard to do the job though. Also Ronald Pump would go close if that were the case. Without being blocked when challenging, and his mistake at the last the positions may well have been reversed. I say this as a backer of Lisnagar Oscar so I've no bias.

If next seasons Stayers is run at the usual pace it'll be more a Paisley Park type performance that wins it. Thyme Hill and Sire du Berlais seem the two most obvious candidates, as does Paisley Park himself if he's back to his best.

She's not in the betting anywhere, but I wonder if Henderson and JP wouldn't be tempted to pick up another handicap somewhere with Dame De Compagnie, and rather than target the Coral Cup again try their arm at the Stayers with her 7lb allowance. The Old Course is much easier to get home on, she didn't look like she was stopping in the Coral Cup, and a step up in trip might bring out further improvement.

If anyone fancies getting her priced up with 365 with the option of cashout let me know.

[Istabraq]

I didn't get why they went Stayers with Ronald Pump over Pertemps, could be they thought the Stayers was a weaker renewal ?
I wouldn't write off RP as a chaser, was showing good promise until firmly put in his place by Fakir Doudaries but as that one wins next years Champion Chase by 15l there's no disgrace in that form.
He may be a young ish horse but he's not short on experience, I just get the feeling if he was to win a festival race it was last season...

[Faugheen_Machine]

I didn't get why they went Stayers with Ronald Pump over Pertemps, could be they thought the Stayers was a weaker renewal ?
I wouldn't write off RP as a chaser, was showing good promise until firmly put in his place by Fakir Doudaries but as that one wins next years Champion Chase by 15l there's no disgrace in that form.
He may be a young ish horse but he's not short on experience, I just get the feeling if he was to win a festival race it was last season...

I think they've already said they are targeting the Stayers next season with RP.

[nortonscoin200]

Apple's Jade made it a very honest pace in the Stayers' but Adam Wedge made LO's victory look very straight-forward.

He was always in the first six or seven, kept out of trouble on the outside and then took it up as they for home.

Six of them had a go at him coming to the last but LO won going away.

The more I watch it the more impressive it looks.

I agree Thyme Hill is more likely to run up a sequence and shorten in price but who cares - I'd take LO over TH and Ronald Pump in the one race that matters.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3_FwU2pLgg

Defo one for the June yankie!!

[Humble Pie]

Apple's Jade made it a very honest pace in the Stayers' but Adam Wedge made LO's victory look very straight-forward.

He was always in the first six or seven, kept out of trouble on the outside and then took it up as they for home.

Six of them had a go at him coming to the last but LO won going away.

The more I watch it the more impressive it looks.

I agree Thyme Hill is more likely to run up a sequence and shorten in price but who cares - I'd take LO over TH and Ronald Pump in the one race that matters.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3_FwU2pLgg

Defo one for the June yankie!!

Rebecca Curtis told all her owners to back LO prior to this years race and the word from Pembrokeshire is she’s confident of improvement in the 7 year old
How many current Festival Winners were 25/20/1 to retain their crowns ?

Great value IMO

Have put in lots of ew multiple bets

[Spectre]

Could Buveur D’air step up in trip for this? JP is nap handed for the Champion Hurdle, and a fit and firing BD would be a serious player. He travels easily through his races, and in the early days they expected him to go up in trip.

Sire De Berlais looks to be going this route, but I can’t see that making too much difference to the decision. Buveur D’air isn’t generally quoted in the market. Skybet have him at 12/1 which is a stupid price, and Betway have him at 20/1 which is still on the short side. I might take it with the cash out option if 365 had him at the same price though.

At the moment I like Thyme Hill for the race, and I’ve got a couple of others in my book, and overall I’m happy with my early position. But if I thought BD was going to go this way I’d want a price as early as possible. Any thoughts or is it stir crazy thinking.

[Kevloaf]

It is feasible and I'd also be interested but 20/1 is shorter than he is/has been to win a CH, which would still be the more likely destination?

If you knew the target, 20/1 is a price I'd take with cashout.



Perhaps any race he may be 20/1?