Ryanair Chase 2021

[Kevloaf]

Market as of 22/05/2020




Lots of discussion in this race going on in the 2020 thread at the moment.

10/1 the field currently.

[archie]

With plenty of talk coming from the stable about running Alloha in the Marsh I remain far from convinced it was Willie’s preference to run him in the RSA and it was the owners that pulled rank. Even with this theory though it means there is a very good chance the owners will prefer to go for Gold Cup despite Willie and Co saying look he doesn’t stay well enough as proved by the RSA run.

Would love to hear archie’s response to that....

To clarify Patrick was directly quoted on camera in the lead up to the Festival saying he thinks he’d be better over shorter and if memory serves me correct Willie was quoted as saying there are those in the yard who said the same (obvs inc Patrick). While Willie doesn’t say he agrees with this he also doesn’t say he disagrees hence why I feel the owners had some role in the final decision as I believe they were keen to run him over further. It’s possible Willie just didn’t have a strong view on his best trip

Pre-Cheltenham, all I'd ever heard (at secondhand) was that Willie considered Allaho a potential Gold Cup horse. I was fairly strong on the line that he'd go RSA although, as a young horse, there was always the possibility that they might have wanted another year on him before going for a 3 mile championship. Personally, I don't believe that the RSA showed that he didn't stay 3 miles. He beat Minella Indo over 3 miles and it might just be that since that early hurdle race, Minella Indo has simply improved past him. Likewise, with another summer's grass in him, this might be when Allaho gets extra strength and maturity.

What I will say is that unless the chasing programme is radically different this autumn, you won't get much of a clue as to his Cheltenham target. Depending on when he comes to hand you could easily see him in something like the Clonmel Oils and then the Savills at Christmas.

** The above copied from the 2020 thread.

[Istabraq]

Market as of 22/05/2020


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You didn’t go low enough down the page for the winner Kev.
Riders on the Storm a decent bet at 25/1 and I think someone mentioned he was 33/1 somewhere.

Pretty much the only one guaranteed to run here as everything else will try and find speed for a QM crack or stamina for the Gold Cup.
ROTS was running a serious race before coming down 3 out last season and I know connections are keen on this one.
If he was with Hendo or Mullins he’d be a fraction of his current price...

[Kevloaf]

Haha, that was a full screen.

This might be a better format actually.

[ComplyOrDie]

You didn’t go low enough down the page for the winner Kev.
Riders on the Storm a decent bet at 25/1 and I think someone mentioned he was 33/1 somewhere.

Pretty much the only one guaranteed to run here as everything else will try and find speed for a QM crack or stamina for the Gold Cup.
ROTS was running a serious race before coming down 3 out last season and I know connections are keen on this one.
If he was with Hendo or Mullins he’d be a fraction of his current price...

Big issue was his jumping, which ultimately cost him, made a few mistakes I believe, but he certainly should not be 33/1.

[Istabraq]

Big issue was his jumping, which ultimately cost him, made a few mistakes I believe, but he certainly should not be 33/1.

I think the Twisters will get whatever work into the horse that’s needed to ensure he makes the necessary improvement.

What other horses in the market are guaranteed to run here ?
I say none are guaranteed but the likes of Min and A Plus Tard highly likely, the vast majority of those quoted will not run here...

[hardheld]

Surely this has got to be samcro’s target? Can’t see him getting 3.2m and the boss sponsors the race. Love the way he travels and jumps, he’s very quick away from his fences. If his lungs are clean, he will have a very good chance being 3 time festival winner.

[ComplyOrDie]

I think the Twisters will get whatever work into the horse that’s needed to ensure he makes the necessary improvement.

What other horses in the market are guaranteed to run here ?
I say none are guaranteed but the likes of Min and A Plus Tard highly likely, the vast majority of those quoted will not run here...

I think there will be more than you may think. Obviously QMCC and Gold Cup would be more pretigious, but I don't see trainers/owners turning away from the Ryanair.

Defi Du Seuil for instance, they have Fakir for QMCC, Melon has nothing to suggest he can get 3m yet, but definitely showed he wasn't as effective over 2m as he was 2m 4f, so he must come here, IMO. Samcro should come here, then onto the Gold Cup the following year, although I'd have stamina doubts for him in the GC myself.

I had already compiled a list (in old Ryanair thread) and doubts I have about quite a few of them, including some mentioned above. It is difficult to say 100% who will turn up here, but even if Riders Onthe Storm did, it wouldn't allay my jumping concerns still.

[Istabraq]

Surely this has got to be samcro’s target? Can’t see him getting 3.2m and the boss sponsors the race. Love the way he travels and jumps, he’s very quick away from his fences. If his lungs are clean, he will have a very good chance being 3 time festival winner.

I don’t disagree but right now it’s a guess up who runs here.
Losing Aintree and Punchestown does ‘t help us, Samcro may well have gone for one/both of the big 3m novices and won, he would then definitely be talked up as a Gold Cup candidate.

ROTS is being aimed here and is therefore the only one in the betting with a clear target

[Hardy Eustace]

Would give a bit of a mention to simply the Betts too - his Cheltenham form is rock solid and while he would need to improve another stone or so he may very well do that.

The ones that are on my radar are:

Riders on the storm - as we know he goes there. Only be a win bet for me as jumping is a concern, hee will either go very close or the obstacles will get in the way.
Min - reigning champ
Brewinupastorm - could be anything
Simplythebetts great C&D form
Fakir / DDS - surely one goes here - whichever one would be very interesting.

[Istabraq]

If I owned Simply the Betts I’d target the same race next year.
Only ever ran in graded company once and was beaten a mile in Summerville Boy‘s Supreme, stuck to handicaps since which is probably his level unless there’s a feeling fences have brought about significant improvement.

I’ve covered my views on Defi and Fakir elsewhere, I’m convinced Fakir is a QM winner in waiting and after beating up a poor division of 2 milers Defi got found out when he attempted the QM.
Defi, for me, needs to step back up and if he landed here he would be a big player.

Min should come here but is rising 10.

Brewinupastorm I just don’t know, flattered to deceive for me so not convinced he’s a genuine G1 performer but he could easily prove me wrong, is this his trip ? Who knows...

[ComplyOrDie]

Would give a bit of a mention to simply the Betts too - his Cheltenham form is rock solid and while he would need to improve another stone or so he may very well do that.

The ones that are on my radar are:

Riders on the storm - as we know he goes there. Only be a win bet for me as jumping is a concern, hee will either go very close or the obstacles will get in the way.
Min - reigning champ
Brewinupastorm - could be anything
Simplythebetts great C&D form
Fakir / DDS - surely one goes here - whichever one would be very interesting.

Brewin'upastorm could be interesting for sure. Imperial Aura, one who has form with Simply The Betts, is another I think could improve past his previous victor.

The great danger I have with the majority of the English runners form is they were winning handicaps (as seems to usually be the case) whilst the Irish were taking the G1's over fences, with the exception of Champ (unlikely to come here anyway) and Politologue (in a p**s poor renewal of a Champion Chase). I have to question, automatically, the strength of the English horses/performances.

[Craigy14]

You didn’t go low enough down the page for the winner Kev.
Riders on the Storm a decent bet at 25/1 and I think someone mentioned he was 33/1 somewhere.

Pretty much the only one guaranteed to run here as everything else will try and find speed for a QM crack or stamina for the Gold Cup.
ROTS was running a serious race before coming down 3 out last season and I know connections are keen on this one.
If he was with Hendo or Mullins he’d be a fraction of his current price...

He did seem to be running a good race, whether he would have been there or not we’ll never know.

I’m of the opinion he wouldn’t have been in the mix and my opinion was purely on the fact that every runner that day at ascot 15th feb performed very poorly at Cheltenham.

Not a scientific way to look at at but of the runners that day at ascot not one performed well from memory.

[Kevloaf]

I agree with Ista on this race in terms of how tough it is as an ante post proposition.


The difficulty with this race is there are 'too many' potential horses entering the scene. It's a bit like the Coral Cup (easier than that though)


Horses of any level of ability could surface from:

QMCC - too slow for that but step up suits (Defi Du Seuil? Chacun?)
GC - don't stay well enough for that extreme test (Allaho, Clan Des Obeaux?)
Handicapers - stepping into graded company (Simply the Betts, Imperial Aura)
Novices - into open company (Samcro, Melon, Fakir, etc)
Returning horses - didn't do it this year but not far away (Saint Calvados, A Plus Tard, RidersOTS)


None of them are wildly priced. There are horses i'd definitely fancy if I knew they were running.

Allaho is the horse I think I most want to see in the race, but even saying that, he's a best price 12/1 and Min is 10/1 and I've got absolutely no doubt in my mind at all that Min is a better horse right now.


Even working out which of those will be better 10 months from now is tough enough for me.





As I usually do in this race, I'll assume we end up with 1 'proper grade 1' horse and depending on who that looks like being, I'll work out whether I'm with or against it and go from there.





To sum up, working out if you have a horse better than Min at the moment isn't enough to tell you whether you'd win the race, or not even make the placings.

[Curly]

I fancy fakir for this race - i think it will go up in distance next year so got on at 33/1