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  1. #11
    Professional Fat Jockey (Moderator) Istabraq's Avatar
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    If I owned Simply the Betts I’d target the same race next year.
    Only ever ran in graded company once and was beaten a mile in Summerville Boy‘s Supreme, stuck to handicaps since which is probably his level unless there’s a feeling fences have brought about significant improvement.

    I’ve covered my views on Defi and Fakir elsewhere, I’m convinced Fakir is a QM winner in waiting and after beating up a poor division of 2 milers Defi got found out when he attempted the QM.
    Defi, for me, needs to step back up and if he landed here he would be a big player.

    Min should come here but is rising 10.

    Brewinupastorm I just don’t know, flattered to deceive for me so not convinced he’s a genuine G1 performer but he could easily prove me wrong, is this his trip ? Who knows...

  2. #12
    Stable Fat Jockey (Moderator) ComplyOrDie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hardy Eustace View Post
    Would give a bit of a mention to simply the Betts too - his Cheltenham form is rock solid and while he would need to improve another stone or so he may very well do that.

    The ones that are on my radar are:

    Riders on the storm - as we know he goes there. Only be a win bet for me as jumping is a concern, hee will either go very close or the obstacles will get in the way.
    Min - reigning champ
    Brewinupastorm - could be anything
    Simplythebetts great C&D form
    Fakir / DDS - surely one goes here - whichever one would be very interesting.
    Brewin'upastorm could be interesting for sure. Imperial Aura, one who has form with Simply The Betts, is another I think could improve past his previous victor.

    The great danger I have with the majority of the English runners form is they were winning handicaps (as seems to usually be the case) whilst the Irish were taking the G1's over fences, with the exception of Champ (unlikely to come here anyway) and Politologue (in a p**s poor renewal of a Champion Chase). I have to question, automatically, the strength of the English horses/performances.

  3. #13
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) Craigy14's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Istabraq View Post
    You didn’t go low enough down the page for the winner Kev.
    Riders on the Storm a decent bet at 25/1 and I think someone mentioned he was 33/1 somewhere.

    Pretty much the only one guaranteed to run here as everything else will try and find speed for a QM crack or stamina for the Gold Cup.
    ROTS was running a serious race before coming down 3 out last season and I know connections are keen on this one.
    If he was with Hendo or Mullins he’d be a fraction of his current price...
    He did seem to be running a good race, whether he would have been there or not we’ll never know.

    I’m of the opinion he wouldn’t have been in the mix and my opinion was purely on the fact that every runner that day at ascot 15th feb performed very poorly at Cheltenham.

    Not a scientific way to look at at but of the runners that day at ascot not one performed well from memory.

  4. #14
    Champion Fat Jockey (Moderator) Kevloaf's Avatar
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    I agree with Ista on this race in terms of how tough it is as an ante post proposition.


    The difficulty with this race is there are 'too many' potential horses entering the scene. It's a bit like the Coral Cup (easier than that though)


    Horses of any level of ability could surface from:

    QMCC - too slow for that but step up suits (Defi Du Seuil? Chacun?)
    GC - don't stay well enough for that extreme test (Allaho, Clan Des Obeaux?)
    Handicapers - stepping into graded company (Simply the Betts, Imperial Aura)
    Novices - into open company (Samcro, Melon, Fakir, etc)
    Returning horses - didn't do it this year but not far away (Saint Calvados, A Plus Tard, RidersOTS)


    None of them are wildly priced. There are horses i'd definitely fancy if I knew they were running.

    Allaho is the horse I think I most want to see in the race, but even saying that, he's a best price 12/1 and Min is 10/1 and I've got absolutely no doubt in my mind at all that Min is a better horse right now.


    Even working out which of those will be better 10 months from now is tough enough for me.





    As I usually do in this race, I'll assume we end up with 1 'proper grade 1' horse and depending on who that looks like being, I'll work out whether I'm with or against it and go from there.





    To sum up, working out if you have a horse better than Min at the moment isn't enough to tell you whether you'd win the race, or not even make the placings.

  5. #15
    Apprentice Fat Jockey (7lb claim)
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    I fancy fakir for this race - i think it will go up in distance next year so got on at 33/1

  6. #16
    Ante Post Tipping Comp - 2020 winner TigerRolllllll's Avatar
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    So unlike many....i really like this race and think it gets better every year

    Its often quite tough for ante-post bets....but have already backed a few that i want in the book whilst decent prices around

    Main bet is Min at 11s.....seems an ok price and think my shortest AP so far....surely he will try to defend and is strong G1 horse. Would expect him to go off much shorter if stays fit

    Other small stakes on Melon at 22s (yes, prob crazy....but was a free), Imperial Aura at 25s and Simply Betts at 28s.....again as boo builders that might develop

    Would like Allaho and Defi if they came here....but prices not great given we don't know their plans

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