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  1. #41
    Champion Fat Jockey (Moderator) Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Where was the case made for Marie's Rock?

  2. #42
    Ante Post Tipping Comp - 2020 winner TigerRolllllll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Where was the case made for Marie's Rock?
    Would rely on same progress as Epatante, from roughly same ratings at same stage.....and Epatante was exceptional

    Was bit annoyed at missing 66s after reading posts on here, but just noticed she has shortened again with most and was some 60s on BFI, so had a nibble

  3. #43
    Professional Fat Jockey Lobos's Avatar
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    Already backed Epatante, Saint Roi and Concertista for this. For me Epatante is the one to beat and I think 4/1 is generous even this far out. She was very good this year. Immaculate hurdler and travels like a dream with an electrifying change of pace. What's not to like?

  4. #44
    Champion Fat Jockey (Moderator) Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Abacadabras at 8/1 would fall in the same category, so whilst I like him and can see it as a possibility he wins the Champion Hurdle, he's only double the price of Epatante and that doesn't look like value either.
    Doing a little back track on this statement.

    Just watching that Supreme back again and I'm getting more and more convinced that Abacadabras just looks like a Champion Hurdler.


    Getting beaten in a Supreme didn't do Buveur D'air any harm, and it's not ridiculous in suggesting he can take a step forward again. Plenty of very good horses have been beaten in the Supreme before.


    The odds are shorter than I want them to be, but I don't think he's going to be very far away at all.


    It'll be easy for people to knock, as he didn't win his Supreme so we could certainly argue Shishkin is a better horse...but not by a lot at all.

    Also, just looking back at when Envoi Allen beat him, he didn't beat him on the snaff at all... Abacadabras did look to have the race won.

    If he can mature again over this summer I think he could end up being the best of the Irish by the time we get to 2021, and while I can't bring myself to back him in a single... I do want to



    I'm not saying he's value particularly, but I do think he's going to be fucking good next year and I kind of dismissed him because of the price but he's closer to 'correct price' than 'too short'

  5. #45
    Champion Fat Jockey (Moderator) Kevloaf's Avatar
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    I do realise saying he'll be the best of the Irish is hardly a big call as he's already the shortest priced Irish horse

    One of Willie's will be shorter at some point though

  6. #46
    Professional Sicko-pant Humble Pie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Doing a little back track on this statement.

    Just watching that Supreme back again and I'm getting more and more convinced that Abacadabras just looks like a Champion Hurdler.


    Getting beaten in a Supreme didn't do Buveur D'air any harm, and it's not ridiculous in suggesting he can take a step forward again. Plenty of very good horses have been beaten in the Supreme before.


    The odds are shorter than I want them to be, but I don't think he's going to be very far away at all.


    It'll be easy for people to knock, as he didn't win his Supreme so we could certainly argue Shishkin is a better horse...but not by a lot at all.

    Also, just looking back at when Envoi Allen beat him, he didn't beat him on the snaff at all... Abacadabras did look to have the race won.

    If he can mature again over this summer I think he could end up being the best of the Irish by the time we get to 2021, and while I can't bring myself to back him in a single... I do want to



    I'm not saying he's value particularly, but I do think he's going to be fucking good next year and I kind of dismissed him because of the price but he's closer to 'correct price' than 'too short'
    Well said Kev

    I’m a big fan of Aba’s and won’t be far away at the business end come March 2021 IMO

    I’m happy with my 16’s , less so with my 10’s , yes Donut bet as should have gone in fully first bet and not “ topped up”
    But like all our ante post bets , a long long way to go

    Cmon ABA’as

  7. #47
    Stable Fat Jockey (Moderator) ComplyOrDie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Humble Pie View Post
    Well said Kev

    I’m a big fan of Aba’s and won’t be far away at the business end come March 2021 IMO

    I’m happy with my 16’s , less so with my 10’s , yes Donut bet as should have gone in fully first bet and not “ topped up”
    But like all our ante post bets , a long long way to go

    Cmon ABA’as
    16's is a cracking price! I could only muster up 10's but still happy with it. He's a fair horse alright. One I didn't give enough credit too pre-festival (despite backing him at 16's for the Sup), but held my hands up afterwards. Travels well, hurdles well, big chance. Just get up that hill!

  8. #48
    Apprentice Fat Jockey (5lb claim) EnvoyAllen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Market as of 22/5/2020




    I personally won't entertain a bet on Goshen at 5/1 whilst Epatante is 4/1 - which isn't to say Goshen can't end up thrashing her, but with only 1 pt difference I just wouldn't be able to have that much 'faith' at single figure odds. Obviously I'm not backing Epatante at single figure odds either, but if I had to place a bet it'd be on the one that had the form in the book at those prices.

    Abacadabras at 8/1 would fall in the same category, so whilst I like him and can see it as a possibility he wins the Champion Hurdle, he's only double the price of Epatante and that doesn't look like value either.

    Then Envoi Allen, Shishkin and Honeysuckle are quoted at less than 20/1 a piece, but I don't think there is any chance at all Honeysuckle would run here. The other two I'm anticipating being Novice Chasers, however if they weren't I'd look to take the 14/1 and 16/1 just because they being double the price of Abacadbras would be wrong. I imagine the moment the news broke though the odds would be slashed... (you'd hope they'd push Abacadbras out but wishful thinking no doubt)

    Then it's 4x Willie Mullins horses Saldier, Saint Roi, Sharjah and Benie Des Dieux at 25/1 along with previous winner Buveur D'air. Striking BDD off the list who won't be in the race the other 4 have cases to be made at 25/1.

    Chantry House and Concertista are 33/1 and it's 40/1 bar.


    The four horses in bold interest me the most at the moment with a view to making a book...but I'll go in to that more in the diary whenever I do.




    Looks like we've got a very healthy amount to debate in this race though, Saint Roi, Goshen and Epatante have already taken up plenty of pages so let's get it all in one place

    The very large majority of your analysis, and judgement is very good on here Kev, but I would like to offer an alternative view on what you consider Goshen to ‘not be entertained’ and you’ve also mentioned is a ‘hype horse’.

    Arriving at Cheltenham (a championship race against the best 4 year olds from all sides of the pond, with which barring a freak mistake, he would have won by let’s say, 10 lengths?), his winning margins were spectacular. Huge distances. He arrived as a ‘hype’ horse, and treated us to exactly why he is that. Surely equine superstars such as Frankel, Enable and the like are talked about with such elan, only on the specific reason they destroy good fields in class 1 races because of their brilliance? Hype 99% of the time comes because of sporting performance?

    The market below Goshen apart from Abacadras has Envoi Allen, Shishkin & Honeysuckle - all three most analysts and commentators would say at this precise moment aren’t Champion Hurdle bound - then we’ve got Benie Des Deux who had the chance of her life to run in this year’s, but didn’t. Her chance I would suggest, has fallen by the wayside. Beveur D’air will be 10, which would put doubt in most punters minds.

    So if, at present, we can discount those 5 horses directly below Goshen in the market as ‘unlikely’ to run in the Champion Hurdle, I would suggest the 5/1 on offer for a horse that is very well proven in ‘novice‘ company, and has it’s target pretty much confirmed by owner and trainer, as a very sound price?

    I’m not for any second saying he’ll win the event - nobody can - but to call Goshen a ‘hype’ horse is discrediting it’s form and superior winning distances over the months preceding the festival.

    Just of course, an alternative look at a price.

  9. #49
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) Hardy Eustace's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EnvoyAllen View Post
    The very large majority of your analysis, and judgement is very good on here Kev, but I would like to offer an alternative view on what you consider Goshen to ‘not be entertained’ and you’ve also mentioned is a ‘hype horse’.

    Arriving at Cheltenham (a championship race against the best 4 year olds from all sides of the pond, with which barring a freak mistake, he would have won by let’s say, 10 lengths?), his winning margins were spectacular. Huge distances. He arrived as a ‘hype’ horse, and treated us to exactly why he is that. Surely equine superstars such as Frankel, Enable and the like are talked about with such elan, only on the specific reason they destroy good fields in class 1 races because of their brilliance? Hype 99% of the time comes because of sporting performance?

    The market below Goshen apart from Abacadras has Envoi Allen, Shishkin & Honeysuckle - all three most analysts and commentators would say at this precise moment aren’t Champion Hurdle bound - then we’ve got Benie Des Deux who had the chance of her life to run in this year’s, but didn’t. Her chance I would suggest, has fallen by the wayside. Beveur D’air will be 10, which would put doubt in most punters minds.

    So if, at present, we can discount those 5 horses directly below Goshen in the market as ‘unlikely’ to run in the Champion Hurdle, I would suggest the 5/1 on offer for a horse that is very well proven in ‘novice‘ company, and has it’s target pretty much confirmed by owner and trainer, as a very sound price?

    I’m not for any second saying he’ll win the event - nobody can - but to call Goshen a ‘hype’ horse is discrediting it’s form and superior winning distances over the months preceding the festival.

    Just of course, an alternative look at a price.
    I agree that Goshen could be very good. The problem I have though is his price. Would you rather have the reigning champion who will be getting 7lbs at a point shorter or would you rather have a horse untested outside of 4 year old company at a point bigger? For me it is a no brainer.

  10. #50
    Stable Fat Jockey (Moderator) ComplyOrDie's Avatar
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    As one of Goshens, self proclaimed, biggest fans on here, the step out of juvenile company is enormous, and should not be underestimated.

    What he was about to do to the Triumph field, was, largely expected, for me, but I would have doubts, until proven, going in to open company company.

    Double figures would be fair, he's half that now, but he should be a bigger price than Abacadabras IMO.

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