Hills TWAR Movers & Shakers

[Lobos]

So that have:

My point holds very firm, I would absolutely rather take 10/1 for this e/w than 20/1 for Cheltenham 'any race'.

If he isn't going VERY close to winning this, he won't be up to improving his modest festival record IMO.

And if he dots up in GP the 20/1 TWAR will be long gone for those of us who don't bet anything AP other than The Festival. Horses for courses.

[Nortons who]

When viewing Galvin's potential, it's probably also worth thinking about Imperial Aura and the high regard in which he is held following his win over Galvin in the Northern Trust Chase off only 1lb difference in the weights.

'Imperial Aura

One of the beauties of the Festival is it’s not all about Grade 1s. Imperial Aura was backed off the boards for trainer Kim Bailey for the Listed novices’ handicap chase on the opening day and fully justified favouritism to win.
He is yet to finish outside of the first two in four starts over fences, with three of those coming at Cheltenham. The handicapper may have raised Imperial Aura a whole stone for his ready Festival success, but he doesn’t have to improve much more to be a Ryanair Chase contender next year.'

Also Galvin made a mistake at the first fence and cruised into the race after that to the final bend, with in my opinion Davy Russell looking as though he thought he had something significant left in the locker. Time will tell but with further experience and training on, I was convinced enough a couple weeks ago by Gordon Elliott's comments to back Galvin TWAR

Gordon Elliott quote re Galvin

'I have a few nice horses earmarked for the summer, and one of the better ones would have to be Galvin, for who we are hoping to have a crack at the Galway Plate. He has got his act together over fences and ran well at Cheltenham when second in the Close Brothers to a nice horse. We think he might be the right type for the Galway Plate and he's in good form.'

[archie]

Gordon Elliott quote re Galvin

'I have a few nice horses earmarked for the summer, and one of the better ones would have to be Galvin, for who we are hoping to have a crack at the Galway Plate. He has got his act together over fences and ran well at Cheltenham when second in the Close Brothers to a nice horse. We think he might be the right type for the Galway Plate and he's in good form.'

That quote is solely about the Plate and it's wishful thinking to read anything more in to it.

All about opinion, of course, and everyone is entitled to make any bet they wish. Everyone is also entitled to enquire as to the availability of barge-poles.

[Kevloaf]

What I am failing to see, is why the obsession with Cheltenham next year.

The comments are plain as day to see he's being aimed at the Galway Plate, where he is 10/1

Yet "the value" is taking 20/1 Any Race for March?



Absolutely baffling.


I am trying not to be a dick

[Nortons who]

What I am failing to see, is why the obsession with Cheltenham next year.

The comments are plain as day to see he's being aimed at the Galway Plate, where he is 10/1

Yet "the value" is taking 20/1 Any Race for March?



Absolutely baffling.


I am trying not to be a dick

Kev - stop trying so hard as it comes naturally ( really am kidding but it was too good an opportunity to resist).

Agree entirely about Gordon's comments referring only to this Summer. The reason I backed Galvin for Cheltenham at 22-1 TWAR with a boost was because Galvin if you recall was one of the Cheltenham Handicap horses we talked up. He performed well enough at the Festival so the previous form at the track holds up well and Gordon obviously thinks highly enough of him. He also seems versatile enough over trip and ground conditions. On this basis I have taken a chance now for Cheltenham. In the old days I might have had a punt on the Galway Plate but since like Lobos my main focus is Cheltenham Ante Post then I perceive the current odds TWAR to be fair enough value.

Overall it was just interesting to me that Gordon thinks highly of the horse, it was one we latched onto for 2020 and he seems to be going the right way. I can think of a lot more 20-1 shots TWAR that have much less evidence already in their favour.

BTW , as a negative I did already point out to someone on here that there are very few recent instances of Galway Plate winners going on to achieve success at Chetenham. I think this is called shooting oneself in the foot but it's only fair after my ooening remark!

[Kevloaf]

I'm reading it, but it's not going in.


Despite 10/1 being available for a race we know he's fit and well and aimed at in 3 weeks time, at 20/1 you'd rather hope he runs well then also performs well in March next year?



If you like Galvin enough to take 20/1 in March 2021 (in July 2020 or earlier) yet REFUSE to even have 0.5 pts e/w at 10/1 for a race you have set yourself up to fail.



I understand the enjoyment, but if you can afford to invest whatever the stake is 'any race' with no NRNB, and no cashout, then why limit yourself to not be able to back a horse at surely generous odds?



If he's as well regarded as you hope, then he'd be hacking up won't he?



Gordon is not short of horses either, if he's plotting Galvin towards the Galway Plate (which has clearly been the plan) then do you genuinly believe Galvin is one of his BEST chances to win at next years festival?

I love Gordon, I've done a post specifically highlighting his handicap runners and how you'd get on backing them blind..... but it doesn't mean I think every horse he owns will be a good bet ante post for Cheltenham 2021.

[SamuelP]

If Galvin's any race price is to be clipped in from the Galway Plate it will be because he has run well and/or won. This will likely put his handicap mark up and make it more difficult to win handicaps down the line.
I also think for the novice chases you are likely to get 20/1 or better on the day, unless it's the NH chase then surely we will spot that angle and back accordingly with much more evidence and potentially with bonuses such as cashout.
Therefore i am definately in the camp that says 10/1 for the upcoming Galway Plate is a much better bet than 20/1 8 months out.

[Lobos]

A certain horse won his first novice chase during a long summer racing campaign in 2016 , winning at Killarney along the way and unseated when fav at that years Galway Festival. The following March that horse ran away with the NHC. The horses name.....Tiger Roll. Ravenhill took a similar route before winning this year's race. Cause of Causes ran all summer long again taking in Killarney and the Galway Festival before finishing a close 2nd in the Kim Muir in 2014. Hang on a minute....Chicago Grey won the 2011 NHC after another summer trip round the Irish tracks visiting Killarney and the Galway Festival. So shock horror, Gordon , who trained all these animals does have a peculiar history of preparing horses for the festival in this way. How strange. Can lightning strike again with Galvin ???? Perhaps it's not all guesswork with me after all.

[Big Bucks]

I think you would be wise to back Galvin in the plate. The way I see it, if it wins and you haven't backed it you are Daffy Ducked! Unless its gunna go and win the Ryan Air or something like Balko Des Flos. Handicapper will hammer him and probably either not make the festival or skip a handicap. Then if he is in Ryan Air for example I'd expect 20/1 would seem very short then!

But you never know, could run a stinker, plot job and be in another handicap or NHC and run a mighty race!

Bar BDF, I don't think winners turned up at the festival never mind ran well. May be wrong didnt do a full detailed research on it. Unless all you want is a spin round the race and slide under the radar, which again could be Elliotts plan!

EDIT I just checked out of curiosity for the NHC to see a price and expected around 33-40s but surprised its only 25s! Thats poor at this stage! Only 365 have it priced up, someone in here ask for it?

[billymag]

Wouldnt Galvin still be novice at the festival over fences, if so the Ryanair comparison with Balko is irrelevant?

[Big Bucks]

Wouldnt Galvin still be novice at the festival over fences, if so the Ryanair comparison with Balko is irrelevant?

If that's the case and it wins then I dont think will end up at Cheltenham. Could be wrong just reading into previous trends

[Kevloaf]

The sensible thing to do would be see what mark he gets given for the Galway Plate.

The any race angle covers him for handicaps, but his hurdles mark would be revised and he's clearly going UP in the weights given his reappearance so working out his potential value now is really hard without knowing what his new mark is at the moment.

His potential for a festival win in a handicap, you need to weigh up at 20/1 versus the 10/1 for the GP. I would be staggered if Gordon, who has earmarked the Galway Plate, uses that race to then try and shave a few lbs off for a race in March. It's crazy to assume that is 'the plan'.

So with me expecting him to run well at Galway, the fact he couldn't win off 142 in the Novice Handicap Chase means he's going to have to have improved SIGNIFICANTLY to win at Cheltenham off what is highly likely to be a HIGHER mark.

For me, that rules out any handicap being value at 20/1. The fact he could turn up in so many of them, means nothing to me.



On to the NHC, you'd think we're talking about a dual festival winner at 20/1, he's had a 6th and a 2nd... and lobos, the point you're making does not make 20/1 value. With all the horses you mentioned, they were ALL available at 20/1 or bigger, when NRNB was about! Jono put Tiger Roll up at 25/1 NRNB. Ravenhill was also available at 25/1 NRNB right from the top of my head and plenty of people got on.

The idea that he will improve to win a Ryanair is wide of the mark, but as a novice he'd be most likely to run in the Marsh Novice Chase? Where the head of the market we have Envoi Allen, who I have absolutely no doubt at all is ahead of Galvin in the pecking order despite not even jumping a fence yet


All I am trying to establish, is why their is this rush to get him backed now...when I've seen no case for 20/1 being value yet.

[Hardy Eustace]

I get what you are saying, but how many dual festival winners do you see at 20/1 TWAR. That just never going to happen. His festival form isn't that bad. He was still weak in the ballymore. He comes back next year and is beaten by a handicap blot and a very good horse in Imperial Aura - take IA out and he wins the race on the snaff. The fact is he doesn't win the race and stays as a novice which brings in the NHC. If 365 have priced him at 25's for that then 20's is a fair enough price given that if he wins the Galway plate he won't be 20's any race and could be considered a Marsh horse so you have two solid options at 20/1.

Again, there are a lot of IF's here - but isn't that what antepost betting is all about 8 months out?!

[Big Bucks]

Just to clarify I wasn't saying he would win a Ryanair, far from it. I was just making a point thats what Balko did, but wouldn't even consider Galvin for it, then billymag corrected me anyway on it. Was just saying winners of the race haven't went on to do much after.

[Kevloaf]

I get what you are saying, but how many dual festival winners do you see at 20/1 TWAR. That just never going to happen. His festival form isn't that bad. He was still weak in the ballymore. He comes back next year and is beaten by a handicap blot and a very good horse in Imperial Aura - take IA out and he wins the race on the snaff. The fact is he doesn't win the race and stays as a novice which brings in the NHC. If 365 have priced him at 25's for that then 20's is a fair enough price given that if he wins the Galway plate he won't be 20's any race and could be considered a Marsh horse so you have two solid options at 20/1.

Again, there are a lot of IF's here - but isn't that what antepost betting is all about 8 months out?!

The TWAR is being over played in this scenario though isn't it?

How many races is he going to line up in where 20/1 is standout value?

The NHC is one where he could be loads shorter... but where else would he be put in the market at anywhere near single figure odds?
I'm not saying his records bad at all, I'm just saying it's okay. People said Min had a bad festival record




If he wins the Galway Plate, he makes still makes no appeal TWAR, I still wouldn't think "oh great, I'm on Galvin at 20/1 now for Cheltenham" - I'll be thinking, great a 10/1 winner. I wonder where he'll go