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Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

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  • #16
    Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post
    I think there’s more to come from Israel Champ and Linelee King next season. They both performed poorly in the Champion Bumper but they will both improve with obstacles to encounter. Whilst they may not be top class they will definitely win races. Israel Champ is the best horse Pipe has had for a few years and even though he appears to be regressing as a trainer sometimes a special horse can reignite a stables form and Israel Champ looks a powerhouse of a horse. Maybe not next season but he will win a big race at Cheltenham at some point. Linelee King is capable of better and could be a dark horse for the ever improving Olly Murphy. I’ll be looking to get them both covered TWAR when they are priced up.
    Didn't Israel Champ just down tools in the Champion Bumper? I would have said it was closer to shocking than poor.

    I did include a couple of his in my bumper list but was happy to avoid that one.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by kinloch brae View Post
      Didn't Israel Champ just down tools in the Champion Bumper? I would have said it was closer to shocking than poor.

      I did include a couple of his in my bumper list but was happy to avoid that one.
      They did capitulate and fold quite easily in the CB but I think they were outpaced as were many of the field. What other bumper horses from Pipe or Murph stand out for you KB?

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      • #18
        Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post
        They did capitulate and fold quite easily in the CB but I think they were outpaced as were many of the field. What other bumper horses from Pipe or Murph stand out for you KB?
        I have included Make Me A Believer and Martinhal in my list. Nothing from Murphy. You would hope he has better amongst his unraced bunch because those he ran didn't really didn't come up to scratch. Plenty of short priced reverses. Increasingly, I get the impression he feels he has 'arrived' to the extent that he no longer needs to win bumpers on anything like a regular basis. Greatrex would be another in that bracket.

        In general I don't think the bumper season really took off and given that thought it was all the more disappointing that we didn't have Fairyhouse, Aintree and Punchestown. They might well have produced a different pecking order.

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        • #19
          make me a believer a half brother to king roland and nominated by tom malone as his horse to follow for next year

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          • #20
            Originally posted by jackh50 View Post
            make me a believer a half brother to king roland and nominated by tom malone as his horse to follow for next year
            Yes, strong, galloping type. No surprise if we see him back at Chepstow.

            Comment


            • #21
              Added Energumene today from the TWAR with Hills at 27/1. A Tony Bloom owned horse who is currently trained by Willie Mullins. I had backed him for this seasons champion bumper but he didn’t win his 1st race but did win his next 2 including over hurdles last time out comfortably winning his maiden the weekend before the Festival. I would expect him to turn up at next seasons festival but it sure what race so took the TWAR.

              I couldn’t find him in any of the dedicated novice hurdle markets? Anyone know why?!
              Last edited by The King Pimm; 28 April 2020, 06:49 PM.

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              • #22
                Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post
                Added Energumene today from the TWAR with Hills at 27/1. A Tony Bloom owned horse who is currently trained by Willie Mullins. I had backed him for this seasons champion bumper but he didn’t win his 1st race but did win his next 2 including over hurdles last time out comfortably winning his maiden the weekend before the Festival. I would expect him to turn up at next seasons festival but it sure what race so took the TWAR.

                I couldn’t find him in any of the dedicated novice hurdle markets? Anyone know why?!
                I'd be surprised if he were to turn into a graded horse. He has won a maiden so will have to run in open company over hurdles next season, or a handicap.

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                • #23
                  Didn't want to clog up the ante post thread with comparing horses coming from PTP's and NHF races and this post centre's around Bob Olinger, who has been mentioned by a few members prior to this post and I wanted to get a grasp on where he would fit in at this stage of his career (improvement obviously likely):

                  It only revolves around RPR's and Top Speed (TS) figures, as none have official ratings coming from the PTP or NHF sphere that I am going to discuss.

                  Bob Olinger posted an RPR of 93 in his PTP, then followed up by hitting 135 on his NHF race debut, with a TS of 81, so I wanted to check against previous novice horses that had gone on to win in the Supreme and Ballymore hurdle races at the festival, as well as against some other bumper horses this season just gone.

                  All from their debut NHF runs.

                  Ballymore winners:

                  Envoi Allen - PTP: RPR 94
                  NHF: RPR 131
                  NHF: TS 20

                  City Island - NHF: RPR 123
                  NHF: TS 73

                  Samcro - PTP: RPR 92
                  NHF: RPR 118

                  Faugheen - PTP: RPR 90
                  NHF: RPR 136
                  TS: RPR 111


                  Supreme:

                  Shishkin - PTP: RPR 83 & 92
                  NHF: RPR 112
                  NHF: TS 82

                  Klassical Dream - No data

                  Summerville Boy - NHF: RPR 117

                  Altior - NHF: RPR 120

                  Festival bumper horses:

                  Ferny Hollow - PTP: RPR 93
                  NHF: RPR 128
                  NHF: TS 60

                  Appreciate It - PTP: RPR 82 & 90
                  NHF: RPR 129
                  NHF: TS 61

                  Queens Brook - PTP: RPR 73 & 82
                  NHF: RPR 123
                  NHF: TS 78

                  I've used debuts only for NHF races as that's all we have to go on for Bob Olinger, and of course many in this list went on to improve. I used the last 3 years winners for the Supreme and Ballymore and also one horse from recent times that I believe and i'm sure many do have gone on to become superstars, in this case Faugheen and Altior. I've also used the 1-2-3 from the bumper this season.

                  On the figures we have above, obviously not conclusive, it would appear on first glance that Bob Olinger could well become one to reckon with as the season progresses, he fits somewhere between Faugheen and Envoi Allen for what they all achieved at that point of their careers, and I personally believe we will see him near the head of any race market he is aimed at.

                  Trainer would have to be taken into consideration, and although I'd trust de Bromhead more with a chaser I don't think he is short of knowing what is needed to win a novice hurdle. Whether he can make it happen may be another thing.

                  I wanted a record of this so posted it on the forum as this is my go to place for all things Cheltenham now.

                  Currently 33/1 for both the Supreme and Ballymore, or alternatively 16/1 (can be boosted) any race with Hills.
                  Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 19 May 2020, 01:04 PM.

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                  • #24
                    Nice one COD, I am not looking anywhere but Bob Olinger for the Ballymore at this moment of time (early for me to make that judgement).

                    The last time I backed a Bumper winner so early for Cheltenham the following year, with such assurance, was Faugheen after his romp home on his bumper debut. I backed Faugheen for the Supreme, Ballymore and Any Race (14/1) as he looked to have a lot of pace.

                    On this occasion I am with Bob Olinger for the Ballymore only.
                    "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post
                      Nice one COD, I am not looking anywhere but Bob Olinger for the Ballymore at this moment of time (early for me to make that judgement).

                      The last time I backed a Bumper winner so early for Cheltenham the following year, with such assurance, was Faugheen after his romp home on his bumper debut. I backed Faugheen for the Supreme, Ballymore and Any Race (14/1) as he looked to have a lot of pace.

                      On this occasion I am with Bob Olinger for the Ballymore only.
                      I suspect it will be Ballymore too, I topped up today on this race only, but have him in the Supreme for now, as can cash (likely for profit if he shows up how we expect) when need to.

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                      • #26
                        Time I joined the bandwagon I think. Interesting stuff.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                          I suspect it will be Ballymore too, I topped up today on this race only, but have him in the Supreme for now, as can cash (likely for profit if he shows up how we expect) when need to.
                          Cracking stuff CoD - love the stats! I've got him in the Supreme too but from what we know so far the Ballymore looks ideal.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            I've got Bob in the Ballymore too ,was thinking whether or not.
                            to add him for the Supreme , But like you guys , think Ballymore.
                            more likely , I also like Farouk D'alene , who J.M mentioned a while ago.
                            also wondering if Farouk D might go to the Al Bartlett nov hdl.
                            So coincidentally today , i did a patent of.....
                            Uhtred - supreme n.hdl.
                            Bob Olinger - ballymore n.hdl.
                            Farouk d'alene - al bartlett n.hdl.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by BigChaang View Post
                              I've got Bob in the Ballymore too ,was thinking whether or not.
                              to add him for the Supreme , But like you guys , think Ballymore.
                              more likely , I also like Farouk D'alene , who J.M mentioned a while ago.
                              also wondering if Farouk D might go to the Al Bartlett nov hdl.
                              So coincidentally today , i did a patent of.....
                              Uhtred - supreme n.hdl.
                              Bob Olinger - ballymore n.hdl.
                              Farouk d'alene - al bartlett n.hdl.
                              Personally I see Uhtred either an Albert Bartlett or Martin Pipe horse. Be surprised if he's good enough to go close in a Supreme or Ballymore. His breeding suggests a trip too.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Some great input there CoD, thanks.

                                I’ve never places huge emphasis on RPRs unless in top level company and I remember going through an Irish bumper last season and was taken that 3/4 horses all had PTP RPRs around 88/90 which, at the time, I didn’t consider to be particularly high but having seen the PTP ratings of last years heroes I accept now this is a good mark.
                                It would be interesting if we could see a list of the highest rated PTP horses from seasons past to see how many progress under rules.

                                Clearly on your research Bob O is a talent, the usual head scratcher of what his target may be exists but a small any race play may be wise.

                                Thanks CoD, solid work...

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