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Virtual Grand National 2020 - Tips inside!

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  • #16
    One thing to note is the first running had all the top 6 as 8/9 YO all around the weights of 10st 12lb & 10st 13lb, so I would guess that the algorithm used has been improved upon year after year as the spread and variables of the outcomes seem to be more open now, for reference the top 6 of the last 3 years

    2017
    Cause Of Causes 16/1 1st 150 10st 13lb
    Pleasant Company 11/1 2nd 149 10st 12lb
    Vieux Lion Rogue 12/1 3rd 149 10st 12lb
    Vicente 16/1 4th 148 10st 10lb
    Blaklion 8/1 5th 152 11st 1lb
    The Young Master 20/1 6th 150 10st 13lb

    2018
    Tiger Roll 10/1 1st 150 10st 13lb
    Chase The Spud 25/1 2nd 149 10st 12lb
    Total Recall 7/1 3rd 156 11st 5lb
    Houblon Des Obeaux 25/1 4th 144 10st 7lb
    Vieux Lion Rogue 25/1 5th 150 10st 13lb
    Blaklion 14/1 6th 161 11st 10lb

    2019
    Rathvinden 8/1 1st 154 11st
    Tiger Roll 4/1 2nd 159 11st 5lb
    Jury Duty 10/1 3rd 151 10st 11lb
    Anible Fly 10/1 4th 164 11st 10lb
    Vintage Clouds 11/1 5th 144 10st 4lb
    Pleasant Company 12/1 6th 155 11st 1lb

    Comment


    • #17
      1 Tiger Roll, Davy Russell, 5-1, 11-10
      2 Bristol De Mai, Daryl Jacob, 20-1, 11-8

      4 Elegant Escape, Jonjo O'Neill jnr, 20-1, 11-2
      5 Anibale Fly, Barry Geraghty, 20-1, 11-2

      10 Alpha Des Obeaux, Richard Johnson, 25-1, 10-13

      13 Magic Of Light, Robbie Power, 18-1, 10-12
      14 Talkischeap, Tom Cannon, 25-1, 10-11

      16 Ballyoptic, Sam Twiston-Davies, 25-1, 10-11
      17 Burrows Saint, Rachael Blackmore, 12-1, 10-10
      18 Definitly Red, Brian Hughes, 14-1, 10-10

      20 Ok Corral, Derek O’Connor, 25-1, 10-9


      29 Any Second Now, Mark Walsh, 10-1, 10-6
      30 Potters Corner, Jack Tudor, 18-1, 10-6


      39 Kimberlite Candy, Richie McLernon, 16-1, 10-4
      40 Walk In The Mill, James Best, 16-1, 10-4


      Going with the odds statistic, this is all those 25-1 or under.
      In red are horse already ruled out using my thought process, age, weight, and season form.
      Last edited by Quevega; 2 April 2020, 03:11 PM.

      Comment


      • #18
        Kimberlite Candy is now 8, Q. Beating The Conditional by 21.5 lengths looks decent form. On the basis that the connections boost might include JP, I'd go with that one and Any Second Now who was clearly being specially prepared for the race.

        Comment


        • #19
          Going to rule out Elegant escape as he's ran three times at aintree and not very well and his season form is not great.

          Bristol de Mai also four runs at aintree but not brilliant results and no wins.

          No idea if the computer will factor course runs that aren't on national course to be fair but both ruled out on this basis.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by archie View Post
            Kimberlite Candy is now 8, Q. Beating The Conditional by 21.5 lengths looks decent form. On the basis that the connections boost might include JP, I'd go with that one and Any Second Now who was clearly being specially prepared for the race.
            Cheers archie, been doing most of this on phone in garden and mis -calculated that one. I'll edit above

            Definite contender then and joins my shortlist for sure.

            Comment


            • #21
              Going to rule out OK Corral on trainer grounds and his highish mark at age 10.
              And Potters Corner on a similar basis.
              And talkischeap also, and season form not great.

              Comment


              • #22
                10 Alpha Des Obeaux, Richard Johnson, 25-1, 10-13
                13 Magic Of Light, Robbie Power, 18-1, 10-12
                16 Ballyoptic, Sam Twiston-Davies, 25-1, 10-11
                18 Definitly Red, Brian Hughes, 14-1, 10-10
                29 Any Second Now, Mark Walsh, 10-1, 10-6
                39 Kimberlite Candy, Richie McLernon, 16-1, 10-4
                40 Walk In The Mill, James Best, 16-1, 10-4

                Leaves a shortlist after expert analysis and assistance

                Of 7, although I'm inclined to rule out Alpha des Obeaux and Definitely red due to being fallers or Pulled up previously and not being progressive types on paper, and Red is 11.
                Last edited by Quevega; 2 April 2020, 03:23 PM.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Quevega View Post
                  Cheers archie, been doing most of this on phone in garden and mis -calculated that one. I'll edit above

                  Definite contender then and joins my shortlist for sure.
                  Kimberlite Candy's chance may very well hinge on what ground they decided to give the virtual GN. All his wins have been on soft or heavy apart from a maiden hurdle and ptp. He's failed to make the frame in three chase runs on good to soft/good to yielding.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    13 Magic Of Light, Robbie Power, 18-1, 10-12
                    16 Ballyoptic, Sam Twiston-Davies, 25-1, 10-11
                    29 Any Second Now, Mark Walsh, 10-1, 10-6
                    39 Kimberlite Candy, Richie McLernon, 16-1, 10-4
                    40 Walk In The Mill, James Best, 16-1, 10-4

                    So 5 in the shortlist.
                    Fill your virtual boots.
                    Mine are Monkey boots (an eighties classic)

                    Good luck.
                    Think we might have got at least 3 of the placed horses in that lot, they'll probably have Tiger placing somewhere as well I'd have thought. A gallant second or third is odds on.

                    Any one else have any feedback then feel free. This virtual stuff is probably easier than the real thing. (and I'm being serious)

                    I'll place my bets across various accounts and post them on the day.
                    Wonder if we'll get any market moves ???

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Yeah I agree the model will throw up a fancied/relatively short price winner.
                      Any Second Now keeps ringing in my head but I'll leave it until you lot have finished doing all the work...

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by nortonscoin200 View Post
                        Kimberlite Candy's chance may very well hinge on what ground they decided to give the virtual GN. All his wins have been on soft or heavy apart from a maiden hurdle and ptp. He's failed to make the frame in three chase runs on good to soft/good to yielding.
                        I'd imagine the computer, if factoring ground would consider the extra distance favouring stamina which is obviously helpful for horses who show good form on soft/heavy.
                        Meaning it's less of a factor if they act on it or not, but more that it brings stamina more into play.

                        Many Clouds is a perfect example of this. It was a heavy ground merchant according to all experts. But won the National on pretty good ground.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          My concern is whether the computer system takes into account the days since the horses last race? Surely a number of these horses will be affected by their runs at Cheltenham on soft ground? I’ll probably be sucked into betting and gutted the real Grand National is off as I was going to bet Walk in the Mill and Ballyoptic. I think they should be involved in any virtual system if it’s genuine and realistic

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Another factor which might come into play this time is the very large weight range covering the field.

                            In this weekend's virtual GN just 7 horses are set to carry 11 stone or more.

                            In the (real) GN last year 14 horses carried 11stone or more.

                            In 2018 it was 10

                            In 2017 it was 12.

                            I'm still trying to work out the significance of this but feel it could have a major bearing on the way the computer comes up with a result.

                            Almost half the field is set to carry 10st 8lbs or less.

                            Does it give lightly weighted outsiders more of a chance - I think you need Kildisart in that short-list after all Q!!

                            One more thought, Any Second Now must have a great chance in this virtual race - but will he get round? He fell in the Irish GN last season and unseated (after being hampered) in the Paddy Power over Christmas. Two failed completions in 16 chases - must be a chance he comes a computer cropper.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post
                              My concern is whether the computer system takes into account the days since the horses last race? Surely a number of these horses will be affected by their runs at Cheltenham on soft ground? I’ll probably be sucked into betting and gutted the real Grand National is off as I was going to bet Walk in the Mill and Ballyoptic. I think they should be involved in any virtual system if it’s genuine and realistic
                              Yep.
                              The shortlist I've come up with coincidentally involves no cheltenham runners.
                              And are likely to have been horses most punters would have looked at.

                              I wouldn't worry about being sucked in as I think it's genuinely a great betting opportunity as it is nothing like the Virtual (random) racing we see Bookies produce normally.
                              Each way betting in particular should pay off, especially if they throw a spanner type winner into the equation.
                              Last edited by Quevega; 2 April 2020, 03:59 PM.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by nortonscoin200 View Post
                                Another factor which might come into play this time is the very large weight range covering the field.

                                In this weekend's virtual GN just 7 horses are set to carry 11 stone or more.

                                In the (real) GN last year 14 horses carried 11stone or more.

                                In 2018 it was 10

                                In 2017 it was 12.

                                I'm still trying to work out the significance of this but feel it could have a major bearing on the way the computer comes up with a result.

                                Almost half the field is set to carry 10st 8lbs or less.

                                Does it give lightly weighted outsiders more of a chance - I think you need Kildisart in that short-list after all Q!!

                                One more thought, Any Second Now must have a great chance in this virtual race - but will he get round? He fell in the Irish GN last season and unseated (after being hampered) in the Paddy Power over Christmas. Two failed completions in 16 chases - must be a chance he comes a computer cropper.
                                Just been looking at the completions records of the shortlist and they are all fairly similar, Most oif the five have fallen or unseated once or twice and it's hard to separate them on this basis.

                                You may be right with the outsiders angle and each to their own, but it looks statistically unlikely that a computer could throw in a big priced horse as a winner. As the same computer has compiled the odds. It would make itself look daft.
                                So I do think the under 25-1 odds angle is a strong one.

                                But Fuck knows really.

                                Comment

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