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  1. #11
    The 'self-proclaimed' Voice of Reason Quevega's Avatar
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    Good work native

  2. #12
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) nortonscoin200's Avatar
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    I've done Kildisart each way at 50-1 which strikes me as a very generous price.

    He gave The Conditional 11lbs and finished a neck second in the Ultima at the Festival 3 weeks ago. He also won the Grade 3 Betway Handicap Chase off 11st 12lbs at the Grand National meeting last year - staying on well to draw 5 lengths clear of Mister Malarkey (received 4lbs) with Oldgrangewood (rec 11lbs) a further 4 lengths back in third.

    That was on good ground but the Ultima was run on soft. Kildisart would prefer decent ground but I've been unable to find what the ground will be for the virtual race - or whether it's even been decided yet.

    Whatever, at 50-1 I would certainly have backed Kildisart for the real thing off a lovely weight of 10st 5lbs.

    Also, 3 of the last 5 winners of the real GN have been aged eight - which may also be in Kildisart's favour when the computer does its number crunching.

    The three previous winners of the virtual race have been aged nine (Cause of Causes 2017), eight (Tiger Roll 2018) and 11 (Rathvinden 2019).

    Good luck everybody.

  3. #13
    The 'self-proclaimed' Voice of Reason Quevega's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nortonscoin200 View Post
    I've done Kildisart each way at 50-1 which strikes me as a very generous price.

    He gave The Conditional 11lbs and finished a neck second in the Ultima at the Festival 3 weeks ago. He also won the Grade 3 Betway Handicap Chase off 11st 12lbs at the Grand National meeting last year - staying on well to draw 5 lengths clear of Mister Malarkey (received 4lbs) with Oldgrangewood (rec 11lbs) a further 4 lengths back in third.

    That was on good ground but the Ultima was run on soft. Kildisart would prefer decent ground but I've been unable to find what the ground will be for the virtual race - or whether it's even been decided yet.

    Whatever, at 50-1 I would certainly have backed Kildisart for the real thing off a lovely weight of 10st 5lbs.

    Also, 3 of the last 5 winners of the real GN have been aged eight - which may also be in Kildisart's favour when the computer does its number crunching.

    The three previous winners of the virtual race have been aged nine (Cause of Causes 2017), eight (Tiger Roll 2018) and 11 (Rathvinden 2019).

    Good luck everybody.
    Apart from the ground bit being bullshit.
    I'd have liked him at the price for the real race, except for the fact he ran in the Ultima, so close to the race.
    But I'm not sure the computer will factor this type of thing, or the ground (if anyone knows different then let us know)- It does mention weather conditions but not trainers randomly talking about horses preferred ground.

    I think Native might be on to something with the price thing though.
    It's hard for a computer to let a big priced horse win.

    I'm favouring Magic of Light at the minute. But I'm still working on it.

  4. #14
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) nortonscoin200's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Native River View Post
    Got incredibly bored at work and decided to use the National stats that I track to do something similar for this virtual one to see if the computer has something it favours.

    Based upon those who finished top 6 last 3 years it ran 14 of those top 18 were 8/9 YO and having their 1st or 2nd run at the track, and no one was of odds over 25/1 so seems it takes into account the odds quite a bit as last year no one was over 12/1 in the top 6, which would make sense as its essentially probability and that will be a key thing the algorithm will run it on I guess
    Good stuff NR.

    So if they go for 8 and 9-year-olds again at maximum odds of 25-1 that narrows the field down to just 6: Any Second Now (10-1), Kimberlite Candy (16-1), Magic of Light (18-1), Bristol De Mai (20-1), Elegant Escape (20-1) and Talkischeap (25-1).

    IMHO it's possible to discount Bristol De Mai off 11st 8lbs so you are left with a field of five.

    What's more Bristol De Mai (3 runs in the Mildmay) and Elegant Escape (2 runs in the Mildmay) don't fit the computer's preference for horses having their first or second run at the track - so that leaves four!!
    Last edited by nortonscoin200; 2nd April 2020 at 02:49 PM.

  5. #15
    The 'self-proclaimed' Voice of Reason Quevega's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nortonscoin200 View Post
    Good stuff NR.

    So if they go for 8 and 9-year-olds again at maximum odds of 25-1 that narrows the field down to just 6: Any Second Now (10-1), Kimberlite Candy (16-1), Magic of Light (18-1), Bristol De Mai (20-1), Elegant Escape (20-1) and Talkischeap (25-1).

    IMHO it's possible to discount Bristol De Mai off 11st 8lbs so you are left with a field of five!!
    It had Rathvinden down as winning last year though so it's a bit risky going with just the age thing.

    Walk in the Mill must be a serious contender from the computer perspective.
    4th last year off same weight.
    Won over the course earlier in the season, beating Kimberlite candy (ruled out due to age 7)

    I've narrowed it to 2 right now.

    Walk in The Mill - aged 10 - placed previously and good course form - similar weight - under 25-1
    Magic of Light - aged 9 - placed previously - similar weight - good form in current season - top jockey - under 25-1

    I would have liked anibale fly, but if the computer looks at his three chase starts this season he's no fucking chance (it's more likely it's the first virtual grand national death)

  6. #16
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) Native River's Avatar
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    One thing to note is the first running had all the top 6 as 8/9 YO all around the weights of 10st 12lb & 10st 13lb, so I would guess that the algorithm used has been improved upon year after year as the spread and variables of the outcomes seem to be more open now, for reference the top 6 of the last 3 years

    2017
    Cause Of Causes 16/1 1st 150 10st 13lb
    Pleasant Company 11/1 2nd 149 10st 12lb
    Vieux Lion Rogue 12/1 3rd 149 10st 12lb
    Vicente 16/1 4th 148 10st 10lb
    Blaklion 8/1 5th 152 11st 1lb
    The Young Master 20/1 6th 150 10st 13lb

    2018
    Tiger Roll 10/1 1st 150 10st 13lb
    Chase The Spud 25/1 2nd 149 10st 12lb
    Total Recall 7/1 3rd 156 11st 5lb
    Houblon Des Obeaux 25/1 4th 144 10st 7lb
    Vieux Lion Rogue 25/1 5th 150 10st 13lb
    Blaklion 14/1 6th 161 11st 10lb

    2019
    Rathvinden 8/1 1st 154 11st
    Tiger Roll 4/1 2nd 159 11st 5lb
    Jury Duty 10/1 3rd 151 10st 11lb
    Anible Fly 10/1 4th 164 11st 10lb
    Vintage Clouds 11/1 5th 144 10st 4lb
    Pleasant Company 12/1 6th 155 11st 1lb

  7. #17
    The 'self-proclaimed' Voice of Reason Quevega's Avatar
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    1 Tiger Roll, Davy Russell, 5-1, 11-10
    2 Bristol De Mai, Daryl Jacob, 20-1, 11-8

    4 Elegant Escape, Jonjo O'Neill jnr, 20-1, 11-2
    5 Anibale Fly, Barry Geraghty, 20-1, 11-2

    10 Alpha Des Obeaux, Richard Johnson, 25-1, 10-13

    13 Magic Of Light, Robbie Power, 18-1, 10-12
    14 Talkischeap, Tom Cannon, 25-1, 10-11

    16 Ballyoptic, Sam Twiston-Davies, 25-1, 10-11
    17 Burrows Saint, Rachael Blackmore, 12-1, 10-10
    18 Definitly Red, Brian Hughes, 14-1, 10-10

    20 Ok Corral, Derek O’Connor, 25-1, 10-9


    29 Any Second Now, Mark Walsh, 10-1, 10-6
    30 Potters Corner, Jack Tudor, 18-1, 10-6


    39 Kimberlite Candy, Richie McLernon, 16-1, 10-4
    40 Walk In The Mill, James Best, 16-1, 10-4


    Going with the odds statistic, this is all those 25-1 or under.
    In red are horse already ruled out using my thought process, age, weight, and season form.
    Last edited by Quevega; 2nd April 2020 at 03:11 PM.

  8. #18
    Professional Fat Jockey archie's Avatar
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    Kimberlite Candy is now 8, Q. Beating The Conditional by 21.5 lengths looks decent form. On the basis that the connections boost might include JP, I'd go with that one and Any Second Now who was clearly being specially prepared for the race.

  9. #19
    The 'self-proclaimed' Voice of Reason Quevega's Avatar
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    Going to rule out Elegant escape as he's ran three times at aintree and not very well and his season form is not great.

    Bristol de Mai also four runs at aintree but not brilliant results and no wins.

    No idea if the computer will factor course runs that aren't on national course to be fair but both ruled out on this basis.

  10. #20
    The 'self-proclaimed' Voice of Reason Quevega's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by archie View Post
    Kimberlite Candy is now 8, Q. Beating The Conditional by 21.5 lengths looks decent form. On the basis that the connections boost might include JP, I'd go with that one and Any Second Now who was clearly being specially prepared for the race.
    Cheers archie, been doing most of this on phone in garden and mis -calculated that one. I'll edit above

    Definite contender then and joins my shortlist for sure.

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