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Virtual Grand National 2020 - Tips inside!

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  • #31
    Tiger Roll and A Fly both to place imo.

    Total Recall is my pick since P Townend virtually picked him.

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post
      My concern is whether the computer system takes into account the days since the horses last race? Surely a number of these horses will be affected by their runs at Cheltenham on soft ground? I’ll probably be sucked into betting and gutted the real Grand National is off as I was going to bet Walk in the Mill and Ballyoptic. I think they should be involved in any virtual system if it’s genuine and realistic
      I think concerns about soft ground at Cheltenham ruining a horse's GN prospects are a bit of a fallacy TKP - and outweighed by the advantage of backing a horse for the GN who has just run well at Cheltenham.

      The majority of Cheltenham festivals are not run on soft ground but the stats below show how horses have overcome that barrier to win at Aintree. I've included Mon Mome in the stats because the Midlands National is as much of a slog as any race on soft at the Festival.

      There are 25 days between the Ultima last month and the virtual GN.

      In 2009 Mon Mome won the Midlands GN on soft ground carrying 11st 12 before winning the Grand National 21 days later.

      In 2015 Many Clouds finished 6th in the Gold Cup on soft ground and won the GN 28 days later.

      In 2018 Tiger Roll won the Cross Country at the Festival on soft and won the GN 31 days later.

      In 2019 Tiger Roll won the Cross Country on soft at the Festival and won the GN 24 days later.

      Comment


      • #33
        I thought this thread was a joke before I opened it.


        Absolutely brilliant. I have absolutely no desire to put any effort in but I will back the Quevega shortlist on the day now.


        My only thoughts would be Tiger Roll will definitely place bar the 'randomness' of a fall or unseat..... so working out horses that are 'well-in' with him make sense.

        I assume Magic of Light fits that best? Is Pleasent Company still in it? Well off?


        Not going to research it myself but great effort Quevega.

        Comment


        • #34
          2017
          Cause Of Causes 16/1 1st 150 10st 13lb 9
          Pleasant Company 11/1 2nd 149 10st 12lb 9
          Vieux Lion Rogue 12/1 3rd 149 10st 12lb 8
          Vicente 16/1 4th 148 10st 10lb 8
          Blaklion 8/1 5th 152 11st 1lb 8
          The Young Master 20/1 6th 150 10st 13lb 8


          2018
          Tiger Roll 10/1 1st 150 10st 13lb 8
          Chase The Spud 25/1 2nd 149 10st 12lb 10
          Total Recall 7/1 3rd 156 11st 5lb 9
          Houblon Des Obeaux 25/1 4th 144 10st 7lb 11
          Vieux Lion Rogue 25/1 5th 150 10st 13lb 9
          Blaklion 14/1 6th 161 11st 10lb 9

          2019
          Rathvinden 8/1 1st 154 11st 11
          Tiger Roll 4/1 2nd 159 11st 5lb 9
          Jury Duty 10/1 3rd 151 10st 11lb 8
          Anible Fly 10/1 4th 164 11st 10lb 9
          Vintage Clouds 11/1 5th 144 10st 4lb 9
          Pleasant Company 12/1 6th 155 11st 1lb 11

          added ages onto Native;s excellent work

          Comment


          • #35
            Had a look at those priced above 25-1 that have things going for them, like trainer, jockey, season form and handicap marks.

            And came up with the following

            Acapella Bourgeois 33-1
            Total Recall 40-1

            But I think for win purposes it makes sense to stick with the 25-1 and under

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by Quevega View Post
              https://www.racingpost.com/news/late...nd-odds/430637



              I reckon with a collective effort, we could nail this race. If you take the factors they will input into the machine.

              In fact I reckon Ryan could work it out.
              I wish I could Q, is give up work tomorrow if I could. I was going to do my dissertation at uni on using algorithms to predict horse racing results, by it the only supervisor who would take me on was a w***er so I decided it against it.

              Excellent effort though guys, I like the idea of trying to work it out on trends but I simply cba so I'll do what Kevs doing and just back Q's shortlist

              Comment


              • #37
                This is brilliant, I wonder what chances of 365 doing their awesome GN offer?

                Comment


                • #38
                  [QUOTE=Quevega;159503]13 Magic Of Light, Robbie Power, 18-1, 10-12
                  16 Ballyoptic, Sam Twiston-Davies, 25-1, 10-11
                  29 Any Second Now, Mark Walsh, 10-1, 10-6
                  39 Kimberlite Candy, Richie McLernon, 16-1, 10-4
                  40 Walk In The Mill, James Best, 16-1, 10-4

                  So 5 in the shortlist.
                  Fill your virtual boots.
                  Mine are Monkey boots (an eighties classic)


                  Reckon your shortlist could be bang on the money Q.

                  I'd put in Kildisart for Ballyoptic but otherwise I'm with you all the way.

                  During the last four years of the real Grand National 10 of the 16 horses who have finished 1-4 have been rated between 147 and 152.

                  That's a staggering 62.5% of placed horses in that narrow band - surely the computer must factor that in pretty highly (Kildisart falls within that bracket!).

                  The bottom weight in Saturday's virtual GN is rated 150 and the lowest 14 horses in the race - from Acapella Bourgeois down - are rated between 150 and 152.

                  Reckon that's the place to look for the winner.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    The odds are finally out with B365. They are realistic odds by the look of them too. I wonder if the limit it £10 max per customer or £10 per horse??

                    My choices are
                    Ballyoptic 25/1
                    Walk in the Mill 16/1.

                    Happy with them, both realistic

                    Ps Cheers Nortons Coin for the stats. I still think there would have been a few tired horses after this years festival, I’ve still not recovered myself mentally!! Good luck, I’m going to stick with my selections. I’m intrigued to see the outcome to see if it’s a credible result. Given the lottery aspect of the real GN any horse could win it.
                    Last edited by The King Pimm; 2 April 2020, 10:23 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Total recall 40/1
                      Burrows Saint 12/1

                      Both e/w

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Does anyone have a link of last years Virtual full result and odds?

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Great works folks, I'm also going play Quevega's shortlist.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Just throw in a curveball here, as bookies have promised to donate all profits to the NHS, could someone tweak the machine for a rag to win ?
                            Profits will be lower if a fancied horse wins, the cartoon people have said it’s already done and the team are sworn to secrecy but never have there been so much focus on this, a 100/1 winner and a couple of million going to the NHS will be seen as a great result.
                            Just a thought...

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post
                              The odds are finally out with B365. They are realistic odds by the look of them too. I wonder if the limit it £10 max per customer or £10 per horse??

                              My choices are
                              Ballyoptic 25/1
                              Walk in the Mill 16/1.

                              Happy with them, both realistic

                              Ps Cheers Nortons Coin for the stats. I still think there would have been a few tired horses after this years festival, I’ve still not recovered myself mentally!! Good luck, I’m going to stick with my selections. I’m intrigued to see the outcome to see if it’s a credible result. Given the lottery aspect of the real GN any horse could win it.
                              £10 ew per horse. Trying to get the family accounts all back in action.

                              and a to the good work on the thread. I have it somewhere in my head that jockeys who have a good Cheltenham often end up on the winner of the Grand National. That would probably give Aniable Fly, Total Recall and Tiger Roll but since it is a model maybe it will think Dickie is long overdue his win in the race.
                              Last edited by Old Vic; 3 April 2020, 08:25 AM.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                                Just throw in a curveball here, as bookies have promised to donate all profits to the NHS, could someone tweak the machine for a rag to win ?
                                Profits will be lower if a fancied horse wins, the cartoon people have said it’s already done and the team are sworn to secrecy but never have there been so much focus on this, a 100/1 winner and a couple of million going to the NHS will be seen as a great result.
                                Just a thought...
                                I did wonder if there may be a sentimental angle or public cheering up angle.
                                But that would be fixing the result.
                                So I dismissed it.
                                conspiracy theorists will love it though, and you never know.

                                Comment

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