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Virtual Grand National 2020 - Tips inside!

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  • Virtual Grand National 2020 - Tips inside!

    It could be months before proper racing.

    As this is a computer generated simulation, there must be some logic to the eventual outcome.

    On this basis I reckon this is a decent betting proposition.

    Anyone got any logical thought process as to any likely winners.

  • #2




    I reckon with a collective effort, we could nail this race. If you take the factors they will input into the machine.

    In fact I reckon Ryan could work it out.

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    • #3
      I was with The Storyteller a long way out and targeting a high quality hurdle race, and putting up a high quality performance, suggests there’s plenty to come over fences.
      Only one angle of course...

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      • #4
        Do you think we can rule out 7 year olds?
        Would the computer throw them out ?
        I reckon so

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        • #5
          Anything above 11st 9lb is probably out too.
          Which is just tiger.

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          • #6
            I think a computer is likely to rule out horses on their highest ever marks also. At least experienced older ones in any case.

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            • #7
              Probably 12 year olds out too.

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              • #8
                Last year result
                Rathvinden 10
                Tiger 9
                Jury duty 8
                Amiable fly 9

                Leaving it as amiable as it sounds really nice
                Last edited by Quevega; 2 April 2020, 02:24 PM.

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                • #9
                  Got incredibly bored at work and decided to use the National stats that I track to do something similar for this virtual one to see if the computer has something it favours.

                  Based upon those who finished top 6 last 3 years it ran 14 of those top 18 were 8/9 YO and having their 1st or 2nd run at the track, and no one was of odds over 25/1 so seems it takes into account the odds quite a bit as last year no one was over 12/1 in the top 6, which would make sense as its essentially probability and that will be a key thing the algorithm will run it on I guess

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                  • #10
                    Computer seemed to favour high profile jockeys

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                    • #11
                      Good work native

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                      • #12
                        I've done Kildisart each way at 50-1 which strikes me as a very generous price.

                        He gave The Conditional 11lbs and finished a neck second in the Ultima at the Festival 3 weeks ago. He also won the Grade 3 Betway Handicap Chase off 11st 12lbs at the Grand National meeting last year - staying on well to draw 5 lengths clear of Mister Malarkey (received 4lbs) with Oldgrangewood (rec 11lbs) a further 4 lengths back in third.

                        That was on good ground but the Ultima was run on soft. Kildisart would prefer decent ground but I've been unable to find what the ground will be for the virtual race - or whether it's even been decided yet.

                        Whatever, at 50-1 I would certainly have backed Kildisart for the real thing off a lovely weight of 10st 5lbs.

                        Also, 3 of the last 5 winners of the real GN have been aged eight - which may also be in Kildisart's favour when the computer does its number crunching.

                        The three previous winners of the virtual race have been aged nine (Cause of Causes 2017), eight (Tiger Roll 2018) and 11 (Rathvinden 2019).

                        Good luck everybody.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by nortonscoin200 View Post
                          I've done Kildisart each way at 50-1 which strikes me as a very generous price.

                          He gave The Conditional 11lbs and finished a neck second in the Ultima at the Festival 3 weeks ago. He also won the Grade 3 Betway Handicap Chase off 11st 12lbs at the Grand National meeting last year - staying on well to draw 5 lengths clear of Mister Malarkey (received 4lbs) with Oldgrangewood (rec 11lbs) a further 4 lengths back in third.

                          That was on good ground but the Ultima was run on soft. Kildisart would prefer decent ground but I've been unable to find what the ground will be for the virtual race - or whether it's even been decided yet.

                          Whatever, at 50-1 I would certainly have backed Kildisart for the real thing off a lovely weight of 10st 5lbs.

                          Also, 3 of the last 5 winners of the real GN have been aged eight - which may also be in Kildisart's favour when the computer does its number crunching.

                          The three previous winners of the virtual race have been aged nine (Cause of Causes 2017), eight (Tiger Roll 2018) and 11 (Rathvinden 2019).

                          Good luck everybody.
                          Apart from the ground bit being bullshit.
                          I'd have liked him at the price for the real race, except for the fact he ran in the Ultima, so close to the race.
                          But I'm not sure the computer will factor this type of thing, or the ground (if anyone knows different then let us know)- It does mention weather conditions but not trainers randomly talking about horses preferred ground.

                          I think Native might be on to something with the price thing though.
                          It's hard for a computer to let a big priced horse win.

                          I'm favouring Magic of Light at the minute. But I'm still working on it.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Native River View Post
                            Got incredibly bored at work and decided to use the National stats that I track to do something similar for this virtual one to see if the computer has something it favours.

                            Based upon those who finished top 6 last 3 years it ran 14 of those top 18 were 8/9 YO and having their 1st or 2nd run at the track, and no one was of odds over 25/1 so seems it takes into account the odds quite a bit as last year no one was over 12/1 in the top 6, which would make sense as its essentially probability and that will be a key thing the algorithm will run it on I guess
                            Good stuff NR.

                            So if they go for 8 and 9-year-olds again at maximum odds of 25-1 that narrows the field down to just 6: Any Second Now (10-1), Kimberlite Candy (16-1), Magic of Light (18-1), Bristol De Mai (20-1), Elegant Escape (20-1) and Talkischeap (25-1).

                            IMHO it's possible to discount Bristol De Mai off 11st 8lbs so you are left with a field of five.

                            What's more Bristol De Mai (3 runs in the Mildmay) and Elegant Escape (2 runs in the Mildmay) don't fit the computer's preference for horses having their first or second run at the track - so that leaves four!!
                            Last edited by nortonscoin200; 2 April 2020, 02:49 PM.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by nortonscoin200 View Post
                              Good stuff NR.

                              So if they go for 8 and 9-year-olds again at maximum odds of 25-1 that narrows the field down to just 6: Any Second Now (10-1), Kimberlite Candy (16-1), Magic of Light (18-1), Bristol De Mai (20-1), Elegant Escape (20-1) and Talkischeap (25-1).

                              IMHO it's possible to discount Bristol De Mai off 11st 8lbs so you are left with a field of five!!
                              It had Rathvinden down as winning last year though so it's a bit risky going with just the age thing.

                              Walk in the Mill must be a serious contender from the computer perspective.
                              4th last year off same weight.
                              Won over the course earlier in the season, beating Kimberlite candy (ruled out due to age 7)

                              I've narrowed it to 2 right now.

                              Walk in The Mill - aged 10 - placed previously and good course form - similar weight - under 25-1
                              Magic of Light - aged 9 - placed previously - similar weight - good form in current season - top jockey - under 25-1

                              I would have liked anibale fly, but if the computer looks at his three chase starts this season he's no fucking chance (it's more likely it's the first virtual grand national death)

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