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Cheltenham Festival 2020 feedback

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  • #16
    What was your best bet? (No monetary figures please)

    That was the Ultima where I was in the unusual position of cheering home three of the first five! I was on Kildisart ew at 20-1 and backed Big River 20-1 ew 1-6 on the day. After I made a case for Big River being decent value Kevloaf posted about a 25-1 WH special The Conditional and Big River to both finish in the first 5. I jumped at that and didn't know who to cheer most watching at the track. Meant I couldn't lose on the entire meeting (I'm not a high-roller, just a modest mug punter) so thanks again Kevloaf and Fat Jockey.

    Worst bet?

    Going in big (for me) on Solo in the Triumph after watching him skate up at Kempton. After 40+ years of assiduously studying form for the Festival that performance made me ignore one of my cardinal rules: never take a blind bit of notice of a horse who performs well at Kempton. As far as pointers to the Festival is concerned races at Kempton mean diddly squat - it's a completely different game. Note to self: Backing horses for the Festival on what they've achieved at Kempton is the fastest way to the poor house. Remember it in future.

    Favourite race of the Festival:

    Without doubt Samcro beating Melon and Faugheen in the Marsh - what an epic, that's one of the best races I've ever seen at Cheltenham( I didn't even have a bet in the race, couldn't work it out after Allaho defected). Bang up there with the epic dual between Bobsline and Noddy's Ryde in the Arkle in 1984. They went at it hammer and tong from the top of the hill on the final circuit. It was the two favourites - England versus Ireland - dualling all the way down the hill and then all the way up the straight to the line. The crowd were going barmy. I was there and had tears streaming down my face at the finish. Two absolute heroes - it doesn't get any better than that. Noddy's Rye broke his leg in a pipe-opener at Exeter the following season. Tragic. My dad bought me a weather vane showing a horse and jockey jumping a fence. I painted Noddy's Ryde colours on the one side and Norton's Coin on the other.

    Worst race of the Festival?

    Champion Chase - the no shows were such a shame.

    Best Performance?

    That has to go to Barry Geraghty. Champ barely jumped a fence, BJ virtually carried him round and then the horse showed his class to win another awesome finish. Must say I'm in no hurry to back Champ for the Gold Cup. His jumping is gonna be a problem.
    Best performer on four legs was Monkfish for me - in the van all the way and still had enough stamina to see it out in a high quality race. Very few horses win like that at the Festival. Reckon he has a big future - maybe Gold Cup 2022!

    Biggest disappointment?

    Carefully Selected in the four miler (as was). I thought he was a shoe-in but the writing was on the way from a long way out.

    Dark horse for next years Festival?

    I had high hopes - and some fancy prices - for Janidil this time and I think he'll make a smashing chaser next season. He finished 5th in the AB, beaten 11 lengths. The race didn't pan out brilliantly for him. Mark Walsh held him up towards the back of the field. He got checked before joining the leaders as they turned for home and stayed on at one pace in a very hot race. I think maybe Mark (who I love to bits) maybe overdid the hold up tactics but it was still a very decent effort. It was his first try beyond 2 miles since joining Willie who obviously sees stamina as his forte. The big question is where will he turn up next March. Hills go 20-1 any race - not for me. He's 40-1 all round for the RSA but Unibet have him up at 50-1 for the NH Chase. It's a gamble but I reckon it's worth taking because if he ends up being Willie's horse for the four-miler then Patrick will ride and could end up very short. Anyhow, FFS, I've nothing else to spend money on right now.

    Biggest irritation of this years Festival?

    Coronavirus concerns - but weren't we lucky to beat the deadline.

    Underdog performance of the Festival?

    Has to be Lisnagar Oscar - that was no fluke. He was fifth in the AB last season and was beaten just over four lengths by PP at the track in January - but in a ropey field apart from PP he was still allowed to go off at 50-1.....and we all missed it. How come? That was surely the each way bet of the meeting.

    Biggest regret?

    Je ne regrette rien. You either do or you don't.

    What would you do differently for next years Festival??

    My Cheltenham strategy has always been to look for value at double figure prices. I then back one horse in almost every race so I have an interest in the entire festival. It's fun, not a job. I go in for hardly any accumulators. I make a profit nearly every year - usually need about three winners and two or three each way returns and I'm ahead. But seeing (roughly) how some of you guys operate it's tempting to dabble more with the accas and back horses much earlier. Not sure it's going to suit me to be honest. I wouldn't normally start placing bets till about mid January. But it is fun!

    Comment


    • #17
      What was your best bet?
      I'd say saint roi as I took a decent cut at him very early with the exact plan of the county hurdle. I knew he was very well handicapped on his french run, and an innitial appearance here, where I diddnt believe was his true running.

      Worst bet?
      Buveur dair EW. I should have backed win only as I took twice the hit so far out.

      Favourite race of the Festival
      The gold cup, seeing a horse I spotted a very long way out as a novice, and have been following ever since, win back to back gold cups, is pretty special.


      Worst race of the Festival?


      Best Performance?
      Unusual I'd pick a handicap, but I thought sire du berlais and Barry geraghty put up a brilliant performance.

      A horse that fell, elixir d'ainay was running a fine race in the supreme.


      Biggest disappointment?
      The ultima. I Thought I had it in the bag. A race in which I'v never backed the winner. I had the horses either side, and got done after the last.

      Dark horse for next years Festival?
      Elixir d'ainay

      Biggest irritation of this years Festival?
      Not being able to use 365 and cash unwanted bets.

      Underdog performance of the Festival?
      Samcro,
      most deserted him, for a fair and square loss by a very good horse who had his optimum conditions. He Repaid the faith here.
      .

      Biggest regret?


      What would you do differently for next years Festival??

      I wont have any choice, but to dip into the market late.
      https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/
      Use code "FJ" in your sign up name for bonus content!

      Comment


      • #18
        What was your best bet? (No monetary figures please)

        A mid-December small stakes Yankee
        Shishkin 33/1 Supreme
        Carefully Selected 16/1 NH Chase
        Allmankind 20/1 Triumph
        Latest Exhibition 66/1 Albert Bartlett.

        Prices collapsed on them all as they won their pre-Festival races, to launch a big cashout potential a week before the Festival.
        After Shishkin’s win the cashout went mega, well into five figures, and being On-Course watching Carefully Selected make ground into 3rd, but not looking likely to make up the ground, I managed to cashout for the lot before they entered the straight and got to 2 out.

        The bet itself only had the one winner, so bizarrely I won the most I have won, by far, on a bet that would have paid out NIL without cashout

        Surreal feeling to have won enough to pay for maybe 5 or more annual Festival betting journeys, by the end of Day 1.

        —————————————-

        Second best bet, was backing Goshen at 40/1 and 33/1 for the 2021 Champion Hurdle on the Friday morning of the Festival. I woke up believing strongly that if any horse was going to take the Triumph apart, it would be Goshen, but I didn’t want to back him at 9/4, on raceday, and preferred to take my chances on the Champion Hurdle 2021 instead.


        Worst bet?

        I wouldn’t categorise anything as the worst bet, the nearest misses on the biggest payouts would be Ronald Trump and Latest Exhibition, but they weren’t bad bets.


        Favourite race of the Festival

        Although I had backed Minella Indo to deliver very good rewards, across two or three big price bets, I have to say that the run Champ conjoured up in the RSA was exceptional.
        This was matched to a degree by the less good rides Allaho and Minella Indo received, by racing each other too early.


        Worst race of the Festival?

        From a quality point of view the worst race by far is the National Hunt Chase. I can see it being high on the agenda for the race to be lost, when the racecourse make the decision in June, on what the Mares Chase will replace.


        Best Performance?

        Put The Kettle On - the control that mare had of the race, from start to finish was amazing.


        Biggest disappointment?

        I’m sure that we all have tales of near misses, and Days 3/4 had more of those for me, than occurred on Days 1/2. But having started the Festival so well, that took the edge of any disappointment I had from backing win only on Latest Exhibition, Ronald Trump & Column of Fire (for example).


        Dark horse for next years Festival?

        Taking this as meaning, decent priced horses, nothing less than say 16/1 or 20/1.

        1) Put The Kettle On - 20/1 Champion Chase (I’m assuming they want the big prize and 2M, not the Grade 2 Mares Chase over 2&1/2M, and took 33/1 on first show during Festival week)

        2) Captain Guinness - Arkle Chase available at 25/1.

        Also, I wouldn’t put anyone off 20/1 Ronald Pump, or Sire Du Berlais for the Stayers Hurdle.


        Biggest irritation of this years Festival?

        The virus definitely. I completely changed my routine at Cheltenham, I didn’t go into the Town after racing at all, didn’t go into the bars on course at all, and spent almost all of the time standing/sitting on the steps of the Members Stand watching racing, and staying there in-between. No virusy after-effects for me, which made for a happy home life on my return.


        Underdog performance of the Festival?

        Put The Kettle On - Arkle Chase.


        Biggest regret?

        Can’t have any regrets, I could have backed any horse, in any betting market, at any time, so choices were made to back or not to back them all through the season. I’m good with the way I make those assessments.


        What would you do differently for next years Festival??

        Almost exclusively use Bet365 next time round, wherever possible. Particularly for small stake multi-bets on big priced runners.
        Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 29 March 2020, 07:12 PM.
        "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

        Comment


        • #19
          Thanks all for your contributions, it’s nice to read members common results & opinions and some really impressive successful bets.
          Saxon Warrior, you did very well to cash out when you did on that Yankee, a second later and it would have been gone. I had a big potential return on Ronald Pump too but it was a win single on the exchange, I think someone lay him for 240/1 a month before the festival kicked off and I had 0.5 point on him.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Scooby91 View Post
            What was your best bet?
            I'd say saint roi as I took a decent cut at him very early with the exact plan of the county hurdle. I knew he was very well handicapped on his french run, and an innitial appearance here, where I diddnt believe was his true running.

            Worst bet?
            Buveur dair EW. I should have backed win only as I took twice the hit so far out.

            Favourite race of the Festival
            The gold cup, seeing a horse I spotted a very long way out as a novice, and have been following ever since, win back to back gold cups, is pretty special.


            Worst race of the Festival?


            Best Performance?
            Unusual I'd pick a handicap, but I thought sire du berlais and Barry geraghty put up a brilliant performance.

            A horse that fell, elixir d'ainay was running a fine race in the supreme.


            Biggest disappointment?
            The ultima. I Thought I had it in the bag. A race in which I'v never backed the winner. I had the horses either side, and got done after the last.

            Dark horse for next years Festival?
            Elixir d'ainay

            Biggest irritation of this years Festival?
            Not being able to use 365 and cash unwanted bets.

            Underdog performance of the Festival?
            Samcro,
            most deserted him, for a fair and square loss by a very good horse who had his optimum conditions. He Repaid the faith here.
            .

            Biggest regret?


            What would you do differently for next years Festival??

            I wont have any choice, but to dip into the market late.
            Where do you think Elixiar D’nay will end up next season?? I wrote him off before the start of the supreme thinking he was only it to try and land some place money after coming back in trip but he was travelling very well until brought down. I don’t know what his optimum trip is or whether they plan further hurdling or chafing with him??

            Comment


            • #21
              SW I can’t believe you were able to cash out that bet during the NHC, cracking move well done, and doesn’t sound like it has cost you your account either

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post
                [U]

                What would you do differently for next years Festival??

                Almost exclusively use Bet365 next time round, wherever possible. Particularly for small stake multi-bets on big priced runners.
                I assume you are a winning punter SW so I'm staggered you retain an unrestricted 365 acc...

                Comment


                • #23
                  What was your best bet? (No monetary figures please) -

                  Backing both BDD and Honeysuckle for the Champion hurdle were my best bets. Unfortunately both failed to get a run (Big mistake on both parts although Honeysuckle connections not so much, as they took the race they went for) Both these horses would have at least placed in the Champion, although I could not be certain they'd have beaten the winner.

                  Worst bet? -

                  Al Dancer - arkle

                  Favourite race of the Festival -

                  This is clearly swayed by winning bets, So the Gold Cup was very enjoyable, although I did enjoy the Marsh chase after being disappointed with the early fall of Itchy Feet who I fancied quite strongly.

                  But to see those horse's fight it out was a credit to connections and no surprise to see Melon run his best race of the season at Cheltenham. Melon ought to be a Champion Chase contender if they think about it properly, but more than likely he'll be stepping up in trip. For Fucks sake it's nothing to do with the trip he just loves Cheltenham.

                  The Bridle Bitch coming good and winning was a remarkable piece of training and whilst the horse will always carry risks attached, he is clearly very good on his day (but not a betting proposition unless he becomes more consistent)

                  Worst race of the Festival?

                  I like them all. Didn't enjoy the Champion Chase though

                  Best Performance? -

                  I thought Geraghty had a brilliant festival and deserved to get the jockey title, rather than Townend. He barely put a foot wrong.


                  Biggest disappointment?

                  Apart from the burst bubble of the Champion Chase, going from best race to worst race. Paisley Park & Tiger Roll getting beaten was a shame.



                  Dark horse for next years Festival? -

                  Probably something that fell, like Itchy Feet or Ridersonthestorm, or one of those from the supreme.


                  Biggest irritation of this years Festival?

                  Min winning the Ryanair irritated me no end



                  Underdog performance of the Festival?

                  Lisnagar Oscar was probably not as big an outsider as many think, I was close to backing him again at the massive prices, as his run in the Cleeve was impressive and he was value on the day. And the trainer has had a lot of horses taken off of her and she is pretty good at what she does with limited resources. I was fortunate to have an any race bet on the horse from very early in the season - as a staying novice chaser below the top ranks lends itself to these types of bets as there are many options available to them. Would have hosed up in the Pertemps you'd imagine.
                  Thyme Hill looks a very similar horse and could be a good bet for the stayers next year.


                  Biggest regret?

                  None that I can think of.
                  Edit - Not backing the Foxhunter winner at 300-1 with B365 after putting it into my betslip and then persuading myself not to bother with any more bets as I'd added a couple of other big priced outsiders already. Would have been a fun watch.


                  What would you do differently for next years Festival??

                  At the moment I'll be betting fuck all. And may only enter the betting ranks when NRNB comes around. Although if things improve i'm sure I'll be putting some antepost bets down before the year is out.
                  Last edited by Quevega; 28 March 2020, 03:39 PM.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Quevega View Post
                    What was your best bet? (No monetary figures please) -

                    Backing both BDD and Honeysuckle for the Champion hurdle were my best bets. Unfortunately both failed to get a run
                    Totally agree that the best bets aren't always winning bets.
                    I've had countless big bets, usually cricket, that were great bets because of the value only to be losers by an act (or two) of idiocy or cheating.
                    Lesson for everyone here, don't assume every losing bet is a bad one...

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Not got round to watching the festival back yet so not done my own analysis and unlikely to do it this weekend now.

                      So off the top of my head on my phone without my lovely spreadsheet to refer to:

                      What was your best bet? (No monetary figures please)

                      Column Of Fire - one of the most satisfying feelings is finding a big priced horse that goes off a lot shorter and it was a decent find regardless of the last flight fall from November 2019.

                      Worst bet?

                      Plenty of these to pick from but Tiger Roll on the day stands out - already had the winner ante post at 20/1, had nothing rolling on so wanted to be part of the elation if he won. 6 pts at 5/6 on the day was not worth doing even if he won either.

                      Favourite race of the Festival

                      Probably the Ryanair, mainly because of Q's post above
                      or maybe the Albert Bartlett - best 4 horses battling it out and I've got a decent punting story out of it too.

                      Worst race of the Festival?

                      Stayers Hurdle, easily. I didn't make a loss on many races at the festival this year (will have to fact check) but this was definitely one. The star didn't perform and my good value bet on Emitom didn't land either... and I usually go each way on all bets but had win only Ronald Pump.

                      Best Performance?

                      Easysland popped into my head then, so him. It wasn't but he could easily end up a festival legend too.

                      Biggest disappointment?

                      Alton Towers.

                      Dark horse for next years Festival?

                      Oh I don't know, of horses that ran...Column Of Fire....handicap plot again I reckon.

                      Biggest irritation of this years Festival?

                      The preview circuit. Partly my own fault for being so consumed all year but I feel like I gain absolutely nothing positive from it now.

                      Underdog performance of the Festival?

                      Barry Geraghty - some bash him at every chance they get... for somebody who is lucky to be in a job, a has-been and whatever else he's been called, I'd say the underdog shut them all up Whoppers.

                      Biggest regret?

                      Cashing out the Bumper winner, again
                      Will expand on it more later but that was just a rash judgement call and not a value call.
                      What would you do differently for next years Festival??

                      I might take the Monday after it off as well... as that is the worst day of the year.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                        Underdog performance of the Festival?

                        Barry Geraghty - some bash him at every chance they get... for somebody who is lucky to be in a job, a has-been and whatever else he's been called, I'd say the underdog shut them all up Whoppers.
                        Absolutely Kev. BJG has had loads of criticism recently and most of it from punters talking through their pocket. I can't remember him giving a horse a poor ride at this year's festival.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          For what it's worth, I am in the Sporting Index box and Barry, as ambassador for SI, takes everyone through the card each day.
                          At midday Thursday he said 'I think my festival is over' and one thing you always get from Barry is honesty, he genuinely thought his three winners on Tue/Wed were his lot so it's safe to assume Sire du Berlais win was a surprise to the yard (given they had the Storyteller) and either he wasn't party to the Saint Roi plot or believed inexperience might find him out.
                          But no getting away from the fact he rode extremely well that week...

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Best Bet - Lucky 15 . - shishkin -25-1 1st.
                            honeysuckle - 2-1. 1st.
                            allmankind - 16-1. 3rd.
                            monkfish - 16-1. 1st.
                            also had a bet on Shishkin - supreme @25-1 , which i accidentally did twice .
                            .................................................. .................................................. .........
                            Worst Bet - Getaway Trump - arkle - say no more !!.
                            .................................................. .............................
                            Favourite race - R.S.A chase for sure . , plenty of great races though.
                            .................................................. ..............................................
                            Worst Race- Stayers hurdle for me , Paisley park disappointing,.
                            and to not have had a bet on L.O after Trials day -.
                            .................................................. .................................................. ..
                            Best Performance - Hard to single one out , But i'll go Al Boum Photo .
                            How many dual gold cup winners have you witnessed ?.
                            .................................................. .................................................. .......
                            Biggest Dissapointment - Paisley park for me .
                            .................................................. .................................................. ...
                            Underdog performance. - Put The Kettle On. , i think we underestimated this one !.
                            .................................................. .................................................. .
                            Biggest Irritation . - Agree with M.o.M - the Starter !.
                            .................................................. ...........................................
                            Dark Horse . - Third time Lucki ??.
                            ..................................................
                            Biggest Regret. - None really , My best Festival , So must be doing it about right .
                            Which is down to this Fantastic Forum . And the different views.
                            Last edited by BigChaang; 29 March 2020, 08:46 AM.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              What was your best bet? (No monetary figures please)

                              Not so much a single bet but a string of 5 winners on Wednesday from 6 races, as didn't back anything in the Cross Country (can 't abide the race from a viewing spectacle).* This meant I was always going to make a profit over the 4 days.

                              Worst bet?

                              Hedging too much on Thursday threw away profit margin by backing extra selections on the day in the Marsh and Ryannair when already had Samcro and Min in the book.

                              Favourite race of the Festival

                              The Albert Bartlett - some classy Novices in there who still managed a speedy looking finish after 3 miles and up that hill.

                              Next best from a punting point of view was the Friday Finale with seemingly everyone's money on the shoulders of Column of Fire. Thanks to Kevloaf we were there from the beginning and it was looking like one of the best ever plans would come to fruition, with a healthy single and a Monkfish double now running as well.* Maybe it was a good thing that this one didnt come in because now we will be trying even harder to find that similar long distance good thing for 2021.

                              Worst race of the Festival?

                              Actually its the last 3 races on Thursday. I don't really like any of them and am looking forward to Friday too much by then.

                              Best Performance?

                              Goshen until he fell. He is a freak and was demolishing that Juvenile field. Very unlucky to get feet caught up together like that as well, to prevent a recovery. Still it gives us a debating point around just how good he for the CH next year.

                              Biggest disappointment?

                              A Plus Tard, not only my biggest winner (yes even more than COF) but I expected him to win the Ryannair comfortably.

                              Dark horse for next years Festival?

                              Not so dark but I think Monkfish oozed class and will progress very nicely. I think Thyme Hill and Santini both got thwarted in running and from this distance are already firmly on my shortlist for the Stayers Hurdle and Gold Cup respectively.

                              Biggest irritation of this years Festival?

                              The ITV coverage on Terrestrial has been dumbed down too much now to appeal to the masses.

                              Underdog performance of the Festival?

                              It's been said already but Barry Geraghty was superb. It wasn't just one tremendous ride on Champ but they just kept on coming. I doubt anyone has had such a collection of really outstanding rides in the same week. Yes others have had plenty of winners but were the individual rides as good...

                              Biggest regret?

                              None really, apart from hedging too much on the day in the Marsh and Ryannair.

                              What would you do differently for next years festival?

                              Throw a few more darts at speculative doubles / trebles. Although my current approach iscgood at finding winners it is based around creating a book for each race and it's not a massive surprise to get a solid if unspectacular return. I intend to reinvest some of that throughout the week on longer priced doubles / trebles spread over the remaining days.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                What was your best bet? (No monetary figures please)


                                No stand outs as Festival was made up of small and medium size winners. Probably steaming into Concertista the day before the race after she was put up by Hugh Taylor. Got a decent amount on and laid a fair bit off the next morning at half the price

                                Worst bet?

                                Nothing obvious springing to mind although see regrets below

                                Favourite race of the Festival

                                Despite not having the winner although feeling confident I would approaching the last, would say the Albert Bartlett was an absolute humdinger and well done those with the 150/1 first 4 slip

                                Worst race of the Festival?

                                Probably the Foxhunters in part because I didn’t really have anything in the race and was the only one I wasn’t able to watch live

                                Best Performance?

                                Easysland was very impressive, ABP and Monkfish

                                Biggest disappointment?

                                Carefully Selected and Paisley Park, very surprised/disappointed that I didn’t get a genuine challenge from either

                                Dark horse for next years Festival?

                                Fakir

                                Biggest irritation of this years Festival?

                                Agree with others for those of us following all year the Preview Circuit really is a pointless pantomime, thought the same last season

                                Underdog performance of the Festival?

                                PTKO and Politigoue - two great front running performances

                                [B]Biggest regret?

                                Did plenty right this year but big two for next year:
                                1) Not be so influenced by horses drifting significantly on the exchange resulting in cash outs
                                2) Very basic, but remember to mix up the early season multis no matter how much I fancy certain horses

                                Comment

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