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  1. #41
    Champion Fat Jockey (Moderator) Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Istabraq View Post
    Fair enough.
    At this stage obviously every race is 3 places 1/5 so no each way value, personally I’m adopting a general policy of win only but each way multis.
    If, in your instance, Darver Star gets to March with a real chance you could always play the place markets.
    All that said, the Arkle is one race where 3 places is the maximum you’ll get even on raceday and there’s every chance there’ll be less than the eight go...
    The race does come in to it for sure. I'm more likely to be win only in the Supreme than the Arkle because of place terms. However so far I've had two pokes at the Supreme both at 40/1. That's mainly because I feel either could end up as short to win as they would be for me in the place market now.




    I wouldn't back anything each way less than 20/1 at the moment, until we get to Christmas (unless I can make a solid case for it being a good idea, which is unlikely).

  2. #42
    Professional Fat Jockey kinloch brae's Avatar
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    Just a quick question on cash outs. My limited experience (some of it painful) has all been with Bet 365.

    Who else offers them and in general have you found Bet 365 to be the most generous?

  3. #43
    Professional Fat Jockey Saxon Warrior's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kinloch brae View Post
    Just a quick question on cash outs. My limited experience (some of it painful) has all been with Bet 365.

    Who else offers them and in general have you found Bet 365 to be the most generous?
    Bet365 are by far the best on antepost racing cashout, KB. They even carried them through until the meeting/races started, which is something no-one else did.

    Betfair and Paddies are the only other players with cashout on antepost racing, which they did up until Festival NRNB came in, when their antepost cashout disappeared.

    Bet365 cashout values are far superior to BFR/PP, who tend to give much lower cashout returns even when the horses have dramatically shortened in price.

    I had a big cashout offer for a Yankee running into the Festival, with 365. I did a lot of analysis of the 11 bets in the Yankee, and the individual horses price collapses, to assess each double, treble and Acca, to determine just how much the bookies offer of cashout reflected the true full cashout for the four horses price drops.

    For the week before the Festival, before the first selection ran the yankee cashout, although big, represented between 40%-45% of the true cashout maths calc.

    So they are doing cashout on these bets to narrow potential losses, but for multi bets like a Festival Yankee, it's still a reasonable offer, when you know that backing two to win out of four is difficult, to get any return.

    I would think (breaking it down) the Acca would be a smaller %age cashout offer, the trebles a better offer and the doubles the biggest cashout offer (as the potential to win is more likely on a double, than a treble or 4-timer).
    Last edited by Saxon Warrior; Yesterday at 01:33 PM.

  4. #44
    Professional Fat Jockey kinloch brae's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saxon Warrior View Post
    Bet365 are by far the best on antepost racing cashout, KB. They even carried them through until the meeting/races started, which is something no-one else did.

    Betfair and Paddies are the only other players with cashout on antepost racing, which they did up until Festival NRNB came in, when their antepost cashout disappeared.

    Bet365 cashout values are far superior to BFR/PP, who tend to give much lower cashout returns even when the horses have dramatically shortened in price.

    I had a big cashout offer for a Yankee running into the Festival, with 365. I did a lot of analysis of the 11 bets in the Yankee, and the individual horses price collapses, to assess each double, treble and Acca, to determine just how much the bookies offer of cashout reflected the true full cashout for the four horses price drops.

    For the week before the Festival, before the first selection ran the yankee cashout, although big, represented between 40%-45% of the true cashout maths calc.

    So they are doing cashout on these bets to narrow potential losses, but for multi bets like a Festival Yankee, it's still a reasonable offer, when you know that backing two to win out of four is difficult, to get any return.

    I would think (breaking it down) the Acca would be a smaller %age cashout offer, the trebles a better offer and the doubles the biggest cashout offer (as the potential to win is more likely on a double, than a treble or 4-timer).
    Thanks for the explanation.

    It doesn't surprise me.

    I was closed down by Paddy Power a while ago and Betfair Sportsbook will rarely allow me to win more than 100, particularly on early prices. They quite often offer pretty ridiculous odds on races I am interested in, presumably in the knowledge they will restrict anyone who isn't clueless to peanuts. I have virtually given up offering them a free steer.

    Despite losing some offers I have always found Bet 365 to be very reasonable.

  5. #45
    Champion Fat Jockey (Moderator) Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Had nothing to add to SW's answer, echo it all.


    Just mentioned on RC's thread, it might be a bad idea to be focussing on 2021 Cheltenham ante post.

    I don't usually use the Aintree/Punchestown formlines much myself though so perhaps not.

    Personally don't feel like punting at the moment anyway. I might take a pull on this ante post diary. Certainly not adding anything until I've rewatched the festival back though. Which I was planning to do this weekend, that might re-light the fire...




  6. #46
    Professional Fat Jockey Saxon Warrior's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Had nothing to add to SW's answer, echo it all.


    Just mentioned on RC's thread, it might be a bad idea to be focussing on 2021 Cheltenham ante post.

    I don't usually use the Aintree/Punchestown formlines much myself though so perhaps not.

    Personally don't feel like punting at the moment anyway. I might take a pull on this ante post diary. Certainly not adding anything until I've rewatched the festival back though. Which I was planning to do this weekend, that might re-light the fire...



    There’s always the Virtual Grand National at 5pm on ITV on Saturday, for a tenner max.

  7. #47
    Professional Fat Jockey (Moderator) Istabraq's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Had nothing to add to SW's answer, echo it all.


    Just mentioned on RC's thread, it might be a bad idea to be focussing on 2021 Cheltenham ante post.

    I don't usually use the Aintree/Punchestown formlines much myself though so perhaps not.

    Personally don't feel like punting at the moment anyway. I might take a pull on this ante post diary. Certainly not adding anything until I've rewatched the festival back though. Which I was planning to do this weekend, that might re-light the fire...



    I think the festival will always be the target Kev, every trainer that gets his gun horses back in July/August will be working towards March but the complication next season comes from re-scheduled big races that were lost this season.
    I was surprised by Irelands decision to try and get the Irish National and some Punchestown races early in the 2020/21 schedule, this can/will have a big impact on how National horses are trained and it may be some horses are brought back early and given a break in Dec/Jan, though the Christmas festivals and Dublin RF will need to be considered here.

    Ultimately I have no concerns with my festival investments, but if the BHA decide to squeeze in the likes of the Whitbread, Swinton and any other lost jewels I’d think twice before considering a Hennessy, King George etc interest...

  8. #48
    Champion Fat Jockey (Moderator) Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Yeah I just mean it'll be harder to find any value in next years festival as we've got less to go on that normal!

    I know the trainers will target the festival.



    I'm going to take a pull, I'm bored of it all at the moment Not enough to think about and not enough benefit in working it out



    Pokerstars has been installed.....

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