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  1. #31
    Professional Fat Jockey billymag's Avatar
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    Probably wont be a popular view, but i wonder if EA was taken to a place he didnt like very much when winning the Ballymore, he had to be dragged down in front of the crowd, cud it be he was exhausted?? Im certainly not of the opinion that he wants 3 miles on what weve seen so far, so I think the Marsh suggestion is very solid. Ill be looking to take him on if he runs beyond 2m 5f

  2. #32
    Professional Fat Jockey Humble Pie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post


    Looks like others don't agree elsewhere on the forum ... but let's stick to our guns
    Diversity of opinion is what makes this site what it is

    Great double IMO

  3. #33
    Apprentice Fat Jockey (3lb claim) Geegees's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by billymag View Post
    Probably wont be a popular view, but i wonder if EA was taken to a place he didnt like very much when winning the Ballymore, he had to be dragged down in front of the crowd, cud it be he was exhausted?? Im certainly not of the opinion that he wants 3 miles on what weve seen so far, so I think the Marsh suggestion is very solid. Ill be looking to take him on if he runs beyond 2m 5f
    Personally I don’t think it was as much as a hard race as it would have needed to be to take something out of him. I do think staying at the marsh distance will definitely benefit and aid with his development

    I think he has shown some good battling qualities in the bumper, royal bond and now the ballymoore. I think he is a pretty solid horse

  4. #34
    Champion Fat Jockey (Moderator) Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Added 1 pt e/w on Captain Guinness for the Arkle whilst he's 25/1 with 365.

    I'll be making a book in this race again, I made no secret of the fact I thought the Supreme would come too soon for in his career but given the level he's shown already despite a lack of experience he is easy to make a case for being towards the top of the novice chasing ranks.

    I like the fact HdB had the favourite for the race this year and won it with a different horse anyway to.

    Captain Guinness will not be under the radar, he'll be the kind of horse on everybodies radar as a horse to take out of the Supreme and coupled with the notion (often over played) that Henry De Bromhead is a great trainer of chasers I can only see his price being shorter than it perhaps should be.

    I feel like 25/1 now is as big than he'll ever be...

  5. #35
    Champion Fat Jockey (Moderator) Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevloaf View Post
    Best price 33/1

    4L behind Envoi Allen
    0.5L behind Honeysuckle

    Went off 17/2 in a Champion Hurdle.


    Have to admit I'm tempted to add him in the Arkle with PP (who do offer cash out).
    Similar to the bet above.... will be making a book in the Arkle and 33/1 is as big as I think he'll be at any stage.


    PP offering the cash out very important though this far out.


    1.25 pts e/w 33/1 Darver Star

  6. #36
    Professional Fat Jockey (Moderator) Istabraq's Avatar
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    Kev - have you ever done any analysis of your AP book and whether the each way approach this far out pays off ?

  7. #37
    Champion Fat Jockey (Moderator) Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Istabraq View Post
    Kev - have you ever done any analysis of your AP book and whether the each way approach this far out pays off ?
    I have and I was better off each way than I would have been win only for 2017 and 2018 so carried on. (or 16/17 can't remember exactly)



    I'll look at it again from this years results when I get round to doing them though to check.




    Personally I aim to get paid out on 1st, 2nd and 3rd in every race and am disappointed when I don't.

    This stat is a little skewed as I made a book for some of the races but I had the 1-2-3 in every race on the Tuesday, bar Benie Des Dieux who I hadn't backed each way... so for me it makes sense with the amount I back....

    but I will check again

  8. #38
    Professional Fat Jockey (Moderator) Istabraq's Avatar
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    Fair enough.
    At this stage obviously every race is 3 places 1/5 so no each way value, personally I’m adopting a general policy of win only but each way multis.
    If, in your instance, Darver Star gets to March with a real chance you could always play the place markets.
    All that said, the Arkle is one race where 3 places is the maximum you’ll get even on raceday and there’s every chance there’ll be less than the eight go...

  9. #39
    Professional Fat Jockey kinloch brae's Avatar
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    Sorry, if someone has already asked this but in terms of betting strategy at this stage are you first and foremost betting on horses you can cash out a profit on (you don't think it will be a bigger price) rather than horses who you see as strong chances of winning races? If I am reading it correctly at some stage there is a crossover in the thought process?

  10. #40
    Champion Fat Jockey (Moderator) Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kinloch brae View Post
    Sorry, if someone has already asked this but in terms of betting strategy at this stage are you first and foremost betting on horses you can cash out a profit on (you don't think it will be a bigger price) rather than horses who you see as strong chances of winning races? If I am reading it correctly at some stage there is a crossover in the thought process?
    Somewhere in between.

    I don't and won't ever place a bet on a horse with the sole purpose of cashing it out if it shortens for a profit. (Accounts wouldn't last long enough to make that worthwhile).

    The ideal scenario for example, in the Arkle would be something like; a 6 runner field, all at 20/1+ backed each way.


    The ones I've backed now I think will be shorter before their seasonal debuts, with the hope being if the bomb out or I'm not impressed I cash them out for no loss or a tiny loss. If they shorten, good. If they shorten and I like them, great.


    If they shorten, I will keep hold and then the crossover will come between Christmas, the DRF, NRNB and the few weeks before the festival, where I'll assess the positions I have compared to the horses I think will win.

    I adjust in most cases, I let things run in others - not got a hard and fast rule on that and it depends on non runners, likely runners etc.



    Before Daver Star, Pic D'Orhy, Captain Guinness or Shishkin run I'd say I fancied Shishkin the most, but I'd rather do this strategy and be wrong initally and still profit from the race as my opinion inevitably will change after I see them race.

    There is plenty more to it, but that's a general idea.
    Last edited by Kevloaf; 30th March 2020 at 10:21 PM.

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