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Cheltenham Gold Cup 2020

LIT is 5/1 (beat BDM 1.5L)
Al Boum Photo is 8/1 (beat BDM 6.25L)


On the line through Bristol De Mai, Al Boum Photo is a better bet.


The BDM is a better horse at Haydock theory may be true, but wasn't in quantifiable evidence yesterday?






Just something I'd ponder if approaching this race fresh.

The assumed improvement for LIT and the fact ABP hasn't run yet are factored into those prices aren't they.
 
LiT was my early stab at the gold cup like a few on here, but i wouldnt go overboard whatsoever on that performance yesterday. BDM has gone nowhere near quick enough in front to make it enough of a test. I dont think Daryl Jacob has ever been great from the front end. He had Native River to push him along last year. The KG is shaping up to be a fascinating race
 
Kevloaf said:
LIT is 5/1 (beat BDM 1.5L)
Al Boum Photo is 8/1 (beat BDM 6.25L)


On the line through Bristol De Mai, Al Boum Photo is a better bet.


The BDM is a better horse at Haydock theory may be true, but wasn't in quantifiable evidence yesterday?






Just something I'd ponder if approaching this race fresh.

The assumed improvement for LIT and the fact ABP hasn't run yet are factored into those prices aren't they.
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Al boum will now be my sole hope this year. If I could cash DW, for my free bets back, i would.
I see no reason why ABP cant do the double. He doesn't have the miles on the clock like previous winners, I'd fancy him as a fresh horse to out battle kemboy and LIT. As Al boum finds plenty of the bridle.
 
TC2 said:
LiT was my early stab at the gold cup like a few on here, but i wouldnt go overboard whatsoever on that performance yesterday. BDM has gone nowhere near quick enough in front to make it enough of a test. I dont think Daryl Jacob has ever been great from the front end. He had Native River to push him along last year. The KG is shaping up to be a fascinating race
Click to expand...

Just to back that up, yesterday Lostintranslation was 1.1 sec slower than Crievehill in the handicap chase (won by 10l carrying 11-12).
 
As the season goes on it may become clear that Bristol is not the same horse this year and is in decline. So an impressive betfair chase win means he is entitled to be considered a contender now for the gold cup but the form may turn out to not be as strong as it first appears.
Im sure Elegant Escape would have won that race had he taken part however.
 
Kevloaf said:
LIT is 5/1 (beat BDM 1.5L)
Al Boum Photo is 8/1 (beat BDM 6.25L)


On the line through Bristol De Mai, Al Boum Photo is a better bet.
Click to expand...

Fairly standard response from bookmakers when a horse runs well and one is sitting in his box.

There's an argument Anabale Fly represents even better value at 33/1...
 
Lostintranslation did win over 3M1&1/2F at Haydock. I would imagine that there aren’t many Second Season chasers that have put up an RPR of 177 before the end of November at the start of their second season.

RPRs of Gold Cup winners and their best rating when lining up in their Gold Cup win.
Al Boum Photo 178 to win the Gold Cup in 2019 (171 best before it)
Native River 177 to win the Gold Cup In 2018 (174 best before it)
Sizing John 171 to win the Gold Cup In 2017 (168 best before it)
Don Cossack 182 to win the Gold Cup In 2016 (181 best before it)
Coneygree 178 to win the Gold Cup In 2015 (168 best before it)
Lord Windermere 168 to win the Gold Cup In 2014 (157 best before it)
Bobs Worth 179 to win the Gold Cup In 2013 (174 best before it)
Synchronised 171 to win the Gold Cup In 2012 (171 best before it)

On these figures he is already good enough after one run in open company (after his graduation race start this season) to win the Gold Cup with little or no improvement. He would start the race with a better rating than any of the previous eight race winners barring Don Cossack.

I wouldn’t have anything in front of him in the market for the Gold Cup.
 
We all only use RPRs to prove a case when we're short of other arguments.

Given Tellwright's record, I'd want notarised proof of the race distance but Haydock's demands are nothing like Cheltenham. Lostintranslation is worth his place at the top of the market because people are of a mind to accept the price 14 weeks ahead of time. Surely, no-one would claim that his is the best form on offer, merely the best this season so far. If Kemboy and Al Boum Photo are as impressive on reappearance, will they be 3/1 as well?
 
Why quote 3/1 when there's 5/1 and plenty of 9/2 available.

"We all only use the shortest price to prove a case when we're short of other arguments" :devilish:
 
:highly_amused:
 
I quoted 3/1 because it was in a media article. I haven't looked at Oddschecker but the argument is the same at 9/2 this far out.

Whatever way you look at it, LIT still has something to find on form with the Mullins pair. He may well do but, as it stands, he is a false price.
 
Is anyone "fresh" in this market at the moment?

I've got two backed with real money. Presenting Percy at 22/1 and Delta Work at 25/1

I also have had some 'flyers' with free bets on A Plus Tard (busted), Santini at 14/1 which I am honestly appauled at - have no idea what I was thinking in April! and Footpad (50/1) that looks okay.



So I feel like I am fairly fresh with that being the case, and boring as it is, I just don't think this is a market lending itself to ante post betting still? Just going down the oddschecker list....

Al Boum Photo 8/1 and Kemboy 7/1 are bigger prices and have better form last season than Lostintranslation 5/1 (so I'd consider them better bets at the moment) however you anticipate LIT will absolutely be able to get to their level - making none of them particularly enticing as bets now relative to the each other?

Santini is 12/1 which still assumes the Gold Cup is and will be THE perfect set of circumstances for him. No chance I'd back him now though based on what I've seen. It's definitely not a value bet.

Presenting Percy - I have already backed as I said above but 16/1 isn't exactly a wild price on him. I like him, but definitely understand this season he has a helluva lot to prove.

Delta Work 20/1 is not going to get anyone rushing to back him after his reappearance. He's one that could potentially shorten again, and I suppose relative to Santini he's not a bad bet.... but Santini is a bad bet so therefore DW can be left.

Clan Des Obeaux 25/1 is a little bit forgotten but you'd have to be inclined to think he may struggle to retain his KG crown and other horses will be better suited to Cheltenham than he is?

Native River 25/1 surely is going for the National this year, Tiger Roll 25/1 won't get anyones cash. At 33/1 there is Benie Des Dieux who is going for a 2m4f hurdle races, Anibale Fly who has place claims again but will be a big price for months yet and Vinndication who although I really like, has a much bigger leap to find that 33/1 allows for. There is also Footpad who I could see ending up here, but with the Ryanair a feasible and likely other option I couldn't back now with confidence.


The only one i've left out so far is Cyrname who at 20/1 isn't the most ridiculous bet in the world now? He's definitely going for the King George, of which he's 5/2f. The big question mark is whether the track will be okay. 2 reasons for that:- it's not flat and it's left handed.

If he wins the King George they will have to have a go at this? So I might have a look for the KG/GC double for him......




Not exactly a thrilling betting event this point in the season? Fantastic race to look forward to though.... :)
 
And no offence taken, LIT.
 
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I'd say that Kev is about right in his summation. I think it was about this time last year that some of us came up with an alternative book and it sort of proved the point that laying prices are very different from backing prices and individual attitudes to betting cover the full spectrum.
This far out, I still couldn't persuade myself that any single figure price is value in the win singles market. It's not unreasonable to say that the eventual winner is likely to come from the top 4 in the market but the old 'will they turn up on the day?' question is too much of a factor right now.
 
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For me if nothing is standing out then may be not a bad thing just to stick with what you know, in this case Al Boum Photo. He and LIT are the only 2 I am currently interested in for cash bets anyway. Both will be added in the near future even if just free bets for now.
 
They are nearly all priced potentially lower than they would be on the day, or in the run up.
Although if one of the two Fav's for the KG win that, then they would be shorter.

So Cyrname is possibly value, although he beat just the one horse yesterday (it looked solid enough form)
Even though I'd expect Altior to be unplaced in the KG.
Don't buy the left handed thing either.
He was average which ever way he ran until three runs ago. So that theory is a little skewed IMO.

Although I'm against him on age grounds.
I may cover OK Corral before he runs next week (assuming he does).
Just on price alone at 66-1.
Chris's Dream has been backed in to 25's in places for winning the troytown ??

I think Henderson's hand is becoming weaker for this race, and JP has not got a real contender (aside from the running on Anibale Fly)
Santini has to run better than last time or they'll shelve Gold cup plans for him.
Kind of still hoping Champ absolutely batters a good field next week, and they start getting ambitious with him. They won't though.
 
Kevloaf said:
LIT is 5/1 (beat BDM 1.5L)
Al Boum Photo is 8/1 (beat BDM 6.25L)


On the line through Bristol De Mai, Al Boum Photo is a better bet.


The BDM is a better horse at Haydock theory may be true, but wasn't in quantifiable evidence yesterday?






Just something I'd ponder if approaching this race fresh.

The assumed improvement for LIT and the fact ABP hasn't run yet are factored into those prices aren't they.
Click to expand...

agree with the ABP bet Kev, LIT was very impressive yesterday granted. For any 'time' fans that race yesterday was a second slower than the handicap over the same distance and 5 seconds slower than last year's GC. I do have LIT covered at 9s but ABP is still my one for this.
 
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