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  1. #61
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) kinloch brae's Avatar
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    Running in the wrong race take three.

    We have had Envoi Allen, Asterion Forlonge and now it seems step forward Copperhead. Apparently, O'Connor and Codd want the ride. Are the Tizzard's completely bonkers? Still as long as they help Segal chalk up another loser.

    Nothing further added on the handicap front. I have considered Thatsy and Musical Slave. Thatsy was outpaced in a slowly run race last time but I am not sure he really wants much more than two and a quarter, particularly on soft ground. The County might be a better fit than the Coral Cup/Martin Pipe. Not sure what was going on with Musical Slave last time at Haydock. He stayed on nicely once the front two had gone clear. Perhaps he also might be better suited by somewhere between two and a half and three. Very unlikely he will get into the Ultima so the Brown Advisory might be the better of his other two entries.

  2. #62
    Professional Fat Jockey Saxon Warrior's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kinloch brae View Post
    Running in the wrong race take three.

    We have had Envoi Allen, Asterion Forlonge and now it seems step forward Copperhead. Apparently, O'Connor and Codd want the ride. Are the Tizzard's completely bonkers? Still as long as they help Segal chalk up another loser.

    Nothing further added on the handicap front. I have considered Thatsy and Musical Slave. Thatsy was outpaced in a slowly run race last time but I am not sure he really wants much more than two and a quarter, particularly on soft ground. The County might be a better fit than the Coral Cup/Martin Pipe. Not sure what was going on with Musical Slave last time at Haydock. He stayed on nicely once the front two had gone clear. Perhaps he also might be better suited by somewhere between two and a half and three. Very unlikely he will get into the Ultima so the Brown Advisory might be the better of his other two entries.
    KB,
    I watched all Musical Slave’s hurdle and chase replies this afternoon, very interesting horse to fit in somewhere, maybe the Plate, it’s a big step up in trip for Kim Muir (+5F).

  3. #63
    Stable Fat Jockey mayo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saxon Warrior View Post
    KB,
    I watched all Musical Slave’s hurdle and chase replies this afternoon, very interesting horse to fit in somewhere, maybe the Plate, it’s a big step up in trip for Kim Muir (+5F).
    133 going to be a struggle to get in anything

  4. #64
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) kinloch brae's Avatar
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    Only one bet today, West Cork each way so no damage done. At that trip he needs the field to come back to him and sadly one of them didn't.

    If you can jump and the jock can judge the pace then the front end is invariably the place to be and that's how it played out in several races.

    Solo won very well but I wouldn't have him any better than third favourite for the Triumph. I think the front two set a pretty good standard. Aspire Tower is the one that is much too short after his last run.

    Downtown Getaway took advantage of track position in the opener (seemed to set a dawdle) and the second is probably the better prospect going forward. The Festival prices will have gone and both had hard enough races.

    I presume Harry Cobden wished he had held on to Diego Du Charmil just a bit longer. He travelled like the best horse in a very ordinary renewal.

    Boothill's win in the last was a boost for Fiston Des Issards, another big money purchase for Elliott. Ballymissy shaped very nicely and shouldn't have too much trouble in winning staying novice hurdles next season.

    Over at Fairyhouse Hook Up was the eyecatcher in the juvenile hurdle. She made a sweeping move round the outside but it was no surprise that she couldn't sustain the run in straight.

    Glad to have cashed out on Ferny Hollow. He may have eventually beaten a moderate bunch on the bridle today but it must be pretty short odds that he will down tools when he comes under pressure in a better race. All very strange because presumably none of these negatives came to light when he won his point.

  5. #65
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) kinloch brae's Avatar
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    Just checked the Coral Cup prices and bit surprised so added:-

    CORAL CUP

    PALMERS HILL 33/1 EW

    Not a horse who takes a lot of racing but if he gets a few pounds for today it will give him a fair chance of getting in. If the first and second from today reoppose then I would be more than hopeful of the placings being reversed. The winner has no course form.

  6. #66
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) kinloch brae's Avatar
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    Perhaps I should have looked at the Martin Pipe betting first?

    Mistakenly, I always look at that race as a target for novices who are not good enough for the graded races, not horses who have been running in handicap hurdles for two years.

  7. #67
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) kinloch brae's Avatar
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    Added:-

    ULTIMA

    Discorama 20/1 NRNBG EW

    Good Festival record and appeals as much anything in a field likely to include plenty of deadwood. Only entry.

  8. #68
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) kinloch brae's Avatar
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    Added:-

    KIM MUIR

    Fitzhenry 14/1 EW

    Gone for the Paul Nolan hat trick and taken a punt that this is a better fit for him than the Ultima. He is clearly not the most straightforward but he is a very accurate jumper and if he teams up with O'Connor it is not that hard to see him creeping and producing him as late as possible.

  9. #69
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) kinloch brae's Avatar
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    Two weeks out time for a little taking stock exercise:-

    SUPREME

    Looking like no runners. I would take both Envoi Allen and Cedarwood Road over any these but sadly that means nothing if they don't line up. Even if the first day ground was heavy (not completely out of the question) I think there is too much riding (bets?) on Envoi Allen running in the Ballymore. It was a shame Cedarwood Road missed his prep twice but it was perhaps always likely he was being aimed at Punchestown. (UNEXCEPTED - NON RUNNER)

    ARKLE

    Notebook remains the one to beat. Gallops and jumps just a case of whether something will find a gear to pick him up. He was strong at the finish last time and I don't see him stopping. Bit surprised that Fanion D'Estruval hasn't reverted to hurdles. He will do well to jump round. (MELON - NON RUNNER)

    ULTIMA

    Discorama with his course form looks as solid as anything. (JERRYSBACK - NRNB)

    CHAMPION HURDLE

    If Coeur Sublime is able to reproduce his seasonal debut as a result of the wind surgery then he might well be the current value. Not totally given up on Not So Sleepy but the Betfair was a disaster.

    MARES

    No bet. Would take Honeysuckle over the favourite. She is likely to provide much stiffer opposition than Roksana did last year. Two horse race and fingers crossed neither drops out to produce another walkover.

    NOVICE HANDICAP

    No bet. (MYTH BUSTER - NON RUNNER)

    NATIONAL HUNT CHASE

    I read Dave Jennings suggesting that Copperhead would be third favourite for the RSA so he should go that route. Well Dave he would be favourite if he went here. Work that one out.

    BALLYMORE

    Looking like it will be Sporting John and Envoi Allen. I would be more than hopeful that Sporting John will turn over the favourite. At this trip the favourite is vulnerable and I think he will drift. Asterion Forlonge would have his chance in this race. (LATEST EXHIBITION - CASHED OUT, ANDY DUFRESNE - NON RUNNER)

    RSA

    Minella Indo. A class act on his win in the Albert Bartlett but I do have my doubts about whether his jumping is sharp enough.

    CORAL CUP

    Flashthesteel and Palmers Hill. I think both would have decent chances in this but the market suggests they are both heading for the Martin Pipe.

    QUEEN MOTHER

    No bet. Looks a straight fight between Defi Du Seuil and Altior. I would like to see Altior win again.

    CROSS COUNTRY

    No bet. Tiger Roll by far the best horse in the race and the jockey on the second favourite looks a huge negative.

    FRED WINTER

    Saint D'Oroux. In all likelihood beat not very much on soft ground to get in. Each-way chance but it's the sort of race nobody could be too confident about.

    BUMPER

    (FERNY HOLLOW/POWER OF PAUSE - CASHED OUT)

    MARSH

    Itchy Feet. No good thing but looks the solid one at the head of the market. Brewinupastorm unlikely to go.

    PERTEMPS

    Phoenix Way, Skandiburg and One For The Team. This looks as if it might be an above average renewal. Very happy with my three, particularly the last two named.

    RYANAIR

    A Plus Tard and Riders Onthe Storm. This has always looked a good fit for A Plus Tard and I will be disappointed if he doesn't win. Riders Onthe Storm probably left whatever chance he had behind at Ascot.

    STAYERS

    No bet. Paisley Park should win.

    BROWN ADVISORY

    Simply The Betts. Has his chance and hopefully he will be somewhere on the front end avoiding any possible trouble.

    MARES NOVICE

    Colreevy. Not much hope unless she can dramatically sharpen up her jumping. (MARIE'S ROCK - NON RUNNER)

    KIM MUIR

    Fitzhenry - Just have a feeling a match up with O'Connor might just unlock the door.

    TRIUMPH

    Allmankind. Has Goshen to beat but has the advantage of course form and he might also have a slight class edge.

    COUNTY

    Eglantine Du Seuil. Course form and showed a rare change of pace last time. Clearly best at two miles and given luck in running she could go close.

    ALBERT BARTLETT

    Latest Exhibition and Thyme Hill. Much prefer Latest Exhibition. Just concerned about the jumping. Don't think you can go lazy on him. He will come if you ask. (DINNY LACEY - NON RUNNER)

    GOLD CUP

    Delta Work. Given his campaign in taking in two competitive races I would like to see him do it. Disappointed Kennedy is not on board.

    FOXHUNTER

    No bet. Shocking race.

    GRAND ANNUAL

    Greaneteen. Will probably be well handicapped but the big question is whether he will cope with the cavalry charge.

    MARTIN PIPE

    Pileon. Hopefully, goes here with Ben Jones on board.


    If I don't do too much damage on the first two days then hopefully things will improve as the week goes on. Fingers crossed.

  10. #70
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) kinloch brae's Avatar
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    Added:-

    NOVICE HANDICAP

    Annie Mc 20/1 EW

    Hopefully, she goes here rather than sticking to her own sex. Will be at the head of the weights but she could well be the class act in a race where there will only be a small weight range. The big field may also show her to better advantage than the small fields she has been running in. Obviously, the potential downside would be the jock dropping her out too far back.

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