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  1. #1
    Professional Fat Jockey Middle_Of_March's Avatar
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    MOM's racing preview - Cheltenham Festival 2020 - Day 3

    11th March 2020. A day I won’t be forgetting in a hurry. For months, anybody who asked was told the same answer to the question ‘what is your best bet for Cheltenham?’ – ‘Envoi Allen. I’m on at 10s’. The closer we got, the more nervous I was but what a performance. What a boyo. What a weapon. The way he picked up to close the gap in the ten seconds before they jumped the last was astonishing. The roar as he flew the last and the scenes unfolding across 70,000 delirious punters was a genuine wow moment that will live with me forever. To have had 10/1 on him and then Champ for the RSA straight after was a wonderful hour. I have plenty of good bets tomorrow although a Samcro win for a couple of free bet multiples would be absolute scenes. We shall see..

    1:30 – Marsh Novice Chase (Grade 1)
    Samcro coming here was a pleasant surprise to the antepost books but I would still be surprised if he was good enough to win against some quality novices. His ability to travel into a race is huge but to win at Cheltenham, he will need to start producing more off the bridle than he has of late if wanting to reproduce that Ballymore win of 2018. Faugheen will be popular with the punters but a 12 year old, even one as brilliant as Faugheen, winning a Grade 1 novice chase at the festival is not something that sounds at all likely and goes against every trend there is you would think. That isn’t to say he can’t win though and I will be utilising the offers available to get a couple in the book as savers to the Samcro multiple. Another of those, Mister Fisher is the other one I have antepost and he has a good chance if improving again on his latest win over course and distance. Nicky Henderson has had a fine festival so far and if turning in contention, can utilise his turn of foot to perfection up the hill. The selection however is for Grade 1 winner ITCHY FEET (9/2). He oozed class in the Scilly Isles and came back on the bridle even after blundering two out in the style of a good horse. To the kick on up the Sandown hill how he did suggested to me that Cheltenham would be his bag. When you consider how he finished in last year’s Supreme, he should relish this test and the ground will suit. At 9/2, I make him a really solid bet to kick off proceedings for Cheltenham 2020 – day three.

    2:10 – Pertemps Final
    Sire Du Berlais landed a gamble last year to win this despite being off the bridle at the top of the hill and carries top weight this year in his bid for the double. Gordon Elliott also saddles THE STORYTELLER (11/2) who snuck into this with an eyecatching Davy Russell ride in 6th in his qualifier. I took 15/1 immediately after that race and make him the clear one to beat. He has won previously at this meeting over fences and must go close. Dingo Dollar and Unowhatimeanharry are both 50/1 but have had big days previously with the latter lumbering 11st 10lb. Skandiburg won well last time over course and distance but was only narrowly ahead of RAPPER (25/1) who can reverse the form. He is still unexposed as a stayer and can dictate of the front by Richard Johnson. My last bet in a wide open renewal is RELEGATE (7/1) who won the Champion Bumper but has struggled for fitness since. She should be spot on for this based on her reappearance and is the final one of my three against the field.

    2:50 – Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)
    I have some nice prices about MIN (11/4) here with him being set for this almost as soon as he completed last year at Aintree. He will have the tactical pace when things start heating up and ought to be shorter in my view. A Plus Tard dotted up in the Novice Handicap last season and beat Chacun Pour Soi earlier this year. That form makes him favourite. Frodon delivered a popular result last season in the race but hasn’t been as good this season as last year whilst Riders On the Storm has won all three start this season and is seemingly still improving. Aso may be the best of the rest in a competitive renewal.

    3:30 – Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1)
    As an Emitom fan with a 50/1 each way bet, I go into the race with just hope rather than confidence. He did look good at Haydock last time though and can put it up to the imperious PAISLEY PARK (4/6). The defending champ has proven himself superior to all of these and 4/6 isn’t the worst price in my view. He probably ought to be at least ½ for this since he has beaten the majority already this year over course and distance and hasn’t lost a race in two seasons. City Island is the only other one worth mentioning in a race that ought to be a formality really. Emitom at 22/1 in the ‘without Paisley Park market is the best value of the day for me antepost...

    4:10 – Brown Plate
    One of the best bets of the card in my view now with SIMPLY THE BETTS (7/2) tasked with landing a plunge that many of us are on. Imperial Aura franked the form on Tuesday with a win with a battle between the pair over here in November looking red-hot. On that form line, he is now into 7/2 best price and the punters might just keep coming for him. Deyrann de Carjac has had the late money whilst Ben Dundee rarely runs a bad race. Oldgrangewood is an improver this season but this is a tougher task. Mister Whitaker was poor last time and Happy Diva needs to prove herself with carrying 11st 4lb. Siruh Du Lac goes in search of back to back wins but isn’t in the same vein of form that won the race last year. The clear bet for me is Simply The Betts who I think might just be too good for his mark.

    4:50 – Mares Novice
    FLORESSA (7/1) ran a good race last time but was outclassed by Lady Buttons. She ought to improve again back against novices and holds every chance. Her turn of foot is decisive and she is taken to beat Minella Melody up the hill. Willie Mullins has won every renewal of this race and saddles four here with Dolcita likely his best chance in my view with Concertista a placed horse in this last year too. The money has come for the latter with her shortening from 10/1 into 9/2 at the time of writing. Colreevy and Ard Abhainn aren’t ruled out with many in with chances in a race that will require plenty of luck in running.

    5:30 – Kim Muir Handicap
    Kilfilum Cross was the subject of a huge gamble in this last year when finishing second off 1lb more so ought to run well again. Champagne Platinum has been disssapointing over fences but has always been highly regarded by connections. If they can get him right, he would probably have too much class for them here carrying 11st 5lb. LE BREUIL (7/1) was given a masterful ride by today’s pilot Jamie Codd to win at this meeting last year and is a huge positive in these amateur jockey races. If getting back to his best, he’d have to go close. PLAN OF ATTACK (11/1) is my other main dart in the race and has been kept fresh since running third in the Paddy Power at Christmas for this and has to go close. I have 25/1 on Fitzhenry for this from ages ago and he will get his head in front in a race like this soon and has Patrick Mullins on his back which is a help to his chances. FLYING ANGEL (40/1) is a small each way play as his consistency is respected for a race of this nature and could place again.

  2. #2
    Stable Fat Jockey mayo's Avatar
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    Need some cover for a decent multiple running onto the storyteller. Added the Rapper. Dont like Relegates jumping,

  3. #3
    Stable Fat Jockey (Moderator) ComplyOrDie's Avatar
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    I backed Flying Angel for the Ultima, so only fair I went in on him for the KM too.

    I think he has a fair E/W shout myself too. Drifted since opening prices yesterday though, which is a worry.

  4. #4
    Professional Fat Jockey Middle_Of_March's Avatar
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    Samcro lands the multiples!

    The good thing STB hoses up and Min wins for those of us on virtually all year.

    Just about one of the best days at a racecourse ever, narrowly beating yesterday.

  5. #5
    Fat Jockey (speaks confidently & with clarity) Splinterboy82's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Middle_Of_March View Post
    Samcro lands the multiples!

    The good thing STB hoses up and Min wins for those of us on virtually all year.

    Just about one of the best days at a racecourse ever, narrowly beating yesterday.
    An amazing day MOM!!! Just got into bed & still buzzing!!! Loads of decent roll-ups onto tomorrow all concluding with COF in the last......few hours sleep & back on the black stuff

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