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  1. #1
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) robith's Avatar
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    State of the Nation: 2 Months to Go

    This was an idea for a thread I had a while back but COD's post in the ante post thread made me revisit it as it's (just under) 2 months to go. We could even maybe revisit one month out. The idea is a forum for broader discussion over specific bets and perhaps even discussion on strategy

    So let's discuss:

    - How are you feeling about the festival?

    - How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

    - Where are you strong?

    - Where are you weak?

    - Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

    - How will you be watching?

  2. #2
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) robith's Avatar
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    I've got to pop out to get my lunch cos I hate queuing but I'll have my response up shortly

  3. #3
    Fat Jockey (ridden out claim) robith's Avatar
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    How are you feeling about the festival?

    Good i think. I got into racing around the start of Faugheen/Vautor's origins and for years I felt it was easy - just stack the right Mullins hotpots early enough and off we go. 2017 therefore was a big wake up call to me to consider value, horses being overpriced and not just rigidly believing my own thoughts etc. So I always have a bit of trepidation but I do think I have a broader base to look at.

    Race wise however it looks a lacklustre year. Lot of championship divisions look weak af

    - How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

    ok - i've tried to do fewer multiples this year which means my exposure is lower (last two years antepost multis have mostly maimed my bottom line ) but I don't have much of the woohoo of being sat on a life changer


    - Where are you strong?

    Like everyone here I've got the good prices on Envoi and Abra. Fond of my RSA bets. Have used the any race market well so far

    - Where are you weak?

    Novice hurdles but then it's a rough year so far for those and I'm mostly sticking to my guns and picking a wild one on the day for Potato race.

    My arkle bets....yeesh...a real mess in there

    - Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

    Massively reduced my exposure on multis, and used free bets for these as much as possible. Currently means that any two horses I currently have back would leave my whole outlay in profit which is a nice feeling, though obvs not as exciting

    - How will you be watching?

    Hoping to get taken day one on some hospitality which I've been putting the ground work in for for a while (I got taken to the Roux Restaurant last year, very agreeable). Friday I'm getting an early train to Paris for the rugby over the weekend. Hoping this is a positive as Friday is rarely my strongest day and hoping having to have money day night before will keep me disciplined - doubt my wife would care for us sitting in some fancy 11e natural wine bar while I watch on my phone!

  4. #4
    Professional Fat Jockey jack1092's Avatar
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    -Excited as always. Intrigued especially with the novice hurdlers this year.
    -Pretty content, i don't go hell for leather antepost-i probably should've stuck to my guns earlier in the year and tried making books in certain races like Kev + Quevega sort of have. Lazy.
    - Probably strongest in Mares Novice at prices anyway. As i haven't backed lots of horses in the same races, the result of the race will tell me haha.
    - Champion Hurdle- Early anteposts on Klassical Dream haven't worked.
    - Not a lot different from normal, had intended to change slightly but haven't.
    - Mainly from the pubs. Possibly a day in work, we will see!

  5. #5
    Professional Fat Jockey BigChaang's Avatar
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    I just read C.O.D's post , feel a little bit the same .
    But Actually i feel like i'm in a fairly good position .
    I'd say strong in Ch hurdle , R.S.A and Gold cup.
    Weak in the Champion chase , Only had a couple of speculators till last week.
    More single's this year , Less Multi's - Still time though .
    Be there Tues , wednesday and fri maybe?.
    Last edited by BigChaang; 14th January 2020 at 01:23 PM.

  6. #6
    Professional Fat Jockey (and self-proclaimed Voice of Reason) Quevega's Avatar
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    How are you feeling about the festival?

    I'm already not sleeping well and running races through in my mind at five in the morning, which means I'm a nutcase and should get a life.

    - How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

    pretty satisfied, as it's mainly the fun of the puzzle and manouvering positions that I do antepost for, and the bets will get bigger and hold more financial risk as NRNB and the day kicks in.

    - Where are you strong?

    The first day looks pretty good and with good luck and judgement and a bit of labour I've got in some good positions on most of the graded races on day one. Not sure how it's worked out this way. It may be that the arkle and NH chase lend themselves more to antepost betting and the tools available mean you can back every fancypants horse before debut for the supreme.

    - Where are you weak?

    Not sure weak is the best word as there is still plenty of time, and no matter how big a list of fancy prices you or I may have, it'll be wins and places that matter (unless you're laying and hedging etc, which I rarely bother with)

    - Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

    A lot more small bets (the liquidity don't allow much more) on the exchanges at wild prices this year, and although they might all fall by the wayside, a lot of them I could lay off now if I could be bothered. But I'll let them run and see how this pans out after the festival. But to be able to cover a horse at very small stakes for a decent return is helpful for sure. A fair bit of imagination is required and to get a run for your money, a bit of luck.

    - How will you be watching?

    I'll be at Cheltenham for the Tuesday as usual, causing mischief on the balcony of the Istabraq Bar (above the main entrance). Anyone fancy a pint they're very welcome (even those I've sworn at).
    The rest of week at home (pub Friday after two days recovery)

  7. #7
    Stable Fat Jockey (Moderator) ComplyOrDie's Avatar
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    - How are you feeling about the festival? -

    It's been a busy period personally and feel I haven't kept on top and made too many novicey mistakes with regards to the festival, which has given me a somewhat underwhelming feeling, unlike previous years where I have felt more in control, for many different reasons I don't feel like that this year.

    For the first time ever on the forum I feel like I've clouded my judgement too much than if I wasn't on here.

    - How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

    So-so. I feel in no mans land with plenty of races, and hoping the picture becomes clearer over the next month or so, but unlike previous years I don't have the funds to support a last hurrah even if I have got them wrong initially. This is something I will take from the festival this season. I won't be going in as early.

    - Where are you strong?

    NH Chase (although usually a bad betting race for me, so time will tell), RSA is looking good too, Mares Novice (based on the betting alone), Albert Bartlett (again, based on the current betting).

    - Where are you weak?

    Feels like every other race at the moment.

    - Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

    Went in a bit heavy too early in the 'any race' market for some, wish I waited. Also not using Bet365 (with the option of cash out), instead going for bigger prices with bookmakers without cash out (so amateur).

    - How will you be watching?

    With mates on Day 1, depends how that day goes I guess with a view to the rest of the week. Won't be attending this year though.
    Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 14th January 2020 at 01:27 PM.

  8. #8
    Professional Gum Flapper charlie's Avatar
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    - How are you feeling about the festival?

    Buzzing. Trying to reserve my excitement for after the DRF, but failing spectacularly. Not far away now!

    - How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

    Couple of bad news days or a poor DRF and lots can change, but happy so far. Invested around 90pts. Saved 20-30% of my book through B365 cash out, which has been invaluable (although I doubt it will last long). Happy with the spread of my overall positions. I have 6 market leaders all at fairly big double figure prices, and a number of fairly big double figure prices in the any race market/handicap market that are now in that 8/1 - 14/1 level.

    - Where are you strong?

    Day 1. Even now I'd be a bit dissapointed if I didn't have a profitable Champion Day.

    - Where are you weak?

    Biggest weakness. I'd have to say eczema

    The two races where I am noticeably weak is the Gold Cup & QMCC. I waited too long on the former and put all my eggs in one basket in another. Time to figure them out but their Championship races where I am weak for sure. Probably too heavily reliant on a small number of novices too.

    - Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

    Avoided doing lots of ante post doubles and trebles. Really ate into my profit last year and so far its gone well.
    Using B365 just for ante post and nothing else. Cash out works really well.

    - How will you be watching?

    At Cheltenham! Do all 4 days every year and wouldn't miss it for the world, although the rest of my group all now miss Friday and I have to say I think I've come round to the idea of 3 days there and 1 day on the settee! Far too busy on the Friday. (If ever there was an argument for a 5 day meet that's it for me, push the 20,000 or so people that don't give a shit about the racing into the Saturday)

  9. #9
    Champion Fat Jockey (Moderator) Kevloaf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by charlie View Post
    - Where are you weak?

    Biggest weakness. I'd have to say eczema
    Excellent.

  10. #10
    Professional Fat Jockey Can't Catch Me's Avatar
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    How are you feeling about the festival?

    Already on a daily countdown.... absolutely love this time of the year. DRF approaching and it feels like we've just come round the final bend and starting the home straight towards the Festival, which is undoubtedly my highlight of every year.

    - How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

    Worryingly I feel very satisfied. Don't feel like I've missed many that I wished Id already backed... just need to keep everything crossed for no disastrous injuries now.

    - Where are you strong?

    Feel particularly happy in all three novice hurdles with all of the favs at decent prices and some nice cover bets. Going to be absolutely gutted if I haven't got the AB by the balls this year. Im hopeful that just because its been a bad race antepost in previous years, it does't follow it will be this year.

    - Where are you weak?

    Haven't played the handicaps too much yet as waiting until we have more NRNB prices. Tried to stick to this last year and it definitely helped.

    - Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

    Nothing at all so far as had my best Festival yet last year. Although I've done significantly less antepost multiples as my return has been piss poor on them the past few years. Will do more the week of the Festival when everything is clearer.

    - How will you be watching?

    Will be there Monday - Saturday as I have been for the last 24 years! As much as Im already very excited, I've already got a slight fear for how I always feel when i wake up on Saturday morning after 5 days of debauchery!!

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