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State of the Nation: 2 Months to Go

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  • #31
    How are you feeling about the festival?
    Strangely not as excited as usual, it was still the first week I booked off work but I think mainly because at the moment I have no plans to actually attend (although that will no doubt change and will go at least one day) for the first time in a few years and also the jumps season itself just hasn’t seemed as exciting so far

    How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?
    About average; a few decent prices and at the moment none of them out injured which is the main thing but there’s plenty time for that!

    Where are you strong?
    Potentially the Ballymore; had a spell of doing a lot of doubles on an antepost horse plus Envoi Allen, if any of them won on the Tuesday or if he wins on the Wednesday will be potential there for a lot of decent returns

    Where are you weak?
    Potentially the Ballymore if Envoi doesn’t make the festival or they shoot for the stars and go Champion Hurdle!! Other than that usually try and get some decent runners on the Tuesday as it’s a day I usually attend; this year don’t really have anything in the Supreme unless Shiskin bolts up today or Fly Smart eventually appears and the Arkle is very similar unless Melon goes for it which it sounds very much like he won’t

    Anything you’ve done differently?
    Tried to do a few more cross sport doubles this year I.e on a Saturday instead of having 2pts on a football team I have 1pt win and 1pt double with a Cheltenham horse, has worked reasonably well to be honest, something to look at even more from the summer onwards next year with cricket bets probably

    How will you be watching?
    At the moment in the pub all 4 days but if Envoi Allen is a confirmed runner on the Wednesday will probably at least do a day trip then. Group of friends going on the Thursday so potentially then as well but it’s my least favourite day

    Comment


    • #32
      Taken me ages to get around to answering this:

      - How are you feeling about the festival?

      I am pretty active (understatement?) on here all year round and I class that as part of my enjoyment, for me it's about much more than just those 4 days...

      The weekend before, and the Monday, when I spend just every single waking second analysing, adjusting, filling in my spreadsheets, watching form over and over, listening to previews and posting on here is my favourite bit... it's the point where everything is perfect and nothing else matters.

      Overall, it's definitely not the most exciting year in terms of clashes and horses I want to watch, but that's just natural for things to go in cycles.

      - How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

      Pretty well. I'd guess more people would want to swap their ante post positions with me, than I would with them.... Gavin Lynch being the main one

      - Where are you strong?

      Done this long enough to know that this can very much blow up in your face, but I have a number of races where the current fav is in my book at over 10x the current price...on day one for example, that's true of the Supreme, Arkle and CH, making 5x the price in the NH Chase look poor

      QMCC I've got by the balls as well, loads really.

      - Where are you weak?

      In terms of strictly 'making a book' probably the Gold Cup, and I've not really got a fancy in it yet which hasn't helped.
      People may view my Bumper and Triumph positions as weak too relative to the rest of my 'book' as I don't have the current favs backed...which is fair enough.

      - Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

      Cut down on multiples would be the main one.
      Not gone too bold on any one horse - when the inevitable injuries come, there isn't a single horse that can really hurt me so far.
      Saving some money for trifecta's....

      - How will you be watching?

      Will attend Wednesday as it looks the day with the potential star (Envoi) along with Altior and Tiger Roll... I want to be part of the day if either make more history!

      Could be tempted there on the Tuesday, was going to go with Jono but he's mugged me off to go with his wife (what a sap).

      Thursday, a few mates always go up to Liverpool and watch it in the bars there (usually around Paddy's day celebrations)

      Friday at home. Always.

      Saturday, Uttoxeter

      Comment


      • #33
        How are you feeling about the festival?
        Extremely excited, its on my mind a lot. Spend much of my time reading this site. You are a good bunch lol.

        How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?
        Much smaller than most years. My wife gave birth to a baby girl in November, our first, and at nearly 9 weeks old priorities had to change for this year. I'm enjoying the build up just as much however. This is the only reason I haven't posted my own antepost diary, it wouldn't make for exciting read compared to what you lads are up to.


        Where are you strong?
        I do have some decent positions. Happy with the mares novice having Willies 2 market leaders at big prices. I've the national hunt chase looking well with Carefully selected 20s, Champagne classic 16s and early doors 33s. And that's a race I don't usually go strong on antepost. Happy with the RSA having covered Champ at double figures and BOD at big prices. I firmly believe Champ will win.
        Happy with Envoi Allen double figures any race and I've several nice doubles on Envoi Allen and Paisley park. For a while I was throwing 2 points off each winning bet onto that double and banking some then for myself.


        Where are you weak?
        At this stage I don't consider myself weak in any areas. There are several races I don't have a single bet on and I'm more than happy to wait. For instance I don't have a bet on the Gold cup. I'm sure it will be a competitive market on the day and i'm more than happy to wait.
        Different approaches for different people, I know some would be fretting at the very idea at this moment to have missed big prices in some races, but it all depends on your style of approach.


        Anything you've done differently? How's it working?
        3 things
        1) reduced my overall number of bets - baby needs come first (they aren't cheap lol).
        2) reduced my multiples big time. Had a lot of doubles, trebles and hail Marys last year. Concentrated doubles on Envoi Allen with Paisley park. Nothing else of note.
        3) avoided the triumph like the plague. Last year I got too involved trying to find the "one" and buying into what that could be. Its not my favourite race, I don't need to back many in this. Happy to wait and pull the trigger closer to the time or on the day.


        How will you be watching?
        On course Tuesday, pub Wed. Home Thurs and see how I'm feeling Friday.


        One final note i'd like to add from reading these posts. Try to enjoy the build up folks, don't fret if you think you have missed a price. Don't feel like you have to have every angle or every race covered or its all been a failure. Enjoy the racing itself and everything that goes with it. Sometimes its nice to go into the race and cheer on some of your favourite against the field. Hope that doesn't come across preachy, at the end of the day I hope we all have a brilliant festival (and profitable one to top it all off!)

        Comment


        • #34
          Congratulations KSS, very happy for you and the mrs.

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by KingSprinterSacre View Post
            [B]

            How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?
            Much smaller than most years. My wife gave birth to a baby girl in November, our first, and at nearly 9 weeks old priorities had to change for this year. I'm enjoying the build up just as much however. This is the only reason I haven't posted my own antepost diary, it wouldn't make for exciting read compared to what you lads are up to.
            Congrats KSS, I also joined the club just before Christmas I'm also in the same situation with priorities etc... which is why I used as many free bets as possible this time around

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
              Congrats KSS, I also joined the club just before Christmas I'm also in the same situation with priorities etc... which is why I used as many free bets as possible this time around
              You lads are smart timing babies before Xmas. Gives you 3/4 months of full commitment before a deserved 3/4 full days of Cheltenham!

              Comment


              • #37
                How are you feeling about the festival?
                I am as excited as ever, my favourite week of the year without doubt. My boss has managed to juggle my shifts around the festival this year (not that it would have mattered as I work in the bookies anyway) and this is the first time I've properly bet antepost for it.

                How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?
                Pretty happy to be fair, I have a lot of the favourites at double figure prices all placed with free bets. There are areas I feel are weak or where the bet looks cooked already but I have 8 weeks to fix that.

                Where are you strong?
                In terms of having a few horses in the race it is without doubt the Supreme Novices. If its a generalisation then it'd have to be the fact I have the majority of favourites at double figures, the fact they are all with free bets (ranging from £5-£20) means I only have to hit one winner for a festival profit. I'm optimistic.

                Where are you weak?
                Again its subjective as it can be seen as a positive but for the first few months building my book I was putting all my eggs in the Envoi Allen (Ballymore) basket. I've overindulged the multiples of which EA features in a significant number so if he goes elsewhere or doesn't win the Ballymore, my potential profit goes down significantly.

                Anything you've done differently? How's it working?
                As I've said, this year I've decided to put all my focus onto the festival. Any time there is a promotion, I will look to exploit it with what I believe is a solid qualifying bet, most win without giving me much of a return but the key for me is to get the free bet credited. I have accounts with most of the bookies and I have also utilised my wife's accounts where possible too. I will no doubt put a little bit of real cash down but that'll only be for daft things like placepot etc. I'll see how this year plays out but I intend to do the same again over the next 12 months rather than wasting a free bet 5 minutes after it has been credited. I'm getting more enjoyment just from having them on and watching market support for a lot of them than I ever had watching it go down in some random seller.

                How will you be watching?
                I can never usually commit to attending as it's one time where we can put in holidays (GN being the other) so it'll be a home thing for me. I could be tempted to drive down if Envoi wins the Ballymore although I can't guarantee my wife would know of my whereabouts for a few days lol.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Thanks folks and congrats CoD! Hope you are getting more sleep than me, mines a wee rascal at night lol.

                  Ha we arent so slow Charlie. All brownie points being saved until Cheltenham!

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Before giving my own response, can I just say how much I’m enjoying the forum and reading peoples’ viewpoints on NH racing and in particular the Cheltenham Festival. This thread has received a great response from members and gives us an insight into how other members think/bet. The excitement and anticipation of the great event that is Cheltenham is evident in the responses above and is contagious.

                    - How are you feeling about the festival?
                    I’m really looking forward to it and although I have very few ante post bets, I’m still very much into it and trying to analyse the championship races by watching Racing TV and reading this forum and as much racing news as possible.

                    - How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?
                    I’m a very small punter and only bet small money. The only ante post bets, without NRNB, that I have are very small ones on Sharjah for the Champion Hurdle after his first run when he was well beaten. I was hoping it was because he was in need of the run and I felt odds of around 25-1 were generous. I have a reasonable bet on Pentland Hills as well in the Champion Hurdle at 8-1.
                    Since Skybet NRNB came in on all races, I did a few life changing six and seven horse accumulators. They normally end up as losing bets but I still love doing them just in case I get them all right sometime. You have to dream – none of these are on handicaps races.

                    - Where are you strong?Where are you weak?

                    My thinking on these two questions is that I’d be only guessing with my answers. It could be the races where you’re depending on one horse only which transpire to be the strong ones with the benefit of hindsight. Having the favourites covered at higher prices than current prices might look good on paper at this point but end up being losing positions.

                    Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

                    I’ve tried not to get too entrenched with particular horses and keep an open mind until closer to the big day. I have tried not to bet ante post where NRNB is not available as it’s very frustrating when your horse doesn’t run or worse still runs in a different race.


                    - How will you be watching?
                    I have travelled on 3 occasions when it was a three day festival and I loved the experience. Gold Cup day is a no no for me though in future as it’s too busy and packed. This year, for 3 days I’ll be watching at home with my 2 lads, who are equally keen on the racing and love a punt. On the 4th day, not sure which day yet, I’ll be watching in the pub with a few mates – will try to have all my betting done before and stay away from the nearby bookies when under the influence
                    My strategy is to have decent bets on the non-handicap races and I never study the handicaps as I find them too difficult. Sometimes, on the Betfair exchanges I cover the biggest outsiders in a handicap maybe up to half the field with a set small bet on each horse.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      How are you feeling about the Festival? Third year of taking this antepost malarkey seriously and still finding it highly enjoyable

                      How do you feel your current position is stacking up? I mirror my bets exactly for my best mate that I go with and have access to all his accounts as a result. I give him a regular mark out of 10 update. Before Xmas I said around 8.5, after a torrid festive period down to 6 and now I’d say back up to a 7/10. Losing a 365 account half way through the season was tough but a bit more liquidity on Betfair this year to lay bad bets off and a lot less non runners at this stage is meaning I’m hanging in there. On the non-runners I’m fully bracing myself for a spate over the next few weeks

                      Where are you strong, where are you weak? National Hunt Chase will be pivotal to my week, struggling with the Arkle for the second season running

                      Anything you are doing differently, is it working? Going to have a better balance this year between antepost and NRNB and between championship races and handicaps, still significantly skewed in favour of the latter

                      How will you be watching? Definitely going Tuesday and Wednesday, depending on how the book looks the weekend before might also go Thursday. Part of the deal with my mate is that he pays for the tickets and drinks

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        I forgot to mention one thing I've got in the discipline this year is doing more ew betting. I usually end up with a large number of places, but recently I'd tried to take my stake size up and going win only. Just hasn't worked for me. Feel much better doing 1pt each way for stuff over 16/1 as I feel while it might take the top off my winnings, I think overall yield will be better with my historic record

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          How are you feeling about the festival?

                          From October, there isn’t a day that goes by when I don’t think about it… I just adore it, I almost love this stage of the year as much as the actual racing because of the research, the forums, preview nights, opinions etc in fact I get sadder the closer it gets because it means it’ll be over soon


                          How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

                          Im going to echo what Kev said, im on a couple at nice prices considering what their price is now, but it means nothing until they’ve crossed the line (preferably 1st)


                          Where are you strong? Where are you weak?

                          Id like to think ive backed the winner of all the races tbh otherwise what’s the point ��


                          Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

                          Nope, im stupid as I love doing small ante post multiples (lucky 15’s etc) and I arrange them on a colour coded spreadsheet (will be printed & laminated to protect against spillage) so I know the bet type, which bookie, what race and the price. I say stupid because (for example) I’ll probably have backed 9 in the supreme (and no doubt only 8 will run lol) I know that’s not smart but im trigger happy and I get carried away.

                          I save an amount each month and I know that’s ‘dead money’ and so when October/November comes out ill back what I fancy.


                          How will you be watching?

                          Get to spend it with good friends (shout out DH and the Murphy Bros), we’ll have joint multis going and the pub Friday is always great.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by robith View Post
                            I forgot to mention one thing I've got in the discipline this year is doing more ew betting. I usually end up with a large number of places, but recently I'd tried to take my stake size up and going win only. Just hasn't worked for me. Feel much better doing 1pt each way for stuff over 16/1 as I feel while it might take the top off my winnings, I think overall yield will be better with my historic record
                            I'm still more of an e/w than a win only kind of punter.

                            Not getting paid out when you are 'good' enough to get one in the first 3 would get on my nerves.

                            IF you can find horses to hit the frame, you're more likely to find winners too surely... nobody wants a whole string of seconds and nothing to show for it.... and I don't believe it affects my bottom line.


                            I could probably work that out over the last 9 years actually. I'm not going too, but I could

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              - How are you feeling about the festival?

                              Most exciting sporting event of the year and walking in through turnstiles on day 1 still feels very special.....and i have been going for well over 20 years and am now a member who goes a fair bit......but The Festival is special....and day 1 is special!

                              Its also a big social thing as stay in a 5-bed house backing on to course (crazy lucky or what) with close friends. Even when i lived in the US, i still always came back for this.


                              - How do you feel your current positions are stacking up?

                              Last year was my first ante-post and was awesome, thanks to the contributions on here! Have usually done ok as i think over time you learn the festival form and types who win more at Festival.......but ante-post is much more exciting and a great way to get into the form all season

                              Overall, feel pretty confident will be up again......how much depends on how many of the bigger positions come off....but its about the sport to me that matters more.....sharing in the magic of days like Thurs last year and seeing my fav horse scoot away with most impressive win of the week


                              - Where are you strong?

                              Tues prob looks strongest book with most races well covered and including.... Abacadabras at avg 30s, Notebook at 50s, Epatante at 33s, Honetsuckle at 15-2 and good prices on 4-miler too

                              Albert Bartlett (believe it or not!)....my spuds book is awesome....Thyme Hills 25s, Latest Exhibition 66s, Fury Road 40s and others

                              I have plenty of doubles involving the Mighty One on Weds of course !!!


                              - Where are you weak?

                              The Marsh (or JLT)......the race seems all over the place, apart from Faugheen, which thankfully i have a decent price on. I have so many probably dead bets and this is a race that i will have to re-think next year maybe

                              The Bumper.....my nightmare.....last year was only my third ever winner.....and it is not for the want of trying....i usually back loads of horses trailing in nowhere

                              Gold Cup - don't have Kemboy or Clan Des Obeaux in book....apart from in long-priced doubles with others to try and get them cheaply....though am not convinced either are really festival horses i would normally back

                              Handicaps......prefer to start my book NRNB....a learning from last year and area did less well in


                              - Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

                              Trying lots more ante-post doubles.....lots are dead.....but i prefer the over bet approach anyway (more fun!)....but some good-looking ones left, so will be a lesson this year......one thing i have been learning from Kev and others is linking doubles through form

                              Also had bigger stakes on some of the long-priced ones this year and so a few of above could really make the week look nice


                              - How will you be watching?

                              Racing post and binocs in hand in same place stand most years.....then re-watching races that i enjoyed most repeatedly for months to come

                              And as well as my bets.....hope there are more amazing moments that make us feel so proud of our sport (every friend that ever joins us in the house, always comes back)

                              Things i would love to see this year for the sport.....
                              - no fatal falls (Fri last year was my worst at festival ever i think...was low all day)
                              - Rachel to be top jockey....or win one of big 4 races (quite likely and would make for amazing, positive headlines)
                              - some of smaller trainers to win races (been to several yards over past few years and know it means so much to them)
                              - The mighty one to scoot 20 lengths clear again and scare the life out of bookies for the National
                              Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by TigerRolllllll View Post

                                - Anything you've done differently? How's it working?

                                Trying lots more ante-post doubles.....lots are dead.....but i prefer the over bet approach anyway (more fun!)....but some good-looking ones left, so will be a lesson this year......one thing i have been learning from Kev and others is linking doubles through form


                                l
                                Was reading that whole post thinking, what a cracking set of bets and this guy seems like a top bloke and THEN you complimented me, so you're definitely on the list of people that deserve a profile picture.... I'm guessing Tiger Roll , any in particular that you want? If you could copy and paste a link to a google image that'd be great

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