Originally posted by Saxon Warrior
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The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
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Tronador is entered in a 2M2F all-aged Novice hurdle on Saturday, the first race at Navan, 12.45pm.
This is the identical path to that taken by the owner/trainer connections with Veneer of Charm in 2018 prior to him winning the Boodles/Fred Winter by 3 lengths.
VOC started at 5/1 for the race in 2018 and finished 7th, thus ensuring a low-ish handicap mark, against older more experienced novices (rather than staying in juvenile company). RidersontheStorm won that race btw.
This is looking more and more like a plan to get Tronador to the Boodles, and well weighted. I am on already, but at 20/1 I am now likely to go in again or add him into some small stake multis."Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".
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Originally posted by Can't Catch Me View PostI posted after the race I thought he might get 140. Don't think its unduly harsh tbh. He's beaten a consistent 128 horse 7 lengths on the steel. 138 was surely the very best they could have hoped for.
Don't think its a given they will go Triumph but suppose the next run will be key.
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Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View PostTronador is entered in a 2M2F all-aged Novice hurdle on Saturday, the first race at Navan, 12.45pm.
This is the identical path to that taken by the owner/trainer connections with Veneer of Charm in 2018 prior to him winning the Boodles/Fred Winter by 3 lengths.
VOC started at 5/1 for the race in 2018 and finished 7th, thus ensuring a low-ish handicap mark, against older more experienced novices (rather than staying in juvenile company). RidersontheStorm won that race btw.
This is looking more and more like a plan to get Tronador to the Boodles, and well weighted. I am on already, but at 20/1 I am now likely to go in again or add him into some small stake multis.
The angle is fantastic, well done to Liam and yourself for highlighting it.
In a usually very difficult handicap it's a really nice angle in to the race.
What I don't want to do, is back a horse at 20/1 that might be bigger NTO as we're all pretty much convinced he's NO CHANCE of winning on his next run (and if he did, mark blown anyway)....
So, what do we think.... right to hold off (having missed those 33/1 prices)....?
Or are the lurkers/bookies already rubbing their hands together and I'll never see bigger than the 20/1 right now?
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostNow, how likely is it that this is a bigger price after that race?
The angle is fantastic, well done to Liam and yourself for highlighting it.
In a usually very difficult handicap it's a really nice angle in to the race.
What I don't want to do, is back a horse at 20/1 that might be bigger NTO as we're all pretty much convinced he's NO CHANCE of winning on his next run (and if he did, mark blown anyway)....
So, what do we think.... right to hold off (having missed those 33/1 prices)....?
Or are the lurkers/bookies already rubbing their hands together and I'll never see bigger than the 20/1 right now?
If they run him on Saturday it will be the first time he will run on heavy ground
No surprise to see him trail in near the back of the field
Don’t think there will be a major reaction from the bookies though
I am on at 33s and hope he runs a decent race to finish 4th or 5th
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No, I'll do half stake now at 20/1 just in case I suppose.
I'm hoping for a bigger price somewhere, 25/1 I'll accept.
I should probably hold off, just don't like that he's 14s elsewhere.
No, I will, 5 places, 20/1 - 0.5 pts e/w for now.
Will add more if things go as planned.
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostNow, how likely is it that this is a bigger price after that race?
The angle is fantastic, well done to Liam and yourself for highlighting it.
In a usually very difficult handicap it's a really nice angle in to the race.
What I don't want to do, is back a horse at 20/1 that might be bigger NTO as we're all pretty much convinced he's NO CHANCE of winning on his next run (and if he did, mark blown anyway)....
So, what do we think.... right to hold off (having missed those 33/1 prices)....?
Or are the lurkers/bookies already rubbing their hands together and I'll never see bigger than the 20/1 right now?"Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".
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Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View PostTake the 20’s in a double with a shortie tomorrow (Shishkin perhaps) and see if you can get your 33/1. Bit more of a gamble, I know, but if price is your baby, then you may have to feed it a bit to get up to 33’s.
Good practice for when I can't just jump between bookies offering best price too... have to deal with missing prices.
0.5 pts e/w will do for now. Well dopne on the 33/1 - if I'd have seen the race in time I'd have backed.
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostHaven't looked in depth enough at tomorrows racing to risk a roll up unfortunately. Got a great record with them (roll ups) so far and it's not from trying to force a price.
Good practice for when I can't just jump between bookies offering best price too... have to deal with missing prices.
0.5 pts e/w will do for now. Well dopne on the 33/1 - if I'd have seen the race in time I'd have backed.
You have to ditch the “didn’t get on at the best price” nonsense Kev, it’s present value that matters more.
Those that have bigger prices usually took more risk before the form of horses is shown and understood.
For me 20/1 for Tronador on what I know now, is a very good price. Better that the 16s I got for BOO in this race last year."Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".
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Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View PostNo one was worried about Sire Du Berlais or The Storyteller getting beat in there handicap races and going out in price!
You have to ditch the “didn’t get on at the best price” nonsense Kev, it’s present value that matters more.
Those that have bigger prices usually took more risk before the form of horses is shown and understood.
For me 20/1 for Tronador on what I know now, is a very good price. Better that the 16s I got for BOO in this race last year.
Knowing I thought a horse was value at 33/1, doesn't mean when the bookies react and cut it to 20/1 I should still think it's value?
You getting on as the horse crosses the line is just circumstance, I clearly stated I wanted to do that but didn't get chance - doesn't mean 20/1 is now value. It means 33/1 was and they reacted....
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostI am perfectly aware of how present value works. If you read my post, am I not clearly debating that exact point... at whether I think it's current value now.
Knowing I thought a horse was value at 33/1, doesn't mean when the bookies react and cut it to 20/1 I should still think it's value?
You getting on as the horse crosses the line is just circumstance, I clearly stated I wanted to do that but didn't get chance - doesn't mean 20/1 is now value. It means 33/1 was and they reacted...."Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".
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Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostAs per post #37, I half agreed - put a half stake bet on"Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".
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Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View PostHis run on saturday should reveal his handicap rating on Monday. Interesting that they are following almistvidentical path as Veneer if Charm, including a really quick third run back after a decent second run.
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