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NAUTICAL TWIGHLIGHT won a very weak class 5 hcap chase over CD on heavy in early November off 102 with todays 10lb claimer on.
The King stable was in decent form then but all 8 runeners in the last 14 days were unplaced and its been 30 days since they last had a winner.
There record in Dec 16, Dec 17, Dec 18 and so far in December 2019 is just 3 winners from 89 runners and there horses rarely run well in December.
Has a 7lb higher mark and is racing in grade 4. The mare has a big weight on her back and her inexperienced jockey has a tough task on his hands. I dont expect this thing to be involved in the finish and looks an awful favourite.
DOUBLE COURT looks to be too high in the handicap and is unlikely to produce the lifetime best needed to win today on heavy ground. Best on good and gd/sft ground and needs handicap mark to drop. This race is a good start for getting his mark dropped and will most likely be pulled up tailed off some way from home under a huge weight of 12-1 on unsuitable ground.
INDIAN NATIVEs trainer is in hot form currently with 2 wins from his last 5 runners. She handles heavy and is thrown in on her chase form.
She has had 6 chase starts running off marls between 111 and 115 and putting in some decent performances.
Been well beat in last 4 races over hurdles but chase mark has dropped and can now run off 95 a massive 16lb below her last chase run. She looks thrown in here and has a good chance to win her 1st chase.
TOP DECISION was pulled up and unplaced in his forst 2 hirdles runs of last season before winning on his 3rd run from a mark of 97.
He was pulled up and unplaced in his first 2 races of this season over fences but races off 97 here and should run a big race today.
His chase form is better than it looks as he travelled and jumped well last time and took the lead 4 from home but didnt stay the trip. Now back at his ideal trip and from the same mark as his hurdles win he should run a big race and can fight out the finish with Indian Native. The pair are likely to pull a fair way clear from the other 2.
Nautical twighlight 6/4 - 13/8
Double Court 100/30 -6/1
Indian Native 7/2 - 15/8
Top Decision 13/2 -4/1
The market after being so blatantly wrong this morning is correcting itself and the team could easily be on the fav and the 2nd fav come start time. As the money has correctly come for both INDIAN NATIVE and the likliest winner TOP DECISION.
This pair should be a fence clear of the other pair come 2 out. Wheelbarrows are ready.
I dont acknowledge bumpers. Not proper races though I can reveal that The Legend Elegant Escape will win the gold cup in March and Dazzling Danny Whizbang will win the RSA.
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